A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[moonslav59]

The 2026 Sox All IL, DFA'd, Traded Away & AAA Team:

SP: Crochet, Early, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Uberstine

RP: Slaten, Guerrero, Watson, Coulombe, Kelly, Samaniego, Rivera

C: Narvaez & Rodgers

1B: Casas

2B: Mead & Rodgers

3B: Seigler & Mayer 

SS: Arias & Cheng

LF: Yoshida

CF: Rafaela

RF: Ward

DH: Romy

 

[moonslav59]

I'm not one to think looking ahead at 2027 is doin a disservice to the 2026 team or jinxing us in any way. I like our chances this year, based on our top 6-8 pitchers when the playoffs often see much less IP from the #9-13 pitchers.

That being said, I'm stoked about our 2027 chances, but knowing full well, injuries are a certainty, and who gets injured can easily shift my positions of extreme optimism to something less or much less. There are three major reasons for my high level of optimism:

1. The players we lose or may lose to free agency are significant, but not as bad as other teams and recent Sox off seasons. The biggie is Gray, but he may return. IKF is a decent role player but easily replaceable, even from within the system. Sandoval appears to be addition by subtraction, but our minor league SP'er depth took a big hit over the last year. Our everyday player core of 9-12 players all return. One could conclude that Crochet might replace Gray seamlessly- leaving no urgent need to replace anyone we lose. One could also think Crochet, Houck, Crawford + Oviedo (Bello?) can improve on Gray + Sandoval.

_________________________

2. The quality of our starting 9, rotation and top 4-5 RP'ers already on the roster:

C Rutschman

1B Contreras

2B Mead

3B Durbin

SS Arias (Story)

LF Anthony

CF Rafaela

RF Abreu

DH Yoshida

SP: Crochet, Tolle, Suarez, Bennett, Bello

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Slaten (Houck/Crawford)

That's a very solid 18 players.

_________________________

3. The bench and AAA/AA depth:

Our bench carried us for much of 2026, especially the middle IF, rotation and pen depth. Despite losing IKF, Gray and Sandoval, I think the bench will be as strong or stronger next year, but that depends on how many are needed to start due to injuries to the solid 18 posted above. Here is how I see our 2027 depth chart, assuming the 18 listed above are the major slots filled:

C: Wong, Gasper (Jo Garcia, Baez, H White, GRod, Rosario) This is not a strength area, but maybe a minor leaguer steps it up in '27)

1B: Mead, Casas, Romy, Gasper, Sogard (Brannon/Gonzales) looks about as deep as any MLB team has.

2B: Story, Sogard, Romy, Seigler, Monasterio, Cheng (Rodgers, McDonough, Romero, Cespedes M White) is again among the top depth in MLB at 2B.

3B: Story, Monasterio, Cheng, Sogard, Seigler (Romero, Winnay) is pretty good, but probably not if needed for 80+ games)

SS: Story, Monasterio, Cheng, Sogard is pretty good.

OF: Duran, Yoshida, Jones, White & maybe Mead. (Campbell, Eaton, Gonzales, Ward) Pretty good.

DH: Duran, Romy, Gasper, Jones, Sogard.... (Brannon, Jo Garcia, Cespedes) Pretty good

SP: Houck, Crawford, Oviedo is not deep but could be very good. (Paez, Wehunt, Holobetz, Ziehl, Burgos is not great nor 11-12 deep)

RP: Guerrero, Weissert, Moran, Kelly (Mullins, Bastardo, Gamboa, Samaniego, Rivera, Olds, Futrell, Monegor) looks decent but will probably be bolstered by a signing or trade.

Health will be a major factor, of course, and we will go into the season with significant questions about some major pieces: Crochet, Houck, Crawford and to some extent Anthony, AR, Slaten and lesser pieces like Oviedo & Casas and high salaried guys like Story & Yoshida and even Duran.

I think our 2027 roster has an overall great foundation and depth.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not one to think looking ahead at 2027 is doin a disservice to the 2026 team or jinxing us in any way.

Just jinxed the 2027 CBA. Unbelievable. 

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Just jinxed the 2027 CBA. Unbelievable. 

Nope.

There will be no shutdown, and if there is, no longer than April missed.

[vegasbob]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nope.

There will be no shutdown, and if there is, no longer than April missed.

I actually hope Moon is correct so we can enjoy what can be a really good 2027 team, but I will officially offer Moon and anyone else a bet for a bunch of bananas that league regular season games do not begin until on or after May 1, 2027

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

I actually hope Moon is correct so we can enjoy what can be a really good 2027 team, but I will officially offer Moon and anyone else a bet for a bunch of bananas that league regular season games do not begin until on or after May 1, 2027

I think May 1st is about the line.

If I were a betting man, I'd take the under on May 15th,

Practice games will likely be underway before May 1st.

[mvp 78]

They are lucky that Story came back swinging.  

[moonslav59]

Scary stuff.

Selecting 22 games was for making a point, but the point has merit.

We can't win without some improved hitting. Period.

We have some capable players. I'm sure Fred, will agree, once Ceddanne returns our offense should be fine.

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Scary stuff.

Selecting 22 games was for making a point, but the point has merit.

We can't win without some improved hitting. Period.

We have some capable players. I'm sure Fred, will agree, once Ceddanne returns our offense should be fine.

A 3 week sample seems fine to me. It's how they are playing right now. It can certainly change, which is what Stats alludes to. 

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

A 3 week sample seems fine to me. It's how they are playing right now. It can certainly change, which is what Stats alludes to. 

3 weeks is sketchy, to me, and specifically choosing that period over 2 or 4 weeks is only dont to further a point being made.

I'm not saying it's wrong, or that 3 week samples are not significant. I cherry-pick time frames as much as anyone.

[moonslav59]

We've used 22 pitchers in relief this year, not counting Monasterio. Brez missed on a few, but some real no names have done well, as well as some we knew about and had various levels of confidence in by opening day.

Although OPS Against is not the be-all-end-all stat, it's better than ERA for relievers. Here is one way to group the 22:

OPSA Under 50 PAs Against:

7 mostly bad outcomes...

.200 Rivera (only 10 PAs and on IL)

.713 Anderson (32 & DFA'd- added by MIN)

1.013 Kahnle (43)

1.064 Uberstine (11)

1.100 Martinez (6)

1.378 Oviedo (18)

2.500 La Sorsa (2)

________________

2 pretty bad outcomes with significant sample sizes:

.629 Coulombe (96- pretty good number but was cut)

.752 Watson (240- Let go after being one of the leaders in RP IP at the time.)

________________

5 Mehs...

.614 Kelly (71- been on IL almost all year)

.633 Samaniego (81-Couldn't earn a second look)

.698 Burgos (69- so-so)

.707 Weissert (241- not bad for a low leverage guy)

.736 Slaten (137- on IL a few times)

_________________

The top 8

.499 Whitlock (187-He's been a rock.)

.547 Bello (252-The shocking pen boost. Most PA's)

.547 Moran (246- Better number than he's really been/ 2nd most PAs)

.577 Miller (63- Has been a major deadline boost.)

.583 Chapman (210- Nobody expected a 2025 redux, but wow!)

.607 T Guerrero (159- Gem in the rough)

.624 Olds (61- surprisingly good)

.639 Gamboa (106- 9th most PA Against in a short time)

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Wild Card scenario, Boston at New York. Does Duran rides the pine, even vs. Schlittler, who he's got 2 hits off (tied for team lead)? 

If not, can the roster carry 14 position players? 2 catchers, a starting infield, IKF utility makes 7... the Gasper-Jones DH platoon makes 9... Anthony-Rafaela-Abreu-Duran-Eaton make 14. 

Duran is the dilemma -- if he starts vs. a righty then he has to be in LF, with Anthony DH. That leaves Jones to PH for Jarren vs a lefty but not to play D -- that's why Eaton has to make the roster. Then we'd still have Gasper to PH for Nate vs. a righty.

Remember, if Anthony DHs, he can't play defense later or we lose the DH. Maybe if Roman starts in LF, Duran comes off the bench later to pinch-run in a close game and becomes the defensive replacement in left. But Eaton could do both of those too...

 

[notin]

On 9/16/2026 at 2:17 PM, moonslav59 said:

I think May 1st is about the line.

If I were a betting man, I'd take the under on May 15th,

Practice games will likely be underway before May 1st.

Labor negotiations haven’t caused a single regular season MLB game to be cancelled since 1995.  Yet every 6 years we do this “season is in jeopardy” song and dance.

Not worrying about it until March at the earliest…

 

[notin]

58 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Wild Card scenario, Boston at New York. Does Duran rides the pine, even vs. Schlittler, who he's got 2 hits off (tied for team lead)? 

If not, can the roster carry 14 position players? 2 catchers, a starting infield, IKF utility makes 7... the Gasper-Jones DH platoon makes 9... Anthony-Rafaela-Abreu-Duran-Eaton make 14. 

Duran is the dilemma -- if he starts vs. a righty then he has to be in LF, with Anthony DH. That leaves Jones to PH for Jarren vs a lefty but not to play D -- that's why Eaton has to make the roster. Then we'd still have Gasper to PH for Nate vs. a righty.

Remember, if Anthony DHs, he can't play defense later or we lose the DH. Maybe if Roman starts in LF, Duran comes off the bench later to pinch-run in a close game and becomes the defensive replacement in left. But Eaton could do both of those too...

 

Duran to the bench to fill the Dave Robert’s Role.  What’s he done to earn postseason starts?  Had two career hits off Schlittler? Big deal…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

43 minutes ago, notin said:

Duran to the bench to fill the Dave Robert’s Role.  What’s he done to earn postseason starts?  Had two career hits off Schlittler? Big deal…

Small deal, but they both came this season, tying him for the pitiful team lead vs. a native New Englander who doesn't seem to understand he won't always be young and strong enough to beat Boston and mock an entire region for the rest of his life.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Small deal, but they both came this season, tying him for the pitiful team lead vs. a native New Englander who doesn't seem to understand he won't always be young and strong enough to beat Boston and mock an entire region for the rest of his life.

I still wouldn’t start Duran.  He hasn’t earned it this year. He should be on the bench along with Jones (DH platoon with Gasper), Sogard, and Wong.  If you insist Sogard should start over IKF, I would concede that small point.  The big point is - Duran to the bench…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Labor negotiations haven’t caused a single regular season MLB game to be cancelled since 1995.  Yet every 6 years we do this “season is in jeopardy” song and dance.

Not worrying about it until March at the earliest…

 

Too much money is at stake to miss any time at all, but greed can cause people to do dumb things.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Duran to the bench to fill the Dave Robert’s Role.  What’s he done to earn postseason starts?  Had two career hits off Schlittler? Big deal…

Duran's leash is so long, it's circled the globe.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I still wouldn’t start Duran.  He hasn’t earned it this year. He should be on the bench along with Jones (DH platoon with Gasper), Sogard, and Wong.  If you insist Sogard should start over IKF, I would concede that small point.  The big point is - Duran to the bench…

Had Rafaela & Yoshida not been hurt, maybe they'd have benched Duran.

To me, Gasper at DH vs RHPs and Anthony in LF would be the choice, but with Rafaela out, I'm not sure I can join your Braiden Ward bandwagon vs RHPs.

Is there another option?

[notin]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Had Rafaela & Yoshida not been hurt, maybe they'd have benched Duran.

To me, Gasper at DH vs RHPs and Anthony in LF would be the choice, but with Rafaela out, I'm not sure I can join your Braiden Ward bandwagon vs RHPs.

Is there another option?

If Rafaela is out, Duran probably has to start.  He is a bench player, but sometimes bench players need to start…

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

If Rafaela is out, Duran probably has to start.  He is a bench player, but sometimes bench players need to start…

I haven't heard anything positive about Ceddanne's return, but if MLB.com is correct, maybe this will be enough:

Up to 90% strength with running. Team is hopeful he will play during the final homestand. (Last updated: Sept. 18) 

[JoeBrady]

On 9/16/2026 at 12:28 PM, moonslav59 said:

That's a very solid 18 players.

Assuming everyone is okay (esp Crochet), I'd say that is about the best in the AL, conceding that others will rate the NYY over us.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Labor negotiations haven’t caused a single regular season MLB game to be cancelled since 1995.  Yet every 6 years we do this “season is in jeopardy” song and dance.

Not worrying about it until March at the earliest…

 

I don't worry about it at all.  I don't think we will miss a game, and even if we missed 2 weeks, that still leaves about 24 weeks.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

4 hours ago, notin said:

Labor negotiations haven’t caused a single regular season MLB game to be cancelled since 1995.  Yet every 6 years we do this “season is in jeopardy” song and dance.

Not worrying about it until March at the earliest…

 

It's simply millionaires going head-to-head with billionaires. Kind of like Black Friday at Tiffany's.

[moonslav59]

I'm not going to cry about the major injuries this team has faced and overcome, and certainly a Judge-less Yankee playoff team will offer Yankee fans plenty of excuse reasoning, but while the Yanks have had other key injuries, the starting pitching comp is lop-sided.

GS by slots:

31 Schlitter vs 6 Crochet

21 Cole vs 28 Gray

19 Fried vs 27 Suarez

15 Rodon vs 0 Houck

0 Schmidt vs 0 Crawford

28 Warren vs 9 Bello (not injured)

25 Weathers (on IL now) vs 12 Sandoval

14 Elm Rod, Gil, Blackburn, Yarbrough

vs

25 Tolle, 19 Bennett, 17 Early & 9 others

___________________________

Some recent Yankee numbers

ERA/FIP

5.34/5.89 Cole in last 6 games

3.20/4.33 Warren in last 8 starts (3.67 last 10)

2.40/4.06 Rodon in last 6 (5 IP/GS)

To be fair...

0.95/2.39 Schlitter in last 6

1.88/3.38 Fried last 5 games

____________________________

Some sobering numbers...

ERA- since AUG 1:

30+ IP

36 Fried

41 Schlitter

57 Tolle

58 Rodon

60 Gray

77 Warren

83 Suarez

90 Cole

125 Bennett

136 Sandoval

____________________

A more encouraging look: 40+ IP since June 25th:

53 Schlitter

63 Gray

70 Tolle

73 Weathers (IL)

88 Cole

89 Bennett

90 Suarez

106 Warren

117 Sandoval

(44 Fried in 44 IP and Bello 58 in 43 IP)

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs charted the team's impacted most by injuries, in terms of lost projected fWAR:

12.8 BOS

11.3 AZ

10.7 ATL

10.4 BAL

10.1 HOU & LAD

10.0 DET, CHC, NYM

9.7 TOR

9.4 NYY

(Rays 24th at 5.3)

Projected lost fWAR for reest of the season:

4.0 BOS

3.9 ATH

3.8 DET

3.7 NYY

3.6 CHC

3.5 SFG & TOR

3.3 AZ

2.6 BAL

2.4 MIN

2.0 TBR

 

 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

It's simply millionaires going head-to-head with billionaires. Kind of like Black Friday at Tiffany's.

Classic Americana.  780 millionaires v 30 billionaires in a cage match.

[moonslav59]

OPS by new Team Players (300+ PAs)

.905 Contreras

.867 Alonso

.851 Mead

.819 B Lowe

.811 Murakami

.808 Liam Hicks

.805 Bregman

.781 O'Hearn

.777 N Lowe

.774 Okamoto

.774 Arraez

I may have missed some...

Pitchers & Batters

fWAR

5.5 Cease

5.1 Bregman

4.6 BLowe

4.4 Alonso

4.2 Arraez

4.1 Contreras

3.7 R Suarez

3.2 Gray

3.1 Okamoto

3.0 Durbin

2.9 D May

2.8 L Hicks

2.7 N Martinez

2.6 Lambert

2.6 Arenado

2.5 Murakami

 

[moonslav59]

Sox vs RHPs: (2024-2026 added)

.919 Gasper (.766)

.878 Contreras (.824)

.875 White (35 ABs)

.790 Rutschman (.682)

.784 Seigler (.677)

.765 Anthony (.842)

.748 Abreu (.791)

.746 Rafaela (.717)

.743 Yoshida (.777)

.733 Sogard (.680)

.727 IKF (.701)

.721 Durbin (.717)

.624 Duran (.798)

.624 Wong (.641)

.616 Monasterio (.630)

.611 Story (.718)

.517 Romy (30 PAs) .637 '24-'26

__________________________________

v LHPs

1.203 Jones (.867)

.981 Contreras (.912)

.871 Abreu (.762)

.801 Rafaela (.694)

.798 Monasterio (.743)

.774 Yoshida (.591)

.766 Sogard (.774)

.737 Durbin (.728)

.732 Wong (.775)

,705 Story (.707)

.631 Duran (.633)

.618 Romy (.892)

.596 Anthony (.703)

.550 Seigler (.592)

.459 IKF (.548)

.382 White (23 ABs) .720

.247 Gasper (23) .393

.154 Rutschman (26) .755

____________________

Some conclusions:

Should never start vs 

RHPs: Romy, Monasterio, Wong 

LHPs: Gasper, Duran and maybe Seigler.

Should start vs

RHPs: Contreras, Gapser, Abreu, Anthony, Rutschman, Rafaela (Yoshida, White & Sogard)

LHPs: Contreras, Jones, Abreu, Rafaela, Durbin, Romy, Monasterio (Story, Sogard & Wong)

Suggested platoon possibilities:

DH: Gasper-Jones/Romy (but we have Yoshida and Duran)

2B: Sogard-Monasterio/Romy (but we have Mead)

C: AR & Wong

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

20 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Small deal, but they both came this season, tying him for the pitiful team lead vs. a native New Englander who doesn't seem to understand he won't always be young and strong enough to beat Boston and mock an entire region for the rest of his life.

He's a Schlit Head.