Red Sox's Craig Breslow Era Is Set to End With A Whimper

[notin]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not sure what you're basing that on, but there were many Red Sox with higher batting averages and OPSsssss.

Duran was definitely Boston's best tripler (led AL) and doubler, though.

Fair, but Duran was the best with 500 PA or more.  Short list, but that in itself could be an issue.  

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

And since Schwarber re-signed with the Phillies, as everyone expected, there was precious little he could've done.

This is an even stronger point than the one made about finding a flaw in his "5 major moves." IMO, even if we got Schwarber, it would have meant no Suarez, and would we really be much better off, even if more "balanced?" 

I don't think Schwarber was ever leaving PHI, and with DD in charge, we'd likely have had to way overbid to pry him away. The other big question was Alonso vs Contreras. Yes, we could have signed Alonso to DH and not signed Suarez, and again, we'd be more "balanced" but how much better off?

Other adds are hindsight based: Murakami, Okamoto, BLowe, Donovan or Arraez. To blast Brez for not getting any of these guys, when none of us were strongly advocating for them is not something I see as constructive criticism.

The unbalanced question is legit, though, and after missing out on Bregman (Thank God!) and Bichette (Thank God and the Holy Trinity!) he should have gotten more than Durbin.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Especially since he died in 2013….

I'd still have kicked the tires on hiring him.

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, notin said:

It would have had to be something like that.

But Duran was also the Sox best hitter last  year, and wasn’t exactly a popular target around the league.  Reportedly Craig wanted a high asking price, but that seems like an odd thing to complain about given the reactions to all Breslow’s previous trades.

Dealing Duran for a 2b, 3b or C would have been ideal, but it would have had to be done by December 10…

I've been suggesting Duran trades for years, but the argument that trading away a top 3 offensive weapon, when offense was and still is our biggest weakness made some sense, last winter. 

I expected he and Anthony would have been above average DHs and maybe as good or better than Alonso at DH. Who we could have gotten in a Duran trade, would have, in theory, tipped the balance towards Alonso being a good add, but then subtracting  Suarez makes it a close call. Trading Duran might also have saved us $8M, although that depends on who we got back. Taking his $8M and IKF's $6M plus Suarez's money, maybe Alonso plus ____ might have worked better. Not knowing the other what ifs makes this speculation.

If it was Contreras vs Alonso, I'm glad we have Willson not Pete.

The best near miss was Bregman. I was against paying even what we ended up offering, so I'm glad we did not sign him. It doesn't mean it's good news that Brez botches signings he wants, but on this one, the end result worked out, and he's been bashed for hindsight judging, so the same should be applied here. He did well not signing Breggie. Suarez is an All Star and Contreras & Gray almost made it. Let's not forget the Chapman signing and extension.

[notin]

52 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Possible, but I don’t know if Con Man was being shopped to everyone. Could have been a Brez/Bloom thing like even with Sonny Gray.

I’d be surprised if he turned down Baltimore to accept that lackluster Boston offer…

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

This is the only criticism I agree with, and quite frankly, I think everyone agreed with.  Maybe some of this is 20/20 hindsight, but it really looked like a BP of Chapman & Whitlock, which is great, and a bunch of 5/6/7th inning guys, but no strong hold guys.

OTOH, the fact that we are 3rd in ERA and 6th in OPSa suggests he might have been right.  But I still want another RP.

I think the hope was we'd use someone from our 10-11 man deep rotation to eat major pen innings. We may see Sandoval do just that within a week.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

This is an even stronger point than the one made about finding a flaw in his "5 major moves." IMO, even if we got Schwarber, it would have meant no Suarez, and would we really be much better off, even if more "balanced?" 

I may not be a stats guy, but would the Red Sox be better off with Schwarber's 30 home runs and 55 RBIs? Come on.

If we assume that would account for 55 more runs -- and I don't think any Sox fan who has suffered through this brutally inept RISP offense would consider that an exaggeration -- then Boston's average runs per game shoots from near last to close to the top of the American League (from 4.06 to 4.68).

Even if all 30 homers were solo shots, the Sox would still be above-average in runs per game! (4.39 > 4.37).

The answer to your question is yes.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not sure what you're basing that on, but there were many Red Sox with higher batting averages and OPSsssss.

Duran's offense goes beyond just his bat.

While your point about other players having better BAs and OPS, ponder this...

No Sox player with a higher OPS came within 200 PAs of Duran's 696.

Only Bregman (495) and Abreu (417) came within 350 PAs. Duran more than doubled the PAs by Romy (341), Devers (334) and Anthony (303) who all had better OPS.

XBHs:

70 Duran (695 PAs)

67 Bregman PLUS Refsnyder (704 PAs) top 2 OPS guys

60 Devers PLUS Anthony (637 PAs) #3 & #5 OPS guys

54 Story (#9) in 654 PAs

43 Romy (#4 OPS) PLUS N Lowe (#6) in 460 PAs

39 Abreu (#7) in 417 PAs (projects to less than Duran in 695 PAs)

He was also second in RBI while leading off in 70% of his starts. Before anyone should poo-poo this RBI number, consider this: OBP by our 7-8-9 slots:

7) .308

8) .271

9) .306

Duran was clearly a top 3 offensive player on the 2025 team. Counting players with 300-350 PAs as better has some merit, but Devers should not count. The other two: Romy & Roman have been on the IL, so counting them is questionable. Bregman was 4th in PAs and is gone. Story second and on the IL, plus Duran out OPS'd Story.

One could argue returning players ranked as such on offense:

T1 Abreu, Duran & Anthony

T4 Story & Romy

 T6 Rafaela & Narvaez

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I may not be a stats guy, but would the Red Sox be better off with Schwarber's 30 home runs and 55 RBIs? Come on.

Who is saying NO?

Schwarber was my first choice.

My question was "MUCH better off."

[notin]

44 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd still have kicked the tires on hiring him.

Maybe after the Zombie Apocalypse, when he should be actively looking for work…

[Old Red]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Who is saying NO?

Schwarber was my first choice.

My question was "MUCH better off."

OMG! Parsing words.🤭

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

This is an even stronger point than the one made about finding a flaw in his "5 major moves." IMO, even if we got Schwarber, it would have meant no Suarez, and would we really be much better off, even if more "balanced?" 

I don't think Schwarber was ever leaving PHI, and with DD in charge, we'd likely have had to way overbid to pry him away. The other big question was Alonso vs Contreras. Yes, we could have signed Alonso to DH and not signed Suarez, and again, we'd be more "balanced" but how much better off?

Other adds are hindsight based: Murakami, Okamoto, BLowe, Donovan or Arraez. To blast Brez for not getting any of these guys, when none of us were strongly advocating for them is not something I see as constructive criticism.

The unbalanced question is legit, though, and after missing out on Bregman (Thank God!) and Bichette (Thank God and the Holy Trinity!) he should have gotten more than Durbin.

Why do you keep harping on flaws about his 5 major moves?? The FLAW was not getting another middle of the order bat. Was then, and is now. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Maybe after the Zombie Apocalypse, when he should be actively looking for work…

Shoulda cloned him years ago.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Who is saying NO?

Schwarber was my first choice.

My question was "MUCH better off."

Nothing personal, but when I read the post it just seemed like something Breslow or Kennedy would say to defend their preseason "pivot." And the whole world knows how that turned out.

Especially with the two players mentioned: the Phillies kept Schwarber and lost Suarez, and as of today would be in the postseason; the Red Sox didn't make an offer to Schwarber but signed Suarez -- and are last place.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Nothing personal, but when I read the post it just seemed like something Breslow or Kennedy would say to defend their preseason "pivot." And the whole world knows how that turned out.

Especially with the two players mentioned: the Phillies kept Schwarber and lost Suarez, and as of today would be in the postseason; the Red Sox didn't make an offer to Schwarber but signed Suarez -- and are last place.

I have been a strong voice in saying we botched the second big bat addition, last winter. Hell, I wanted two more, besides Contreras. I also valued

I do think we'd be better with Schwarber or Alonso, instead of Suarez or Gray, but we would be feeling the effects of a lost SP'er. We're already on #10 and are going to give Sandoval a shot this week, even with Gray & Suarez.

My point was that we would not likely be "much" better. I do think we'd be better.

Unfortunately, the actual choice was between Bregman and Suarez, and we'd be worse with Bregman. After missing out on Schwarber and Alonso, Breggie and Bichette looked like the best FA options, and I think we maxed out on our major winter trades, although I was fine with trading Duran and or Mayer plus more for a big bat addition.

[UtahSox]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I have been a strong voice in saying we botched the second big bat addition, last winter. Hell, I wanted two more, besides Contreras. I also valued

I do think we'd be better with Schwarber or Alonso, instead of Suarez or Gray, but we would be feeling the effects of a lost SP'er. We're already on #10 and are going to give Sandoval a shot this week, even with Gray & Suarez.

My point was that we would not likely be "much" better. I do think we'd be better.

Unfortunately, the actual choice was between Bregman and Suarez, and we'd be worse with Bregman. After missing out on Schwarber and Alonso, Breggie and Bichette looked like the best FA options, and I think we maxed out on our major winter trades, although I was fine with trading Duran and or Mayer plus more for a big bat addition.

No way to know what would have happened with Breggy or Bichette in Boston. Maybe AB would have been doing different training with Roman, negating the injury?? Maybe they’d both have 800+ OPS with 15 HR’s each? You’ll never know. I do agree Alonso would have made us much better as a team. 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

No way to know what would have happened with Breggy or Bichette in Boston. Maybe AB would have been doing different training with Roman, negating the injury?? Maybe they’d both have 800+ OPS with 15 HR’s each? You’ll never know. I do agree Alonso would have made us much better as a team. 

I think we know a little bit.

Could we then also say no way we know what Harrison does in BOS?

Bichette was never great with the bat. Breggie was in decline buf for a couple half seasons in the last 4 years.

[notin]

16 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I may not be a stats guy, but would the Red Sox be better off with Schwarber's 30 home runs and 55 RBIs? Come on.

If we assume that would account for 55 more runs -- and I don't think any Sox fan who has suffered through this brutally inept RISP offense would consider that an exaggeration -- then Boston's average runs per game shoots from near last to close to the top of the American League (from 4.06 to 4.68).

Even if all 30 homers were solo shots, the Sox would still be above-average in runs per game! (4.39 > 4.37).

The answer to your question is yes.

Yes, we get it.  Schwarber can hit.  

Now explain how Dombrowski was going to be outbid for him…

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Yes, we get it.  Schwarber can hit.  

Now explain how Dombrowski was going to be outbid for him…

How about not even making an offer like Brez did?🤭🤭

[notin]

52 minutes ago, Old Red said:

How about not even making an offer like Brez did?🤭🤭

But then when it fails, the cry is it was only for show.  Just like with Soto…

[notin]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think we know a little bit.

Could we then also say no way we know what Harrison does in BOS?

Bichette was never great with the bat. Breggie was in decline buf for a couple half seasons in the last 4 years.

Bichette was the one guy worth signing.  First of all, he actually is a very good hitter.  Terrible fielder with no real position, but he can hit.  Plus he’s only 28, and will be a free agent for the second time this winter when he walks away from the Mets and puts himself in a battle with Jazz Chisholm for top hitter on the FA market…

[Hugh2]

Not that I want to defend Breslow but I do find it interesting that the worse parts of this roster generally all predate Breslow.  E.G. Story, Yoshida, Duran, Mayer, Bello (although he did extend him).  You could say in hindsight that he should of traded Mayer but the reality at the time was he was a highly regarded cost controlled youngster playing a position the Sox were desperately thin at. 

A lot of the guys he did pick up this past winter have all been great. 

The lone caveat to all this is Caleb Durbin, who nills that caveat with this level of play the past month. 

If Breslow had the ability to DFA Yoshida and Story but didn't that might be different.  But even then, could anyone blame him for holding onto Story who was coming off his best season in Boston and once again...playing a position the Sox were thin at? 

 

IDK, the Sox have been great lately but the hole they dug was very deep and it's still a long climb.  If we are sitting in a wild card spot at the end of the season and playing good baseball I'll still have a sour taste in my mouth from this horrific start. 

It's like cheating on your spouse and being forgiven.  Yeah, they might have "forgave you" but theres going to be a lot of mistrust that lingers for a long time.  Only a world series would get that taste out of my mouth, not even a WC birth would. 

[Hugh2]

Last month:

Durbin .965

Contreras .918

Now that's obviously cherry picking.  But the Sox are 13-9 in that time frame.  What you would expect if a team added two .900+ OPS bats. What is exactly what Breslow needed to do. 

Was the first 2 months of the season just an historically bad start, and the team is coming into their own? or are we just witnessing a blip in an otherwise horrible season, destined for last place? Time will tell.  

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, notin said:

But then when it fails, the cry is it was only for show.  Just like with Soto…

OMG NNN. There is a BIG, Big, Big difference in the money between Soto, and Flintstone Schwarber that it’s not even a close comparison. Come on Man!🙈

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

But then when it fails, the cry is it was only for show.  Just like with Soto…

Yup. No matter what happens, fault is found.

We were not getting Schwarber. We all know JH was not going to let Brez outbid DD, yet Brez gets the blame, anyway.

Just like Soto is right. We just heard the same thing on Alonso- "our offer was lame" or "just for show." The whole Bregman "botch," when had we landed him, Brez would be torn apart for spending so much on a .690 batter.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Bichette was the one guy worth signing.  First of all, he actually is a very good hitter.  Terrible fielder with no real position, but he can hit.  Plus he’s only 28, and will be a free agent for the second time this winter when he walks away from the Mets and puts himself in a battle with Jazz Chisholm for top hitter on the FA market…

Maybe good but not "very good" and so far from worth the money he makes, I'm surprised you think he'd have been a good signing. His AAV is about what we pay Gray & Contreras combined.

He was a real good hitter until age 25, and that is a strange age to decline noticeably. Injuries can be blamed to some extent, but why would we want yet another player hampered by injuries?

OPS+ 126 from ages 21-25 (to 2023)

OPS+ 103 from ages 26-28 (2024-2026) 1361 PAs is two full seasons. 15 HRs per 650 is not the power we need. Hell, Durbin gets sh*t for averaging 15 HRs per 650, and now we'd have two of 'em, one making over $40M a year. At least Bregman can field well.

I never wanted Bichette, except at maybe 1/3 or 1/4th his current contract. I'd have taken Bregman at 2/3 or 3/4 of what he got, and probably regret it, already.

Alonso might have been the most realistic and successful winter add, and it would have forced a Duran trade, which could not have hurt, either. I can see why they felt Duran/Anthony/Yoshida/Romy had DH under control, so this is hindsight and assuming a Duran trade.

Murakami or Okamoto look good in hindsight. Trading for LHB BLowe looks good in hindsight and to me in foresight, too, but the whole need a RHB prevented that- yet we got no second RHB, anyway, so there you go.

I get the argument that maybe some of these struggling players might be doing better, had they played for BOS, and Fenway can help many batters, but it's hard to expect that, especially in light of how this team has played, and the co-called "toxic environment" Brez has created. And while we're at it, how then can we assume Harrison might be gunning for a Cy Young had he remained with BOS?

[Old Red]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup. No matter what happens, fault is found.

We were not getting Schwarber. We all know JH was not going to let Brez outbid DD, yet Brez gets the blame, anyway.

Just like Soto is right. We just heard the same thing on Alonso- "our offer was lame" or "just for show." The whole Bregman "botch," when had we landed him, Brez would be torn apart for spending so much on a .690 batter.

No it’s not no matter what happens fault is found. It depends on what the turnout is, like the teams standing in the standings. How has that looked all year?  It bugs the hell out of you when Bloom, JH, or Brez gets blamed, botched, screwed up, or anything else you want to call it. That’s the way it works, and you’re not going to change that liking it, or not. In other words TDB, and cry me a river.😂😭

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe good but not "very good" and so far from worth the money he makes, I'm surprised you think he'd have been a good signing. His AAV is about what we pay Gray & Contreras combined.

He was a real good hitter until age 25, and that is a strange age to decline noticeably. Injuries can be blamed to some extent, but why would we want yet another player hampered by injuries?

OPS+ 126 from ages 21-25 (to 2023)

OPS+ 103 from ages 26-28 (2024-2026) 1361 PAs is two full seasons. 15 HRs per 650 is not the power we need. Hell, Durbin gets sh*t for averaging 15 HRs per 650, and now we'd have two of 'em, one making over $40M a year. At least Bregman can field well.

I never wanted Bichette, except at maybe 1/3 or 1/4th his current contract. I'd have taken Bregman at 2/3 or 3/4 of what he got, and probably regret it, already.

Alonso might have been the most realistic and successful winter add, and it would have forced a Duran trade, which could not have hurt, either. I can see why they felt Duran/Anthony/Yoshida/Romy had DH under control, so this is hindsight and assuming a Duran trade.

Murakami or Okamoto look good in hindsight. Trading for LHB BLowe looks good in hindsight and to me in foresight, too, but the whole need a RHB prevented that- yet we got no second RHB, anyway, so there you go.

I get the argument that maybe some of these struggling players might be doing better, had they played for BOS, and Fenway can help many batters, but it's hard to expect that, especially in light of how this team has played, and the co-called "toxic environment" Brez has created. And while we're at it, how then can we assume Harrison might be gunning for a Cy Young had he remained with BOS?

It could have been back to back to back Cy with Sale, Priester, and Harrison. I agree with you on that.👏

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

OMG NNN. There is a BIG, Big, Big difference in the money between Soto, and Flintstone Schwarber that it’s not even a close comparison. Come on Man!🙈

Breslow wasn’t going to be allowed to outbid Dombrowski.  Everyone knows it.  
 

And what everyone forgets is if the Sox landed Schwarber or Alonso, that makes it less likely the Sox get Contreras.  Philly and Baltimore were still going to make moves…

[notin]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

No it’s not no matter what happens fault is found. It depends on what the turnout is, like the teams standing in the standings. How has that looked all year?  It bugs the hell out of you when Bloom, JH, or Brez gets blamed, botched, screwed up, or anything else you want to call it. That’s the way it works, and you’re not going to change that liking it, or not. In other words TDB, and cry me a river.😂😭

See?  That’s exactly what I said people eould do when(not if) Dombrowski outbid Breslow for Schwarber.

Thanks for proving my point…