Early Trade deadline deals the selling Sox should make

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Why would you say "no (period)" and then do it?  JK I wondered that for a sec then realized No meant number.  

I would submit that based on your list, which I think was made thoughtfully and in good faith, so I will accept it....That there is a better chance than not that Duran winds up top 3.  Hes significant more durable than 2 of the guys above him.  Rafaela still needs to convince me hes become this good....But I dont hate your list....Also, I would note the drop off after 4 but before 5.

Duran is 30 at the end of the year. I don't know where he'll be playing in a few years. He already went through a big slump to start this season. If his speed or athleticism starts to dip, it's over for him. I don't think he's productive in years 4 and 5 TBH. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

also, after re-reading your post from the previous page i see that you more so said the problem with building around pitching and d to keep you afloat is the hole in said boat that is the bullpen....ANd I reframed your position as if you were implying that the problem with this team is the bullpen.  I think I inadvertently tweaked your position when I tried to reframe it, and I apologize for that.

And yes MVP, arf arf.  But again, basset hound guy, so its more of a woooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo (keeps going)

But saying all along that Breslow ignored the bullpen is still complaining that Breslow did a bad job? That's not covering for him or saying his approach was good. 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

were the sox teams that had powerhouse offenses but lacked pitching and defense this bad?

I will assume you’re successfully repressing the Butch Hobson years.  I understand and am envious…

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

But saying all along that Breslow ignored the bullpen is still complaining that Breslow did a bad job? That's not covering for him or saying his approach was good. 

I have never praised Breslow.  But I will admit, I’m jealous of his hair…

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Last year we traded Devers who had been our best offensive player of the last 3 years.  This year, the problem that Im reading about here are 1. My expectations 2. Not addressing the bullpen, 3. That we did not trade our best hitter of the last 3 years again for the second time in a row.

Again, I must ask: Am i getting trolled?

Breslow did a bad job and needed to acquire more power. The bullpen was completely ignored. Crochet is injured. Anthony is injured. Durbin stinks. Mayer should be in AAA. Duran started off this season ice cold. Story is injured unsurprisingly and was bad.  

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

I have never praised Breslow.  But I will admit, I’m jealous of his hair…

Check the flight logs to Turkey.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

I will assume you’re successfully repressing the Butch Hobson years.  I understand and am envious…

The go-go Red Sox as one local sportscaster tried to call them (Lobel? Neumy?). 

[mvp 78]

Though the Hobson Sox weren't powerhouses offensively!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bullpens always suck and sink contenders. The main reason that happened in Boston forever wasn't a lack of talent, but having starting rotations that couldn't or weren't allowed to go deep -- thus, burning out the bullpen by mid-season. 

Look at the Sox teams that won it all this century: good starting rotations and thus, at least decent bullpens, with solid set-up men and star closers. 

Breslow and Bailey should've known better. Brez was a contributor down the stretch for a World Series winner, and Bailey a two-time All-Star. Do they hate hitters so much they think any pitching staff can get them out (or is that any pitching stiff)?

Relief help is always highly-sought at every trade deadline, and there's a reason perennial contenders always load up and overpay for deep quality bullpens. But not Boston -- and it's no surprise what's the one asset always skimped on at the deadline in years the Sox fall short.

[notin]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Check the flight logs to Turkey.

????

Youre scaring me that your transition to Florida Man is nearing completion…

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

????

Youre scaring me that your transition to Florida Man is nearing completion…

Turkey is where everyone goes to get their hair transplants. Just like Brez. 

My family wants to untransition. 🙃

[notin]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Though the Hobson Sox weren't powerhouses offensively!

They had the bats to be.  Mo Vaughn, Wade Boggs, Jack Clark, Andre Dawson, rookie Gator.  They focused on offense.

Pitching? Frank Viola was a good add, but they bought into Danny Darwin abd thought John Dopson was an MLB-caliber starter…

[drewski6]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

I will assume you’re successfully repressing the Butch Hobson years.  I understand and am envious…

I just checked in 1993 we were seventh FROM THE BOTTOM in runs/game (hitting) and THIRD FROM THE TOP in RA/game (pitching /defense)....In 1994 we were like twelfth, again, from the bottom.  Thats a bottom 10 offense those 2 years averaged.... And we were like seventh from the top in RA/game. 

So I asked for examples for sox teams that were built around offense and were as bad as the team we have....

You gave me a window, and in that window - yes those teams were bad.....But they had a top 5 staff and a bottom 10 offense.

Again, dont go into the season with a bottom 10,11,12 offense.  Live in the top 10 or get these results.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

They had the bats to be.  Mo Vaughn, Wade Boggs, Jack Clark, Andre Dawson, rookie Gator.  They focused on offense.

Pitching? Frank Viola was a good add, but they bought into Danny Darwin abd thought John Dopson was an MLB-caliber starter…

Greenwell was a rookie in 1987. 

[drewski6]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

I have never praised Breslow.  But I will admit, I’m jealous of his hair…

Ive praised him.  I like how active he is. But I cant forgive how he treats people and let the offense go to s***.

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

They had the bats to be.  Mo Vaughn, Wade Boggs, Jack Clark, Andre Dawson, rookie Gator.  They focused on offense.

Pitching? Frank Viola was a good add, but they bought into Danny Darwin abd thought John Dopson was an MLB-caliber starter…

aaron sele?

[drewski6]

those teams were bottom 10 in offense , top 5 in pitching and defense and they flopped.  Much like the team that breslow built.

My frustration is the not learning our lessons.  Bottom 12 in offense? Thats a skip year.

[drewski6]

Here are the myths that have been busted open:

1. You can compete with a team built heavily around pitching and D

2. OBP yayyyyyyyyy.  (we have good obp, but singles and walks aint it)

Not trying to like come at anybody hard or be super argumentative.....Just saying.....THese are myths.  And theyve been....BUSTED!!!

This is the least shocking myth busters episode since the one that busted the myth that shaving your face makes your beard grow back thicker.

[mvp 78]

In the 3 years of Butch Hobson's reign, only 8 hitters had over 1 fWAR:

Valentin 10.1

Mo 6.2

Cooper 6

Scott Fletcher 4.5

Greenwell 3.4 (always injured at this point)

Naehring 2.5

Bruno 2.1

Boggs 1.5 (one season)

BOS 24th in wRC+ 87 '92-94

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Here are the myths that have been busted open:

1. You can compete with a team built heavily around pitching and D

2. OBP yayyyyyyyyy.  (we have good obp, but singles and walks aint it)

Not trying to like come at anybody hard or be super argumentative.....Just saying.....THese are myths.  And theyve been....BUSTED!!!

This is the least shocking myth busters episode since the one that busted the myth that shaving your face doesnt make your beard grow back thicker.

Their OBP is 15th. It's mediocre! Top 11 OBP teams are all 100 wRC+ teams or better. 

[notin]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Greenwell was a rookie in 1987. 

My bad . But that’s right.

He was on those Hobson teams…

[notin]

17 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Here are the myths that have been busted open:

1. You can compete with a team built heavily around pitching and D

2. OBP yayyyyyyyyy.  (we have good obp, but singles and walks aint it)

Not trying to like come at anybody hard or be super argumentative.....Just saying.....THese are myths.  And theyve been....BUSTED!!!

This is the least shocking myth busters episode since the one that busted the myth that shaving your face makes your beard grow back thicker.

I mean, the Sox are 29th in home runs., The teams ranked 28th and 30th are a combined 67-39.  Their combined home run total (80) is only 4 more than Houston, who is only slightly better than Boston.

Does this prove you can’t compete building around power?

Milwaukee is basically Boston wuth better OBP and a bullpen…

[drewski6]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Their OBP is 15th. It's mediocre! Top 11 OBP teams are all 100 wRC+ teams or better. 

will you meet me that obp is an important metric but its very close to equal weight to slug?

Some people think its 2x importance (obp vs slug) and thats the myth , im tyring to bust.

I wouldnt argue if someone said its like 55% -> 45%.

I just think if you arent hitting xtra base hits, a plethora of hits and singles are very unlikely to save you.  

Its similar to trying to win with pitching and defense.....Its too much pressure.....

To win with pitching and defense and walks......you need elite pitching, elite defense, and soooooo many walks.....And its just a better bet to go get some dudes who can drive the ball.

[drewski6]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

I mean, the Sox are 29th in home runs., The teams ranked 28th and 30th are a combined 67-39.  Their combined home run total (80) is only 4 more than Houston, who is only slightly better than Boston.

Does this prove you can’t compete building around power?

Milwaukee is basically Boston wuth better OBP and a bullpen…

ah, the ole Milwaukee fallback.  Not the first time Ive seen this here.

You say home runs, I say xtra base hits.  Thats a big difference.

[drewski6]

there is nothing more underrated in mlb than doubles and triples

literally nothing.  This is why OBP gets too much faith put in it.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Not kids...

No, but Durbin is in his second year.

(Abreu is a vet.)

[drewski6]

Im really not interested in the "I can find a team that was 13th in payroll in 1970 but they finished with the best record in the NL"....so this proves spending money is useless arguments.

[drewski6]

over a long term view, there is a reason ops has been king.  Because they found that obp and slug were almost equally important, and so ppl use OPS. It does have a much stronger correlation with runs than OBP along and SLUG alone.  But OBP just narrowly edged slug......But thats a zoomed out view.

In more recent, due to pitcher dominance and teams having better bullpens than theyve had (maybe not us), I would submit that slug has replaced OBP as top dog.  And by that I mean goin from like 52% OBP vs 48% slug (zoomed out view) to like 55% slug vs 45% OBP (recent years only).....

Because you just cant rely on the dudes behind you as much anymore.  So you want that double so that runner from first scores.  You dont want first and third with 2 outs and now we just need one more.  Cuz the chances of getting that one more are much lower in recent yrs vs a zoomed out view.

Also, getting the bullpen faster isnt as important as it use to be cuz science shows you wanna leave that starter in cuz hes gonna stink third time through lineup (unless hes elite)....so the value in chasing the starter has also gone down

 

[notin]

16 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

ah, the ole Milwaukee fallback.  Not the first time Ive seen this here.

You say home runs, I say xtra base hits.  Thats a big difference.

Milwaukee is 28th in SLG.  Boston is 24th. 
 

Milwaukee has 130 XBH,  Boston has 145…