Red Sox Ace Garrett Crochet Heads To Injured List With Shoulder Inflammation

[JoeBrady]

55 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

I know Adames and Chapman would have some inherent risk, I think it creates an opportunity for us to improve offensively in the short term and over the next 2 to 3 years. Is there a risk absolutely….. does the tail end of those those contracts look good? I don’t know probably not..  I’m not even in love with either of those players. I just think you gotta make a move, and those are the type of players/ contracts you’re gonna have to get a little uncomfortable taking on.

I agree with all this.  My analysis takes into account the standard aging declines.  And the cost is not cheap, but after including Story and Yoshida, it is not overly expensive.  And like you said, I'm not in love with these two players, though Chapman was a guy we should've pursued at one point.

But mostly, this is a team that is primed for a move.  Assuming Crochet returns, this is probably the best rotation we've ever had.  We have to support them, no doubt in my mind.

[drewski6]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Do non Sox fans see the Sox as being "frugal" and "cheap?"

Most teams spend less or way less.

Hardly any teams spent more new money in the last two years than the Sox, including extensions and deals like Buehler's.

My Yankees fan friends point to the lack of deadline action.  More like an inability to close deals or go get the guy.  I told my Yankee fans we could be good this year with a couple of moves this offseason and they laughed at me and I look like a fool.

[drewski6]

29 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

In a decidedly non-scientific analysis, I took a look at all the players from 2025, with an fWAR of 2.0 or higher, age 33-36.  There were 11 players.  Only 2 had improvements in their wRC+, while 9 declined.  The two that improved, Diaz and Contreras, improved by 8 points each.  The 9 that declined had declines that were much, much higher.

This doesnt bode well for Contreras going forward.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

This doesnt bode well for Contreras going forward.

Do they have him on a long term contract or just next season? 

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Do they have him on a long term contract or just next season? 

Im not knocking the deal to get Contreras, just that as bad as our offense has been: a) one of our best bats is up there in years and b) we dont have to hit against our pitching, instead its a series of 5-10 ERA pitchers who we make look sub 3 ERA guys time and time again.

Contreras age is why we were able to get him.  Its worked out for sure.  But hes probably not going to stay at this level for long.

[mvp 78]

Also, is this analysis (or lack thereof) sticking a fork in Aaron Judge (age 34)? 

[JoeBrady]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Angels really didn't sign that many great players. They had Trout, Ohtani and Rendon. Rendon stunk. They didn't surround those hitters with ANY pitchers. Before Rendon, they had Pujols, but no pitchers to go with him and Trout. The last time they signed a significant pitcher was 2012 when they signed CJ Wilson for 5/77.5. 

They acquired Wells (32), Hamilton (32), Pujols (32), Upton (30), Cozart (32), and Rendon (30).  At those ages, you should expect very few good seasons.  From 2025, the numbers of players with 2+ fWAR, by age:

• 33  5
• 34  3
• 35  3
• 36  0
• 37  0

 

[mvp 78]

Just now, drewski6 said:

Im not knocking the deal to get Contreras, just that as bad as our offense has been: a) one of our best bats is up there in years and b) we dont have to hit against our pitching, instead its a series of 5-10 ERA pitchers who we make look sub 3 ERA guys time and time again.

Contreras age is why we were able to get him.  Its worked out for sure.  But hes probably not going to stay at this level for long.

They don't need it to. Just this year and next. Even if it falls off slightly next season, he'll still probably be a top of the order bat. 

For example, the analysis includes Judge "declining" from a career high of 220 to falling to a pathetic 204! 

[JoeBrady]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Contreras age is why we were able to get him.  Its worked out for sure.  But hes probably not going to stay at this level for long.

We are only committed for one more year.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Also, is this analysis (or lack thereof) sticking a fork in Aaron Judge (age 34)? 

If the Yankees were in last place, they maybe would consider trading Aaron Judge.  

Im not sure who is saying Contreras is done.  When I pointed out his age, Im saying that our offense could get worse as easily as it could get better.  Cuz Cedanne might fall back to .700 OPS and Contreras age could cause him to wear as the season progresses.

My point isnt that I hate Contreras or the move, its that Im not sure we are going to turn it around in time for Contreras to be contributing in a postseason capacity.

If you pick up a 34 yr old for 2 yrs and miss the playoffs both years.....Is more my point.

[JoeBrady]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Also, is this analysis (or lack thereof) sticking a fork in Aaron Judge (age 34)? 

Again, using a sample size of 1, with a 1st ballot HOF, does affect my analysis whatsoever.  But it is worth noting that his wRC+ has fallen from 220 to 204 to 171 over the past two years.  So even HOF players will get old and decline.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

They don't need it to. Just this year and next. Even if it falls off slightly next season, he'll still probably be a top of the order bat. 

For example, the analysis includes Judge "declining" from a career high of 220 to falling to a pathetic 204! 

But they dont have money coming off the books after this year, Im sure the next FA class is lackluster and Im not sure how they get good enough quick enough.

I would argue they have a 25% of making the playoffs this year and 33% next year.

If Contreras continues to do what he has done this year all year, and slightly falls off next year but still be very good .....Good on him.  Thats great.  Not saying he'll hurt the team next year.  But Im saying its a little lucky that hes fought off father time like this.  Look at Joe Bradys analysis hes like the only player improving older than 32.  Theres some luck in that.  And hes really helped.

so all the ppl screaming about the terrible luck we've had this year......

[JoeBrady]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

For example, the analysis includes Judge "declining" from a career high of 220 to falling to a pathetic 204! 

The idea behind aging isn't that everyone stops playing.  It is that they decline.  I'd gladly make two serious wagers.

• First is that Judge's production is worse in two years.
• Second is that Judge's production in two years is still very good.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

They acquired Wells (32), Hamilton (32), Pujols (32), Upton (30), Cozart (32), and Rendon (30).  At those ages, you should expect very few good seasons.  From 2025, the numbers of players with 2+ fWAR, by age:

• 33  5
• 34  3
• 35  3
• 36  0
• 37  0

 

Wells - 2011

Hamilton - 2012

Pujols - 2011 

Upton - 2017

Cozart - 2018

Rendon - 2019

You can't deride the entirety of FA based on how terribly the Angels are run. That's like saying "I'm never going to eat another slice of pizza ever again" after only trying Cici's Pizza. 

[JoeBrady]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I would argue they have a 25% of making the playoffs this year and 33% next year.

You seem like an honorable guy, so I'll take that bet I expect you'll regret.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If the Yankees were in last place, they maybe would consider trading Aaron Judge.  

Im not sure who is saying Contreras is done.  When I pointed out his age, Im saying that our offense could get worse as easily as it could get better.  Cuz Cedanne might fall back to .700 OPS and Contreras age could cause him to wear as the season progresses.

My point isnt that I hate Contreras or the move, its that Im not sure we are going to turn it around in time for Contreras to be contributing in a postseason capacity.

If you pick up a 34 yr old for 2 yrs and miss the playoffs both years.....Is more my point.

Who cares if Contreras doesn't contribute to a postseason run? They need to have a plan to replace him whether they make the playoffs or not. It's not like there is a window that closes after 2027.

[JoeBrady]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Wells - 2011

Hamilton - 2012

Pujols - 2011 

Upton - 2017

Cozart - 2018

Rendon - 2019

You can't deride the entirety of FA based on how terribly the Angels are run. That's like saying "I'm never going to eat another slice of pizza ever again" after only trying Cici's Pizza. 

With a little research, I can probably find another 1000 or so.  I'll start with Story, and now I'm down to 999 left.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The idea behind aging isn't that everyone stops playing.  It is that they decline.  I'd gladly make two serious wagers.

• First is that Judge's production is worse in two years.
• Second is that Judge's production in two years is still very good.

The second part is the biggest hedge of all time. The first part can be measure in so many ways that it is virtually meaningless. 

[drewski6]

If we play .500 ball between now and the deadline , adn we are looking like long shots to make the playoffs at the deadline, do you take calls on Contreras?

My points: 1) Contreras has been awesome for what we pay him and what it costs to acquire him, but his age is partly why he was available in the first place and why his prospect cost (trade cost) wasnt super high 2) For all the bad luck we've had, Contreras fighting off father time so well belongs in the "things that went our way" category

Also - it stinks in a way because the rest of the team has struggled and if we fall out of it by the deadline, we may cash out.  Not because he stinks or hasnt worked out but because thats generally what you do with 34 yr old contributors on bad teams.

Im not sure next year is going to be grand either.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

But they dont have money coming off the books after this year, Im sure the next FA class is lackluster and Im not sure how they get good enough quick enough.

I would argue they have a 25% of making the playoffs this year and 33% next year.

If Contreras continues to do what he has done this year all year, and slightly falls off next year but still be very good .....Good on him.  Thats great.  Not saying he'll hurt the team next year.  But Im saying its a little lucky that hes fought off father time like this.  Look at Joe Bradys analysis hes like the only player improving older than 32.  Theres some luck in that.  And hes really helped.

so all the ppl screaming about the terrible luck we've had this year......

The only way they are going to get better is for the younger players to come into their own. 

THAT'S ALWAYS BEEN THE CASE! 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

If we play .500 ball between now and the deadline , adn we are looking like long shots to make the playoffs at the deadline, do you take calls on Contreras?

My points: 1) Contreras has been awesome for what we pay him and what it costs to acquire him, but his age is partly why he was available in the first place and why his prospect cost (trade cost) wasnt super high 2) For all the bad luck we've had, Contreras fighting off father time so well belongs in the "things that went our way" category

Also - it stinks in a way because the rest of the team has struggled and if we fall out of it by the deadline, we may cash out.  Not because he stinks or hasnt worked out but because thats generally what you do with 34 yr old contributors on bad teams.

Im not sure next year is going to be grand either.

Potential free agents after 2026 season
Catcher: Carson Kelly (mutual option), Ryan Jeffers, Tyler Stephenson, Travis d'Arnaud, Kyle Higashioka (mutual option), Gary Sánchez (mutual option), Jonah Heim

First Base: Yandy Díaz (vesting option), Ryan Mountcastle, Andrew Vaughn, Carlos Santana (mutual option), Paul Goldschmidt, Josh Bell (mutual option), Christopher Morel

Second Base: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ozzie Albies (club option), Gleyber Torres, Luis Arraez, Brandon Lowe, Mauricio Dubón, Jonathan India, Jeff McNeil (club option), Gavin Lux

Third Base: Bo Bichette (opt-out), Eugenio Suárez, Alec Bohm, Anthony Rendon, Edmundo Sosa, Yoán Moncada, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Ramón Urías (mutual option)

Shortstop: J.P. Crawford, Ha-Seong Kim, Jorge Mateo

Outfield: Ronald Acuña Jr. (club option), Luis Robert Jr. (club option), Randy Arozarena, George Springer, Adolis García, Trent Grisham, Nick Castellanos, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Daulton Varsho, Starling Marte, Cedric Mullins (mutual option), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (club option), Victor Robles (club option), Taylor Ward, Ramón Laureano, Lane Thomas, Rob Refsnyder, JJ Bleday, Austin Hays

Designated Hitter: Marcell Ozuna (mutual option), Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson (mutual option)

[notin]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The only way they are going to get better is for the younger players to come into their own. 

THAT'S ALWAYS BEEN THE CASE! 

For any team.  For all the love and mention Judge gets, he isn’t the Yankees best hitter so far this year.  That honor goes to Ben Rice, a man who made exactly zero Top 100 Prospects lists….

[drewski6]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Who cares if Contreras doesn't contribute to a postseason run? They need to have a plan to replace him whether they make the playoffs or not. It's not like there is a window that closes after 2027.

What we agree: Contreras has been really good this year, he will likely drop off next year but still be good

Who cares that the rest of the offense cant get their act together and we still are an overall noodle bat team and will likely miss the playoffs as a result? Probably Contreras, the other players on teh red sox, the mangers/execs, fans.

My point is simple.  The red sox bad offense has me sweating.  The fact that one of the few offensive bright spots is 34 and Joe Brady is making all these points about how age driven drop-offs are so pervasive/consistent......well that doesnt exactly having me sweat less.

If we're gonna miss the playoffs this year, Id rather our top offensive contributors be 24.  Not to imply that we dont have Abreu and Cedanne doing well with more of their careers in front of them.

[drewski6]

Im blaming the rest of the team, not Contreras.

[drewski6]

27 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You seem like an honorable guy, so I'll take that bet I expect you'll regret.

If the red sox have a 25% of making the playoffs this year and 33% next, that means they have a 50.5% chance of making the playoffs in either year, so it will be hard to prove I was so off if they make the playoffs.  If they make the playoffs both years, that would imply that they overcame something that I said was approx 8-10% possible, which is more appropriate for you to eventually shove in my face , but still, things that have an 8% chance of happening still happen.  In fact, they happen every day.

[UtahSox]

18 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If we play .500 ball between now and the deadline , adn we are looking like long shots to make the playoffs at the deadline, do you take calls on Contreras?

My points: 1) Contreras has been awesome for what we pay him and what it costs to acquire him, but his age is partly why he was available in the first place and why his prospect cost (trade cost) wasnt super high 2) For all the bad luck we've had, Contreras fighting off father time so well belongs in the "things that went our way" category

Also - it stinks in a way because the rest of the team has struggled and if we fall out of it by the deadline, we may cash out.  Not because he stinks or hasnt worked out but because thats generally what you do with 34 yr old contributors on bad teams.

Im not sure next year is going to be grand either.

If you don’t think next year is gonna be grand either then I think you 

trade: Gray, Contreras, Gonzalez, Duran, Durbin (for a broken fridge), Whitlock, Slaten, and Chapman.

take calls on: Abreu and Rafaela

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

On a team that stinks at hitting, the last thing I want to see as a fan is the front office trade the only sure threat in the batting order because they sucked so bad at their own roster construction.

Of course, also-rans that don't dwell in Boston regularly deal desirable parts for prospects every summer.

But after what we've seen from the team-extended faces of the franchise these days, do we really want to see some of the only good Red Sox get swapped for more "can't-miss" heroes of the future (that none of us know will ever come)? 

Ready to hurry up and wait again?

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, UtahSox said:

If you don’t think next year is gonna be grand either then I think you 

trade: Gray, Contreras, Gonzalez, Duran, Durbin (for a broken fridge), Whitlock, Slaten, and Chapman.

take calls on: Abreu and Rafaela

Is all the food in the broken fridge spoiled or is there a chance that something in there may be salvaged?

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

On a team that stinks at hitting, the last thing I want to see as a fan is the front office trade the only sure threat in the batting order because they sucked so bad at their own roster construction.

Of course, also-rans that don't dwell in Boston regularly deal desirable parts for prospects every summer.

But after what we've seen from the team-extended faces of the franchise these days, do we really want to see some of the only good Red Sox get swapped for more "can't-miss" heroes of the future (that none of us know will ever come)? 

Ready to hurry up and wait again?

I hear ya.

[JoeBrady]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The second part is the biggest hedge of all time. The first part can be measure in so many ways that it is virtually meaningless. 

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