Boston Red Sox 2026 Win Total

[FredLynn]

4 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

If the Sox win 89 games they’re very likely to be a wild card team.

if you think they’re going to win 89-90 games why are you so dead set on them not making the playoffs?

I don’t think they have the talent to make the playoffs. Reason: we won’t score enough runs. Last year I was satisfied that they made the playoffs even though they were promptly bounced. This year I am not satisfied with just getting in. I want to see at least a deep playoff run. There is a window for success that is present right now. Henry and Breslow are letting it slip away through incompetence and being a tightwad. 
The fans deserve better. If Henry had just been honest with us, stating that baseball is a business and businesses are around to make money that would be fine. But he lied, putting it out there that his priority is winning. That’s simply not born out by his actions.

Here’s one quote where Henry lied about his desire to win::

”Win" Definition: While he previously stated, "We don't need to be popular, we need to win", his actions in recent years have not aligned with the aggressive, high-spending tactics that defined his early ownership. ”

Liar

[JoeBrady]

9 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Do you think the team as currently constructed is a serious competitor for a ring this year?

Absolutely yes.

[FredLynn]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Absolutely yes.

Then I have an island to sell you.

[JoeBrady]

5 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I don’t think they have the talent to make the playoffs.

But you do think that they will win 90.  The difference between us is de minimis.

[JoeBrady]

7 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Then I have an island to sell you.

You already admitted they should win enough games to make the playoffs.  After that, it is a crap shoot.

[FredLynn]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

You already admitted they should win enough games to make the playoffs.  After that, it is a crap shoot.

I said they would win 89 games (88-90). I also said “no playoffs”. Show me where I wrote that they will make the playoffs.

[notin]

29 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I said they would win 89 games (88-90). I also said “no playoffs”. Show me where I wrote that they will make the playoffs.

No team since the current postseason was implemented has won as many as 89 games and failed to get into playoffs.  One team won 88 games and missed.  

89 wins puts their playoff likelihood well over 95%.  At that point, your actually attributing more wins to other teams who have more flaws than Boston…

[FredLynn]

59 minutes ago, notin said:

No team since the current postseason was implemented has won as many as 89 games and failed to get into playoffs.  One team won 88 games and missed.  

89 wins puts their playoff likelihood well over 95%.  At that point, your actually attributing more wins to other teams who have more flaws than Boston…

I don’t think they are good enough to make it into the postseason. They could squeak in, but I doubt it. Less than 50/50 imo. Even if they do get a wild card slot I’m not satisfied this year with just showing up in October. I want more. And we could have had more if Breslow and Henry did their job. One more big IF bat would have given us a chance to compete for a ring. We won’t do that now.

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Let’s settle on 89 wins and still no playoffs 

Lots of goalpost moving, lately.

Of the 8 teams to be the last WC team, these are their win totals:

89

88

87

86

85

83

83

83

It appears 83-85 gives about a 50-50 chance.

86 wins a 63%

87 wins 75%

88 wins 88%

89 wins 100%

If we win 87-88, we should be in.

 

[FredLynn]

48 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Lots of goalpost moving, lately.

Of the 8 teams to be the last WC team, these are their win totals:

89

88

87

86

85

83

83

83

It appears 83-85 gives about a 50-50 chance.

86 wins a 63%

87 wins 75%

88 wins 88%

89 wins 100%

If we win 87-88, we should be in.

 

Happy with making another guest appearance like last year? We could have done much better even if we do squeak in.

[notin]

8 hours ago, FredLynn said:

I don’t think they are good enough to make it into the postseason. They could squeak in, but I doubt it. Less than 50/50 imo. Even if they do get a wild card slot I’m not satisfied this year with just showing up in October. I want more. And we could have had more if Breslow and Henry did their job. One more big IF bat would have given us a chance to compete for a ring. We won’t do that now.

It’s not a question of whether or not you’re satisfied or holding the Sox to a different standard.  89-90 wins is all but a guarantee of postseason play and youre not punishing the Sox by saying they’re going to win that many games and miss the postseason.  Because someone is going and it’s solely based on wins.  MLB isnt going to tell the Red Sox “Sorry,  yes, you won enough games but you neeed a better DH.”

 Does the AL features 6 offenses guaranteed to win more games with their prolific scoring?  If so, who?

[notin]

6 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Happy with making another guest appearance like last year? We could have done much better even if we do squeak in.

That was never part of the question..,

[notin]

Guest

• Please help me to believe that the Red Sox did enough to improve on last year’s Wild Card club.

Mark P

• The pitching is way better, Willson Contereras is a good hitter, and you get a full season of Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer.  The Red Sox should be in good shape to contend again.

 

From a recent MLBTR chat…

[Hugh2]

11 hours ago, FredLynn said:

I don’t think they have the talent to make the playoffs. Reason: we won’t score enough runs. Last year I was satisfied that they made the playoffs even though they were promptly bounced. This year I am not satisfied with just getting in. I want to see at least a deep playoff run. There is a window for success that is present right now. Henry and Breslow are letting it slip away through incompetence and being a tightwad. 
The fans deserve better. If Henry had just been honest with us, stating that baseball is a business and businesses are around to make money that would be fine. But he lied, putting it out there that his priority is winning. That’s simply not born out by his actions.

Here’s one quote where Henry lied about his desire to win::

”Win" Definition: While he previously stated, "We don't need to be popular, we need to win", his actions in recent years have not aligned with the aggressive, high-spending tactics that defined his early ownership. ”

Liar

That's all nice, but the point continues to be if they win 90 games they're almost certainly making the playoffs. 

 

That's what I, and everyone else is saying in here and you keep on ducking, dipping, dunking, and diving over here about that.  

A 90 win team is a playoff team, heck in the new format most teams winning 88 games are making the playoffs. 

In the same statement you said they will win 90 games and miss the playoffs. 

It's just odd to us that someone would have an optimistic take on the win total, seemingly, but then turn around and poo poo the team as not being good enough to make the playoffs. 

Like.....pick a lane bro.

[notin]

8 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Happy with making another guest appearance like last year? We could have done much better even if we do squeak in.

When is it not a guest appearance? 33% of all post-season teams get eliminated with a “guest appearance.”  Another 33% get taken out shortly after.  Are we playing the “anything short of a ring is failure” game?  That game was invented by Serial Complainers…

[FredLynn]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

When is it not a guest appearance? 33% of all post-season teams get eliminated with a “guest appearance.”  Another 33% get taken out shortly after.  Are we playing the “anything short of a ring is failure” game?  That game was invented by Serial Complainers…

This is a big market team. While I certainly don’t expect them to WIN a ring every year I expect them to seriously compete for one nearly every year. That isn’t happening because our owner is cheap and our GM is incompetent.

[harmony]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Lots of goalpost moving, lately.

Of the 8 teams to be the last WC team, these are their win totals:

89

88

87

86

85

83

83

83

It appears 83-85 gives about a 50-50 chance.

86 wins a 63%

87 wins 75%

88 wins 88%

89 wins 100%

If we win 87-88, we should be in.

 

The 2021 Seattle Mariners missed the postseason despite winning 90 games in the regular season and the 2023 Seattle Mariners missed the postseason despite winning 88 games:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, harmony said:

The 2021 Seattle Mariners missed the postseason despite winning 90 games in the regular season and the 2023 Seattle Mariners missed the postseason despite winning 88 games:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/

Pythagorus said that you should have gone 76-86 in '21. Very weird roster. 

[Deja Doh]

The team has many question marks and unproven "talent" to show me they will do better in 2026 than 2025.  Will the team be injury plagued again (we had only 3 players play in 119 or more games last year - in contrast the Blue Jays had 8 players, the Yankees 9 players).  83-79 or 79-83.  It's always been a grind.  

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

The 2021 Seattle Mariners missed the postseason despite winning 90 games in the regular season and the 2023 Seattle Mariners missed the postseason despite winning 88 games:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/

And the 2026 Boston Red Flops will miss the playoffs despite winning 88-90 games. Take it to the bank.

[FredLynn]

3 hours ago, notin said:

That was never part of the question..,

Its part of the complaints about management. It is fair game for this forum.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

And the 2026 Boston Red Flops will miss the playoffs despite winning 88-90 games. Take it to the bank.

Calling a team that you are projecting to win 90 games "Flops" is a little silly IMO. 

[FredLynn]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Calling a team that you are projecting to win 90 games "Flops" is a little silly IMO. 

"FLOPS" because they could have  been much better in terms of roster this year. Instead of winning 88-90 games they could have been a 95 win team had they signed the available talent.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

"FLOPS" because they could have  been much better in terms of roster this year. Instead of winning 88-90 games they could have been a 95 win team had they signed the available talent.

Doesn't make sense. 

[notin]

Fangraphs projects Boston to win 90 games, tying them with Toronto to for first place in the AL East.  They predict the Yankees to win 87, come in 4th in the AL East, and miss the postseason entirely…

[notin]

2 hours ago, FredLynn said:

This is a big market team. While I certainly don’t expect them to WIN a ring every year I expect them to seriously compete for one nearly every year. That isn’t happening because our owner is cheap and our GM is incompetent.

Not so sure.

This team wasn’t so incompetent ladt year, when they scored 12 runs fewer than the American League champion Blue Jays, and actually outscored the Phillies.

This year, the offense should be at least as good as last season’s.  And the SP should be much better…

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Fangraphs projects Boston to win 90 games, tying them with Toronto to for first place in the AL East.  They predict the Yankees to win 87, come in 4th in the AL East, and miss the postseason entirely…

The only way the Yanks miss the playoffs is if Judge hits the IL. They are near locks year in and year out now with expanded playoffs. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, harmony said:

The 2021 Seattle Mariners missed the postseason despite winning 90 games in the regular season and the 2023 Seattle Mariners missed the postseason despite winning 88 games:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/

Yes, 2021 was the last season of the one game play-in. My numbers are from 2022-2025.

4 seasons x 2 leagues= 8 teams with the lowest records to make the playoffs.

I listed out all the teams, including SEA that missed the playoffs with 90 wins, earlier.

[JoeBrady]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

Fangraphs projects Boston to win 90 games, tying them with Toronto to for first place in the AL East.  They predict the Yankees to win 87, come in 4th in the AL East, and miss the postseason entirely…

Cool!  So Fred is predicting us to finish 1st!  

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

"FLOPS" because they could have  been much better in terms of roster this year. Instead of winning 88-90 games they could have been a 95 win team had they signed the available talent.

So, the GM is a "flop" not the team.

You tend to throw terms around very loosely, then end up back-tracking, goal post-moving or changing the argument's focus.

You blame JH, sometimes, when we spent enough AAV, this winter to sign Alonso and Bregman.

You blame Brez for adding Contreras & Gray over Alonso- and Suarez, Durbin & Kiner-Falefa over Bregman. 

Soon, it will all be Cora's fault.

Rince & repeat.