Red Sox sign Ranger Suarez. 5 years $130 Million

[drewski6]

9 hours ago, Old Red said:

I think we know what happened through different accounts. What we don’t know is if Brez was all on his own, or had some restrictions from above namely JH. Of course I’m not criticizing, or blaming Brez just like others are not apologizing, or defending Brez. What we do know is Bregman is a Cub, and Raffy was shipped to SF for a one, and done.🤭

Old Red KOs Moonslav

[notin]

I think the whole notion that the negotiations were botched because fans are unhappy with the outcome is my issue.  They appeared to be fairly standard by what I’m hearing, but with some obvious embellishments.  
 

Breslow and Boras (or any GM/CBO and any agent have clear and opposing goals in any negotiation.  One wants to get as much money as possible; the other wants to spend as little as possible.  That Boras came and said “we have a better offer” is far from uncommon, and in many cases untrue (see Bellinger, Cody).  Boras is actually well known for fabricating interest and offers.  Go read MLBTR commentary regarding the decade long running jokes about the omnipresent “mystery team.”    
 

There are some fairly questionable additions to this beyond the shifting timelines. Like some versions say “by the time Breslow countered, it was too late.”   No it wasn’t. I can guarantee there was no such deadline.  The start of spring training is weeks away and we all know Bregman himself has no issues waiting until late February for the deal he wants.  
 

The Cubs wanted Bregman more than Boston did, and that’s really it. And paid a ln awful lot for a players whose best days are clearly on the past.  And now find themselves posturing on their infield overload, making nonsense statements like “Matt Shaw will play the outfield.” No he won’t, and we all know it.  He’s not starting over either of the reigning Gold Glovers the Cubs already have out there, or even their perfectly capable right fielder who has openly expressed a distaste for being a DH.  But gotta keep up some value with that top infield prospect…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

53rd and 3rd?

LOL.

Granted, nobody hangs out on my corner, but I do listen to sports talk radio while staying at a Holiday Inn Express.

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Old Red KOs Moonslav

What planet do you live on?

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

You want money NOW so that you can put it in investments NOW so you can have even more money later. 

Typically, people invest in a 401k because employers give you matching funds which is basically free money. I don't have to really explain 401ks to you do I? 

The "some people like to win" argument is different altogether. 

So the only reason people invest in 401k? (Lets disregard every other financial instrument) is because the employer matches?

people take more money all the time to receive it in the future.  It’s like saying I can give you $5 today or $10 tomorrow.  
 

you act like what I’m saying absurd or non existent but yet we live in a world where contracts are signed everyday that are backloaded and or have deferrals.  So if what I’m saying is wrong why is everyone else wrong too? Riddle me that.

[notin]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

So the only reason people invest in 401k? (Lets disregard every other financial instrument) is because the employer matches?

people take more money all the time to receive it in the future.  It’s like saying I can give you $5 today or $10 tomorrow.  
 

you act like what I’m saying absurd or non existent but yet we live in a world where contracts are signed everyday that are backloaded and or have deferrals.  So if what I’m saying is wrong why is everyone else wrong too? Riddle me that.

Not to mention, these deferrals are not exactly off in the distant future.  “Well, we can give you all $175million, Mr, Bregman, but you will have to be very patient.  You might have to wait until you’re 45 years old to get it all.”

[JoeBrady]

11 hours ago, drewski6 said:

we cannot know if the cubs offer was much much much better or merely much much better, so what you are saying is technically true and Im so glad that you made a whole post distinguishing this.

I'm glad we agree.  As far as I am concerned, it's still impossible to know what caused the split.  Not trying to prolong the debate, but it could be:

• Bregman was insulted, or at least annoyed, by the no-trade issue.  I don't blame him.  We have no other IF prospects other than Arias, and he set to replace Story.  Most of Bregman's value will be used by the end of year 3, so why sweat years 4&5?.
• Bregman could've been upset by the lack of a back-and-forth negotiation.  To me, it's a game of numbers, but I've seen a lot of people get upset when you don't meet in the middle.
• And finally, the RS numbers might not have been competitive.  That happens.  But I cannot comment on that without knowing what the numbers were.  If my not-to-exceed umber was $150M, and Boras tells me he'll sign today for $155M, I'd roll my eyes and sign him.  But if we had $140M, and he had $160M, then it is a bridge too far.

[JoeBrady]

11 hours ago, Old Red said:

What we do know is Bregman is a Cub

I might have added 'Bregman is a Cub and Suarez is a Red Sox'.  The difference between the two is 0.3 fWAR.  At the end of the day, the total amount of WAR generally dictates what your record is.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I feel if Breslow did hand out a no trade clause, going against “club policy” he probably could have defended his position

While I disagree with the rule, you either have rules or you don't.  The first time you make an exception, then you have to make an exception for everyone.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, Old Red said:

the thing that gets me the most is the Red Sox have Ranger more PDV than they offered Bregman for the same amount of years after the fact.

But do we know that?  Suarez' contract was heavily backloaded.  It doesn't count for CBA, but payments of $10M/$15M/$30/$30M/$35M/$10M probably makes the real-world value something closer to $120M.  I think the Bregman offer was probably far higher.

But just like my 'discussion' with Drewski, we don't know.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

And now find themselves posturing on their infield overload, making nonsense statements like “Matt Shaw will play the outfield.”

I'd bet that some of that played into Breslow's negotiation.  I didn't think there was any chance they'd move Shaw to the bench, and I'd imagine that Breslow felt the same way.

[notin]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd bet that some of that played into Breslow's negotiation.  I didn't think there was any chance they'd move Shaw to the bench, and I'd imagine that Breslow felt the same way.

Shaw isn’t going to the bench and he isn’t going to the outfield.  He starts at Wrigley or he starts in Iowa.  Everyone asking about Hoerner or Shaw knows this…

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Very plausible, so that would make the Bregman PLAN A theory a sham,  sham, sham! So who was going to be the big bat?

I think he was Plan A for a certain portion of the FO. The FO isn't necessarily united around Breslow's vision (see Bregman's signing last season).

[Old Red]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think he was Plan A for a certain portion of the FO. The FO isn't necessarily united around Breslow's vision (see Bregman's signing last season).

Not being united is not a good situation. I wonder where Cora stands on everything.🤔

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

So the only reason people invest in 401k? (Lets disregard every other financial instrument) is because the employer matches?

No. I didn't say that at all. I said A reason. And then asked if I really needed to explain 401ks to you.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Not to mention, these deferrals are not exactly off in the distant future.  “Well, we can give you all $175million, Mr, Bregman, but you will have to be very patient.  You might have to wait until you’re 45 years old to get it all.”

Feel free to read up on net present value and disagree with its importance if you like. I guarantee that Boras is explaining to each of his clients why they should take contracts with higher NPV's. 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

But do we know that?  Suarez' contract was heavily backloaded.  It doesn't count for CBA, but payments of $10M/$15M/$30/$30M/$35M/$10M probably makes the real-world value something closer to $120M.  I think the Bregman offer was probably far higher.

But just like my 'discussion' with Drewski, we don't know.

Bregman’s getting $70M deferred over 8 years with the Cubs where the Red Sox wanted to stretch the deferring over decades was the Reporting.

[JoeBrady]

18 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Not being united is not a good situation. I wonder where Cora stands on everything.🤔

Maybe, maybe not.  I like camaraderie, but I prefer a strong give and take.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Bregman’s getting $70M deferred over 8 years with the Cubs where the Red Sox wanted to stretch the deferring over decades was the Reporting.

But what if I don't like that reporting because it doesn't agree with my argument? 

[moonslav59]

While I do think it matters if a GM is turning off players to the point where they sign somewhere else out of disgust, uneasiness or because they feel like the other team appreciates them more, and maybe Brez caused some of this to happen. Maybe it influenced Breggie's choice- maybe it didn't. If it did, then "by all accounts he botched the talks" has merit.

To me, Bregman did not fill the "big bat" need, but he's certainly better than DHam in the line-up. Contreras is better than Toro, but he did not fill the big bat need, either.

We still need a big bat.

We still need a 2B/3Bman.

We will likely just get one- the 2B/3Bman. Two possible choices might be:

Paredes: .around .800 and maybe an average fielder at best.

Donovan: around .775 and a decent defensive 2Bman who can play other infield positions decently.

That being said, chance are Brez gets someone nobody mentioned.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

But what if I don't like that reporting because it doesn't agree with my argument? 

or if it might not be true.

 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

or if it might not be true.

It's the only truth we have right now. Dismissing it right now doesn't make sense unless there are other reports that suggest it may not be the truth (and not simply message board conjecture).

[notin]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Feel free to read up on net present value and disagree with its importance if you like. I guarantee that Boras is explaining to each of his clients why they should take contracts with higher NPV's. 

But the players still take deferred money.

Ohtani might have been better off with a 10 year $500mill contract that paid him $491mill the first year and $1mill each additional year than deferring $680mill over the next two years decades.  But he still did the latter…

[Hugh2]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No. I didn't say that at all. I said A reason. And then asked if I really needed to explain 401ks to you.

And I gave you A reason to, I didn’t say that’s what people always do or even that it was optimal.  It’s just a fact. Some people take money spread out, they usually get compensated for waiting.

[drewski6]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Why would Bregman take the Cubs's offer if it wasn't much better? Bregman came back to the Sox to get them to up their offer and the Sox clearly didn't get close enough OR deal with the no trade clause issue.

Honestly, I don't know what this argument is even about anymore. Some in the Sox FO wanted Bregman back badly and he's not here. I'm sure they are not happy about it today. They didn't get it done and there currently isn't a public plan on 2b/3b. 

The argument is Joe Brady saying that we dont know what happened because he wants to sow doubt and manipulate, when we know the gist of what happened

The Sox camp thought the negotiations were going better than they were, and thought they had the best offer on the table for Bregman and they were wrong.  And not only were they wrong, they were brash , condescending and insulting, and practically dared Bregman to take the cubs offer while they were simultaneously courting Bregman and this is exactly what I (and you) agreed on in the past, that Breslow - the good probably even still outweighs the bad, but hes not perfect and a weakness is communication and brashness

Joe Brady can pretend and manipulate he may even get a few gullible gullies, but at this point there is a pretty clear picture of what happened - the sox revolved their off season around Bregman , thats obvious. While they were dead wrong on if their offer was tops (it wasnt) and they doubled and tripled down and they look like damn fools.  

Moonslav's - yeah, but i think its better this way is fine. Im fine with that.  And it may absolutely turn out to be a blessing in disguise that Bregman is a cub.

[drewski6]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Why would anyone prefer the money later? Are they dumb? 

It also doesn't make sense to just hand wave all the reporting on the issue that you don't like as "Bregman's camp." C'mon man...

Ive seen people with spending problems force themselves to save by preferring their money not be released to them at once.  Ive seen people buy a house because it forces you to invest and build for the future.

THey are flawed, but not necessarily dumb (people who would prefer the money later). They are also a small minority.

[Hugh2]

58 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Feel free to read up on net present value and disagree with its importance if you like. I guarantee that Boras is explaining to each of his clients why they should take contracts with higher NPV's. 

Net present value can easily be higher taking more money in the future if it’s a lot more money.  You’re not the only person who understands how to discount back cash flows to present day.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

But the players still take deferred money.

Ohtani might have been better off with a 10 year $500mill contract that paid him $491mill the first year and $1mill each additional year than deferring $680mill over the next two years decades.  But he still did the latter…

Was he offered the former? 

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Ive seen people with spending problems force themselves to save by preferring their money not be released to them at once.  Ive seen people buy a house because it forces you to invest and build for the future.

THey are flawed, but not necessarily dumb (people who would prefer the money later). They are also a small minority.

I thought it was implied that if you’re taking money later, rather than sooner there is a premium attached to it.  That’s how it works the majority of the time, but there are certainly times like this that make sense for a lot of people. 
 

it’s like the age old question of taking the monthly payments or the one time payout when you hit the jackpot.  We can math this all day but fact is there are people choosing one and some the other.

[Hugh2]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Was he offered the former? 

I’m sure no one else out there wanted to offer Ohtani money.  The bluejays offered $700 million, but it’s known that Ohtani SPECIFICALLY requested that any team paying him structure it with massive amounts of money deferred because he wanted whatever team he played for to have the financial flexibility to build a team around him.