Sox to acquire Sonny Gray

[Larry Cook]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

 

The more I look at Gray, the better I realize he is…

…. A declining pitcher and bres-slow is gambling that he gets 1 more decent year out of that arm!!!!  

[Duran Is The Man]

7 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

His ERA+, my go to stat for pitchers, was below league average. That makes him a typical dumpster dive type pitcher the Sox relish. Cheap reclamation projects. I’m looking at him as a 3-4 SP. The team has money and prospects. Why not go all in and sign a real #2 and a real RHH power hitter? This would have been the year for it. Instead it’s just more of the same. 
What do you think the chances of fulfilling our other pressing need is?

what "real #2" do you suggest?

[FredLynn]

14 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

what "real #2" do you suggest?

I’m not going to do the research necessary to find out who is available. That’s not my job. It’s the job of management to make those inquiries and put a competitive team on the field. Last year was an improvement but we clearly weren’t good enough to compete for a ring. They have to keep moving forward by addressing the holes on the roster. Their track record for doing that hasn’t been good. 

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

His ERA+, my go to stat for pitchers, was below league average. That makes him a typical dumpster dive type pitcher the Sox relish. Cheap reclamation projects. I’m looking at him as a 3-4 SP. The team has money and prospects. Why not go all in and sign a real #2 and a real RHH power hitter? This would have been the year for it. Instead it’s just more of the same. 
What do you think the chances of fulfilling our other pressing need is?

Even if we discount 2025 as a blip or unlucky ERA/ERA+, his 2024-2025 ERA+ is 101. That's a number 3.

Other indicators show he's better than a 3 and hardly any other key numbers indicate a low 3 or worse. 

He's 20th in fWAR in 2025. That's a number one, if you call 1-30 number 1's, 31-60 number 2's and so on...

He's 12th in K-BB%. That's a number 1.

He's 12th in xFIP and 21st in FIP- both a number 1 category.

His .329 BAbip indicates some bad luck and was bottom 7 in MLB. He was bottom 3rd in hard hit% and LD%, so maybe it was not so much bad luck.

I think if you look at the totality of all these stats, one can say he's about a number 2, or at worst a top number 3. Some might argue he's a borderline 1-2 starter.

His age of 36 does not hint that he will improve, but he does seem to be aging well.

116 ERA+ age 31-35 (117 at age 30-35)

115 ERA+ age 24-29

Call him a 3, okay. Call him a 2, fine. He has not been a 4, but at his age, he may be more likely a 3-4 than a 2-3. We'll see,

[FredLynn]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Even if we discount 2025 as a blip or unlucky ERA/ERA+, his 2024-2025 ERA+ is 101. That's a number 3.

Other indicators show he's better than a 3 and hardly any other key numbers indicate a low 3 or worse. 

He's 20th in fWAR in 2025. That's a number one, if you call 1-30 number 1's, 31-60 number 2's and so on...

He's 12th in K-BB%. That's a number 1.

He's 12th in xFIP and 21st in FIP- both a number 1 category.

His .329 BAbip indicates some bad luck and was bottom 7 in MLB. He was bottom 3rd in hard hit% and LD%, so maybe it was not so much bad luck.

I think if you look at the totality of all these stats, one can say he's about a number 2, or at worst a top number 3. Some might argue he's a borderline 1-2 starter.

His age of 36 does not hint that he will improve, but he does seem to be aging well.

116 ERA+ age 31-35 (117 at age 30-35)

115 ERA+ age 24-29

Call him a 3, okay. Call him a 2, fine. He has not been a 4, but at his age, he may be more likely a 3-4 than a 2-3. We'll see,

Yet you wrote that you were disappointed, I believe, that all we got is Gray and that the SP roster seems to be a completed work. At his age I think Gray is likely to be a #3-4 and is likely to spend a significant amount of time on the injured list. 
We needed someone to slot in right behind Crochet. Gray isn’t that guy.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While I agree, his ERA, ERA+ and ERA- are all just below the league average and league SP'er average ERA numbers.

I've never used those stats as the be all- end all, but they are significant indicators of mediocrity. Then, he's 36.

That last number should be the gripe for disappointed fans. It's unlikely the Red Sox are extending any old-timer with a longterm contract to be part of their "sustained contenders."

Chapman had a career year and was Reliever of the Year, and the Sox rewarded him with a deal for one more season with an option... because he's pushing 40.

They're still trying to be competitive with temporaries while building a foundation with more permanents.

[Hugh2]

36 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I’m not going to do the research necessary to find out who is available. That’s not my job. It’s the job of management to make those inquiries and put a competitive team on the field. Last year was an improvement but we clearly weren’t good enough to compete for a ring. They have to keep moving forward by addressing the holes on the roster. Their track record for doing that hasn’t been good. 

Here I’ll spare you a little trouble.  Sonny Gray put up 3.6 War last season.

Thats more than every single pitcher in free agency this year.  And it would have been second best on this team.

[FredLynn]

7 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Here I’ll spare you a little trouble.  Sonny Gray put up 3.6 War last season.

Thats more than every single pitcher in free agency this year.  And it would have been second best on this team.

Sonny Gray had an ERA of 4.28 last year. According to BR his WAR was 1.4 and his ERA+ was below average, 96. 
We don’t need to necessarily sign a FA SP as our much needed #2. We could trade for him. 
 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayso01.shtml

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Yet you wrote that you were disappointed, I believe, that all we got is Gray and that the SP roster seems to be a completed work. At his age I think Gray is likely to be a #3-4 and is likely to spend a significant amount of time on the injured list. 
We needed someone to slot in right behind Crochet. Gray isn’t that guy.

I'm not sure about the IL, but we do seem to be jinxed on the one and done SP'er deals, as well as the 2 year ones.

Perez I

Perez II

Richards

Paxton

Kluber

Wacha & Hill did okay but got hurt.

Sandoval

Buehler

 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That last number should be the gripe for disappointed fans. It's unlikely the Red Sox are extending any old-timer with a longterm contract to be part of their "sustained contenders."

Chapman had a career year and was Reliever of the Year, and the Sox rewarded him with a deal for one more season with an option... because he's pushing 40.

They're still trying to be competitive with temporaries while building a foundation with more permanents.

The time has come for at least one "Large & Long" deal.

[Hugh2]

12 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Sonny Gray had an ERA of 4.28 last year. According to BR his WAR was 1.4 and his ERA+ was below average, 96. 
We don’t need to necessarily sign a FA SP as our much needed #2. We could trade for him. 
 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayso01.shtml

No one uses Bwar for pitchers.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

No one uses Bwar for pitchers.

It's almost as bad as Fldg%.

[Hugh2]

16 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Sonny Gray had an ERA of 4.28 last year. According to BR his WAR was 1.4 and his ERA+ was below average, 96. 
We don’t need to necessarily sign a FA SP as our much needed #2. We could trade for him. 
 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayso01.shtml

Who do we even know is definitively on the trade market who was better than Gray last year???? Ryan maybe.  That’s it

[Hugh2]

I don’t love the Gray trade, but he definitely makes the rotation better next year.

its also super early in the offseason.  Like really early.  Why can’t we ever wait to see how an offseason transpires before getting all upset???

[Behindenemylines]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

…. A declining pitcher and bres-slow is gambling that he gets 1 more decent year out of that arm!!!!  

Gray signed for just one year may be the plan. The more you look into his numbers the better he looks, The Sox have a hand full of young arms that are knocking on the door (Tolle, Witherspoon, Early Perales, and Dobbins) and may need Gray for just one season. Any free agent signing would have tied the Sox to an aging arm that would block some of the young arms, They can revisit other trade possibilities for starting pitchers after they take care of their position player needs with less stress on them, which could have forced them to over pay with prospect capital,

[FredLynn]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

No one uses Bwar for pitchers.

I do. It’s in the link I sent you. Just because it doesn’t agree with your opinion doesn’t mean it’s not true. 

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

Gray signed for just one year may be the plan. The more you look into his numbers the better he looks, The Sox have a hand full of young arms that are knocking on the door (Tolle, Witherspoon, Early Perales, and Dobbins) and may need Gray for just one season. Any free agent signing would have tied the Sox to an aging arm that would block some of the young arms, They can revisit other trade possibilities for starting pitchers after they take care of their position player needs with less stress on them, which could have forced them to over pay with prospect capital,

This is precisely how I looked at it.  
I didn’t love it at first, but the more I dug, the more I liked.

[Old Red]

20 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Here I’ll spare you a little trouble.  Sonny Gray put up 3.6 War last season.

Thats more than every single pitcher in free agency this year.  And it would have been second best on this team.

The only thing matters is what he’ll do this year. He’ll pitch maybe half his games at Fenway with a not so stellar D most likely behind him, and he’ll also have to face the Yankees 3-4 times this year with whom he got rocked against in his only start last year. He’ll also be a year older. Until I see it I’m not counting on Gray to put up any better numbers than what Gio did last year. ST. Louis wanted to get rid of him so bad they chipped in $20M to do it.

[Hugh2]

Just now, FredLynn said:

I do. It’s in the link I sent you. Just because it doesn’t agree with your opinion doesn’t mean it’s not true. 

Everyone isn’t me, you read any scouting report or analysis from anyone talking about pitchers and they always use their Bwar.  
 

it’s not my opinion its a lot of people’s opinions

[FredLynn]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don’t love the Gray trade, but he definitely makes the rotation better next year.

its also super early in the offseason.  Like really early.  Why can’t we ever wait to see how an offseason transpires before getting all upset???

Maybe because of the track record this team has whereby they consistently try to do things on the cheap?

[FredLynn]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Everyone isn’t me, you read any scouting report or analysis from anyone talking about pitchers and they always use their Bwar.  
 

it’s not my opinion its a lot of people’s opinions

The number is the number. 

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

The only thing matters is what he’ll do this year. He’ll pitch maybe half his games at Fenway with a not so stellar D most likely behind him, and he’ll also have to face the Yankees 3-4 times this year with whom he got rocked against in his only start last year. He’ll also be a year older. Until I see it I’m not counting on Gray to put up any better numbers than what Gio did last year. ST. Louis wanted to get rid of him so bad they chipped in $20M to do it.

St Louis is in a full rebuild, why keep a $35 million dollar man on the roster for one year? Trading him made sense.  The cap hit would be $40 million, they had to kick in half the money to move him and get something.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, FredLynn said:

Maybe because of the track record this team has whereby they consistently try to do things on the cheap?

So, it’s not just about spending the money, it’s about making the really good signing first?

that’s like my children yelling at me because I didn’t give them the nice present to open up first on Christmas morning.

we are not even a month removed from the World Series.  Relax and see what they do

[FredLynn]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

So, it’s not just about spending the money, it’s about making the really good signing first?

that’s like my children yelling at me because I didn’t give them the nice present to open up first on Christmas morning.

we are not even a month removed from the World Series.  Relax and see what they do

Sure. It’s early. Think they will sign Schwarber or Alonso? Or will they resign Bregman and tell us it’s all roses….

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

The number is the number. 

I could say that about his FWAR. His xFIP his k/9 his bb/9.  All suggest a big upgrade.

the numbers are the numbers

[Old Red]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

St Louis is in a full rebuild, why keep a $35 million dollar man on the roster for one year? Trading him made sense.  The cap hit would be $40 million, they had to kick in half the money to move him and get something.

The money chipped in is the best part of the deal, but I’m still not counting on much more from Gray than what Gio gave the Red Sox though even after all the stats that have been thrown out there.

[Hugh2]

17 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Sure. It’s early. Think they will sign Schwarber or Alonso? Or will they resign Bregman and tell us it’s all roses….

I don’t know what they will do.  I’m not going to complain about one move that does in fact make us better when I have zero ideal how the rest of the season will play out.  
 

 

[Hugh2]

Just now, Old Red said:

The money chipped in is the best part of the deal, but I’m still not counting on much more from Gray than what Gio gave the Red Sox though even after all the stats that have been thrown out there.

Gray is an upgrade over Gio in pretty much every sense.  Unless Gray completely falls off a cliff he’s likely better than Gio.

Gray doesn’t rely on velocity to get guys out, he has the profile that ages.  I still don’t like it at 37, and he can still fall off a cliff but it’s guys with his profile that last a little longer

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Gray is an upgrade over Gio in pretty much every sense.  Unless Gray completely falls off a cliff he’s likely better than Gio.

Gray doesn’t rely on velocity to get guys out, he has the profile that ages.  I still don’t like it at 37, and he can still fall off a cliff but it’s guys with his profile that last a little longer

I guess I’m just tired of the 1-2 years rentals.

[FredLynn]

47 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I could say that about his FWAR. His xFIP his k/9 his bb/9.  All suggest a big upgrade.

the numbers are the numbers

It’s really pretty basic. On average he allowed over 4 runs per game. Maybe he’ll be an upgrade but he’s definitely not the #2 SP we still need.