Predicting LT payroll

[notin]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Duran and Bello works on BTV.  But does it work for Hazen?  (Wasn’t he involved with recruiting both for Boston?)

Replying to myself here.

I just looked at the Reasonably Reliable Roster Resource, and that trade does make a ton of sense for AZ on one level. RR lists their starting LF as infielder Blaze Alexander.  Duran gives them an actual LF and allows them to shift Alexander back to 3b where he played last year, and SS Jordan Lawlor (whom RR has starting at 3b) could shift to 2b.  So they replace Marte with a similarly productive and cheaper Duran very smoothly.  And since their projected roster include Mike Soroka, who is among those whose position on his Topps baseball card reads “IL”, Bello is an instantaneous rotation upgrade…

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The Diamonbacks, if they're not getting someone like Mayer back, almost certainly want pitching.  

I named Bello in that trade.  He is a pitcher.

And I am not certain of his involvement, but I believe Diamondbacks CBO Mike Hazen was the Sox GM when Bello was originally signed.

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

I named Bello in that trade.  He is a pitcher.

And I am not certain of his involvement, but I believe Diamondbacks CBO Mike Hazen was the Sox GM when Bello was originally signed.

Bello plays the position of pitcher, but Bello for Marte is something entirely different than Bello/Duran for Marte as you suggested.  If you're removing Duran you have a lot of value to make up

[notin]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

Bello plays the position of pitcher, but Bello for Marte is something entirely different than Bello/Duran for Marte as you suggested.  If you're removing Duran you have a lot of value to make up

I said DURAN AND BELLO.  Did I accidentally and without my knowledge type it in German or Chinese or Wing Dings?  Or is there another reason you keep reading it incorrectly that is entirely not my fault?

[Hugh2]

BTV accepts Brayan Bello/Payton Tolle/Dorian Soto for Ketel Marte

[Hugh2]

Just now, notin said:

I said DURAN AND BELLO.  Did I accidentally and without my knowledge type it in German or Chinese or Wing Dings?  Or is there another reason you keep reading it incorrectly that is entirely not my fault?

Yes and then I told you that I don't think they'd want Duran and you said that Bello was still in there to which I replied it's going to take more than that.......because it will. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes and then I told you that I don't think they'd want Duran and you said that Bello was still in there to which I replied it's going to take more than that.......because it will. 

Well, you said if not Mayer, they want pitching.

Whether or not they want Duran - and I can see both sides there - is something neither of us can determine.  But here is what we know.

1. Arizona isn’t necessarily rebuilding.  They just committed $40mill to a mid-30s pitcher.

2. Not long ago, they had 3 good outfield prospects, but only one has settled in as a starter abd contributor.  (Thomas can start due to his defense.  McCarthy is a 4th OF.)

3. The DBacks were 80-82 last year.  Certainly they could sell off and hope, but it’s not exactly impossible to improve in a very unstable NL West.

4. While Marte is their far and away WAR leader, he and Duran are fairly close in that department.  But Duran is cheaper.

5.  The reason they are interested in trading Marte might be because it turns out, Marte is a whiny bitch. 

[UtahSox]

20 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

What do you place those odds on? quantifiable stats and studies outlining the data of thousands of baseball players comparing their war at specific ages noting trends and even more specifically the results for top 25 prospects????????? Or is that just your guy instinct that likes Marte?

We are talking about the future, so yes gut feel………
 

Specifically a top 25 prospects that can’t stay on the field for more than 80 games a year? Vs a guy 1 year removed from a 6.8 WAR. And only 32 years old, on a below market contract.  I’ll wager a whole lot of money Marte has a higher WAR in 2026 than Mayers. Hell I’ll wager a lot of money he plays more games. 

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, you said if not Mayer, they want pitching.

Whether or not they want Duran - and I can see both sides there - is something neither of us can determine.  But here is what we know.

1. Arizona isn’t necessarily rebuilding.  They just committed $40mill to a mid-30s pitcher.

2. Not long ago, they had 3 good outfield prospects, but only one has settled in as a starter abd contributor.  (Thomas can start due to his defense.  McCarthy is a 4th OF.)

3. The DBacks were 80-82 last year.  Certainly they could sell off and hope, but it’s not exactly impossible to improve in a very unstable NL West.

4. While Marte is their far and away WAR leader, he and Duran are fairly close in that department.  But Duran is cheaper.

5.  The reason they are interested in trading Marte might be because it turns out, Marte is a whiny bitch. 

admittedly I'm not too familiar with Arizonas needs and wants, but I tried to do some online research, minimal but I did look into it.  Their biggest needs appear to be Starting pitching, relief pitching, and a first baseman. 

Maybe Duran makes more sense for another team in another trade, or maybe we can get a three way going with Boston/Arizona and whoever wants Duran. 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I was going to respond to your last larger post but I was pretty much going to say exactly what you were responding to here.

problem is our infield is all holes and question marks right now.

imagine being told a year or two ago our safest bet in the infield was Trevor Story followed by all question marks.  If we had less question marks a Mayer for Marte trade is more justified, but you’re filling one hole and opening up another.  So there’s really no money saved for other moves at all.  You still need a 3B and a 1B and with $15 million less to spend.

TY for reading the longer post.

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

We are talking about the future, so yes gut feel………
 

Specifically a top 25 prospects that can’t stay on the field for more than 80 games a year? Vs a guy 1 year removed from a 6.8 WAR. And only 32 years old, on a below market contract.  I’ll wager a whole lot of money Marte has a higher WAR in 2026 than Mayers. Hell I’ll wager a lot of money he plays more games. 

I've said this many many many times over but I'm speaking more from the aggregate state of mind, which is why I said 100 Mayers for 100 Martes.  the vast majority of those 100 Martes aren't putting up War in their mid 30's that they put up at 30. 

Guys might get paid for what they did, but its' better business to predict what guys will do.  I think most of us here agree that as guys age they get worse and the 33-35 years are some of the most unforgiven when it comes to decline. 100 vs 100. 

Now from a practical matter, again as I've stated over and over again we have more than one hole in the infield.  Trading an infielder for an infielder might be nice if it's an upgrade for a year or two but you have the same EXACT number of holes to fill. 

I'll reiterate a point I made earlier.  The best bet, surest thing we have in our infield is Trevor Story, after him it's Mayer and who else? David Hamilton? 

I'm all for trading for Marte, but I'm looking to plug up a whole and expand the lineup not just get a slight upgrade at one position.  

[Hugh2]

If we trade Mayer for Marte we are at the LT line and we still have two infield holes to fill.  Absolutely nothing has changed, except your budget. 

I propose anyone who is advocating for a Marte trade with Mayer most include realistic options for 3B and 1B for the Sox. 

[UtahSox]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

5.  The reason they are interested in trading Marte might be because it turns out, Marte is a whiny bitch. 

Bring back AB2 and this shouldn’t deal killer.

[notin]

15 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

admittedly I'm not too familiar with Arizonas needs and wants, but I tried to do some online research, minimal but I did look into it.  Their biggest needs appear to be Starting pitching, relief pitching, and a first baseman. 

Maybe Duran makes more sense for another team in another trade, or maybe we can get a three way going with Boston/Arizona and whoever wants Duran. 

They do need a 1b, but unless SF offers up Bryce Eldridge, doubtful they use Marte to get someone.  Triston Casas is basically a repeat of their current Pavin Smith.

I looked at RR on Fangraphs, which is usually pretty accurate.  Their starting OF was Blaze Alexander in LF, Alex Thomas in CF, and Corbin Carroll in RF.  Carroll is an MVP candidate, and Thomas is passable due to his defense.  Alexander? I’d say FG is just filling gaps wuth best available here.  Duran, whose WAR values are comparable to Marte, does fill their OF. Not sure if they view Alexander as a defensive solution in the INF, but it is a possibility.  So basically they could swap out Marte (10.9 fWAR and 11.6bWAR in the last two years) for Duran (10.8 fWAR, 13.4bWAR in the last two years) and gain Bello along with it.  Marte does have a good contract, but Duran is still younger and cheaper.  Fewer years left, but doubtful AZ considers losing Marte at 36 and 37 a deal breaker.

 

Does it make sense? Sure on one level.  But it all depends what direction Hazen wants.  One point in Boston’s favor is Hazen might have favorable opinions on both players.  Of course, he might also hate them both with the white hot passion of 1,000 August suns, I suppose…

[UtahSox]

7 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I've said this many many many times over but I'm speaking more from the aggregate state of mind, which is why I said 100 Mayers for 100 Martes.  the vast majority of those 100 Martes aren't putting up War in their mid 30's that they put up at 30. 

Guys might get paid for what they did, but its' better business to predict what guys will do.  I think most of us here agree that as guys age they get worse and the 33-35 years are some of the most unforgiven when it comes to decline. 100 vs 100. 

Now from a practical matter, again as I've stated over and over again we have more than one hole in the infield.  Trading an infielder for an infielder might be nice if it's an upgrade for a year or two but you have the same EXACT number of holes to fill. 

I'll reiterate a point I made earlier.  The best bet, surest thing we have in our infield is Trevor Story, after him it's Mayer and who else? David Hamilton? 

I'm all for trading for Marte, but I'm looking to plug up a whole and expand the lineup not just get a slight upgrade at one position.  

Ok I think we are closer to same page. Agree Marte without AB2 or Bichette ( I read somewhere he translated well at 3b as well but no data to back that up) isn’t worth it. But 2026 resign AB2, trade Abreu/ Duran for SP2. “window open” “full throttle” marte for MM all day. 

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

They do need a 1b, but unless SF offers up Bryce Eldridge, doubtful they use Marte to get someone.  Triston Casas is basically a repeat of their current Pavin Smith.

I looked at RR on Fangraphs, which is usually pretty accurate.  Their starting OF was Blaze Alexander in LF, Alex Thomas in CF, and Corbin Carroll in RF.  Carroll is an MVP candidate, and Thomas is passable due to his defense.  Alexander? I’d say FG is just filling gaps wuth best available here.  Duran, whose WAR values are comparable to Marte, does fill their OF. Not sure if they view Alexander as a defensive solution in the INF, but it is a possibility.  So basically they could swap out Marte (10.9 fWAR and 11.6bWAR in the last two years) for Duran (10.8 fWAR, 13.4bWAR in the last two years) and gain Bello along with it.

 

Does it make sense? Sure on one level.  But it all depends what direction Hazen wants.  One point in Boston’s favor is Hazen might have favorable opinions on both players.  I mean, he might also hate them both with the white hot passion of 1,000 August suns, I suppose…

Cedanne, Duran, Bello, Mayer for Corbin Caroll and Marte take it or leave it.

[Hugh2]

Mets could really use Duran more than the Diamonbacks and they have some pieces that might entice AZ.  Maybe a three way trade with Boston/NY/ARZ is in the works. 

[notin]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

If we trade Mayer for Marte we are at the LT line and we still have two infield holes to fill.  Absolutely nothing has changed, except your budget. 

I propose anyone who is advocating for a Marte trade with Mayer most include realistic options for 3B and 1B for the Sox. 

That’s why the OF offers better trade alternatives.  
 

Duran and Bello for Marte.  Sign Marte’s former teammate Eugenio Suarez for 1b.  Start the season…

[notin]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Cedanne, Duran, Bello, Mayer for Corbin Caroll and Marte take it or leave it.

If I’m Hazen, I leave it.  When it comes to Carroll, not sure Anthony even perks my interest…

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

If I’m Hazen, I leave it.  When it comes to Carroll, not sure Anthony even perks my interest…

Of course, haha.  Carrolls name is a deal breaker, im sure. might even get you blocked.

[Hugh2]

People do remember that 100 loss teams HAVE had elite elite players on them and that you need 9 guys in a lineup and a few pitchers every single night to win?  

YOu have to either develop prospects, pay $$$, or trade prospects for MLB quality players.  That's it, those are your only 3 options. 

if you

1. trade away all your prospects for a few players

and

2. are unwilling to spend the money then guess what? you're stuck with the team you have. 

I'm not sure trading prospect capital to fill two holes while opening up four is good for business.  If we were the LA Dodgers and I knew Henry would just go out and throw some money at a few guys I'd be more for that.....but we are not the Dodgers. 

[mvp 78]

54 minutes ago, notin said:

I named Bello in that trade.  He is a pitcher.

And I am not certain of his involvement, but I believe Diamondbacks CBO Mike Hazen was the Sox GM when Bello was originally signed.

C'mon man...

[Hugh2]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

That’s why the OF offers better trade alternatives.  
 

Duran and Bello for Marte.  Sign Marte’s former teammate Eugenio Suarez for 1b.  Start the season…

I'd be fine with this. 

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

That’s why the OF offers better trade alternatives.  
 

Duran and Bello for Marte.  Sign Marte’s former teammate Eugenio Suarez for 1b.  Start the season…

The reason why you would trade Mayer for Marte is so you would have one hitter in the top 50.  One very good one for 2026. Because right now, we have 0.

Im reading the arguments why not, and Im very hesitant to move Mayer myself for a lot of reasons mentioned. It does open a hole, I get that.  

But lets not act like there is 0 point to getting a dude who would be easily the best hitter on our team next year.  Ortiz and Manny are not walking through that door.

[notin]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Mets could really use Duran more than the Diamonbacks and they have some pieces that might entice AZ.  Maybe a three way trade with Boston/NY/ARZ is in the works. 

There are a lot of teams Duran represents an immediate and smart upgrade.

Diamondbacks, Mets, Phillies, Dodgers, Royals, Guardians, Astros, Blue Jays, Yankees, Tigers, Mariners, Braves, Padres, and probably a couple others.  And he’s out of so few budgets…

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

I'd be fine with this. 

I think me too

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

C'mon man...

Was Hazen there when Bello and/or Duran joined the Sox organization?

[Hugh2]

Per Bradfo the Market for Duran is heating up. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Ortiz and Manny are not walking through that door.

Pablo Reyes and Yu Chang aren't either. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Was Hazen there when Bello and/or Duran joined the Sox organization?

Who cares? What does that matter today. Even if he liked Duran enough at the time to say "draft Duran," isn't there enough scouting and analysis since then to provide an outsized opinion based solely on their professional time? I don't think being in the org at the time of acquisition matters at all for Duran or Bello. It would matter for a guy that was recently signed, but that's about it.