Murakami, yes or no?

[Brock Beauchamp]

What are your thoughts on him?

Who Will Land This Offseason's Biggest International Free Agent? - Padres - Padres Mission

PADRESMISSION.COM

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Munetaka Murakami is ready to make his highly anticipated move to Major League Baseball in 2026. Who makes the most sense to land the star slugger?

 

[mvp 78]

Okamoto YES

Murakami NO

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No MORE big whiffers. Toronto finished in last place last year, and changed their offensive approach.

I'd rather have two .300 hitters who can go yard 25 times each instead of one 50-HR man who strikes out 200 times.

[Deja Doh]

He's now free for any team to low ball.  As a 3rd baseman, Murakami seems for real.  If he's cheap, great.  If he's like Yoshida, not so great.

[notin]

There are reports about Murakami’s struggles vs fastballs greater than 93mph.  Since I don’t know offhand, what are typical numbers against those same fastballs?

[moonslav59]

Big NO!

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Big NO!

This. The guy cannot hit a fastball. Stay well away. 

[notin]

21 minutes ago, Hitch said:

This. The guy cannot hit a fastball. Stay well away. 

Bear in mind that the fastball data everyone is condemning is from one season in which he had only 220 ABs…

[Hitch]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Bear in mind that the fastball data everyone is condemning is from one season in which he had only 220 ABs…

His career average against 93+ mph fastballs is .188.

No thanks.

[Hitch]

That being said - I just read this:  Ohtani had a career avg .138 in NPB on the fastball. 

Maybe it's overplayed. I prefer someone else finds out. We need people who can get on base, not strike out merchants who may or may not catch up to fastballs.

[harmony]

On 11/3/2025 at 10:58 AM, mvp 78 said:

Okamoto YES

Murakami NO

The 2026 ZiPS projections for Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto:

MM 515 PA, 26 HR, .363 OBP, .454 SLG, 126 wRC+, 3.4 WAR
KO 494 PA, 20 HR, .340 OBP, .451 SLG, 117 wRC+, 2.4 WAR

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-top-50-mlb-free-agents/

Scroll down to Nos. 12 and 21.

Is Murakami worth the projected difference in contract length and AAV?

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, harmony said:

The 2026 ZiPS projections for Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto:

MM 515 PA, 26 HR, .363 OBP, .454 SLG, 126 wRC+, 3.4 WAR
KO 494 PA, 20 HR, .340 OBP, .451 SLG, 117 wRC+, 2.4 WAR

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-top-50-mlb-free-agents/

Scroll down to Nos. 12 and 21.

Is Murakami worth the projected difference in contract length and AAV?

Murakami is going to be a high ceiling/low floor guy with a big contract and bad defense. I'd go with Okamoto who would have much better defense, which makes me question the overall WAR calc.