Article: Bryce Harper Isn't the First Base Solution the Red Sox Need

[Brandon Glick]

Happy Halloween, all! For those in need of a good scare on this spooky holiday, I present to you a rumored trade target of the Boston Red Sox with the following qualifications:

• 33 years old
• Six years, $153 million remaining on current contract
• Relegated exclusively to first base/designated hitter
• Hasn't played 150+ games in a season since 2019
• Hit .261/.357/.487 with a 131 wRC+ in 2025

That's impressive production at the plate, but at that age and with that contract, you can be sure Craig Breslow and the front office will be scared off from pulling the trigger on a trade, regardless of the name or how luscious his beard is.

Indeed, Bryce Harper appears likely to hit the trade market this winter, though not because of any serious decline in his performance or a demolition of the aging Philadelphia Phillies' core. Instead, old friend Dave Dombrowski found himself running his mouth to the media, saying that Harper, while still an All-Star, might no longer be the elite player he once was. Though those comments were later walked back, Dombrowski never totally shut down trade speculation surrounding his first baseman, leading to an ongoing saga in which Harper has been vocal about feeling betrayed by the franchise.

If you're more into sports drama than I am, you know there's more to the story than that, but the point of this isn't the dysfunction sinking the 2022 National League pennant winners. It's that Harper, for the first time since the end of his tenure with the Washington Nationals, is truly available, though this time via trade rather than free agency.

The first base problem remains a confounding one in Boston. Triston Casas has long been expected to be the solution, but injuries have completely derailed a once-promising career. After three straight years of posting a wRC+ above 120, the 25-year-old managed a paltry 56 mark in 2025 before a ruptured left patellar tendon ended his season prematurely in early May. Both he and Nathaniel Lowe will likely be tendered contracts via arbitration this offseason (Casas is more likely to stay than Lowe if push comes to shove), but counting on either to produce commensurate with other All-Star talent at a premium offensive position is a fool's errand.

Thus, unless you believe playing Romy Gonzalez on an everyday basis or trusting Kristian Campbell's glove are good ideas, then you'll come to the same conclusion the Red Sox have: The team needs to acquire a new first baseman this offseason.

I, like many others, like Pete Alonso's fit in Fenway Park, but I also know that Breslow isn't going to be giving him the contract he wants. He was great in 2025 (141 wRC+) but merely above-average in the two seasons prior. Handing him $30+ million a year just to strikeout 25% of the time isn't good business, especially if his elite power wanes as he ages deeper into his thirties.

Harper is a higher-floor, lower-ceiling alternative to Alonso, and the Red Sox could probably get the Phillies to pay a decent portion of his remaining deal if they were willing to part with a legitimate prospect in return. Even so, six years of guaranteed salary is a lot to pay for a guy who, in Dombrowski's words, is no longer elite.

That characterization is unfortunately true, no matter how much Harper doesn't like it. After posting a 150 wRC+ in 2020 and a 170 mark in 2021, he's sat in the 130-140 range over the past four seasons. That's still a huge step up from what the Red Sox got out of the cold corner in 2025 (.244/.305/.386, 86 wRC+), but a first baseman who hits like that isn't quite the same as a right fielder who wins MVP awards. Sure, Harper has also become a quality defender at first base since shifting in from the outfield, accruing eight Outs Above Average, four Fielding Run Value, and two Defensive Runs Saved since the start of 2024 (over 2,300 innings at first base), but he's getting paid Freddie Freeman money to be, well, not as good as Freddie Freeman.

In reality, even if Harper was producing like his old self, he'd still be a tough sell for the Red Sox. The front office has been very careful about spending long-term money in anticipation of the 2027 lockout, reserving those contracts for very young members of their current core. Players who don't fit that description (Rafael Devers, Alex Bregman, Kenley Jansen, etc.) have been jettisoned via trade or shown the door to free agency in recent years. Owing Harper $20+ million in 2031, when he'll be 38 years old, flies in the face of that philosophy.

I don't think many were banging the drum for the Red Sox to chase Harper this winter, but I did want to remind people of a few things:

1. Just because someone isn't "elite" doesn't mean they're bad; if Harper was recording a 130-140 wRC+ every year and was five years younger, he'd be considered a steal at his current contract.
2. There are alternatives to Alonso on the first base market, though every option will have major flaws. There's no perfect fit, including Alonso himself.
3. The Red Sox absolutely have to find more competition for Casas and Lowe at first base in 2026. An 86 wRC+ at first base across an entire season is untenable for a contending team.

It's more likely than not that the Phillies and Harper make up and move forward together, if only because convincing another contending team to take on the back half of his contract is going to be a nightmare. There's reason to squint and convince yourself that he'd be a strong immediate upgrade over what the Red Sox can field at first base next year—especially if they miss out on Alonso—but odds are the front office will be happier rolling with what it has than trying to finagle the two-time MVP's contract into their accounting books.

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[TedYazPapiMookie]

Bryce like Bregman is an exceptional ball player who struggles to play 150 games but he's elite when healthy, he's a true professional and good for the clubhouse.  Bryce won't enjoy playing for Cora. It's like oil and water.  Bryce has a Pedroia or Varitek old school mentality of intensity and not a lot of humor and I'm sure he will see Cora's favoritism as a real issue because he's all about meritocracy.  Let's take Bryce off the table completely.  If not for his days in Houston, I would take Bregman off the table too but he seemed to put up with Cora ok in 2025 but it must not have been too great since he opted out and was being paid more than he's worth.  He also wants to win so both he and Bryce will try to land in LAD.  Freeman is pretty old and doesn't look like Freddie anymore. 

Just go get Bieber, Realmuto and convince Bregman to extend with a longer contract and Boston should win the AL East.  

[mvp 78]

He's a lefty bat who sprays the ball really well and could use the Monster. His defense ticked down a little bit this season, but he's a patient hitter who k's less than the average MLBer. He's also supposed to be a great clubhouse guy if you can't re-sign Bregman. If he just averages 3 fWAR, he's worth the contract. I'm not sure what the trade would be, but there isn't a 1b pipeline in the org and if the cost is right the Sox should explore it IMO.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's a lefty bat who sprays the ball really well and could use the Monster. His defense ticked down a little bit this season, but he's a patient hitter who k's less than the average MLBer. He's also supposed to be a great clubhouse guy if you can't re-sign Bregman. If he just averages 3 fWAR, he's worth the contract. I'm not sure what the trade would be, but there isn't a 1b pipeline in the org and if the cost is right the Sox should explore it IMO.

Harper could go on NESN and get even with Papelbon with a Will Smith slap at the Oscars... or a Will Smith tag at the plate...

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Harper could go on NESN and get even with Papelbon with a Will Smith slap at the Oscars... or a Will Smith tag at the plate...

Get the duck boats out for this one. 

[Old Red]

47 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's a lefty bat who sprays the ball really well and could use the Monster. His defense ticked down a little bit this season, but he's a patient hitter who k's less than the average MLBer. He's also supposed to be a great clubhouse guy if you can't re-sign Bregman. If he just averages 3 fWAR, he's worth the contract. I'm not sure what the trade would be, but there isn't a 1b pipeline in the org and if the cost is right the Sox should explore it IMO.

I don’t think he would come cheap, and I believe to many years left on that contract for the Red Sox taste.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Old Red said:

I don’t think he would come cheap, and I believe to many years left on that contract for the Red Sox taste.

I agree. If the Phils were trying to get out of the deal, it could make sense. I think DD just kind of stuck his foot in his mouth and the media ran with it. 

[notin]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I agree. If the Phils were trying to get out of the deal, it could make sense. I think DD just kind of stuck his foot in his mouth and the media ran with it. 

Reactions have been mixed on DD here, with some saying he now has to move Harper and others saying Harper will be motivated to show DD up.  Of course these are not mutually exclusiveu.

Not mentioned in this article is Harper has 10/5 rights and can reject any trade.  So would Harper be willing to be traded? To Boston? At all?

[JoeBrady]

57 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's a lefty bat who sprays the ball really well and could use the Monster. His defense ticked down a little bit this season, but he's a patient hitter who k's less than the average MLBer. He's also supposed to be a great clubhouse guy if you can't re-sign Bregman. If he just averages 3 fWAR, he's worth the contract. I'm not sure what the trade would be, but there isn't a 1b pipeline in the org and if the cost is right the Sox should explore it IMO.

I don't like that he's a lefty, and his contract is about 3 years too long.  We can get similar overall production from Alonso for shorter years at a younger age.

[notin]

23 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I don't like that he's a lefty, and his contract is about 3 years too long.  We can get similar overall production from Alonso for shorter years at a younger age.

Bryce is a lefty and Alonso is younger, but that’s where my agreement here stops.

In the last 3 years, Harper has a 140 OPS+ while Alonso has a 130.  Harper is a little older, but Alonso has always been the inferior hitter.
 
We don’t know if Alonso signs for less than 6yrs $153.  While I agree he is unlikely to get the 7 years he wants, that figure might be close to accurate.  But with Harper, there is the possibility of Philly covering some of it (which DD has never shied away from) or taking back Yoshida or Hicks (or both?) to reduce the overall cost to potentially less than Alonso…

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Bryce is a lefty and Alonso is younger, but that’s where my agreement here stops.

In the last 3 years, Harper has a 140 OPS+ while Alonso has a 130.  Harper is a little older, but Alonso has always been the inferior hitter.
 
We don’t know if Alonso signs for less than 6yrs $153.  While I agree he is unlikely to get the 7 years he wants, that figure might be close to accurate.  But with Harper, there is the possibility of Philly covering some of it (which DD has never shied away from) or taking back Yoshida or Hicks (or both?) to reduce the overall cost to potentially less than Alonso…

There is always this taking back Masa, and Hicks on here, and I see very little chance that any team out there would take one let alone both of them. I’ve seen all kinds of predictions out there for Alonso from 3-4 yrs to 7 yrs. I also don’t see Harper going anywhere.

[notin]

Just now, Old Red said:

There is always this taking back Masa, and Hicks on here, and I see very little chance that any team out there would take one let alone both of them. I’ve seen all kinds of predictions out there for Alonso from 3-4 yrs to 7 yrs. I also don’t see Harper going anywhere.

It’s Harper’s choice, so if he wants to stay, there is nothing DD can do about it.

As for taking players back to offset salary, that happens all the time.  It’s how the Sox got Hicks in the first place.  Teams do it to get better players back in the rest of the package…

[mvp 78]

49 minutes ago, notin said:

Reactions have been mixed on DD here, with some saying he now has to move Harper and others saying Harper will be motivated to show DD up.  Of course these are not mutually exclusiveu.

Not mentioned in this article is Harper has 10/5 rights and can reject any trade.  So would Harper be willing to be traded? To Boston? At all?

I think it will all blow over and Harper retires as a Phil. Would he be willing to be traded? Probably to BOS. Probably a big NO to COL. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

There is always this taking back Masa, and Hicks on here, and I see very little chance that any team out there would take one let alone both of them. I’ve seen all kinds of predictions out there for Alonso from 3-4 yrs to 7 yrs. I also don’t see Harper going anywhere.

I think most of those suggesting we dump Yoshida or Hicks recognize the need to pay 60-80% of their salary or take back a sunken contract to offset the sunken cost sent away. (Or, include value with other players that some rich team wants badly enough to take on some or most of the contracts.)

If we are walking a tip rope on the winter budget, like most of think we are, then "saving" a few $Million, even if just $3-4M AAV might be just enough to get an Alonso, instead of Suarez or Polanco, a Suarez or Polanco, instead of a Hoskins or Naylor, etc...

A simple trade of Duran for Lodolo saves $3.5M AAV. That does not sound like much, but $48M vs $45M is better, $33M vs $30M is better and $23M vs $20M is better.

I'm not predicting we trade either. The types of deals I have suggested all seem flawed, to me. I doubt it can be done, unless we take on more salary than we give up. Most teams looking to dump salary, do not want sunken salary in return, even if it's less.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think it will all blow over and Harper retires as a Phil. Would he be willing to be traded? Probably to BOS. Probably a big NO to COL. 

TO LAD or SFG or NYM (if Alonso walks) maybe.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s Harper’s choice, so if he wants to stay, there is nothing DD can do about it.

As for taking players back to offset salary, that happens all the time.  It’s how the Sox got Hicks in the first place.  Teams do it to get better players back in the rest of the package…

I understand how the whole thing works, but I really don’t see how the Phillies would be better off with Masa, and Hicks than with Harper. I understand Hicks was a salary dump for SF to get Raffy.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think most of those suggesting we dump Yoshida or Hicks recognize the need to pay 60-80% of their salary or take back a sunken contract to offset the sunken cost sent away. (Or, include value with other players that some rich team wants badly enough to take on some or most of the contracts.)

If we are walking a tip rope on the winter budget, like most of think we are, then "saving" a few $Million, even if just $3-4M AAV might be just enough to get an Alonso, instead of Suarez or Polanco, a Suarez or Polanco, instead of a Hoskins or Naylor, etc...

A simple trade of Duran for Lodolo saves $3.5M AAV. That does not sound like much, but $48M vs $45M is better, $33M vs $30M is better and $23M vs $20M is better.

I'm not predicting we trade either. The types of deals I have suggested all seem flawed, to me. I doubt it can be done, unless we take on more salary than we give up. Most teams looking to dump salary, do not want sunken salary in return, even if it's less.

I fully understand the wanting to get rid of Hicks, and Masa both in body, and contract, but I just don’t see it happening. That’s all.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I understand how the whole thing works, but I really don’t see how the Phillies would be better off with Masa, and Hicks than with Harper. I understand Hicks was a salary dump for SF to get Raffy.

Depends on the rest of the deal.   While I doubtbHaper gets traded, the speculation is DD would move him because DD made some uncomfortable statements about Harper.  So this is close to Devers Territory.

A deal like Duran and Hicks for Harper, Bohm (on the block to clear a path for Aiden Miller) and Orion “Is Home Plate Over There?” Kerkering makes a ton of sense for Philly.

No idea if Breslow likes it.  No idea if Harper likes it.  No idea if the Sox keep Bohm.  But Philly needs OF help badly and DD did draft Duran and move him there…

[notin]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

TO LAD or SFG or NYM (if Alonso walks) maybe.

Think Philly would deal Harper to the Mets? 
 

I think they’d prefer to deal Harper out of thr NL East (and probably out of the NL altogether) and then use the savings to sign Alonso…

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I fully understand the wanting to get rid of Hicks, and Masa both in body, and contract, but I just don’t see it happening. That’s all.

I have said the same, many times.

I've racked my brain trying to find the "right team" to create some sort of possible deal, but none jumped out as likely or even close to likely, for reasons we all know.

I don't want Arenado, even though he might fill a 1B need Masa cannot. I'll take Sonny Gray & Willson Contreras and give up some youth along with Masas and or Hicks, but if STL wants to dump their contracts, they can do so without Masa or Hicks and get a nice return- maybe not as nice as we can give, but probably not enough for them to say okay.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Think Philly would deal Harper to the Mets? 
 

Yes, then sign Alonso and Schwarber.

[notin]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think it will all blow over and Harper retires as a Phil. Would he be willing to be traded? Probably to BOS. Probably a big NO to COL. 

Agreed.  It’s a harmless discussion for today and Harper will probably be in Philly longer than DD will…

[notin]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Yes, then sign Alonso and Schwarber.

They could also trade Harper to a team that is NOT the Mets and still sign Alonso and Schwarber…

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

They could also trade Harper to a team that is NOT the Mets and still sign Alonso and Schwarber…

Yes, but there are only 2-3 teams in the Mix and SFG and LAD have 1Bmen.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I have said the same, many times.

I've racked my brain trying to find the "right team" to create some sort of possible deal, but none jumped out as likely or even close to likely, for reasons we all know.

I don't want Arenado, even though he might fill a 1B need Masa cannot. I'll take Sonny Gray & Willson Contreras and give up some youth along with Masas and or Hicks, but if STL wants to dump their contracts, they can do so without Masa or Hicks and get a nice return- maybe not as nice as we can give, but probably not enough for them to say okay.

BTV calls Duran, Yoshida and Hicks to Philly for Harper, Kerkering and Nick Castellanos a fair trade. 
 

Not one I like.  And I doubt Breslow and DD both find it palatable either.  But it’s a fair trade on their system…

[notin]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, but there are only 2-3 teams in the Mix and SFG and LAD have 1Bmen.

I think the mix is larger than that.  
 

6yrs $153mill isn’t the rare air it used to be, and Harper is on the very short list of marketable MLB players.  In fact, he might have the highest Q Factor tjis side of Ohtani.

Not to mention, as it is  a trade, Philly can pay it down or take back some cash.

I think a Harper trade depends more on where Bryce wants to go than who else is interested…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

BTV calls Duran, Yoshida and Hicks to Philly for Harper, Kerkering and Nick Castellanos a fair trade. 
 

Not one I like.  And I doubt Breslow and DD both find it palatable either.  But it’s a fair trade on their system…

The Tax hit on the Sox would be significant but not unmanageable:

$18M Masa, $10.2M Hicks and $8M Duran= $36M

$25.3 Harper+ $20M Castellanos= $45M

The 6 years remaining on Harper's deal is what JH would nix. Castellanos has just one more year left, and Hicks and Masas have two, so for 2027, we'd actually save a little money, but I don't see getting past the large and long JH stumbling block.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Tax hit on the Sox would be significant but not unmanageable:

$18M Masa, $10.2M Hicks and $8M Duran= $36M

$25.3 Harper+ $20M Castellanos= $45M

The 6 years remaining on Harper's deal is what JH would nix. Castellanos has just one more year left, and Hicks and Masas have two, so for 2027, we'd actually save a little money, but I don't see getting past the large and long JH stumbling block.

I think Philly taking on Yoshida to replace Schwarber nixes the deal.

If I was Henry, I’d rather pay Harper for 6 years than either Alonso or Bregman for five…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

I think the mix is larger than that.  
 

6yrs $153mill isn’t the rare air it used to be, and Harper is on the very short list of marketable MLB players.  In fact, he might have the highest Q Factor tjis side of Ohtani.

Not to mention, as it is  a trade, Philly can pay it down or take back some cash.

I think a Harper trade depends more on where Bryce wants to go than who else is interested…

If he wasn't 33, yes.

Maybe it's 2-3 teams but not LAD or SFG. Maybe 4-5 teams, max- not the Sox.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

BTV calls Duran, Yoshida and Hicks to Philly for Harper, Kerkering and Nick Castellanos a fair trade. 
 

Not one I like.  And I doubt Breslow and DD both find it palatable either.  But it’s a fair trade on their system…

Do you think DD consults BTV? I don’t believe the Red Sox would have Any interest in Cast Man, and Harper has to much time left on his contract.