Boston Red Sox Arbitration Decisions & Projections: Triston Casas

K Campbell should be listed as 1B depth.

The ambidextrous are the real problem -- they won't just rely on traditional measures or metrics, but insist on using all tools of evaluation.

The ambidextrous consider every angle in circular motions that create holistic holes in the whole panorama that sink boats in the panorama canal before we can identify if they're manned by fishermen or scapegoat farmers.

If only the ambidextrous would just put both hands in their pockets and use their eyes, they'd see what the rest of us are told we're seeing.

33 minutes ago, harmony said:

Does anyone agree with Baseball Trade Values that Triston Casas currently has 0 surplus value?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=triston+casas&page=1

I'd put him at +0.5, so yes, I kinda agree.

58 minutes ago, urban cowboy said:

Casas is worth a bit of a gamble in the sense of trying to lock him in for a few extra years while his value is low. I still believe in him, and when you look at what's out there in regarding other first basemen, it's a sound risk. 

I'm also with @TedYazPapiMookie that we shouldn't give up on Campbell either. If we're patient, we could be set for a long time!

He's got 3 arbs left. You want to go beyond 3?

1 hour ago, urban cowboy said:

Casas is worth a bit of a gamble in the sense of trying to lock him in for a few extra years while his value is low. I still believe in him, and when you look at what's out there in regarding other first basemen, it's a sound risk. 

I'm also with @TedYazPapiMookie that we shouldn't give up on Campbell either. If we're patient, we could be set for a long time!

I really dislike the idea of giving up on Casas or Campbell.  There's a reason that they were highly ranked prospects.  Prospects don't always work out, obviously, but it's too soon to give up on either.  I'd pencil Casas in as our starting first baseman, and maybe even pencil Campbell in as our starting second baseman.  I know that I'm banking a lot on potential.

7 minutes ago, urban cowboy said:

Good point. I suppose I was making a more general point to hang on to him rather than trade him or sign someone else. Gotta really think through the long-term early signing strategy. How many do you do that for? We have Raffie, Campbell, and Anthony now, I think, and maybe still paying  Rusney Castillo, too, ha. 

I'm with you and others on keeping Casas.

I'm thinking we need one major trade and one major signing, plus one more pretty big addition... minimum.

4 hours ago, urban cowboy said:

Casas is worth a bit of a gamble in the sense of trying to lock him in for a few extra years while his value is low. I still believe in him, and when you look at what's out there in regarding other first basemen, it's a sound risk. 

I'm also with @TedYazPapiMookie that we shouldn't give up on Campbell either. If we're patient, we could be set for a long time!

Campbell’s had like 230 PA.  Hopefully no decision was made on him either way yet…

2 hours ago, Kimmi said:

I really dislike the idea of giving up on Casas or Campbell.  There's a reason that they were highly ranked prospects.  Prospects don't always work out, obviously, but it's too soon to give up on either.  I'd pencil Casas in as our starting first baseman, and maybe even pencil Campbell in as our starting second baseman.  I know that I'm banking a lot on potential.

Campbell was pretty bad at 2b.  That ship might have sailed.  But even if he is in the OF mix he can find hiscway back to Boston…

21 minutes ago, notin said:

Campbell was pretty bad at 2b.  That ship might have sailed.  But even if he is in the OF mix he can find hiscway back to Boston…

Agreed. LF... maybe 1B or DH, but I doubt 2B.

Just now, Hugh2 said:

Ya’ll are nuts for thinking Casas has trade value right now.  The upside is in keeping him, but I’d have little issue with the team moving on at first base and letting Casas hit his way back there.

of course, that creates a Yoshida issue again

I think almost all of us want to keep him, offer him arb and give him a shot. His trade value is so low vs his upside potential, and he may have the most proven HR power of any Sox player on the 40.

What do we need most, this winter?

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Exactly, the separation between his trade value and how good makes him one of the most un-tradable guys on the team.  

I'm not predicting he regains what was lost. His injury is a tough one to come back from, but if he gets healthy, I have a ton of faith he's the real deal as a batter.

It may take him another year, but Yoshida only has 2 left, so there will be room for him at DH, where he has always belonged.

8 hours ago, Deja Doh said:

Like I said last year and will repeat for this coming year, forget about Casas, focus on signing Pete Alonso and first base isn't an issue for 5 years.  We need power.  And we need it now.  Casas is too busy painting his fingernails.

Plenty of time for that while sitting on the bench as a DH.

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Campbell isn't the first guy to struggle in his first taste of MLB ball. He'll be back when he's ready. 

Agreed. I feel it's much more likely his struggles were just a temporary setback. It would help if he could find a position and get okay it- other than DH.

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm more worried about his glove than his bat.

Me, too, and we already have 17 DHs or 3-5 players who probably should be DH only.

20 hours ago, notin said:

Campbell was pretty bad at 2b.  That ship might have sailed.  But even if he is in the OF mix he can find hiscway back to Boston…

Yes, I know he was really bad at 2B.  Being young and athletic, though, I would hope that he could improve defensively.  While I understand the value of versatility and being able to play multiple positions, Campbell is one that I think the Sox need to find a position for and leave him there to master it.  I agree that his position might not be 2B.

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

This is exactly my take as well, I can see why some are a little edgy about that because he started off last season in a slump and got hurt before he ever really got it going. 

But if Casas comes back healthy, Story of 25 shows up, and Mayer/Anthony are back healthy I think the offense even without any additions could at the very least get a little better.  They really should. 

Casas almost always stars out slowly, and I usually berate posters over using small sample sizes, but I do think Casas was coming out of his funk in early '25 before the injury:

Last 8 games: .261 2 HRs 7 RBI (.936 OPS thanks to 5 BB and a .414 OBP)

The Bobby Dee story scares the beJesus out of me, but I don't think Casas is him. Bobby Dee never carried over his decent OBP from the minors, like Tristan did.

I know Casas is quirky and a lumbering load of lard who couldn't field better than anyone's grandma, but the guy is a hitter.

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Without Devers and Bregman, it's a downgrade from the offense they started with in '25. 

C Narvaez

1B Casas

2B Romy

SS Story

3B Mayer

RF Abreu

CF Rafaela

LF Anthony

DH Duran

It's a huge downgrade, despite them only totally about 830 PAs in 2025.

We hear, "Oh, Anthony will go from 300 to 600 PAs, next year, so..." So what? I ask. That's just 350 out of the 830 lost- not even half.

Now, consider this, we are looking at losing 4 of our top 6 OPS+ guys from 2025- not just Breggie and Devers!

151 Devers (334 PAs) 1st

131 Refsnyder (209) 3rd behind Anthony at 140

128 Bregman (495)

121 Nate Lowe (119) 6th behind Romy at 128 who may not repeat 2025 numbers.

Anthony adding 325 PAs is more like replacing Lowe and Ref's PA totals.

We ended the season realizing we needed an upgrade on our 2025 offense, and then we move he starting point to minus about 1050 of our best batters in the season.

Here is what we are starting with (assuming no Lowe and FAs leaving)

140 Anthony (303 with a possible sophomore slump coming)

128 Romy (341 with this being a likely outlier season)

116 Abreu (417 with mostly platoon action, when healthy)

114 Duran (696 and some loonies are insisting we trade him)

105 Eaton (90)

104 Story (654 at age 33)

100 Narvaez (446 as a rookie)

We need to make up for the loss then double that.