Article: Boston Red Sox Arbitration Decisions & Projections: Triston Casas

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Without Devers and Bregman, it's a downgrade from the offense they started with in '25. 

C Narvaez

1B Casas

2B Romy

SS Story

3B Mayer

RF Abreu

CF Rafaela

LF Anthony

DH Duran

It's a huge downgrade, despite them only totally about 830 PAs in 2025.

We hear, "Oh, Anthony will go from 300 to 600 PAs, next year, so..." So what? I ask. That's just 350 out of the 830 lost- not even half.

Now, consider this, we are looking at losing 4 of our top 6 OPS+ guys from 2025- not just Breggie and Devers!

151 Devers (334 PAs) 1st

131 Refsnyder (209) 3rd behind Anthony at 140

128 Bregman (495)

121 Nate Lowe (119) 6th behind Romy at 128 who may not repeat 2025 numbers.

Anthony adding 325 PAs is more like replacing Lowe and Ref's PA totals.

We ended the season realizing we needed an upgrade on our 2025 offense, and then we move he starting point to minus about 1050 of our best batters in the season.

Here is what we are starting with (assuming no Lowe and FAs leaving)

140 Anthony (303 with a possible sophomore slump coming)

128 Romy (341 with this being a likely outlier season)

116 Abreu (417 with mostly platoon action, when healthy)

114 Duran (696 and some loonies are insisting we trade him)

105 Eaton (90)

104 Story (654 at age 33)

100 Narvaez (446 as a rookie)

We need to make up for the loss then double that.

 

 

[drewski6]

21 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Ya’ll are nuts for thinking Casas has trade value right now.  The upside is in keeping him, but I’d have little issue with the team moving on at first base and letting Casas hit his way back there.

of course, that creates a Yoshida issue again

if casas cant clear yoshida, then youve got your answer

for the same money? id rather have yoshida.

[moonslav59]

Just now, drewski6 said:

if casas cant clear yoshida, then youve got your answer

for the same money? id rather have yoshida.

If you knew both would be healthy and give you 650 PAs, then what?

[drewski6]

4 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

This is exactly my take as well, I can see why some are a little edgy about that because he started off last season in a slump and got hurt before he ever really got it going. 

But if Casas comes back healthy, Story of 25 shows up, and Mayer/Anthony are back healthy I think the offense even without any additions could at the very least get a little better.  They really should. 

no way.  unless you mean the team that ended last season with no devers, ra, mayer, casas, and bregman in a slump, that had yoshida hitting cleanup - maybe better than that.

But no way better than last years team at the beginning full strength

A team that trades durant for pitching and enters with

RA
Story
Casas
Wilyer
Yoshida
Nav
Mayer
Campbell
Cedanne

Even if this team stays healthy and you get a good pitcher for durant so you have crochet, acquired pitcher, bello, early and return the same bp

you are third place at best, but more likely fourth

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If you knew both would be healthy and give you 650 PAs, then what?

yoshida

[drewski6]

i like casas more when he isnt healthy

I think when healthy, casas is the absolute slowest player in mlb, and i think he'll hit .190. And id rather him strikeout than draw a walk because then we dont have the slowest dude in mlb massachusetts stuck at 1b.

You wanna talk wall ball singles? casas is 2 cheeseburgers away from wall-ball being thrown out at first base.

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

i like casas more when he isnt healthy

I think when healthy, casas is the absolute slowest player in mlb, and i think he'll hit .190. And id rather him strikeout than draw a walk because then we dont have the slowest dude in mlb massachusetts stuck at 1b.

You wanna talk wall ball singles? casas is 2 cheeseburgers away from wall-ball being thrown out at first base.

Yoshida is the ground ball to 2B poster boy.

Okay, his BA is 40 points above Casas, but his OBP is lower by 10.

Casas is 25 points ahead of Masa in SLG %.

I'll take the slow poke who can hit 35 bombs and get on base more often. That's not even counting age regression and progression.

 

[harmony]

10 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

There's a scenario where he never makes it back to MLB, so sure. 

Quote

 

Posted 10 hours ago

  On 10/27/2025 at 11:47 AM, harmony said:

Does anyone agree with Baseball Trade Values that Triston Casas currently has 0 surplus value?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=triston+casas&page=1

 

Baseball Trade Values also assigns 0 surplus value to Seattle right-hander Emerson Hancock, a 26-year-old former first-round pick with five years of team control.

Would anyone trade three arbitration seasons of Triston Casas for five years of Hancock?

As the season progressed the Mariners converted Hancock to the bullpen even though Hancock had tossed a nifty quality start in April at Fenway Park:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS202504230.shtml

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, harmony said:

Baseball Trade Values also assigns 0 surplus value to Seattle right-hander Emerson Hancock, a 26-year-old former first-round pick with five years of team control.

Would anyone trade three arbitration seasons of Triston Casas for five years of Hancock?

As the season progressed the Mariners converted Hancock to the bullpen even though Hancock had tossed a nifty quality start in April at Fenway Park:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS202504230.shtml

I would not do it.

We have a great need at 1B and have plenty of younger pitchers with some significant level of promise.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Baseball Trade Values also assigns 0 surplus value to Seattle right-hander Emerson Hancock, a 26-year-old former first-round pick with five years of team control.

Would anyone trade three arbitration seasons of Triston Casas for five years of Hancock?

As the season progressed the Mariners converted Hancock to the bullpen even though Hancock had tossed a nifty quality start in April at Fenway Park:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS202504230.shtml

i'd love to see Emerson in a REd Sox uni. if the Sox could sign Alonso, i'd do it in a second.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'd love to see Emerson in a REd Sox uni. if the Sox could sign Alonso, i'd do it in a second.

I doubt having Casas is preventing Alonso.

[harmony]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'd love to see Emerson in a REd Sox uni. if the Sox could sign Alonso, i'd do it in a second.

Don't confuse right-hander Emerson Hancock with Seattle prospect Colt Emerson, a 20-year-old infielder ranked ninth overall on MLB.com's Top 100 prospect list:

https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects

[Duran Is The Man]

10 hours ago, harmony said:

Don't confuse right-hander Emerson Hancock with Seattle prospect Colt Emerson, a 20-year-old infielder ranked ninth overall on MLB.com's Top 100 prospect list:

https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects

 i attended over 100 baseball games this year -69 Travelers in Little Rock, AR (i have season tickets) along with Rainers games in OKC, Sugarland, ABQ, El Paso, Round Rock & Las Vegas and a Seattle series in KC. so yeah, i know exactly who they are.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How can a guy who threw 90 innings for a first place team -- more than everyone on the pitching staff except for the regular starting rotation -- have ZERO VALUE?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

How can a guy who threw 90 innings for a first place team -- more than everyone on the pitching staff except for the regular starting rotation -- have ZERO VALUE?

We gave Buehler 112 IP.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We gave Buehler 112 IP.

He pitched for a third-place team.

Seattle handed the ball to Hancock in 22 games, so he had value to someone over there. Hancock only had a -0.2 WAR, but that was still better than -0.8 Mariner Bryce Miller, another 26-year old.

I'd still take either over broken-down Buehler at this point.

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

He pitched for a third-place team.

Seattle handed the ball to Hancock in 22 games, so he had value to someone over there. Hancock only had a -0.2 WAR, but that was still better than -0.8 Mariner Bryce Miller, another 26-year old.

I'd still take either over broken-down Buehler at this point.

SEA had one more win than the Sox, and had we not used Buehler for 112 IP, we'd maybe have passed them.

[harmony]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

How can a guy who threw 90 innings for a first place team -- more than everyone on the pitching staff except for the regular starting rotation -- have ZERO VALUE?

Emerson Hancock posted 0.0 fWAR and a negative 0.2 bWAR over those 90 innings.

WAR calculations penalize Seattle pitchers for the perhaps outdated T-Mobile Park factors.

[JoeBrady]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If you knew both would be healthy and give you 650 PAs, then what?

Casas.  In the three years prior to 2025, Casas had a 126 OPS+ and nominally plays a position.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

SEA had one more win than the Sox, and had we not used Buehler for 112 IP, we'd maybe have passed them.

But that one win difference could be also be attributed to Hancock beating Boston and Sean Newcombe at Fenway back in April. There's more than ZERO VALUE in that for the M's...

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But that one win difference could be also be attributed to Hancock beating Boston and Sean Newcombe at Fenway back in April. There's more than ZERO VALUE in that for the M's...

That one win was more attributable to playing in an easier division.

Strength of schedule: 5th Sox & 13th SEA.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Casas.  In the three years prior to 2025, Casas had a 126 OPS+ and nominally plays a position.

Tristan has had more proven success and wildly more upside potential. (More downside, too.)

[Hugh2]

18 hours ago, drewski6 said:

no way.  unless you mean the team that ended last season with no devers, ra, mayer, casas, and bregman in a slump, that had yoshida hitting cleanup - maybe better than that.

But no way better than last years team at the beginning full strength

A team that trades durant for pitching and enters with

RA
Story
Casas
Wilyer
Yoshida
Nav
Mayer
Campbell
Cedanne

Even if this team stays healthy and you get a good pitcher for durant so you have crochet, acquired pitcher, bello, early and return the same bp

you are third place at best, but more likely fourth

I assume a team that is very young gets better.  Not a sure bet, but a good one. 

And 4th place? 3rd at best? 

Who assumes a young team flush in talent and more coming up regresses going into the next year?

[Hugh2]

18 hours ago, drewski6 said:

if casas cant clear yoshida, then youve got your answer

for the same money? id rather have yoshida.

The same money? so you want to give Casas a 16-17 million dollar raise? Casas is under team control. He offers significantly more upside than Casas, but yes if Casas doens't look good or healhty I'd rather have Yoshida as well. 

[notin]

18 hours ago, drewski6 said:

i like casas more when he isnt healthy

I think when healthy, casas is the absolute slowest player in mlb, and i think he'll hit .190. And id rather him strikeout than draw a walk because then we dont have the slowest dude in mlb massachusetts stuck at 1b.

You wanna talk wall ball singles? casas is 2 cheeseburgers away from wall-ball being thrown out at first base.

Casas actually isnt the slowest player in MLB, but he got closer to that honor with the retirement of Martin Maldonado.   He is in the bottom 10 per StatCast.   Not the bottom ten percent.  The bottom 10…

[notin]

Casas is a no-brainer to offer arbitration to, especially if you’re a team that frequently pays SPs $10mill to rehab from TJ for a year.

In his only full season, Casas had an .856 OPS with 25HRs.  That’s pretty serious potential to skimp $2-3 mill on for a team that currently would be starting Romy Gonzalez at 1b. (Assuming Nate Lowe does get non-tendered, which he should.)

 

[mvp 78]

You pay Casas ARB this year to rehab and get back. If he still looks limited by the injury in September, you can let him go then. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You pay Casas ARB this year to rehab and get back. If he still looks limited by the injury in September, you can let him go then. 

Sounds about right.

He has way too much upside to cut loose, especially when one of our biggest needs is power. His decent OBP is a bonus.

[mvp 78]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sounds about right.

He has way too much upside to cut loose, especially when one of our biggest needs is power. His decent OBP is a bonus.

Salary is low, the ceiling is still high (just the likelihood of getting there is a smaller %). No reason to worry about his 40 man spot yet. They can stash him for awhile. They never used Grissom all last season and a rehabbing Casas is far more important than '25 Grissom ever was. 

[drewski6]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yoshida is the ground ball to 2B poster boy.

Okay, his BA is 40 points above Casas, but his OBP is lower by 10.

Casas is 25 points ahead of Masa in SLG %.

I'll take the slow poke who can hit 35 bombs and get on base more often. That's not even counting age regression and progression.

 

good points, ive said that im fine with one of schwarber or alonso and letting the casas vs yoshida battle for the other.

I give 0 casas 0 points for first base, as i figure any of the above can play 1b at least as adequately. Especially yoshida (giving up a bit of reach)