Article: Hunter Greene, Rumored Red Sox Trade Target, Will Cost an Arm, A Leg, and More

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Music to JH's ears. He needs that for his boat. 

https://www.superyachtfan.com/yacht/elysian/

And for blunts to light the fireplace for winter pics

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

And for blunts to light the fireplace for winter pics

I'm sure he has a nice stick ready to go whenever Brezzz saves him $$$. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Music to JH's ears. He needs that for his boat. 

https://www.superyachtfan.com/yacht/elysian/

It might pay the bar tab.

[Kimmi]

On 10/22/2025 at 5:12 PM, moonslav59 said:

We've done this, and may end up missing on one or two, but we aren't likely to win without some kind of major boost. 

4 years deals don't get those big boost guys, anymore

I understand that we have to fill in the gaps somehow, either through free agency or through trades.  I also understand that we're likely not getting an impact guy on a 4-year deal.  It doesn't mean that I have to like it.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I understand that we have to fill in the gaps somehow, either through free agency or through trades.  I also understand that we're likely not getting an impact guy on a 4-year deal.  It doesn't mean that I have to like it.

I fully understand your position, and with our record on deals longer that 4 years, I realize the risk involved.

I've actually suggested going after two guys, only because they will likely get less than 5 years and maybe even 2-3 years: Merrill Kelly and E Suarez. Now, there is heightened risk with them, because of their ages, but I'm thinking their risks are not any worse than signing a 6-10 year deal with someone younger.

[Kimmi]

The players are just as greedy as the owners.  We have one player opting out of a guaranteed $80M over 2 years to get more money.  We had another player who declined $300M.  Greedy billionaires versus greedy  millionaires?  I don't care who gets the money.  

Contrary to popular opinion, I'm not trying to save Henry any money.  I am just so fundamentally opposed to the outrageous trend in free agent contracts.  I don't want to see my team become the Dodgers.  I'd rather be Tampa Bay North, if I had to pick an extreme.

[Kimmi]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I fully understand your position, and with our record on deals longer that 4 years, I realize the risk involved.

I've actually suggested going after two guys, only because they will likely get less than 5 years and maybe even 2-3 years: Merrill Kelly and E Suarez. Now, there is heightened risk with them, because of their ages, but I'm thinking their risks are not any worse than signing a 6-10 year deal with someone younger.

I do not disagree with your thinking here.

For me, the shorter the deal, the better.  

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I do not disagree with your thinking here.

For me, the shorter the deal, the better.  

Of course, ther risk of failure or steep decline is higher, but at least it's not a 5, 6 year or longer bust.

[moonslav59]

RHB Eugenio Suarez turns 35 in mid July. He's played over 145 games for 5 straight seasons. In his last 4 seasons, he's had these OPS+:

129 in '22

103 in '23 (kinda scary)

115 in '24

126 in '25 (94 w SEA after trade)

4 year total 118. He's had a dWAR of 0.0 in the same period of time, but he was minus in DRS and OOA in 2015 at 3B. ('22-'24: -8 DRS but +13 OAA.) I'm thinking he'd be a plus at 1B and offer depth at 3B, if Mayer gets hurt.

He's a risk, but he seems to be aging well. Maybe he'll take $70M/3?

RHP Merrill Kelly just turned 87....errr...I mean 37. That's pretty damn old for a pitcher, and he had an injury in 2024, but he had 33, 30 and 32 in the other 3 seasons since 2022. His ERA+ has been between 104 ('24) to 133 ('23) and sits at a pretty awesome 120 from '22-'25. FIP 3.81.

It's hard to project his future and risk potential, but maybe he takes a 2 years deal- maybe $45M/2.

Together, those deals total about $45M AAV, which is about how far below the the tax line we are projected for 2026. If we choose to stay under, that would be all we could add, without cutting some salary or trading equal salary amounts. (Duran makes $8M AAV and Campbell $7.5M AAV- Lodolo makes less. Hint-hint.)

[mvp 78]

If Suarez is a 1b, his value goes down to well below 20M AAV. At his age, why would he get 3 years with those high AAV's? Walker got 3/60 last year, but he's gold glove caliber defensively at 1b with 120 OPS+. 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Suarez is a 1b, his value goes down to well below 20M AAV. At his age, why would he get 3 years with those high AAV's? Walker got 3/60 last year, but he's gold glove caliber defensively at 1b with 120 OPS+. 

If he doesn't get $20AAV all the more reason to sign him. His ability to add 3B depth is something Casas and Campbell can't do. (Maybe Romy can, but we don't want him as our FT 1Bman.)

Walker is a great example of a warning on signing these aging players.

I'd rather we sign Alonso and or trade for K Marte, but I was addressing the issue with long term deals. Like Walker, Suarez will not get a long term deal, and even 3 years might be a push.

$40M/2 might be what gets him to sign. Maybe $38M/2 with a 3rd year option at $15M w a $4M buyout- making it $42M/2 or $55M/3 (team's choice.)

[JoeBrady]

On 10/22/2025 at 8:33 AM, mvp 78 said:

Ewww, no. 

No.  Ceddanne had a 4.8 bWAR, is a platinum-caliber CF, is improving as a hitter, and has one of the best contracts in baseball.  I'd be loathe to trade him straight-up for Greene.  Like, maybe, but I wouldn't be adding other prospects.  We can get other, lower-ranked pitchers, for far less.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

No.  Ceddanne had a 4.8 bWAR, is a platinum-caliber CF, is improving as a hitter, and has one of the best contracts in baseball.  I'd be loathe to trade him straight-up for Greene.  Like, maybe, but I wouldn't be adding other prospects.  We can get other, lower-ranked pitchers, for far less.

I don't know how much his bat will ever develop because of that hit tool. He just needs to swing. It's in his DNA. It will hold him back. I doubt the Sox would trade him because the value his glove brings vs his overall contract. I also don't want Campbell or Garcia put in the position to be an Opening Day starter in the OF. Going from a surplus to a deficit seems bad IMO. 

[JoeBrady]

15 hours ago, Kimmi said:

The players are just as greedy as the owners.  We have one player opting out of a guaranteed $80M over 2 years to get more money.  We had another player who declined $300M.  Greedy billionaires versus greedy  millionaires?  I don't care who gets the money.  

Contrary to popular opinion, I'm not trying to save Henry any money.  I am just so fundamentally opposed to the outrageous trend in free agent contracts.  I don't want to see my team become the Dodgers.  I'd rather be Tampa Bay North, if I had to pick an extreme.

I don't care who gets my money either, but I understand that both parties have the right to make decisions on their own best interests.  The PV of Bregman's contract is ~ $63M/2.  If someone offers him, say $150M/5, I can't blame him for taking the extra $87M.

[JoeBrady]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

RHB Eugenio Suarez turns 35 in mid July. He's played over 145 games for 5 straight seasons. In his last 4 seasons, he's had these OPS+:

129 in '22

103 in '23 (kinda scary)

115 in '24

126 in '25 (94 w SEA after trade)

4 year total 118. He's had a dWAR of 0.0 in the same period of time, but he was minus in DRS and OOA in 2015 at 3B. ('22-'24: -8 DRS but +13 OAA.) I'm thinking he'd be a plus at 1B and offer depth at 3B, if Mayer gets hurt.

He's a risk, but he seems to be aging well. Maybe he'll take $70M/3?

RHP Merrill Kelly just turned 87....errr...I mean 37. That's pretty damn old for a pitcher, and he had an injury in 2024, but he had 33, 30 and 32 in the other 3 seasons since 2022. His ERA+ has been between 104 ('24) to 133 ('23) and sits at a pretty awesome 120 from '22-'25. FIP 3.81.

It's hard to project his future and risk potential, but maybe he takes a 2 years deal- maybe $45M/2.

Together, those deals total about $45M AAV, which is about how far below the the tax line we are projected for 2026. If we choose to stay under, that would be all we could add, without cutting some salary or trading equal salary amounts. (Duran makes $8M AAV and Campbell $7.5M AAV- Lodolo makes less. Hint-hint.)

I'd rather go bigger than Kelly, but he is a good 2-year target.  He finished fine, so one would expect at least one good year.  So two years is low risk.

But if I was going to pay Suarez $23M * 3, I'd go higher and aim for Alonso, again depending on price.  Alonso could be younger at the end of his contract than Suarez is at the start of his.

[JoeBrady]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't know how much his bat will ever develop because of that hit tool. He just needs to swing. It's in his DNA. It will hold him back. I doubt the Sox would trade him because the value his glove brings vs his overall contract. I also don't want Campbell or Garcia put in the position to be an Opening Day starter in the OF. Going from a surplus to a deficit seems bad IMO. 

I could trade either or both of Campbell and Garcia, plus Abreu or Duran, but not both.  I'd like to see an OF of Duran/Rafaela/Anthony, or Anthony/Rafaela/Abreu.  With Refsnyder, that's a very, very good OF.  And given the number of years we have left with them, there really isn't a position for either Campbell or Garcia.

And it becomes more complicated, but we could also have a basket of Campbell, Garcia, either Duran or Abreu, Casas, plus some good but non-elite prospects, and make more than one trade.  

[notin]

19 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd rather go bigger than Kelly, but he is a good 2-year target.  He finished fine, so one would expect at least one good year.  So two years is low risk.

But if I was going to pay Suarez $23M * 3, I'd go higher and aim for Alonso, again depending on price.  Alonso could be younger at the end of his contract than Suarez is at the start of his.

Alonso wants 7 years, but the list of 31yo first basemen to get 7 year deals is pretty small.

1.

End of list.

Freddie Freeman did get a 6 year deal at age 32, which is the closest precedent, but Freeman is a future HOF whereas Alonso is not.  Given that Alonso struggled to get an acceptable deal last off-season at 1 year younger, I have my doubts about anyone giving him 7 years this year at one year older, and I don’t think the lack of a QO this year (he’s ineligible) is going to make up the difference.  
 

Five years? Maybe.  If it comes down to 34yo Suárez at  2yrs $40mill or Alonso at 5yrs $125mill, I take Alonso.  The problem with the longer deals is usually the last year or two of decline.  I think it makes more sense to pay Alonso for ages 31 through 35 than pay Suarez for ages 34 and 35 alone.   You save money with Suarez, but only by not getting the younger and presumably more productive years…

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

No.  Ceddanne had a 4.8 bWAR, is a platinum-caliber CF, is improving as a hitter, and has one of the best contracts in baseball.  I'd be loathe to trade him straight-up for Greene.  Like, maybe, but I wouldn't be adding other prospects.  We can get other, lower-ranked pitchers, for far less.

I love Rafaela, but I'd trade him for Greene or even Lodolo straight up, but I think Cincy wants offense.

I'm not sure they view Casas, Campbell or Garcia as the offense they need, but I'd add one of them to Rafaela to get Greene. Trading two RHB OF'ers might not look right, but Rafaela is not a good batter and actually has slight reverse splits. We could bring Refsnyder back to bridge to Campbell or Garcia- whichever we keep.

Rafaela + Campbell + Clarke for Greene would do it for me. (Keep Garcia- the better defender)

LF: Duran- Refsnyder/Garcia

CF: Anthony- Garcia (Duran)

RF: Abreu-Refsnyder/Garcia (Anthony)

 

[JoeBrady]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't know how much his bat will ever develop because of that hit tool. He just needs to swing. It's in his DNA. It will hold him back. I doubt the Sox would trade him because the value his glove brings vs his overall contract. I also don't want Campbell or Garcia put in the position to be an Opening Day starter in the OF. Going from a surplus to a deficit seems bad IMO. 

IRT to Ceddanne, he improved his K/W from 151/15 to 117/28 in one year.  I think he could easily become an above average hitter.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Alonso wants 7 years, but the list of 31yo first basemen to get 7 year deals is pretty small.

1.

End of list.

Freddie Freeman did get a 6 year deal at age 32, which is the closest precedent, but Freeman is a future HOF whereas Alonso is not.  Given that Alonso struggled to get an acceptable deal last off-season at 1 year younger, I have my doubts about anyone giving him 7 years this year at one year older, and I don’t think the lack of a QO this year (he’s ineligible) is going to make up the difference.  
 

Five years? Maybe.  If it comes down to 36yo Suárez at  2yrs $40mill or Alonso at 5yrs $125mill, I take Alonso.  The problem with the longer deals is usually the last year or two of decline.  I think it makes more sense to pay Alonso for ages 31 through 35 than pay Suarez for ages 34 and 35 alone.   You save money with Suarez, but only by not getting the younger and presumably more productive years…

Agreed, and Alonso a age 34-35 might outhit Suarez at age 34-35. (Note: Suarez just turned 34, so 2 yrs would be ages 34-35 not 36.)

Suarez would be better on D at 1B and would provide the 3B depth we need.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

IRT to Ceddanne, he improved his K/W from 151/15 to 117/28 in one year.  I think he could easily become an above average hitter.

His final OPS was very close to the league average in 2025, as it is.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

IRT to Ceddanne, he improved his K/W from 151/15 to 117/28 in one year.  I think he could easily become an above average hitter.

I'm less concerned about Rafaela's k % and his overall approach of being a bad ball hitter. He only had 3.61 pitches per PA. His looking k % was 16.5% (league av is 25). His swung at strikes % was 83.5 (league av is 75). Percentage of pitches swung at was 58.9% (av is 48). First pitch swing was 48.9% (av is 32.7). Out of zone swing % is 45!!! He's an outlier in all of these categories. 

[drewski6]

27 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I could trade either or both of Campbell and Garcia, plus Abreu or Duran, but not both.  I'd like to see an OF of Duran/Rafaela/Anthony, or Anthony/Rafaela/Abreu.  With Refsnyder, that's a very, very good OF.  And given the number of years we have left with them, there really isn't a position for either Campbell or Garcia.

And it becomes more complicated, but we could also have a basket of Campbell, Garcia, either Duran or Abreu, Casas, plus some good but non-elite prospects, and make more than one trade.  

Injuries and slumps will continue to happen at a pace where you may think that your team is cursed or hit especially hard by the bug, but its just a noticeable increase league wide

trading blocked prospects is how you find yourself playing dudes directly off waivers like eaton and lowe or pretty much scrambling

im a fan of hoarding, but i also understand that we have finite resources and holes to plug, so sometimes you gotta

but its worth noting that campbell/garcia provide plus depth.

[drewski6]

23 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

IRT to Ceddanne, he improved his K/W from 151/15 to 117/28 in one year.  I think he could easily become an above average hitter.

Well the first 10 pounds are easier to lose than the next 10 pounds if you catch my drift.

He had nowhere to go but up from a k/w perspective so of course it went up. Doesnt mean the trend will continue.

You would never ever ever get Greene for him straight up, thats silly to even suggest turning that down.

[Duran Is The Man]

39 minutes ago, notin said:

Alonso wants 7 years, but the list of 31yo first basemen to get 7 year deals is pretty small.

1.

End of list.

Freddie Freeman did get a 6 year deal at age 32, which is the closest precedent, but Freeman is a future HOF whereas Alonso is not.  Given that Alonso struggled to get an acceptable deal last off-season at 1 year younger, I have my doubts about anyone giving him 7 years this year at one year older, and I don’t think the lack of a QO this year (he’s ineligible) is going to make up the difference.  
 

Five years? Maybe.  If it comes down to 34yo Suárez at  2yrs $40mill or Alonso at 5yrs $125mill, I take Alonso.  The problem with the longer deals is usually the last year or two of decline.  I think it makes more sense to pay Alonso for ages 31 through 35 than pay Suarez for ages 34 and 35 alone.   You save money with Suarez, but only by not getting the younger and presumably more productive years…

i'd give him 7 if that's what it took to get him. signing him would also allow us to trade Casas.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Duran Is The Man said:

i'd give him 7 if that's what it took to get him. signing him would also allow us to trade Casas.

Why trade Casas now? He's injured and has no value. His contract is peanuts. Just stash him in AAA until he looks healthy enough to build value again. 

[Duran Is The Man]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why trade Casas now? He's injured and has no value. His contract is peanuts. Just stash him in AAA until he looks healthy enough to build value again. 

agreed. i didn't say trade him now.

[notin]

12 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'd give him 7 if that's what it took to get him. signing him would also allow us to trade Casas.

Trade Casas for what?

His stock is so low it could limbo under a rug!

[mvp 78]

Casas is ARB eligible this year and has only amassed 2.2 fWAR his whole career. His best season was only 1.5 fWAR. That was supposed to be just the beginning. This is three years later and we're still waiting on him to even reach his 50 percentile outcome. With this injury, I really see him struggling to get back and am not counting on him. I don't see him ever hitting like '23 again. 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Casas is ARB eligible this year and has only amassed 2.2 fWAR his whole career. His best season was only 1.5 fWAR. That was supposed to be just the beginning. This is three years later and we're still waiting on him to even reach his 50 percentile outcome. With this injury, I really see him struggling to get back and am not counting on him. I don't see him ever hitting like '23 again. 

He's a hard one to project. He could hit 30-40 dingers, if he can get 650 PAs.

He could hit .725 with 20 HRs.

He could get hurt again and give us nothing.