A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

So the -0.6 bWAR over the -0.4 bWAR.  And taking the higher negative WAR is maybe offset by disturbing the pitchers' rythmns?

I think the hope is a guy like O'Hoppe is just in a short term funk.

I'm not for adding a catcher, unless he's clearly better.

[moonslav59]

Hard to know who the sellers are!

[moonslav59]

Most deals happen near the final minutes, but we may see some soon.

The sellers should be KCR,  ATH, LAA, DET, TOR, COL, NYM, SFG, CIN and probably STL, MIA, WSH & PIT. Maybe SEA & BAL.

I think HOU should but won't.

[Larry Cook]

On 7/30/2026 at 6:08 AM, moonslav59 said:

fWAR since May 27th:

1.5 Bennett

1.1 Tolle

1.1 Gray

Wow!!!  Mind blowing stat if the day 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Wow!!!  Mind blowing stat if the day 

Bennett da man!

[Larry Cook]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bennett da man!

After watching his last game, I wonder if Bennett is running out of gas ????

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

After watching his last game, I wonder if Bennett is running out of gas ????

Hard to tell. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I think he bounces back strong.

[moonslav59]

I'd like to avoid losing good prospects for rentals, but that is often the case at deadlines. Getting longer term players usually costs was more at the deadline than during winter months. Look at Brez's winter trades, and it kinds makes me wanna scream, "Don't overpay- wait for next winter!" but we have a nice looking team with a chance to advance, so what will we do?

Thinking in terms on 2027 and beyond and our 2026 needs, I think with Early being traded, Gray probably becoming a FA and Tolle & Bennett on limited IP plans, trading for a SP has to be a top priority.

In terms of prioritizing everyday positional needs with 2027 and beyond as a major factor, here is how I might rank our priorities in reverse order (most set positions listed first.)

1. CF: Rafaela is set for CF for many years. (Azocar is 19 and could be a top prospect soon.)

2. RF: Abreu is set for 3 more arbs. (Azocar could replace Abreu.)

3. 3B: Durbin has impressed me enough to think we are set here for 4+ years.

4. 1B: May have some scary depth issues, but Romy and Mead are not bad, and the flickering hopes of a Casas return remain. Contreras is old, but he has another season plus a team option, so 1B is not a top priority, yet. (Gonzales offers some future distant hopes.)

That's 4 slots I see as all set, for now. In baseball anything can change on a dime. The next positions are more volatile, skeptical and difficult to project, but I'll take a stab at it:

5. LF: I'm still a believer in Anthony and have to think he offer more long term hopes than other position players in these next slots.  I've all but written off Duran- okay- I have already, Yoshida and Jones are the current starters. They would make LF near the top priority, if I was looking at just 2026. This screams of a rental trade, here, and then roll the dice on Anthony. Gonzales and Azocar are long away pieces that could help, but not now and not in 2027.

6. 2B: I debated making this #5 as Mead looks like he could be the next Durbin but with power. Having Seigler, Monasterio, Romy, Mayer and maybe even Story in the mix for 2027 and beyond moves 2B ahead of those listed next. (Arias could push every SS in the system to a 2B outlook for many years to come.... or not.)

7. DH: While some may place this at #8 or 9, I see the DH position as one where some other positional players can DH often or sparely and give it a boost. Yoshida has another year, and Romy has been a top 20 batter vs LHPs since 2024. They make a decent platoon. Depending on the LF situation, Anthony could be used here. If Casas every gets straightened out, I always saw him as a DH. It might help with hsi fragility, although he seems to get hurt when he sneezes, so maybe it won't help. Maybe Brannon, Cespedes or Gonzales can help here before too long and longer. #7 is pretty close to #8 and #9.

8. SS: Arias kinda makes this slot one massive wild card. I hate to put too much hope on a guy who just got to AAA to become a force in 2027. It's speculative enough to pencil him in as a sure bet for 2028 and beyond. That's why I put SS at #8. Story should play 2B, be traded or maybe even DH, if his bat returns. Mayer is a coin toss, and could play 2B and 3B, too, if he earns it. He'd have to be really good to beat out Durbin and Mead. Beating Arias & Story seems his best shot. TBH, I don't have a ton of faith in any of these guys for 2026 and 2027. Monasterio, IKF and Cheng could be okay for 2026, but I could see a trade for a rental or longer term SS, now.

C: I know some disagree, here, but Wong is too up and down on offense, although his defense has improved. Marvaez looked like a keeper, last year, but has looked totally clueless at bat, all year long. He's barely even had a decent 5 game stretch. We have some decent looking offensive catchers in the system, but many may end up at 1B or DH and maybe Jo Garcia is the closest to the bigs, right now. Yup, catcher is a big need now and going forward. If we do trade for a longer term player, Catcher might be the best slot to look. Expensive, too. (SS is second to me.)

Sorry for rambling.

[moonslav59]

The price for long term Catchers is probably way too high. It's too high in the winter, too, but now would likely be foolishly too high. I get that. I've been talking up Jeffers as a Catcher/DH rental, but his cost may be too high, too, and he doesn't add much power. I'm also thinking a LHB might be better than a RHB, so maybe two strikes on Jeffers might be enough to say no.

Francisco Alvarez seems ideal, but with so many years of control, the Mets would want a mega-haul. Goodman turns 27, soon, so he is peak prime, but he K's a lot. His OBP is around .320-.325, so to me that kinda evens out the high Ks, but if he's more of a DH, that's 2-3 strikes and a no for me. Liam Hicks might be the best choice, but why would MIA trade a 27 year old pre-arb catcher? They do DH Hicks a lot, so I worry about his defense.

The price for SSs is about as high as it gets. Waiting for the winter or Arias might be the best option there, too. Abrams is a game-changer on offense, but again, at what mid-season cost?

Maybe our best options might be...

1 or 2 from:

P Mize (Gausman, Holmes, Wacha, Lugo)

2B Arraez/G Torres

C Jeffers (T Stephenson)

LHB Nate Lowe DH/1B (Springer?)

[Larry Cook]

Arias is the real deal, bring him up if we must have a shortstop and use our prospects to trade a pitcher 

[moonslav59]

I’m not against this idea, although I do not have an optimistic view on the start of his MLB career smack in the peak of a run at a ring.

Monasterio is doing what I hope Arias can do, so I’m not sure now is the time to promote Arias. I know this sounds contradictory, since I’ve been putting the SS in the top 2-3 high needs list, but this whole season seems to be contradictory to everything logical and sensible, right?

, 

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

At this point Narvaez is unplayable. They have to go with Wong as unappealing as that is, at least we have a chance at a hit with Connor.  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

At this point Narvaez is unplayable. They have to go with Wong as unappealing as that is, at least we have a chance at a hit with Connor.  

Agree.

Narvaez is the remaining black hole still playing.

At least Duran bats in some runs.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

this whole season seems to be contradictory to everything logical and sensible, right?

This is the theme to the Red Sox season and actually for the forum this summer.

Therefore, everyone that bickers about past debates should lighten up, and anyone who makes suggestions -- however some deem outlandish -- for trades or improvements should be welcomed and hailed.

I have noticed that even posters who once thrived on disparaging or refuting-with-stats other opinions have mellowed. The reason, the 2026 Red Sox have amply amped, is so simple:

Nobody knows nothing, so everyone knows everything.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Nobody knows nothing, so everyone knows everything.

Sounds like a Leonard Cohen song.

[JoeBrady]

28 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Therefore, everyone that bickers about past debates should lighten up, and anyone who makes suggestions -- however some deem outlandish -- for trades or improvements should be welcomed and hailed.

So no more annual Devers debates?

And most of the bickering, imho, is about fans using really small samples sizes for opinions.  I'd make a substantial wager that there have been calls to get rid of at least half the team.

IRT trades, I love to hear different opinions.  If I had one minor critique, we have a lot of posts about players that will almost certainly not be available.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

So no more annual Devers debates?

And most of the bickering, imho, is about fans using really small samples sizes for opinions.  I'd make a substantial wager that there have been calls to get rid of at least half the team.

IRT trades, I love to hear different opinions.  If I had one minor critique, we have a lot of posts about players that will almost certainly not be available.

Some wanted a near total teardown roster do-over.

A lot was based on the notion that the record is all that counts, and those trying to say we weren't "that bad" were kidding ourselves.

Some said our goal should be .500 and anything more was a pipedream or worse.

Some were shocked that it seemed like we improved on a decent 2025 team, but were doing so poorly that our record was near the worst in MLB after a somewhat decent sample size.

Pythagorean kept saying we were not a horrible team.

Of course, none of us expected to see the team start playing like the best team in MLB, and we probably will not continue like this, but this is a pretty damn good team and not many changes have been made, except replacing injured players with subs.

Since June 25th:

26-5 BOS

20-12 TBR

19-11 CHC

19-12 MIL

Since June 1st (2 months) This is about half the season to date!

33-18 BOS

33-20 MIL

31-20 LAD

30-20 DET & CHC

30-21 MIA

I think you can go back to May 27th and still show the Sox with the best record.

We've been the best team in MLB for longer than being near the worst.

Is it safe to believe, now?

[JoeBrady]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Some were shocked that it seemed like we improved on a decent 2025 team, but were doing so poorly that our record was near the worst in MLB after a somewhat decent sample size.

I also wondered about that.  I posted many, many times that the 25/26 off-seasons acquisitions were doing great, but it was hard to reconcile that with the fact that we had a decent+ team in 2025.  Who'd have believed that Monasterio, Seigler, etc., would be such a big upgrade over Story & Mayer.  I'm not bashing them, but when you already have a light-hitting catching tandem, you can't have two other holes in your lineup.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I also wondered about that.  I posted many, many times that the 25/26 off-seasons acquisitions were doing great, but it was hard to reconcile that with the fact that we had a decent+ team in 2025. 

You were not alone. The Brez bashing rocketed despite many of us going over every winter move he made with a microscope.

[notin]

On 7/30/2026 at 12:25 PM, moonslav59 said:

I think the hope is a guy like O'Hoppe is just in a short term funk.

I'm not for adding a catcher, unless he's clearly better.

Of the two, it’s far more likely Narvaez is in a short term funk.  O’Hoppe has seen his OPS drop by large chunks for 3 straight years.  Narvaez was hitting as recently as 12 months ago…

[Old Red]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You were not alone. The Brez bashing rocketed despite many of us going over every winter move he made with a microscope.

Oh no! Say it ain’t so. Brez was bashed? Who would do such a thing? You honestly think Brez gets bashed on here? On here it’s pretty mild compared to all the other venues out there, but of course you wouldn’t know that. It’s mild for JH, it’s mild for Brez, and it’s definitely mild for the players like little a who’s been called a FLOP, on at least 3 other venues that I’ve heard. Just because a plane flew over Fenway pulling a banner saying fire Breslow, and many Red Sox fans would have personally driven bresLOW to the airport with a one way ticket I would hardly call that bashing.🤔

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Some wanted a near total teardown roster do-over.

A lot was based on the notion that the record is all that counts, and those trying to say we weren't "that bad" were kidding ourselves.

Some said our goal should be .500 and anything more was a pipedream or worse.

Some were shocked that it seemed like we improved on a decent 2025 team, but were doing so poorly that our record was near the worst in MLB after a somewhat decent sample size.

Pythagorean kept saying we were not a horrible team.

Of course, none of us expected to see the team start playing like the best team in MLB, and we probably will not continue like this, but this is a pretty damn good team and not many changes have been made, except replacing injured players with subs.

Since June 25th:

26-5 BOS

20-12 TBR

19-11 CHC

19-12 MIL

Since June 1st (2 months) This is about half the season to date!

33-18 BOS

33-20 MIL

31-20 LAD

30-20 DET & CHC

30-21 MIA

I think you can go back to May 27th and still show the Sox with the best record.

We've been the best team in MLB for longer than being near the worst.

Is it safe to believe, now?

Ah yes Pythagorean?There was an NBA coach this past offseason who said analytically they were winning the series. Unfortunately for them they didn’t, and their season was over. The record is all that counts? Last time I looked the record is what determines if a team gets into the postseason, or not. 🤭

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

So no more annual Devers debates?

And most of the bickering, imho, is about fans using really small samples sizes for opinions.  I'd make a substantial wager that there have been calls to get rid of at least half the team.

IRT trades, I love to hear different opinions.  If I had one minor critique, we have a lot of posts about players that will almost certainly not be available.

I agree I love small sample sizes. That’s what a game is a small sample size that’s played everyday, and counts everyday. If little a had the same kind of season last year that he has had this year he most likely wouldn’t have gotten all the hype, and expectations heaped on him on that sample size. Sometimes opinions work, and sometimes they don’t.🤫

[moonslav59]

Gotta love this trend. I’m not sure what is to come but it’s nice to see proof that making harsh judgments before all the facts are in is never a good idea.

that includes those thinking this is a ring team. By season end, they could be eating crow just like the nay sayers could be now.

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Gotta love this trend. I’m not sure what is to come but it’s nice to see proof that making harsh judgments before all the facts are in is never a good idea.

that includes those thinking this is a ring team. By season end, they could be eating crow just like the nay sayers could be now.

I’ve got some bad news for you. No one is eating crow. Harsh judgements? Bashing? Must be from the crybaby fans you’ve spoken about before. Most fans go with the flow, or the here, and now as I like to call it, and adjust to the situation as it changes. You don’t think bresLOW hasn’t changed his frame of mine from when the team was 14 games under 500 to now? I bet he has. From selling to buying. How much buying remains to be seen. You, and most on here was in a fire sale mode when the team was at the bottom of the league. Hasn’t that all changed now in the here, and now? That’s how it works, but NO one is eating crow.🙈

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Of the two, it’s far more likely Narvaez is in a short term funk.  O’Hoppe has seen his OPS drop by large chunks for 3 straight years.  Narvaez was hitting as recently as 12 months ago…

Maybe all the gossip about his ex wife and girlfriend and him sharing the girlfriend with teammates and Yankees is clouding his ability to hit 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Maybe all the gossip about his ex wife and girlfriend and him sharing the girlfriend with teammates and Yankees is clouding his ability to hit 

It also seems to be distracting the Yankees…

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Ah yes Pythagorean?There was an NBA coach this past offseason who said analytically they were winning the series. Unfortunately for them they didn’t, and their season was over. The record is all that counts? Last time I looked the record is what determines if a team gets into the postseason, or not. 🤭

I think it is fairly obvious that a good record beats a bad record, but thank you for bringing that to the court's attention.

But if you want to determine how well a team is playing Py W/L is a better descriptor than record.  I could show you some numbers, but I doubt you'd look at them.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

You were not alone. The Brez bashing rocketed despite many of us going over every winter move he made with a microscope.

Of course, the in-depth analysis of his off-season moves had as much impact as an analysis of Py W/L.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Gotta love this trend. I’m not sure what is to come but it’s nice to see proof that making harsh judgments before all the facts are in is never a good idea.

It's like that in real life as well.  Just imho, I rather enjoy trying to figure out whether short-terms trends are a real thing.