A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, Old Red said:

A question on the airwaves today is how many have bought into the Illusion of Contention with the wildcard. Have you changed your mind from Friday morning to Monday morning?🤔

I feel the same now as I did on Friday. I also don't feel very strongly about the third WC spot being all that meaningful. If the Sox have 6 teams ahead of them in the WC race and there are now 3 WC spots, it's pretty pathetic IMO. That's how many there were on Friday AM! 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I feel the same now as I did on Friday. I also don't feel very strongly about the third WC spot being all that meaningful. If the Sox have 6 teams ahead of them in the WC race and there are now 3 WC spots, it's pretty pathetic IMO. That's how many there were on Friday AM! 

I agree, and to me being 8 games under 500 is the most telling, which the Red Sox are back to after narrowing it to 5 under after the KC series.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Tedballgame said:

I wanted to sign Schwarber when they had him already on the team. That should have been a no brainer.

Maybe- there were some reasons to spend elsewhere, when your budget is tight.

It was our best chance, yes.

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I feel the same now as I did on Friday. I also don't feel very strongly about the third WC spot being all that meaningful. If the Sox have 6 teams ahead of them in the WC race and there are now 3 WC spots, it's pretty pathetic IMO. That's how many there were on Friday AM! 

To me, the six teams is not the issue. If we can win enough, it won't matter.

The "if" is the issue.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, the six teams is not the issue. If we can win enough, it won't matter.

The "if" is the issue.

8 games under 500 is a Big issue. 6 teams ahead of the Red Sox are also a BIG issue who can All win enough to stay ahead of the Red Sox.

[mvp 78]

51 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I agree, and to me being 8 games under 500 is the most telling, which the Red Sox are back to after narrowing it to 5 under after the KC series.

Sox are at 22-30. If they go 2-6 over their next 8 games (3 ATL, 3 CLE, 2 BAL), they'll match the 2020 Sox record. 

 

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, the six teams is not the issue. If we can win enough, it won't matter.

The "if" is the issue.

It shows how mediocre the Sox are and that they aren't really in it. If they are the 10th best team in the AL, who freakin' cares? That stinks! Change the channel. Go for a walk. Read a book. 

[vegasbob]

Excellent article by  Yirsandy Rodriguez here on TalkSox, see right hand column for access ........

It addresses why the Sox batters, as a whole,  are in a true power slump and not just in a group of individual slumps.   This smacks of organizational direction or influence to emphasize contact, but not hard contact. 

You have to do two things as a hitter, hit the ball and hit it with high exit velocity.    Of course, to hit it you have to see it and judge the pitches trajectory , so there's that too.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It shows how mediocre the Sox are and that they aren't really in it. If they are the 10th best team in the AL, who freakin' cares? That stinks! Change the channel. Go for a walk. Read a book. 

Like I keep saying being 8 games under 500 at this stage of the season in a league that is watered down and very weak shows how much they have really sucked.

[vegasbob]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox are at 22-30. If they go 2-6 over their next 8 games (3 ATL, 3 CLE, 2 BAL), they'll match the 2020 Sox record. 

 

Short of getting lucky, this outcome is certainly possible.   The only help is that 3 of those 8 are on the road, not Failure Fenway.

[drewski6]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It shows how mediocre the Sox are and that they aren't really in it. If they are the 10th best team in the AL, who freakin' cares? That stinks! Change the channel. Go for a walk. Read a book. 

Okay, Levar Burton.

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It shows how mediocre the Sox are and that they aren't really in it. If they are the 10th best team in the AL, who freakin' cares? That stinks! Change the channel. Go for a walk. Read a book. 

I'm not arguing being the last WC is a prize or feather in the cap. I won't be dancing if we make this dance.

I'm not even arguing we have a better chance at winning a WC slot than other teams.

My point is, having 6 teams ahead of us can be solved in 10 games. There is 110 games left.

[drewski6]

Peter Gammons thinks its time to sell.  Im not really there yet because sell for what? Prospects? We just did that song and dance and spoiler alert: the movie takes 6 years and ends with us in last place.

[moonslav59]

Just now, drewski6 said:

Peter Gammons thinks its time to sell.  Im not really there yet because sell for what? Prospects? We just did that song and dance and spoiler alert: the movie takes 6 years and ends with us in last place.

A lot of recent "sell trades" are for more ML ready prospects or young players not yet proven.

I'm not saying selling off gets us to glory in 1-2 years, but Chapman, Duran & Gray aint winning us a ring in 2028.

[drewski6]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

A lot of recent "sell trades" are for more ML ready prospects or young players not yet proven.

I'm not saying selling off gets us to glory in 1-2 years, but Chapman, Duran & Gray aint winning us a ring in 2028.

Im not against it.

[drewski6]

I jsut dont really get excited for it.  I was excited for KC, Mayer, and Roman.  Its hard to get re-excited.  But I know eventually we'll need to.

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not arguing being the last WC is a prize or feather in the cap. I won't be dancing if we make this dance.

I'm not even arguing we have a better chance at winning a WC slot than other teams.

My point is, having 6 teams ahead of us can be solved in 10 games. There is 110 games left.

Yes, and those 6 teams can be saying the same thing, and those 6 teams don’t have to play as well. 8 games under 500 is 8 games under 500, and just getting to 500 is a low bar in itself.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Im not against it.

It's not the time to sell, but if the deadline was now, I would.

[Old Red]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

It's not the time to sell, but if the deadline was now, I would.

I agree that it’s not time to sell, and if, and when it comes is who.

[drewski6]

I think its time to offer aging players for super high rates.  Give us time to dangle but then fall back to something more reasonable if no bites.  Take advantage of the runway between now and the deadline by slapping on a high pricetag.

[drewski6]

Ask for a top MLB prospect for Chapman.  If we dont get it fine, still plenty of time.  But maybe you get a fish.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Ask for a top MLB prospect for Chapman.  If we dont get it fine, still plenty of time.  But maybe you get a fish.

It's very rare to see big trades made like this in May and early June. You'd think you'd get way more for 4 months of Chapman and Gray rather than 2 months each, but it's hard to judge.

I'm not for selling, right now, despite seeing almost zero hopes we can advance in the playoffs, let alone make or win the WS. Normally, that's enough for me to say "sell," but again, kit's just too early.

I'm light years away from thinking we should be major buyers.

[Oscars]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Huh? (Did I misunderstand your point?)

Best records in MLB and ERA Ranks

13 teams above .500

1. ATL 1st

2. TBR 5th

3. LAD 2nd

4. MIL 4th

5. NYY 3rd

6. SDP 11th

7. CLE 6th

8. STL 21st

9. AZ 17th

10. CHC 16th

11. PIT 10th

12. CWS  24th

13. WSH 26th

Now, ERA- has several teams with bad records in the top 15, but none in top 5...

6. BOS 22-30

8. TEX 24-29

10. SEA 26-29

11. DET 21-33

12. TOR 25-29

13. KCR 22-32

15. PHI 27-27

Top Offenses by OPS

.750+ LAD, ATL, NYY

.730-.749 WSN

.720-.729 HOU, TBR, Athletics, CHC, CWS

.708-.719 AZ, PIT, MIN

8 teams are between .688 and .707

The Sox are 25th at .682 (PHI, SFG, TOR, SDP & NYM are worse)

Look at the money spent by these bottom 6 teams!

 

I slightly misquoted Rob Bradford , see below. 

Seven of the next eight teams the Red Sox play - the Braves, Guardians, Yankees, Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays and Mariners - all reside in the Top 10 when it comes to team ERA. And even though the Red Sox can claim the third-most hits in baseball in the past week, they still were in the middle of the pack when it came to scoring runs

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Cool. Do you think Mookie cares about the CBT or his cash? 

Mookie Betts signed a 12 year, $365,000,000 contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, including $65,000,000 signing bonus, $365,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $30,416,667.

Of course they care about the present value.  I can offer Mookie a billion $$$ to teach me how to hit, but I can only afford $100/year for the next 10 million years.

[JoeBrady]

21 hours ago, vegasbob said:

When will the analysts finally recognize that ultimate statistic, the only one that actually matters if a team is playing for a championship.

I don't get that.  I'm pretty sure 28 teams won't be playing for a championship.

[vegasbob]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

I don't get that.  I'm pretty sure 28 teams won't be playing for a championship.

Try Competing for a chip then

The point was and still is, only W-L's matter over a season

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, drewski6 said:

6/15 becomes 6/9 if the bottom 6 teams are hardly trying. 

The 6 bottom teams include BA, the RS, Detroit, and Houston.  I think all four are trying.

But I do believe that BB needs a floor and cap.

[JoeBrady]

15 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

Try Competing for a chip then

The point was and still is, only W-L's matter over a season

I'm cool that that.

ed-You know what I'd be cool with?  Not rolling over.  If we get up 2-0, then down 6-2, I'd like to see us tie it once in a while, even if we lose.

[vegasbob]

40 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm cool that that.

ed-You know what I'd be cool with?  Not rolling over.  If we get up 2-0, then down 6-2, I'd like to see us tie it once in a while, even if we lose.

Almost tied it but again just short

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, vegasbob said:

Excellent article by  Yirsandy Rodriguez here on TalkSox, see right hand column for access ........

It addresses why the Sox batters, as a whole,  are in a true power slump and not just in a group of individual slumps.   This smacks of organizational direction or influence to emphasize contact, but not hard contact. 

You have to do two things as a hitter, hit the ball and hit it with high exit velocity.    Of course, to hit it you have to see it and judge the pitches trajectory , so there's that too.

I don't think that's the premise of the article. The org pushes exit velo and lifting the ball. If you look down on the farm, they are pushing guys to increase exit velo year over year. GRE is towards the top of their league in HR. Arias has a career high in HR and it's only May. 

The problem is that the BOSTON Red Sox were drawn up horribly. Adding Caleb Durbin was a huge mistake. Keeping Yoshida around doesn't make sense. Roman Anthony has had a tremendously high GB% his whole pro career. You can't rely on him to bring thump to a lineup. Marcelo was promoted too early and is now learning on the job. 

Having half of your lineup be punch and judy hitters (even more when you are relying on called up AAA hitters and Duran is slumping) is why the Sox got to where they are. Sox need to blow it up. DFA/Trade Story and Masa. Trade Duran for parts. Send Durbin to AAA so that he can play every day. There are calls to trade Contreras, but I think he's doing a good job mentoring Rafaela (career high 117 wRC+) and Abreu. The Sox need to keep some veteran leadership around.