A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Good thing Spring stats are meaningless or I'd be worried.

Hard hit rates aren't meaningless IMO. The rate at which balls fall in during ST may be. 

[UtahSox]

Very happy for Early, I’m excited for him definitely has earned it. Tolle has looked really good as well. I wonder what we are gonna do with Kutter and Sandoval? I can’t remember Red Sox ever having a opposite of dearth of 9 Quality SPers like this….. Truly unprecedented times. Calling my shot!

Of course UtahSox law of Chaos states clearly 

“Now that the Red Sox have fully prepared for injury chaos, there will be the healthiest 1st half of MLB season in years for SPers. Ergo thus creating internal chaos for starts/ innings by 9 really good pitchers” 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Very happy for Early, I’m excited for him definitely has earned it. Tolle has looked really good as well. I wonder what we are gonna do with Kutter and Sandoval? I can’t remember Red Sox ever having a dearth of 9 Quality SPers like this….. Truly unprecedented times.

Wait a sec -- longtime Red Sox fans have literally lived on Planet Dearth when it comes to starting pitching.

Maybe this year we will have a plethora...

... if not, at least we'll have Roman numerals -- or the Big Aura, as a departed former leader calls Anthony.

[moonslav59]

J Paez makes the CWS 26 man roster.

Let's see if he lasts all season.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

J Paez makes the CWS 26 man roster.

Let's see if he lasts all season.

For a guy who has never pitched above A ball, it'll be interesting to see how they use him. He pitched well except for one outing in ST. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A few points read elsewhere this AM:

Four of the top five teams in Fielding Independent Pitching metrics last season didn't make the postseason... but the Top Five in runs scored all made the playoffs.

The Red Sox offense is missing their top four batters vs. left-handed pitching from a year ago: Romy, Refsnyder, Bregman, Devers.

And yet, over 50 percent of posters on the most infamous Red Sox fan forum pick Boston to win the AL East. Yow.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

A few points read elsewhere this AM:

Four of the top five teams in Fielding Independent Pitching metrics last season didn't make the postseason... but the Top Five in runs scored all made the playoffs.

The Red Sox offense is missing their top four batters vs. left-handed pitching from a year ago: Romy, Refsnyder, Bregman, Devers.

And yet, over 50 percent of posters on the most infamous Red Sox fan forum pick Boston to win the AL East. Yow.

Where? 

Willson Contreras was 23rd in wRC+ vs LHP last season. He's fine enough to replace Breggie's production. I think the Sox believe Roman can replace Devers's production overall. Nobody knows if Romy will come back at all this season. Sox didn't expect that he'd be out with an injury. Refsnyder? Maybe they are hoping KC will step up? Who knows...

[moonslav59]

We faced a LH'd SP'er in 27% of our games, last year (44/162.)

I think we'll be fine vs lefties and better than 2025 vs righties.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

A few points read elsewhere this AM:

Four of the top five teams in Fielding Independent Pitching metrics last season didn't make the postseason... but the Top Five in runs scored all made the playoffs.

The Red Sox offense is missing their top four batters vs. left-handed pitching from a year ago: Romy, Refsnyder, Bregman, Devers.

And yet, over 50 percent of posters on the most infamous Red Sox fan forum pick Boston to win the AL East. Yow.

This just in, a RS fan forum has a rosier outlook on the 2026 season than baseball fans in general.

Personally, I find myself significantly more optimistic than what I read or hear from neutral sources, but I do think that some of the stuff Ive read here borders on irrationally optimistic.  Im cautious that my own spring optimism may be from me reading too much into spring results...But it does look like Duran, Anthony, Cedanne, Abreu are ready to mash.

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

Chicago White Sox now have: 

Wikelman Gonzalez

Jordan Hicks

Chris Murphy

Sean Newcomb

Jedixson Paez

David Sandlin

Reese McGuire

Kyle Teel

Chase Meidroth

Andrew Benintendi

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Chicago White Sox now have: 

Wikelman Gonzalez

Jordan Hicks

Chris Murphy

Sean Newcomb

Jedixson Paez

David Sandlin

Reese McGuire

Kyle Teel

Chase Meidroth

Andrew Benintendi

Wow! 6 pitchers and 2 catchers.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR breaks down the Sox Off Season:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/03/offseason-in-review-boston-red-sox-18.html

71% of readers gave the Sox an A or B

22% gave them a C

7% an F or D

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

MLBTR breaks down the Sox Off Season:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/03/offseason-in-review-boston-red-sox-18.html

71% of readers gave the Sox an A or B

22% gave them a C

7% an F or D

16% gave them an A

77% gave them a B or C

8% gave them a D or F

Voting is still open!!!

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

16% gave them an A

77% gave them a B or C

8% gave them a D or F

Voting is still open!!!

92% an A, B or C

[moonslav59]

When Sandoval and or Crawford get healthy, a choice may need to be made on Watson (Rule 5) and Moran (out of options,) but maybe some other pitcher hitting the IL can prolong the choice.

When Casas gets healthy and assuming he looks good enough to warrant a promotion, I can't see us carrying Yoshida & Casas as bench pieces.

If and when Romy returns, I'd guess Monasterio is demoted.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

92% an A, B or C

55% B

45% something else

[Kimmi]

7 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

A few points read elsewhere this AM:

Four of the top five teams in Fielding Independent Pitching metrics last season didn't make the postseason... but the Top Five in runs scored all made the playoffs.

The Red Sox offense is missing their top four batters vs. left-handed pitching from a year ago: Romy, Refsnyder, Bregman, Devers.

And yet, over 50 percent of posters on the most infamous Red Sox fan forum pick Boston to win the AL East. Yow.

We may not have a top 5 offense in terms of runs scored, but if our pitching holds up like we think it should, we should be one of the top teams in run differential.  That's what matters.  The top 8 teams in run differential last year, and 10 of the top 11 (Texas was extremely unlucky) all made the playoffs.

FTR, I'm not picking Boston to win the division, though I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility.  I am predicting them to make the playoffs.

[Kimmi]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

55% B

45% something else

Moon and MVP, OMG.  LOL

[Kimmi]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We faced a LH'd SP'er in 27% of our games, last year (44/162.)

I think we'll be fine vs lefties and better than 2025 vs righties.

I'm still concerned about the strikeouts, or more specifically, the inability to at least make a productive out.  That said, I think our offense will be fine.

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I'm still concerned about the strikeouts, or more specifically, the inability to at least make a productive out.  That said, I think our offense will be fine.

This is the K era. I don't love it, but it is what it is.

I think we'll be fine on offense, better on defense and the pitching should be great.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, Kimmi said:

we should be one of the top teams in run differential.  That's what matters.

Py W/L is incredibly accurate.

[moonslav59]

The season is here!

Go Sox!!!

[moonslav59]

With Abreu being given the chance to play FT, Refsnyder gone and Romy on the IL, it looks like there will be less platoons and more defined roles among the everyday players.

Catcher: Narvaez looks to start in 4 out of 5 games with Wong catching Bello.

1B: looks as steady as it has been in many years. (Moreland in 2018?)

2B: is still a bit unknown, as Mayer's health and production, especially vs LHPs is up in the air.

3B: Durbin looks like a lock, here.

SS: It's all about Story's health.

LF: Anthony is the FT'er with Duran giving him a spell, here and there.

CF: Hopefully, Rafaela plays CF only.

RF: Abreu has been given the chance to play FT.

DH: Duran looks like the near FT DH. When an OF'er needs a break, he should slide into LF.

Bench: Yoshida PH'er vs RHPs, Wong (Bello's binky), IKF the defensive utility infielder & Monasterio to keep Romy's seat warm.

[JoeBrady]

A Guinness awaits me.  Good luck and enjoy!

[harmony]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

MLBTR breaks down the Sox Off Season:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/03/offseason-in-review-boston-red-sox-18.html

71% of readers gave the Sox an A or B

22% gave them a C

7% an F or D

Guess who gave the Red Sox offseason an A?

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, harmony said:

Guess who gave the Red Sox offseason an A?

Me.

[Kimmi]

20 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Py W/L is incredibly accurate.

Yes.  I'm a big fan of Pythagoras.  

[moonslav59]

It's always nice to start the season with a win, and the shutout makes it even sweeter.

The two kids went 5 for 6.

It was 51 years ago another 2 kids brought some magic to the city.