A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Sounds good, but neither trade is happening.

Reds don't want Mayer as they have De La Cruz, Stewart and McLain. I don't believe the Astros are going to tank their season just yet. 

They wouldn't have McLain, if they got Mayer, but your point is well taken.

As for the Astros, maybe Campbell helps them more than Paredes, as they are logjammed at corner infield.

[moonslav59]

Would anyone give Campbell & Crawford for Vientos & Peterson?

(I don't think I would, since Peterson has just 1 year left.)

[Hitch]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Would anyone give Campbell & Crawford for Vientos & Peterson?

(I don't think I would, since Peterson has just 1 year left.)

I'd be tempted as long as that wasn't it. But then I don't have much faith in Campbell.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

I'd be tempted as long as that wasn't it. But then I don't have much faith in Campbell.

I really like KC, a lot. I'm trying to avoid trading Duran, because I'm not sure we'll add the big bat infielder we need. That leaves DH for our 4th OF'er and NOT Campbell (or Yoshida/Casas/Romy.)

Trading a top 4 OF'er makes the most sense, as I don't think KC's trade value is worth his upside value or predicted value, but I might trade him, now, for the right piece.

We need 2 good pieces or one high quality piece.

[JoeBrady]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Would anyone give Campbell & Crawford for Vientos & Peterson?

(I don't think I would, since Peterson has just 1 year left.)

No.  I don't think it's crazy talk or anything, but I'm not sure Peterson will out-perform our #4-5-6 guys by enough to warrant losing C & C.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

No.  I don't think it's crazy talk or anything, but I'm not sure Peterson will out-perform our #4-5-6 guys by enough to warrant losing C & C.

I'm pretty certain on Peterson, too, and that's why I asked. The big downside is just the one year of control. Maybe we extend him.

I'm not high on Vientos, at all, but he's better than DHam, Sogard & Eaton. He'll probably outhit Romy, too.

[moonslav59]

Houck ($4.1M) and Oviedo ($1.55M) agree to pre-arb contracts.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Houck ($4.1M) and Oviedo ($1.55M) agree to pre-arb contracts.

Casas and Romy signed for $1.6M each.

[Larry Cook]

On 1/7/2026 at 2:37 PM, moonslav59 said:

What if we signed nobody and made these two BTV approved trades while keeping Duran:

Mayer to CIN for Lodolo & McLain

Campbell & DHam to HOU for Paredes and Sousa

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Contreras 1B/C

3. L Duran DH

4. R Paredes 3B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Story SS

7. R McLain 2B

8. L Casas 1B/R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

SP: Crochet, Lodolo, Gray, Bello, Sandoval/Oviedo

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Sousa, Weissert, Harrison, Crawford, Hicks/Moran

1.) anthony 

2.) Bregman 

3.) Duran 

4.) Contreras 

5.) abreau 

6.) story 

7.) mayer

8.) narveaz 

9.) rafeala 

bench - Hamilton, Eaton, sogard, Wong 

Cassas starts the year on the DL. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, Larry Cook said:

1.) anthony 

2.) Bregman 

3.) Duran 

4.) Contreras 

5.) abreau 

6.) story 

7.) mayer

8.) narveaz 

9.) rafeala 

bench - Hamilton, Eaton, sogard, Wong 

Cassas starts the year on the DL. 

Masa in AAA?

[Larry Cook]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Masa in AAA?

He starts the year on the DL or DFA or traded! 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

He starts the year on the DL or DFA or traded! 

 

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

 

Why no Romy?

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Why no Romy?

Both Romy and Yoshida will be on the team.

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Both Romy and Yoshida will be on the team.

Romy may start!

Yoshida may begin in AAA, but he wont be DFA'd.

[moonslav59]

BTV accepts Rafaela, Campbell & Casas for KMarte.

The AAV is nearly the same, so in theory, we could still sign a decent FA SP & RP.

1. L Anthony CF

2. S KMarte 2B

3. L Duran LF

4. R Contreras 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Masa DH or R Romy DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. L Mayer 2B or R Romy 2B

SP: Crochet, Gray, Bassitt, Bello, Sandoval/Oviedo (Tolle/Early)

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Wilson, Weissert, Harrison, Crawford, Hicks/Moran/Watson (Kelly/Mullins)

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Romy may start!

Yoshida may begin in AAA, but he wont be DFA'd.

I seriously doubt that a projected 112+ hitter starts off in AAA.  Their bench, without a trade, will almost certainly be Wong, Hammy, Romy and ???

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I seriously doubt that a projected 112+ hitter starts off in AAA.  Their bench, without a trade, will almost certainly be Wong, Hammy, Romy and ???

If Duran starts the season as the DH, he will be the FT DH. We should not use one of the 4 bench slots for a back-up DH. I think he may be in AAA day one, if not traded.

I also think we trade an OF'er, so Masa will be the DH on opening day.

[moonslav59]

This is how BTV places value on some of our players. This is before they deduct salary or projected salary:

$Millions/ years remaining

240/6 Crochet

219/9 Anthony

108/9 Campbell

94/9 Rafaela

83/3 Duran

81/6 Early

78/5 Mayer

76/4 Bello

56/4 Abreu

50/6 Tolle

42/5 Narvaez

36/3 Whitlock

35/3 Crawford

32/1 Gray

27/2 Contreras

27/3 Casas

26/4 Slaten

21/3 Romy, 20/2 Story, 18/1 Sandoval, 18/2 Chapman, 13/2 Oviedo. 10/2 Yoshida

________________________________

By value per season:

40 Crochet

32 Gray

28 Duran

24 Anthony

19 Abreu & Bello

18 Sandoval (YIKES!)

16 Mayer

14 Early

14 Contreras

12 Campbell

12 Whitlock

11 Crawford

10 Rafaela & Story

9 Chapman, Tolle& Casas

8 Narvaez

7 Slaten, Oviedo & Romy

5 Yoshida

[drewski6]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If Duran starts the season as the DH, he will be the FT DH. We should not use one of the 4 bench slots for a back-up DH. I think he may be in AAA day one, if not traded.

I also think we trade an OF'er, so Masa will be the DH on opening day.

I think there are only three players on this team who will be full time at a specific position (except when on bench) - Abreu, Nav, story 

Cedanne will play infield sparingly, Duran will play some outfield, some dh. If Nav is playing hes at C, if Abreu is playing hes at RF. If STory is playing he is at SS (personally, I would play cedanne at ss more than most) but  I dont expect them too. But cedanne will play a little 2b here and there.

They will rotate through the DH spot (Anthony, Duran, Romy, Yoshida)

I wouldnt consider Yoshida a backup DH, I would consider him part of a DH committee, but I do agree that unless hes hitting gappers in ST, its hard to justify carrying that on the 26 over a second platoon bat.

If Yoshida makes the team and his hitting gappers, fine.  If hes rolling over everything, and a couple singles are getting through the infield and thats the extent of his contributions - but he stays with the major league team - then we'll (justifiably) complain that we shoulda kept Refsnyder.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think there are only three players on this team who will be full time at a specific position (except when on bench) - Abreu, Nav, story 

Cedanne will play infield sparingly, Duran will play some outfield, some dh. If Nav is playing hes at C, if Abreu is playing hes at RF. If STory is playing he is at SS (personally, I would play cedanne at ss more than most) but  I dont expect them too. But cedanne will play a little 2b here and there.

They will rotate through the DH spot (Anthony, Duran, Romy, Yoshida)

I wouldnt consider Yoshida a backup DH, I would consider him part of a DH committee, but I do agree that unless hes hitting gappers in ST, its hard to justify carrying that on the 26 over a second platoon bat.

If Yoshida makes the team and his hitting gappers, fine.  If hes rolling over everything, and a couple singles are getting through the infield and thats the extent of his contributions - but he stays with the major league team - then we'll (justifiably) complain that we shoulda kept Refsnyder.

I think Contreras has to be considered our FT 1Bman, barring injury. He may catch some, but unless Wong is not on the roster it wont be enough to say he's not our FT 1Bman.

Duran will not play any "specific position" FT but may lead the team in PAs, unless Anthony leads off and stay healthy all year.

I think we add an infielder (Bregman?) and Rafaela only starts in the infield if there is an injury or emergency situation. With the more-than-capable Romy on the bench, Rafaela stays in CF very close to FT.

This might be how the PAs are spread out:

690 Duran (mostly at DH and LF with a little in CF)

650 Anthony (mostly in LF bus some RF)

600 Rafaela (almost all in CF)

600 Story (100% at SS)

600 Contreras (almost all at 1B)

600 ?? Bregman ?? (100% at 3B)

550-600 Abreu (100% in RF)

550 Mayer (mostly at 2B w some at 3B/SS)

450 Narvaez (100% at C)

350 Romy (2B/1B/DH and a little at 3B)

200 Wong (C)

100 DHam (2B)

100 Yoshida (DH/LF then traded or demoted)

 

 

[drewski6]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Contreras has to be considered our FT 1Bman, barring injury. He may catch some, but unless Wong is not on the roster it wont be enough to say he's not our FT 1Bman.

Duran will not play any "specific position" FT but may lead the team in PAs, unless Anthony leads off and stay healthy all year.

I think we add an infielder (Bregman?) and Rafaela only starts in the infield if there is an injury or emergency situation. With the more-than-capable Romy on the bench, Rafaela stays in CF very close to FT.

This might be how the PAs are spread out:

690 Duran (mostly at DH and LF with a little in CF)

650 Anthony (mostly in LF bus some RF)

600 Rafaela (almost all in CF)

600 Story (100% at SS)

600 Contreras (almost all at 1B)

600 ?? Bregman ?? (100% at 3B)

550-600 Abreu (100% in RF)

550 Mayer (mostly at 2B w some at 3B/SS)

450 Narvaez (100% at C)

350 Romy (2B/1B/DH and a little at 3B)

200 Wong (C)

100 DHam (2B)

100 Yoshida (DH/LF then traded or demoted)

 

 

And if story gets hurt? WHile all 4 OF'ers are playing great? They arent going to bench a hot player. Theyll shuffle.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

And if story gets hurt? WHile all 4 OF'ers are playing great? They arent going to bench a hot player. Theyll shuffle.

Mayer plays SS and Romy plays 2B.

We also have Campbell and Yoshida who can play LF.

I value a quality 3Bman over a 4th OF'er, especially when we have Campbell/Yoshida as our 5th OF'er.

[Jean-Sébastien Blouin]

The Red Sox haven't signed any free agents yet. Are they going to sign someone, and who do you think will be signed?

[drewski6]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Mayer plays SS and Romy plays 2B.

We also have Campbell and Yoshida who can play LF.

I value a quality 3Bman over a 4th OF'er, especially when we have Campbell/Yoshida as our 5th OF'er.

Then mayer gets hurt?

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Then mayer gets hurt?

So the idea is to leave gaping holes in case our 4th OF'er gets hurt?

I'm not for trading any infielders, except DHam, unless we add two.

[drewski6]

we arent talking about valuing 3b vs 4th of'er we are talking about guys sticking to one position. My points is that we'll shuffle and we'll shuffle all season long

Our defensive alignment will be fluid based on who is pitching that day, injuries, who is hot

The days of "our first baseman is hurt, bring in backup 1b, keep everything else the same" are dead.  Now if someone gets hurt, you move dudes around, if your backup 3b is better than your backup 1b.

Positions arent rigid, is my point.

If mayer and story are hurt AND Duran, Abreu, Cedanne, and Abreu are all swinging a hot bat, Cedanne is playing infield for a spell (not a game either).  And thats not a 1% likely outcome either, its like 35% likely to happen.

My point is that when you provided your who is playing where, injuries change that.  But its not going to be, injured outfielder, replace with outfielder.  

If Nav gets hurt, Contreras will catch more.  If multiple infielders get hurt, Cedanne will play more infield.  Versatility is good.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

So the idea is to leave gaping holes in case our 4th OF'er gets hurt?

I'm not for trading any infielders, except DHam, unless we add two.

no the point is that dudes are going to move around the diamond all year, get use to it.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

we arent talking about valuing 3b vs 4th of'er we are talking about guys sticking to one position. My points is that we'll shuffle and we'll shuffle all season long

Our defensive alignment will be fluid based on who is pitching that day, injuries, who is hot

The days of "our first baseman is hurt, bring in backup 1b, keep everything else the same" are dead.  Now if someone gets hurt, you move dudes around, if your backup 3b is better than your backup 1b.

Positions arent rigid, is my point.

If mayer and story are hurt AND Duran, Abreu, Cedanne, and Abreu are all swinging a hot bat, Cedanne is playing infield for a spell (not a game either).  And thats not a 1% likely outcome either, its like 35% likely to happen.

My point is that when you provided your who is playing where, injuries change that.  But its not going to be, injured outfielder, replace with outfielder.  

If Nav gets hurt, Contreras will catch more.  If multiple infielders get hurt, Cedanne will play more infield.  Versatility is good.

We probably will shuffle, and injuries will dictate a lot. I think Cora has stated he really wants Rafaela to stay in CF, and I think h means it, but if we don't add a quality 2B/3Bman, or someone (Story/Mayer) gets hurt, yes, that could change. Maybe Romy and campbell get the first shot on the IF depth chart- maybe not.

I do think our team, barring injuries, is also set up for almost every slot to be FT or near FT. The big if to me is Duran at DH. With no quality IF added, much changes.

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

no the point is that dudes are going to move around the diamond all year, get use to it.

It's happened a lot, and Cora seems to delight in the idea, so I'm already used to it.

Injuries happen. They will in 2026.

My point is, we look to have FT or near FT players for every position, including the non-platooned Abreu in RF, as Cora suggested, as well.

[moonslav59]

These are the estimated fWARs for the remaining 2026 free agents:

4.4 Tucker OF

4.0 Bregman 3B

4.0 Bichette SS (2B)

3.0 Bellinger Of/1B

2.5 E Suarez 3B (1B/DH)

1.8 Realmuto C

1.6 Arraez 1B/DH (2B)

1.1 Moncada 3B (2B)

1.2 Willi Castro (2B) Caratini (C)

1.0 Rengifo 2B/3B

Pitchers

3.7 Valdez

3.3 Ra Suarez

2.4 Gallen

2.1 Bassitt (might take the 1-2 year deal JH loves)

1.7 Littell

1.6 Verlander (1 yr deal)

1.5 Jon Gray

1.4 Scherzer (1 yr deal)

1.3 N Martinez, A Civale

1.2 Giolito, Mikolas, M Perez, Sugano

1.1 Quintana, Corbin, Paddack