A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Larry Cook]

Did we trade Grissom to the angels?? 
 

open up a spot on the 40 man roster??? 

[FredLynn]

14 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Hes really good.

Pipe dream. Burns is going nowhere.

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Did we trade Grissom to the angels?? 
 

open up a spot on the 40 man roster??? 

Traded for OF Isiah Jackson.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Traded for OF Isiah Jackson.

Yup, a single A suspect.

Open roster slot for _____.

[Old Red]

29 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

From Bregman to Marte to Paredes to mr 80 OPS+ vargas himself.

If they insist on Tolle for Paredes, move on.  Maybe offer Bregman 200m.

Bregman wasn’t worth $40M, and won’t be worth $200M IMO.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Bregman wasn’t worth $40M, and won’t be worth $200M IMO.

Fangraphs had him at a $33M value- certainly up for debate.

His differed money was apparently worth $32.6M- also a debatable number.

We probably don't make the playoffs, so what was that worth? (Certainly up for debate.)

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Fangraphs had him at a $33M value- certainly up for debate.

His differed money was apparently worth $32.6M- also a debatable number.

We probably don't make the playoffs, so what was that worth? (Certainly up for debate.)

That depends if any other moves had been made. Raffy could of made a big difference against the Yankees in the postseason though IMO, but we will never know.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Old Red said:

That depends if any other moves had been made. Raffy could of made a big difference against the Yankees in the postseason though IMO, but we will never know.

That's not Ole Red speculating, is it?

lol

[drewski6]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Bregman wasn’t worth $40M, and won’t be worth $200M IMO.

Guess what? I dont care if JH has to fork over more money for ballplayers than a bunch on internet nerds think that ballplayer is worth.  What else is he gonna do? Hoard his wealth?

We beat up hoarders and nerds.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

That depends if any other moves had been made. Raffy could of made a big difference against the Yankees in the postseason though IMO, but we will never know.

Sure, it comes down to the rest of the roster moves, but no point in looking back. Take this post, which I think is correct and apply it forward?

Should we spend 300m on Bregman? What else are we gonna do with the money? If nothing, then yes.  

No typo, just took another 100m out of JHs pocket.  Cost just went up

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Sure, it comes down to the rest of the roster moves, but no point in looking back. Take this post, which I think is correct and apply it forward?

Should we spend 300m on Bregman? What else are we gonna do with the money? If nothing, then yes.  

No typo, just took another 100m out of JHs pocket.  Cost just went up

300M on Bregman? NO! 

200M on Bregman? NO!

150M on Bregman? Maybe! 

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

300M on Bregman? NO! 

200M on Bregman? NO!

150M on Bregman? Maybe! 

Gold: 150m on bregman, 150m spent on other red sox needs
Silver: 300m on bregman (same amount of years, just a doubling of AAV)
Bronze: 150m on bregman, 150m in JHs pocket

Point is, there is no amount of money that I mind bregman taking from JH's pocket unless that money is earmarked for other red sox players, but I dont think its that black and white. As in, I dont think JH has a number that he is going to spend no matter what. Therefore, I dont think its a case where if JH pays Breg 150m (as opposed to 300m) then that means for sure another 150m going to red sox other needs.

For this reason, I hope JH pays Bregman 400m

[Old Red]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's not Ole Red speculating, is it?

lol

It is on Raffy being a difference in the postseason against the Yankees, and I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to speculate either, which I’ve been saying since the final out was made.

[drewski6]

Just now, Old Red said:

It is on Raffy being a difference in the postseason against the Yankees, and I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to speculate either, which I’ve been saying since the final out was made.

Being a difference - for sure. Being the difference - dunno (possible though)

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

It is on Raffy being a difference in the postseason against the Yankees, and I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to speculate either, which I’ve been saying since the final out was made.

This is the right mentality though.

We salary dumped our best hitter, and almost beat the yankees.  Imagine if we didnt salary dump our best hitter = good

We salary dumped our best hitter, and almost beat the yankees. This shows that payroll and talent level dont really matter that much, so we should be fine without the best team possible. We should keep the payroll down = bad

[moonslav59]

Sox reported to have "talked" with the Suarez camp.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox reported to have "talked" with the Suarez camp.

Backup plan? 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

This is the right mentality though.
 

We might won it all with Devers.

Certainly, Harrison and Hicks did nothing plus.

 

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Backup plan? 

Looks that way.

He might be a better Plan B option than Polanco.

I'd be pretty pissed, if our winter added up to Gray, Suarez, Oviedo and some lefty no name RP"er.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Looks that way.

He might be a better Plan B option than Polanco.

I'd be pretty pissed, if our winter added up to Gray, Suarez, Oviedo and some lefty no name RP"er.

More likely it'd be Alonso/Suarez, IMO. I'd be surprised if they only add Suarez to the offense. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

More likely it'd be Alonso/Suarez, IMO. I'd be surprised if they only add Suarez to the offense. 

If the rumor on not wanting to go much over the tax line is correct, Suarez gets us there, if you add a $3-5M LH'd RP'er.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If the rumor on not wanting to go much over the tax line is correct, Suarez gets us there, if you add a $3-5M LH'd RP'er.

How much would they pay Suarez? 

[mvp 78]

Would be nice to have an additional 30M to spend (Masa/Hicks). 

[drewski6]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We might won it all with Devers.

Certainly, Harrison and Hicks did nothing plus.

 

Yup, my main point is that when you overachieve based on expectations relative to talent, there are two possible take-a-ways. One is , wow - what could we have done with more talent. The other is that talent isnt the be-all end all, so its okay to prioritize JH's bank account over talent.

Stressing about Devers, to me, is welcomed. Sure we've beat it to death. Sure, its in teh past now.  But its better than "we made the playoffs without a firstbaseman last year, so we dont need one this year"  At least bringing up Devers doesnt obscure that talent matters a lot.

This may come as a surprise to some but - having the youngest payroll and having the cheapest payroll dont help you win games.  In fact, I honestly think that a big part of the reason we overachieved last year is because Story is a vet and a pro and money maker.  That stuff matters.  Hes been there before.  You want some age.

You dont want to keep flipping late 20s and even 30+ year olds into kids over and over again.

Like for example , somebody here who was drooling over our 2030 100% homegrown team.  Well I can assure you that when 2030 comes, homeboy will be drooling over the 2035 team.  Because when you are always dreaming about tomorrow, tomorrow never comes.

[drewski6]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

More likely it'd be Alonso/Suarez, IMO. I'd be surprised if they only add Suarez to the offense. 

Correct if we are pivoting to Suarez, better have Alonso inked haha.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

How much would they pay Suarez? 

MLBTR projected $21M x 3.

They were $3M off on Cease, but got 7 years right. They got Schwarber's years right at 5, but missed by $3M/yr. Does that mean Suarez gets $24M x 3?

Adding $3M/yr to other MLBTR projections:

$33M x 5 Valdez

$30M x 6 Bregman

$30M x 4 Alonso

$29M x 8 Bichette

$28M x 5 Imai

$26M x 5 R Suarez

$25M x 8 Murakami

$21M x 2 M Kelly

$19M x 4 Okamoto

$18M/2 H-S Kim and Realmuto

$17M x 3 Polanco

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Red Sox aren't going to sign two free agent bats.

If they were, then just pay for quality -- not one good bat and another made of fallapartical board.

That doesn't even make sense to penny pinchers. If Boston isn't going to pay up, then expect one big signing and Craig Breslow to trade from his wealth of young pitching for another hitter.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Correct if we are pivoting to Suarez, better have Alonso inked haha.

Sign Suarez

Trade Mayer, Valera & Tolle for Greene

Trade Duran, Harrison & Perales for K Marte

1. L Anthony LF

2. S K Marte 2B

3. L Abreu RF/ R Refsnyder RF

4. R Suarez 3B

5. L Yoshida/R Refsnyder

6. R Story SS

7. L Casas 1B/ R Romy 1B

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

SP: Crochet, Greene. Gray, Bello, ____

 

[Old Red]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Would be nice to have an additional 30M to spend (Masa/Hicks). 

Seems like Masa has been here longer than he really has.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Red Sox aren't going to sign two free agent bats.

If they were, then just pay for quality -- not one good bat and another made of fallapartical board.

That doesn't even make sense to penny pinchers. If Boston isn't going to pay up, then expect one big signing and Craig Breslow to trade from his wealth of young pitching for another hitter.

We can sign one and trade for one, but it's likely Duran will be part of the trade, so it will be giving up some O to get some O.

If we trade Duran for a pitcher (Lodolo?) then adding even (just) Alonso is a net loss on offense.

No 1200 PAs from Devers, Bregman, Refsnyder and Lowe. Alonso can make up for 650. Maybe Anthony makes up for 350, but we're short 200 PAs just to get back to even, and that assume everyone else does the same.