Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

'22 should have sold the entire house from day 1

'23 56-50 at the deadline (sell Turner/Duvall/Sale)

'24 57-51 at the deadline with a tough schedule coming up (sell Jansen and Martin)

'24 was a tough one.

Had we sold in '22 and '23, we'd have had a better foundation in '24, '25 and now.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

As if. 

There must be a mental block.

If you won't trade an OF'er than just tear off the Masa band-aid.

[Kimmi]

19 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Masa is a LF hitting "outfielder". and i'd be more than happy to send him to houston for IP.

LOL   This literally made me laugh out loud.

Get it done, Breslow!

[moonslav59]

Kimmi, I got it done!

BTV accepts:

Masa (+$5M) Sandoval & Bleis for Christian Javier

Javier is owed $21.4M x 2, but Masa (18) Sandoval (7.8) =$25.8 (The $5M kinda evens it out)

[Kimmi]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Kimmi, I got it done!

BTV accepts:

Masa (+$5M) Sandoval & Bleis for Christian Javier

Javier is owed $21.4M x 2, but Masa (18) Sandoval (7.8) =$25.8 (The $5M kinda evens it out)

I bow to you and others who come up with all of these trade proposals.

I've mentioned before that I'm not as eager to trade Masa as most posters here are, but if there's a deal that makes sense for us, then I'll be good with it. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I bow to you and others who come up with all of these trade proposals.

I've mentioned before that I'm not as eager to trade Masa as most posters here are, but if there's a deal that makes sense for us, then I'll be good with it. 

If Javier could regain what he once had, this would be a steal.

The 2027 cost would be higher for the Sox, but the upside might be worth it.

HOU would say no, unless they see value in Masa as an OF'er. (They have a DH)

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

IMO, the future is now.  And maybe it was in 2025.  But it wasn't in 2022, 2023, and 2024.  We should've been selling more than buying.

I agree here, the buy/sell hybrid deadlines and the cross our fingers and stand pat despite the wheels coming off deadlines.  2022/2023/2034 were tough.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Kimmi said:

Stop.

If you had said 3rd place team at best, I might have been able to let that slide, but 4th place at best?  It's possible that we end up in 4th place, but it's also possible that we win the division.  Or at least finish in 2nd.  It will be a competitive division, for sure, but give the Red Sox a little more credit.

Stop. 

Had you said that 2nd was as likely 4th, I might have been able to let that slide, but 1st place? Its also possible we finish last. Or at least finish 4th. It will be a competetive division, but give the competition a little more credit.

Note: I honestly do believe that 2nd is as likely as 4th.  I would say 1st: 7.5%, 2nd:25%, 3rd: 35% 4th:25%, 5th: 7.5%

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, Kimmi said:

Stop.

If you had said 3rd place team at best, I might have been able to let that slide, but 4th place at best?  It's possible that we end up in 4th place, but it's also possible that we win the division.  Or at least finish in 2nd.  It will be a competitive division, for sure, but give the Red Sox a little more credit.

I would if I thought they deserved it. I see three ALE teams that are likely better than us. I think we are better than the Rays. Sure-anything is possible and we could win the division. I don’t see it happening. We won’t score enough runs. 

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I would if I thought they deserved it. I see three ALE teams that are likely better than us. I think we are better than the Rays. Sure-anything is possible and we could win the division. I don’t see it happening. We won’t score enough runs. 

4th place at best is irrational. "4th place" as a prediction is not.  But its not rational to consider 4th best case.

[FredLynn]

58 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

4th place at best is irrational. "4th place" as a prediction is not.  But its not rational to consider 4th best case.

I think we will finish in 4th place. I also think the odds of finishing last are greater than finishing above 4th place. Hence 4th place at best is accurate.

[moonslav59]

Final 2025 fWAR

fWAR Team (Everyday/Pitching)>>> 2026 Projected

50.6 NYY (34.3/16.3)>>> 47.5 (-3.1 seems about right)

44.3 TOR (32.6/11.7)>>>47.9 (+3.6- I don't see it)

43.6 BOS (25.2/18.4)>>>46.2 (+2.6 I think we did better than TOR)

31.0 TBR (15.7/15.3)>>>38.6 (+7.6 Huh????)

24.1 BAL (14.1/10.0) >>>45.3 (+21.2 Whoa, Nellie!!!)

[notin]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Kimmi, I got it done!

BTV accepts:

Masa (+$5M) Sandoval & Bleis for Christian Javier

Javier is owed $21.4M x 2, but Masa (18) Sandoval (7.8) =$25.8 (The $5M kinda evens it out)

Houston has to either bench one of Yoshida and Yordan Alvarez or play him in the field?  I don’t see that as a selling point.  
 

Not sure why Houston doesn’t just sign OBP Machine Jesse Winker.  How much can he be asking for at this point?

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

I Houston has to either bench one of Yoshida and Yordan Alvarez or play him in the field?  I don’t see that as a selling point.  
 

Not sure why Houston doesn’t just sign OBP Machine Jesse Winker.  How much can he be asking for at this point?

This was about Masa being the LH'd OF'er they seek.

It's not happening.

[moonslav59]

Bassitt to O's for $18.5M/1.

[Larry Cook]

44 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bassitt to O's for $18.5M/1.

I saw an interview where the Baltimore gm was good with his rotation. I guess, the reporters helped him to see reality 

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

HOU would say no, unless they see value in Masa as an OF'er. (They have a DH)

I would do it too, but see no motivation for Houston.

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I agree here, the buy/sell hybrid deadlines and the cross our fingers and stand pat despite the wheels coming off deadlines.  2022/2023/2034 were tough.

We were too good to tank, but not good enough to win.  The thing that annoyed me the most was that, even if we got lucky enough for a playoff slot, we didn't have the rotation to support any success.  We'd have been a material underdog in every playoff series.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I would do it too, but see no motivation for Houston.

It was meant as at least half a joke.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

We were too good to tank, but not good enough to win.  The thing that annoyed me the most was that, even if we got lucky enough for a playoff slot, we didn't have the rotation to support any success.  We'd have been a material underdog in every playoff series.

It would have taken a miracle. Planning for a miracle is foolish.

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

This was about Masa being the LH'd OF'er they seek.

It's not happening.

If they didn't want Duran before, why would they settle for Masa now? 

They were holding out for Abreu and Breslow didn't want to give him up.

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I saw an interview where the Baltimore gm was good with his rotation. I guess, the reporters helped him to see reality 

BAL is one of the teams that seems like it's actively trying to get better. They struggled at the start of '25, but were fine after the first 1.5 months or so. They should be a lot tougher this year. 

A lot of young players, some of which may ever pan out (should be a red flag to the Red Sox and how they are planning things TBH).

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they didn't want Duran before, why would they settle for Masa now? 

They were holding out for Abreu and Breslow didn't want to give him up.

Did you miss the comment about joking?

Nobody wants Masa. He'd be gone, if just one team halfway wanted him or just mentioned his name in a conversation with Brez.

[drewski6]

15 hours ago, FredLynn said:

I think we will finish in 4th place. I also think the odds of finishing last are greater than finishing above 4th place. Hence 4th place at best is accurate.

Im now questioning if you understand what "at best" means.  And no even with Bassitt on Os , this still isnt true.  It does make 4th place more likely tho, and might make it a coin flip with third place.  Right now, I would guess: 1st place: 8%, 2nd: 22.5%, 3rd:32.5%, 4th: 30%, 5th: 7%

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Im now questioning if you understand what "at best" means.  And no even with Bassitt on Os , this still isnt true.  It does make 4th place more likely tho, and might make it a coin flip with third place.  Right now, I would guess: 1st place: 8%, 2nd: 22.5%, 3rd:32.5%, 4th: 30%, 5th: 7%

Feels like an Aaron Judge injury season to me. 🤔

World Series hangover for the Jays? 🧐

Red Sox division win? 😎

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Im now questioning if you understand what "at best" means.  And no even with Bassitt on Os , this still isnt true.  It does make 4th place more likely tho, and might make it a coin flip with third place.  Right now, I would guess: 1st place: 8%, 2nd: 22.5%, 3rd:32.5%, 4th: 30%, 5th: 7%

The O's have finally made some serious moves, but they started so far behind us, I'm not sure how close we can rate them.

We won 14 more games than they did in 2025 and 22 more by the Pythagorean numbers. IMO, we got better, so in theory, they have to make up more than 14-22 games.

I know I let my hatred towards the Yanks cloud my judgement, and I've been predicting their decline, mostly due to age factors, having a dumb manager and GM, and quite frankly spending on worse players than we have in recent years. I thought losing Soto was going to kill them, but they got a career year from Grisham and some ole fogies did better than I thought. I'm going to run my mantra again, this winter: I think the Yanks get worse in 2026.

BTW, we were in second place on September 10, 2025. It's not a great leap to think we will pass them.

TOR way outperformed their Pythagorean numbers (by 6 wins.) I'm not sure how much that matters, but it's a straw I grasped. I don't think losing Bichette & Bassitt and adding a questionable Cease & Oko is going to make up for that loss. Ponce could be a big help- or not.

I think 1st and 2nd place are well within our reach, and not so much because we made any great gains, but because the other teams failed to improve or even got worse. I also look at our key players positions on the prime bell curve and think we have a better chance of seeing improvement that they do.

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Feels like an Aaron Judge injury season to me. 🤔

I almost wrote this, yesterday.

[moonslav59]

AL Projected Team fWAR

47.9 TOR

47.5 NYY

46.8 SEA

46.2 BOS (-1.7 from TOR/ -1.3 from NYY/ -0.6 from SEA)

45.3 BAL

44.3 DET

42.3 HOU

[Bellhorn04]

19 hours ago, Kimmi said:

Stop.

If you had said 3rd place team at best, I might have been able to let that slide, but 4th place at best?  It's possible that we end up in 4th place, but it's also possible that we win the division.  Or at least finish in 2nd.  It will be a competitive division, for sure, but give the Red Sox a little more credit.

Fred is Eeyore on Steroids.  Quite a picture, I know. 😉

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Im now questioning if you understand what "at best" means.  And no even with Bassitt on Os , this still isnt true.  It does make 4th place more likely tho, and might make it a coin flip with third place.  Right now, I would guess: 1st place: 8%, 2nd: 22.5%, 3rd:32.5%, 4th: 30%, 5th: 7%

What finishing in 4th place "at best" means is that I believe it is more likely we will finish there more than anywhere else, but it is more likely that we finish last than 3rd or above.