Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, but if the team thinks there is a zero chance they lose the arb, and we are not sure they think this, why find any middle ground?

I agree it would depend on if Detroit thinks they have a good chance of winning.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, but if the team thinks there is a zero chance they lose the arb, and we are not sure they think this, why find any middle ground?

Because every agent in MLB wouldn't waste time negotiating with them going forward. To freeze out the other side completely is a bad look. 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Because every agent in MLB wouldn't waste time negotiating with them going forward. To freeze out the other side completely is a bad look. 

This is arb negotiations not FA ones.

Okay, they offer $20M, despite knowing they only would have had to pay $19M.

[notin]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Another classic injury-plagued pitcher added. YIKES!

How many injuries has Cole Ragans had?

[notin]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Because every agent in MLB wouldn't waste time negotiating with them going forward. To freeze out the other side completely is a bad look. 

And yet it happens all the time…

[notin]

26 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I agree it would depend on if Detroit thinks they have a good chance of winning.

[Comment removed upon further review]

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Why?

Juan Soto, $31M (2024)
Shohei Ohtani, $30M (2023)
Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. $28.5M (2025)
Mookie Betts, $27M (2020)
Nolan Arenado, $26M (2019)
Josh Donaldson, $23M (2018)
Juan Soto, $23M (2023)
Bryce Harper, $21.625M (2018)
Francisco Lindor, $21.3 (2021)
Pete Alonso, $20.5M (2024)

So… no pitchers?  
 

Is Price’s $19.75mill still thr record for pitchers?

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

So… no pitchers?  
 

Is Price’s $19.75mill still thr record for pitchers?

It won't be the record after this year. 

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, notin said:

How many injuries has Cole Ragans had?

Well, two in 2025.

He battled injuries through the minors. He started in 2016, had two TJS, missed 2018, 2019 and 2020 fully, and then started 17 games in '21 before reaching the majors in 2022 after 60 GS in 6 minor league years.

That's not enough?

[notin]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It won't be the record after this year. 

No but it puts a damper on Skubal’s chances of getting $32mill…

[notin]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, two in 2025.

He battled injuries through the minors. He started in 2016, had two TJS, missed 2018, 2019 and 2020 fully, and then started 17 games in '21 before reaching the majors in 2022 after 60 GS in 6 minor league years.

That's not enough?

Oh Thsts plenty

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

KMarte is a much better hitter, but I agree, it makes more sense to just sign Bregman than to trade top assets for KMarte. I have issues with the concept of "making sense," since that involves thinking JH might or will spend large and long on a player that is not great.

I'm not even sure JH would okay $50M/2 or $70M/3 for E Suarez.

Didnt you say the exact opposite to me yesterday?

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

No but it puts a damper on Skubal’s chances of getting $32mill…

I said 1% chance he gets that $32M. Maybe I went too low, but I'd say the odds are very low Skubal wins.

I think he messed up his bargaining position by going absurdly high, and not because he's not worth $32M on the open market, but because that is just way too high for the arb model to accept.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

No but it puts a damper on Skubal’s chances of getting $32mill…

Skubal is going to hand the arbiter a PSA 10 rookie and Skubal will walk out with $33M. 

Those are the facts and the facts are undisputed. 

[drewski6]

Go Skubal!

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Didnt you say the exact opposite to me yesterday?

I think Marte is a way better player than Bregman, especially on offense, which is our #1 need, right now, IMO.

I'd rather have Marte, but having Bregman and the players needed to get Marte is probably the better idea. I don't think we'll pay Bregman more than other teams will offer, so that's why I think Marte was the better option. Now that he is apparently "off the market," it's Bregman or Suarez. (IMO, there is almost the same odds of us signing Bichette as Tucker or Framber- close to zero.)

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Marte is a way better player than Bregman, especially on offense, which is our #1 need, right now, IMO.

I'd rather have Marte, but having Bregman and the players needed to get Marte is probably the better idea. I don't think we'll pay Bregman more than other teams will offer, so that's why I think Marte was the better option. Now that he is apparently "off the market," it's Bregman or Suarez. (IMO, there is almost the same odds of us signing Bichette as Tucker or Framber- close to zero.)

I dont know what you mean by you dont think we'll pay bregman more than other teams will offer, we dont know what other teams have offered.

When both were options (Bregman, Marte) of course theres a point of negotiation with either , where you start focusing on the other side....SO for example Bregman laughs in your fact at 170 (not saying he did or would) you start focusing with Arizona for Marte, Arizona demands Roman Anthony or nothing, you start focusing on Bregman (and other options).....I get all that.

So sure, there is always a point where you start looking for alternatives.

Obvs new news changes things - but would I rather sign Bregman or trade for Marte. It depends on the cost for both.

Id rather trade Duran and Harrison than sign Bregman for 200m
But Id rather sign Bregman for $150m than trade Roman for Marte

And I know Im not using realistic, but the point remains.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont know what you mean by you dont think we'll pay bregman more than other teams will offer, we dont know what other teams have offered.

It means what it says.

We haven't gone 5 years since Yoshida. We haven't gone 6 since Story. We haven't gone $170M since Price.

We went 3 years on Bregman last winter with a generous optout clause. He's a year older, now.

Why is my opinion so hard to understand?

Maybe we go $170M/6. I won't be shocked, but I'm not expecting it. I do expect he gets close to that or more. Maybe I'm wrong on that, to. We all have varying opinions on this and other issues.

[UtahSox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Another classic injury-plagued pitcher added. YIKES!

For a classic unproven SP  and Duran? Yep!

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Id rather trade Duran and Harrison than sign Bregman for 200m

Without knowing names, ir is my opinion, we can get a player (2B/3B/SP2-2) as good as Bregman for those two.

It hurts losing those two, but my theory involves using the money saved to then sign Suarez or a SP, or maybe two nice RP'ers. Now, the balance looks plus.

Of course, if that doesn't happen, then maybe I don't make the trade and we just sign Rengifo and trade a couple bums for a better bum. Yipee!

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

For a classic unproven SP  and Duran? Yep!

The offer was Mayer & Duran. Is Mayer a pitcher?

Besides, I just said yikes about Ragans being injury prone. He might still be worth the risk, but the problem is we'd need 2 infielders after trading Mayer. Maybe sign Bregman, make that trade and cross your finger. Play Romy at 2B or give KC another crack at it.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It means what it says.

We haven't gone 5 years since Yoshida. We haven't gone 6 since Story. We haven't gone $170M since Price.

We went 3 years on Bregman last winter with a generous optout clause. He's a year older, now.

Why is my opinion so hard to understand?

Maybe we go $170M/6. I won't be shocked, but I'm not expecting it. I do expect he gets close to that or more. Maybe I'm wrong on that, to. We all have varying opinions on this and other issues.

Teams dont intentionally bid against themselves. Maybe rarely.  I agree that the Red Sox wont intentionally give Bregman way more money than his second best offer, but whats that really saying.

Yesterday you said that you would rather trade for marte at 15m , you dont think the sox would go over 264, and that you would rather trade for marte than sign bregman (and start trading Duran for players making less to get under 264)

Today , you are saying that youd rather sign Bregman than pay the trade capital for Marte.

Not trying to call you out , and you are allowed to change your mind....Im genuinely asking, 1 of 3 things happened here either

1. you changed your mind and think the sox are willing to go above 264
2. you still dont think sox would go above 264, but youd now rather sign bregman and trade to get back under that number and youd rather do that than trade for marte (change from yesterday)
3. you think the sox can ink bregman and stay under 264 CBT

Im jsut trying to understand.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Teams dont intentionally bid against themselves. Maybe rarely.  I agree that the Red Sox wont intentionally give Bregman way more money than his second best offer, but whats that really saying.

Yesterday you said that you would rather trade for marte at 15m , you dont think the sox would go over 264, and that you would rather trade for marte than sign bregman (and start trading Duran for players making less to get under 264)

Today , you are saying that youd rather sign Bregman than pay the trade capital for Marte.

Not trying to call you out , and you are allowed to change your mind....Im genuinely asking, 1 of 3 things happened here either

1. you changed your mind and think the sox are willing to go above 264
2. you still dont think sox would go above 264, but youd now rather sign bregman and trade to get back under that number and youd rather do that than trade for marte (change from yesterday)
3. you think the sox can ink bregman and stay under 264 CBT

Im jsut trying to understand.

I don't think the Sox go over $264. If they sign Bregman, they will give significant defferals and or make a trade (likely the $7.8M Duran maybe coupled with the $2.7 Crawford) for something that costs less enough to get us under $264.

That being said, I don't know what JH will approve. Nobody does. That's been a pretty consistent opinion by me for many years. If he does allow Brez to go over, then my opinions will change accordingly.

One big reason I was all over the Marte idea was his $15M AAV number. I wasn't thrilled about trading away top talent. Maybe I underestimated what it would take to get him. I'm open to the idea that I did that, certainly on some of my suggested offers, I did. I exploited the BTV values given to guys like Crawford and Casas. I do think a few of my offers were realistic and borderline overpays not worth it from the Sox side, and even then, maybe not enough for AZ to say yes.

I'd rather have KMarte than Bregman. Not knowing what it would take is the wildcard. No to Anthony. yes to Mayer, but then we still need an infielder. I might give Tolle or Early, but that's a big ding on the comp with just signing Bregman to $30M AAV. Part of my like of KMarte is that I felt like adding what we can afford to sign with KMart over Bregman could change the comp. If we traded Duran and Crawford, we could add $10M to the $25M saved by trading Mayer, Witherspoon and Phillips for Marte, and then sign Suarez for that $25M. We'd also have a pitcher (Lodolo?) for Duran. So KMarte, Suarez & Lodolo.

Yes, I'll take KMarte & Suarez with no Duran, Mayer, Crawford, Witherspoon and Phillips over signing Bregman and needing to trade Duran just to stay under $264. We pay Bregman $30M a year and maybe get it to $24M AAV, Trade Duran for Lodolo and save another $4M, okay, we're under $264M. We have Bregman and Lodolo with no Duran. We still have Mayer, Crawford and the rest of the AZ package I suggested or others.

In that light, but it is jus speculation, yes, I'd choose KMarte and everything else over Bregman and all other stuff. Maybe I missed something. I just kinda hurriedly threw this together.

I'm fine with signing Bregman and keeping the KMarte trade pieces in te system or use them for a SP2, too.

In short, yes, it sounds like I'm all over the map, but this is not a simple Bregman v KMarte choice, to me.

[mvp 78]

35 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Teams dont intentionally bid against themselves. Maybe rarely.  I agree that the Red Sox wont intentionally give Bregman way more money than his second best offer, but whats that really saying.

Yesterday you said that you would rather trade for marte at 15m , you dont think the sox would go over 264, and that you would rather trade for marte than sign bregman (and start trading Duran for players making less to get under 264)

Today , you are saying that youd rather sign Bregman than pay the trade capital for Marte.

Not trying to call you out , and you are allowed to change your mind....Im genuinely asking, 1 of 3 things happened here either

1. you changed your mind and think the sox are willing to go above 264
2. you still dont think sox would go above 264, but youd now rather sign bregman and trade to get back under that number and youd rather do that than trade for marte (change from yesterday)
3. you think the sox can ink bregman and stay under 264 CBT

Im jsut trying to understand.

Speier initially suggested the Sox not wanting to go over the 2nd threshold. I agree with others on here that there is functionally no difference between going over the 1st and 2nd thresholds. May as well go all the way up towards 284 and the 3rd. 

Unless yer el cheapo! 

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't think the Sox go over $264. If they sign Bregman, they will give significant defferals and or make a trade (likely the $7.8M Duran maybe coupled with the $2.7 Crawford) for something that costs less enough to get us under $264.

That being said, I don't know what JH will approve. Nobody does. That's been a pretty consistent opinion by me for many years. If he does allow Brez to go over, then my opinions will change accordingly.

One big reason I was all over the Marte idea was his $15M AAV number. I wasn't thrilled about trading away top talent. Maybe I underestimated what it would take to get him. I'm open to the idea that I did that, certainly on some of my suggested offers, I did. I exploited the BTV values given to guys like Crawford and Casas. I do think a few of my offers were realistic and borderline overpays not worth it from the Sox side, and even then, maybe not enough for AZ to say yes.

I'd rather have KMarte than Bregman. Not knowing what it would take is the wildcard. No to Anthony. yes to Mayer, but then we still need an infielder. I might give Tolle or Early, but that's a big ding on the comp with just signing Bregman to $30M AAV. Part of my like of KMarte is that I felt like adding what we can afford to sign with KMart over Bregman could change the comp. If we traded Duran and Crawford, we could add $10M to the $25M saved by trading Mayer, Witherspoon and Phillips for Marte, and then sign Suarez for that $25M. We'd also have a pitcher (Lodolo?) for Duran. So KMarte, Suarez & Lodolo.

Yes, I'll take KMarte & Suarez with no Duran, Mayer, Crawford, Witherspoon and Phillips over signing Bregman and needing to trade Duran just to stay under $264. We pay Bregman $30M a year and maybe get it to $24M AAV, Trade Duran for Lodolo and save another $4M, okay, we're under $264M. We have Bregman and Lodolo with no Duran. We still have Mayer, Crawford and the rest of the AZ package I suggested or others.

In that light, but it is jus speculation, yes, I'd choose KMarte and everything else over Bregman and all other stuff. Maybe I missed something. I just kinda hurriedly threw this together.

I'm fine with signing Bregman and keeping the KMarte trade pieces in te system or use them for a SP2, too.

In short, yes, it sounds like I'm all over the map, but this is not a simple Bregman v KMarte choice, to me.

The red sox have an outstanding offer to bregman that pushes them above 264.  If he says yes, i dont think we'll trade with the intention of getting under 264.  If we like Lodolo more than duran, and that so happens to get us under the number thats one thing.

But the 264 is barely a number.

If you go over 244m thats a big deal, so it makes sense as number you want to circle because if you go over it , your tax for going over it again next year is higher.  284 is a nubmer because if you go over it, your draft picks move back.  264 does nothing.  The difference in tax between 270 and 263 is very very very little.

I dont think they can sign Bregman and stay under 264 for tax purposes. I think theyll be deferrals but not enough to get the cbt number THAT low. I think if bregman says yes, we'll be over 264.  And JH already approved it, thats why there is an offer in bregmans hand.  Theres only like 20m before 264. If the AAV of the outstanding offer to bregman was 20m (even net of deferrals) nobody would be calling it "aggressive"

Right now, whether or not the sox go over 264 is up to bregman (my opinion) because if he says yes, i think we'll be over and stay over.

Now to some of your other points....If lets say the phills sign Bo Bichette right now and then say we'll give Bohm away for free (like a prospect nobody has ever heard of). Then maybe we pull our offer for Breg and take Bohm for a non-prospect , prospect.  Maybe the sox decide that if another option emerges like Bohm, theyd rather than than restricting future spending.

Your point about is bregman worth restricting future spending? Its a good question and worth pondering.

But none of this has anything to do with that 264 number.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Speier initially suggested the Sox not wanting to go over the 2nd threshold. I agree with others on here that there is functionally no difference between going over the 1st and 2nd thresholds. May as well go all the way up towards 284 and the 3rd. 

Unless yer el cheapo! 

The thing that gets me is not the actual second line, it the idea that JH seems to only like to go over the first line by less than a $1.5M tax. He seems to hate paying taxes more than higher salaries with low AAVs, even if the tax is less than the salary-AAV number. (I have no evidence for this, but it seem to be true.)

Of course, the 2018 and 2019 seasons had massive ax hits- way more than seasons from the early and mid 2000's and 2010's.

I do agree that maybe that second line is not as important as I thought, before. The tax rate does bump up some, but I think it's only on the dollars spent over the second line, so that's kinda minimal.

[drewski6]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The thing that gets me is not the actual second line, it the idea that JH seems to only like to go over the first line by less than a $1.5M tax. He seems to hate paying taxes more than higher salaries with low AAVs, even if the tax is less than the salary-AAV number. (I have no evidence for this, but it seem to be true.)

Of course, the 2018 and 2019 seasons had massive ax hits- way more than seasons from the early and mid 2000's and 2010's.

I do agree that maybe that second line is not as important as I thought, before. The tax rate does bump up some, but I think it's only on the dollars spent over the second line, so that's kinda minimal.

Exactly, on all of your points.  I understand every dollar above 244 hurts more and more, but they dont start hurting much more after 264.  After 244 you pay 1.3 for every dollar spent until 264 when that number bumps to 1.42 (for every dollar past 264 up to 284 where it bumps again). JH is still taking steps in the right direction. We will almost 100% be over 244. We are likely to be over 264 (my opinion).

On a 263m payroll, our tax is 5.7M (30% of each dollar above 244, so 30% of 19m)
On a 265m payroll our tax is 6.42m (30% of each dollar between 244M and 263.99, so 6m+ 42% of each dollar after 264M).

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Exactly, on all of your points.  I understand every dollar about 244 hurts more and more, but they dont start hurting a ton more after 264.  JH is still taking steps in the right direction. We will almost 100% be over 244. We are likely to be over 264 (my opinion).

I'm glad we finally seemed to catch on to the deferred money ploy.

It might help offset the tax line hit those long extensions to the kids did to the near future budget. Eventually, these extensions will see the AAV become below the salaries, and they may be very helpful, assuming these guys are still doing well. (Campbell has yet to start doing well.)

Some felt we jumped the gun or overpaid on Bello and Rafaela, but both look like solid deals, now.

Bello's AAV is $9.2M. His salary jumps from $8.7M in '27 to $16.1M in '28 and $19.1M in '29 plus a low buyout option year for '30. ($21M w $1M buyout)

Rafaela's tax his is just $6.3M but for 8 years. His salary passes the AAV in 2029.

Campbell's AAV is $7.5M. His salary passes the AAV in 2030 ($9M) and goes to $16M by '32. He has two option years: $19M in '33 w $4M buyout and $21M for '34 w no buyout.

Anthony's bold extension has an AAV of $16.2M. he better be good! His salary tops the AAV in 2030. It goes u to $29M in 2033 with a $30M option for '34 and no buyout cost.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The thing that gets me is not the actual second line, it the idea that JH seems to only like to go over the first line by less than a $1.5M tax. He seems to hate paying taxes more than higher salaries with low AAVs, even if the tax is less than the salary-AAV number. (I have no evidence for this, but it seem to be true.)

Of course, the 2018 and 2019 seasons had massive ax hits- way more than seasons from the early and mid 2000's and 2010's.

I do agree that maybe that second line is not as important as I thought, before. The tax rate does bump up some, but I think it's only on the dollars spent over the second line, so that's kinda minimal.

We can't speak to what JH will do, only what to the ramifications are for going over each CBT threshold. If you can afford to go over the 1st, you may as well go over the 2nd IMO! The 3rd is a different issue as it impacts draft strategy and I can see how that is a no go for many organizations. 

[Old Red]

55 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Speier initially suggested the Sox not wanting to go over the 2nd threshold. I agree with others on here that there is functionally no difference between going over the 1st and 2nd thresholds. May as well go all the way up towards 284 and the 3rd. 

Unless yer el cheapo! 

Oh no! Calling JH el cheapo.🤫