Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i don't have an issue with Moon.  Seems like a decent guy but yeah some of posts are a bit long. I generally don't read all of them as a result.

Here's the short version: our spending level has been close to 2018 and 2019 for the 2025 and 2026 season. We maybe spend poorly, We may avoid large and long on FAs, but we are extending our best young players like never before.

I have some beefs with JH & Co, but he has been spending much more, recently.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

none since 2018 and only 2 postseason appearances. Do they WS titles in the early 2000's give JH a pass for as long as he owns the team ?

So, no WSC in the past 7 years?  Is that what the new standard is?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

So, no WSC in the past 7 years?  Is that what the new standard is?

Yup.

7 seasons and 2 playoffs. 7 seasons x 8 teams per playoff= 56

2/56= 1/28th.

The league avg is 1/30th. The average team should have made it 2 times.

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup.

7 seasons and 2 playoffs. 7 seasons x 8 teams per playoff= 56

2/56= 1/28th.

The league avg is 1/30th. The average team should have made it 2 times.

🤔

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Here's the short version: our spending level has been close to 2018 and 2019 for the 2025 and 2026 season. We maybe spend poorly, We may avoid large and long on FAs, but we are extending our best young players like never before.

I have some beefs with JH & Co, but he has been spending much more, recently.

What's the definition of spending level? I think it should be based on where you are in relation to the rest of the league.

2018 1st

2019 1st

2025 7th (CBT)

2025 12th (Year End 40 Man)

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What's the definition of spending level? I think it should be based on where you are in relation to the rest of the league.

2018 1st

2019 1st

2025 7th (CBT)

2025 12th (Year End 40 Man)

Having the highest ticket prices, and payroll to revenue to gets mentioned a lot too. Of course being first in 2018-2019 would not be first today either.

[Old Red]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I can see some thinking yes.

2018 seems long ago, but there are 30 teams in MLB- maybe 10 that are really building for a strong chance, e very year.

The history of 2 year lulls in sending seemed okay. Then, he went 4 years, and it's the firing squad for him.

Out on the street, airways, and media it’s not the 4 WS that the Red Sox have won under JH, but the losing-last place teams especially since 2013 that gets talked about more justified, or not.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What's the definition of spending level? I think it should be based on where you are in relation to the rest of the league.

2018 1st

2019 1st

2025 7th (CBT)

2025 12th (Year End 40 Man)

I'm fine with your view, but I think differently.

Among other things, I look at Lux Tax dollars and only 6 teams paid a higher 2025 Lux Tax than BOS. 

I look at spending trends, and we have certainly trended upwards at a sharp incline. Granted, this needs context, as we cut so much spending over the previous 4 seasons, that upward inclines are skewed.

I am thrilled to see the change in philosophy on extending our best young players to long deal- years beyond their control ends. The extensions to vets like Devers, Crochet and Chapman are also good signs of change.

This in no way excuses what JH & Co. did beginning in 2019 and more or less continuing until the end of 2024.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Out on the street, airways, and media it’s not the 4 WS that the Red Sox have won under JH, but the losing-last place teams especially since 2013 that gets talked about more justified, or not.

That talk never bothered me. I was part of those talks for many of years. Of course it was and still is justified. JH stood idle as the team tanked.

That does not mean we have to misrepresent what he's done recently just to drive home a point.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Having the highest ticket prices, and payroll to revenue to gets mentioned a lot too. Of course being first in 2018-2019 would not be first today either.

Those ticket prices must have inflated though!

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

That talk never bothered me. I was part of those talks for many of years. Of course it was and still is justified. JH stood idle as the team tanked.

That does not mean we have to misrepresent what he's done recently just to drive home a point.

Cut Devers because of his high salary. We know what he's done recently. Instead of signing a FA, they are trading away a substantial part of their farm (not sustainable). 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

That talk never bothered me. I was part of those talks for many of years. Of course it was and still is justified. JH stood idle as the team tanked.

That does not mean we have to misrepresent what he's done recently just to drive home a point.

I’m just saying what gets talked about the most. I guess also it depends on what cheap means to each one. It sounds like different things just on here.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm fine with your view, but I think differently.

Among other things, I look at Lux Tax dollars and only 6 teams paid a higher 2025 Lux Tax than BOS. 

I look at spending trends, and we have certainly trended upwards at a sharp incline. Granted, this needs context, as we cut so much spending over the previous 4 seasons, that upward inclines are skewed.

I am thrilled to see the change in philosophy on extending our best young players to long deal- years beyond their control ends. The extensions to vets like Devers, Crochet and Chapman are also good signs of change.

This in no way excuses what JH & Co. did beginning in 2019 and more or less continuing until the end of 2024.

Take out Devers from the '25  CBT calc and they drop to 10th. 

From the time JH bought the team through 2019, they were a top 5 payroll every season. Now we have to give them credit for ending a year at 7th? Nah. 

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Cut Devers because of his high salary. We know what he's done recently. Instead of signing a FA, they are trading away a substantial part of their farm (not sustainable). 

McAdams asked Brez if it was the Red Sox philosophy to make trades instead of signing FA, and Brez kind of said it was without saying it something about not limiting options.

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, Old Red said:

McAdams asked Brez if it was the Red Sox philosophy to make trades instead of signing FA, and Brez kind of said it was without saying it something about not limiting options.

Smart enough to go to Yale, too dumb to just not talk to the media.

[notin]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup.

7 seasons and 2 playoffs. 7 seasons x 8 teams per playoff= 56

2/56= 1/28th.

The league avg is 1/30th. The average team should have made it 2 times.

Averages?

Is it really true the average team has made 2 postseason appearances in that timeframe?  Or does using averages ignore uneven distributions of data?

Myself, you and Bill Gates have an average net worth of $37billion USD.  Does that properly represent your financial picture?  I will fess up it’s not an accurate portrayal of mine…

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Averages?

Is it really true the average team has made 2 postseason appearances in that timeframe?  Or does using averages ignore uneven distributions of data?

Myself, you and Bill Gates have an average net worth of $37billion USD.  Does that properly represent your financial picture?  I will fess up it’s not an accurate portrayal of mine…

My point was that we did about what a random chance study would expect.

I'm not happy with that. We should have done better. We spent more than most teams over those years. We underperformed based on spending. That's on Bloom. The reduced new spending was on JH.

JH has been spending more since the Devers extension, so let's see where we go from here. If this team looked like crap, I'd be more upset about spending levels and management philosophies. I think we are trending in the right direction. We are spending significantly more- just in different ways. We made the playoffs in 2025 and I'm hoping with 1 or 2 more additions, we can be a top 4-5 team on paper by opening day.

I have not felt like we are one big player away for a long time.

 

 

[mvp 78]

7 seasons. 84 teams made the playoffs, including the WC. 

3 teams didn't make the playoffs at all: PITT, COL, LAA

1 team went all 7 years: LAD

6 teams went 5+ times

11 teams went 4+ times

10 teams went exactly 2 times (mode and median, but mean is 3)

Playoff format was 10/16/10/12/12/12/12

 

[UtahSox]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I can see some thinking yes.

2018 seems long ago, but there are 30 teams in MLB- maybe 10 that are really building for a strong chance, e very year.

The history of 2 year lulls in sending seemed okay. Then, he went 4 years, and it's the firing squad for him.

This is one thing I strongly dislike some Red Sox fans do from time to time- I refuse to compare the Boston Red Sox to the 30 team MLB. We should have very little in common with Rays, Rockies, Royals, A’s of MLB
They should and MUST always be compared to the others in the big 4 (Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees) lately you could be kind and add (Phillies, Mets, Bluejays) but at worst we should compare everything the Red Sox do vs these others in top7. 
It’s interesting to watch the Blue Jays starting to carry the same kind of aura the Red Sox had from about 2000 to 2018. It feels like we’re watching a team transition into a national brand, with revenue accelerating quickly and momentum building on and off the field.

If I were John Henry, sitting on $100+ million in additional revenue and a roster on the brink of breaking wide open, I’d be aggressive. I’d go get Bichette and Bregman. Then I’d trade Tristan Casas, Marcelo Mayer, and Campbell or Ceddanne Rafaela to land frontline pitching — whether that’s Alcantara with Cabrera, Ragans with Bubic, or separate deals for someone like Peralta or Skubal.

What you can’t do is allow Toronto to spend heavily, succeed, and grow unchecked. You want them to feel the sting of going all-in and still falling short. If the Blue Jays fully ascend on this trajectory, the AL East won’t just be the toughest division — it’ll be the most punishing path to the playoffs in baseball, by a wide margin.

[UtahSox]

42 minutes ago, notin said:

Averages?

Is it really true the average team has made 2 postseason appearances in that timeframe?  Or does using averages ignore uneven distributions of data?

Myself, you and Bill Gates have an average net worth of $37billion USD.  Does that properly represent your financial picture?  I will fess up it’s not an accurate portrayal of mine…

The framework of the argument is wrong because averages are over 30 teams who gives a sh** about the 30 team MLB. The Red Sox should only compare themselves to 6 teams right now.

And of those seven teams, is two playoff appearances in seven seasons average???  abso-freaking-lutely it’s average at best. The Red Sox have very little in common with the Tampa Bay rays /Miami Marlins of the world etc.  IMO comparison should have their data removed.

[UtahSox]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

7 seasons. 84 teams made the playoffs, including the WC. 

3 teams didn't make the playoffs at all: PITT, COL, LAA

1 team went all 7 years: LAD

6 teams went 5+ times

11 teams went 4+ times

10 teams went exactly 2 times (mode and median, but mean is 3)

Playoff format was 10/16/10/12/12/12/12

 

Now do this exercise with Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, Bluejays only….. in 7 seasons what is average? How many WS appearances is avg? Championship series is avg? How many do Red Sox have?

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

This is one thing I strongly dislike some Red Sox fans do from time to time- I refuse to compare the Boston Red Sox to the 30 team MLB. We should have very little in common with Rays, Rockies, Royals, A’s of MLB
They should and MUST always be compared to the others in the big 4 (Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees) lately you could be kind and add (Phillies, Mets, Bluejays) but at worst we should compare everything the Red Sox do vs these others in top7. 
It’s interesting to watch the Blue Jays starting to carry the same kind of aura the Red Sox had from about 2000 to 2018. It feels like we’re watching a team transition into a national brand, with revenue accelerating quickly and momentum building on and off the field.

If I were John Henry, sitting on $100+ million in additional revenue and a roster on the brink of breaking wide open, I’d be aggressive. I’d go get Bichette and Bregman. Then I’d trade Tristan Casas, Marcelo Mayer, and Campbell or Ceddanne Rafaela to land frontline pitching — whether that’s Alcantara with Cabrera, Ragans with Bubic, or separate deals for someone like Peralta or Skubal.

What you can’t do is allow Toronto to spend heavily, succeed, and grow unchecked. You want them to feel the sting of going all-in and still falling short. If the Blue Jays fully ascend on this trajectory, the AL East won’t just be the toughest division — it’ll be the most punishing path to the playoffs in baseball, by a wide margin.

Good points here. The Red Sox used to be one of the big boys, but now the boys are bigger, and there are more of them.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

The framework of the argument is wrong because averages are over 30 teams who gives a sh** about the 30 team MLB. The Red Sox should only compare themselves to 6 teams right now.

And of those seven teams, is two playoff appearances in seven seasons average???  abso-freaking-lutely it’s average at best. The Red Sox have very little in common with the Tampa Bay rays /Miami Marlins of the world etc.  IMO comparison should have their data removed.

Sox made the playoffs as much as the Marlins did since 2019. 🫠

[mvp 78]

Or just look at the teams that only made it in twice:

Red Sox - ? 

A's - ownership nightmare

Reds - little league team

White Sox - joke franchise

Marlins - c'mon

Cubs - ownership can't figure out if they are spending or not

Mariners - missed playoffs 02-21

Mets - lolMets a team that will always find a banana peel to step on

Orioles - old ownership was historically awful, new ownership didn't spend at first

Tigers - bottom half of the payroll since 2019

That's not the tier the Sox should be in.

[FredLynn]

On 1/3/2026 at 9:01 AM, notin said:

My New Year’s resolution is to take folks even less seriously when they blatantly say John Henry is running the Red Sox with his own money…

Who is the principal owner of the franchise?

[FredLynn]

On 1/3/2026 at 9:16 AM, JoeBrady said:

This relates back to one of my earlier comments.  Some fans think the JH is cheap because he won't sign their favorite player.  And their favorite player is usually the shiniest object, not the best value or the best fit.

Yeah, well, so far all he is signing this year are some pretty dull objects.

[FredLynn]

On 1/3/2026 at 11:22 AM, moonslav59 said:

But you and others keep saying he's not spending or is "cheap." Spending unwisely is a different story and is more on Brez than JH, anyway. Sure, JH might be insisting on no long term deals, so that ties Brez's hands, but there are some good deals out there that are not long, and we have made some good ones and some bad ones (more from Bloom than Brez.)

Was the Breggie deal unwise?

Was the Chapman deal and extension unwise?

Was the Crochet trade and extension unwise?

Were the Devers, Bello, Rafaela, Campbell & Anthony extensions unwise?

Of course, some unwise moves have been made, and of course that is what we always hear from you about- and only those.

The Buehler signing was a disaster, but it was far from a dumpster dive. He was a better bet than Kluber, Richards and paxton were- perhaps combined.

The Sale trade was a disaster, but made some sense at the time, and apparently the money saved was used to sign Gio, who did give us some value back, as without him we don't make the 2025 playoffs.

The Priester trade was a "dumpster dive" by MIL, and that worked out poorly for us, but some of our dives like for Romy, Wilson, Matz and others did fine.

Look, I'm not very optimistic either on JH's future spending plans, but they guy has spent a ton in the two decades in BOS. He's pulled back and splurged a few times. Based on our ranking in revenues, we can cry and cry that we need to spend more, but these rich guys are in this to make money and maximize profit. Focusing on one rich guy and acting like he's the evil one is misguided. Saying he's cheap is just plain untrue.

I'm not defending JH, but we are are about 8th or 9th in spending for 2026 and have dished out a lot of new cash since the Devers extension kicked in. We've lost a lot, too, including the Devers dump, but we are a top 8 or 9 spender, right now. That's not cheap.

If you wanna talk about unwise spending, talk about Bloom & Brez.

I realize that its the GMs who choose HOW to spend the little money Henry allows to trickle down to them (obviously its not enough to secure top flight talent). Solution: get a new GM.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Who is the principal owner of the franchise?

FSG, which is owned 40% (!!!) by John Henry. Werner is the second largest shareholder. Combined, they are well above 50% and can do whatever they want with FSG. 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

What's the definition of spending level? I think it should be based on where you are in relation to the rest of the league.

IMO, with little doubt in my mind, you should be ranked where your revenue is.

But that said, your level of talent impacts your salary, and vice versa.  Our record was 'okay' from 2020-2024, but we were only fringe contenders.  Signing phat long-term contracts was probably not in our best interests.

Of more concern, imho, is the structure.

• While I like Bregman, we gave up 2 draft picks & int'l money to get him.  For a l/t contract, that's acceptable.  For one year, plus his options, it is too much.
• IMHO, I see no problem with l/t alternating between being under the cap, and then exceeding the 2nd level.  That minimizes JH's tax burden, and helps us control the CBT penalties.  Where I do have a problem is when we exceed the first cap by $5M.  IMO, you're either in or your out.  If we go to $244.01, then we should go to $263.9.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I realize that its the GMs who choose HOW to spend the little money Henry allows to trickle down to them (obviously its not enough to secure top flight talent). Solution: get a new GM.

They couldn't get anyone to sign on last time. Breslow was the only guy who would take the job. If they fired him at any point in the next few years, Henry would find it even harder to fill the role. Whoever they got would have even less FO experience than Breslow had.