Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[harmony]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

A couple of writers are predicting that next year alcanterra will have the command and control needed to be a premier pitcher again 

FanGraphs projects 30-year-old Sandy Alcantara with 2.5 WAR and a 4.15 ERA next season in 31 starts covering 187 innings;

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/sandy-alcantara/18684/stats?position=P

Every pitcher carries risks.

[JoeBrady]

45 minutes ago, harmony said:

FanGraphs projects 30-year-old Sandy Alcantara with 2.5 WAR and a 4.15 ERA next season in 31 starts covering 187 innings;

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/sandy-alcantara/18684/stats?position=P

Every pitcher carries risks.

I wonder if their projections are based on static formulas, or if they change them depending on circumstances.  Alcantara had K9 rates of 8.4, 8.8 and 8.1 in 2020-21-22, and had an 8.0 in his final 12 starts of 2025.  It seems reasonable to me to expect 8.0+ in 2026.  But FG projects only 7.65.  Same thing with the walks.  It feels like they must be using the first half 2025 stats, but I am not sure that's appropriate coming off TJS.  I'd bet on an ERA of below 4.00 despite what FG has.

[Larry Cook]

15 hours ago, harmony said:

Any remote Seattle interest in MacKenzie Gore would be as a replacement for Luis Castillo as a No. 4 or 5 starter. Gore is projected to earn $4.7 million in 2026.

But Seattle has some impressive arms coming up through the system??? 

[harmony]

10 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

But Seattle has some impressive arms coming up through the system??? 

Pitchers Kade Anderson (No. 23), Ryan Sloan (No. 44) and Jurrangelo Cijntje (No. 90) are Top 100 prospects at MLB.com.

[Larry Cook]

30 minutes ago, harmony said:

Pitchers Kade Anderson (No. 23), Ryan Sloan (No. 44) and Jurrangelo Cijntje (No. 90) are Top 100 prospects at MLB.com.

Do they really need gore? 

[JoeBrady]

15 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Do they really need gore? 

Absolutely not, imo.  And unless the Nats have lost faith in Gore, I'm not sure why they would trade him at this point.

[moonslav59]

I think many teams want Gore, and trusting prospects is not ideal.

The Sox have some highly ranked prospects, and we aren't handing a rotation slot to any of them.

[harmony]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Absolutely not, imo.  And unless the Nats have lost faith in Gore, I'm not sure why they would trade him at this point.

The Nationals are unlikely to contend over their remaining two years of team control over MacKenzie Gore.

[Larry Cook]

54 minutes ago, harmony said:

The Nationals are unlikely to contend over their remaining two years of team control over MacKenzie Gore.

I guess trading him depends on how soon the nationals have quality prospects coming up from the minors???

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I guess trading him depends on how soon the nationals have quality prospects coming up from the minors???

That might have more to do with what they want in return than the idea of trading him.

If they are looking way down the line, maybe they ask for farther away prospects.

[Hitch]

On 11/29/2025 at 7:32 PM, JoeBrady said:

There is no coming clean with the fans, if for no other reason than no one can predict the future.  There might not be a co-ace available at any price.  The only one out there that might qualify as a 'co-ace' might be Greene.  And maybe Cincy won't trade him to us because everyone wants to help us.

Once you get to the next level of a #2, no one will ever agree on who qualifies as a #2.  Does anyone consider Burns or Chandler a #2?  But I'd prioritize them over almost anyone in baseball.  And again, they are very unlikely to be available.  Too many fans get overly involved in FO pronouncements and thinking that the FO should be advising them of everything that is going on.

Very well said. I think the only reason we're hearing so much more from the FO recently is because they've been getting hammered for not talking enough the past 5/6 years. 

I'd rather we heard next to nothing from Breslow and the rest personally, for leverage if nothing else. 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Very well said. I think the only reason we're hearing so much more from the FO recently is because they've been getting hammered for not talking enough the past 5/6 years. 

I'd rather we heard next to nothing from Breslow and the rest personally, for leverage if nothing else. 

To me, the "hammer" has been more about the lies & deception than the quiet.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

Very well said. I think the only reason we're hearing so much more from the FO recently is because they've been getting hammered for not talking enough the past 5/6 years. 

I'd rather we heard next to nothing from Breslow and the rest personally, for leverage if nothing else. 

Who has been hammering them (excluding twitter, message boards, etc.)? They seem to get off pretty easy from BOS media.

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Who has been hammering them (excluding twitter, message boards, etc.)? They seem to get off pretty easy from BOS media.

Not many that I see, but I stopped reading many Boston media outlet articles a while back.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Not many that I see, but I stopped reading many Boston media outlet articles a while back.

Too many hacks that have been writing the same drivel for 40 years OR it's 8 versions of the same story. 

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Too many hacks that have been writing the same drivel for 40 years OR it's 8 versions of the same story. 

Yup. Too much hype and not much substance or even truth.

[mvp 78]

Per Speier, starting to "take shape":

Duran, plus

for 

Ragans

 

[harmony]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Per Speier, starting to "take shape":

Duran, plus

for 

Ragans

 

 

[moonslav59]

BTV has Ragans at 79.4 and Duran at 49.5. I'd love to see Duran + Crawford (22) for Ragans. That would take the heat off needing big bats, but I'd still like one big one (KMarte or Alonso?)

Ragans is signed for 2 years and then has a final arb year.

$4.5M '26, $7.5M '27, then arb.

Duran is $7.7M and Crawford might make $2.8M, so that trade would "save" $6M in 2026. Add that to $21M or so and we'd have enough to sign one big bat, or trade for KMarte at $19.5M AAV.

[harmony]

50 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV has Ragans at 79.4 and Duran at 49.5. I'd love to see Duran + Crawford (22) for Ragans. That would take the heat off needing big bats, but I'd still like one big one (KMarte or Alonso?)

Ragans is signed for 2 years and then has a final arb year.

$4.5M '26, $7.5M '27, then arb.

Duran is $7.7M and Crawford might make $2.8M, so that trade would "save" $6M in 2026. Add that to $21M or so and we'd have enough to sign one big bat, or trade for KMarte at $19.5M AAV.

FWIW Cole Ragans would give the Red Sox three of the top nine pitchers in Steamer's projected 2026 WAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=&team=0&players=0&lg=all&z=1764560800&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV has Ragans at 79.4 and Duran at 49.5. I'd love to see Duran + Crawford (22) for Ragans. That would take the heat off needing big bats, but I'd still like one big one (KMarte or Alonso?)

Ragans is signed for 2 years and then has a final arb year.

$4.5M '26, $7.5M '27, then arb.

Duran is $7.7M and Crawford might make $2.8M, so that trade would "save" $6M in 2026. Add that to $21M or so and we'd have enough to sign one big bat, or trade for KMarte at $19.5M AAV.

Why question is (and almost always is), why is KC gifting us a prize like Ragans?  He missed three months, so I have to be skeptical.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV has Ragans at 79.4 and Duran at 49.5. I'd love to see Duran + Crawford (22) for Ragans. That would take the heat off needing big bats, but I'd still like one big one (KMarte or Alonso?)

Ragans is signed for 2 years and then has a final arb year.

$4.5M '26, $7.5M '27, then arb.

Duran is $7.7M and Crawford might make $2.8M, so that trade would "save" $6M in 2026. Add that to $21M or so and we'd have enough to sign one big bat, or trade for KMarte at $19.5M AAV.

another guy who will do nothing but spend time on the IL and collect a check. he has a long history of shoulder problems. there is a reason KC wants to dump him.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV has Ragans at 79.4 and Duran at 49.5. I'd love to see Duran + Crawford (22) for Ragans. That would take the heat off needing big bats, but I'd still like one big one (KMarte or Alonso?)

Let's pretend Anthony and Mayer return from injuries and are good enough to replace Bregman and Duran, All-Stars in the past two years... here's the revised 2025 WC Playoff batting order:

1. Ref, Platoon guy
2. Story - ya, baby
3. Anthony (for Bregman)
4. Romy, Platoon guy
5. Narvaez, 2nd half BA .187
6. Eaton, 4A
7. Mayer (for Duran)
8. Rafaela, 2nd half BA .218
9. Sogard, 4A

... sure, Casas and Abreu might be back and better than ever, and Yoshida may power up in the WBC... then they can start in place of next year's injured guys. Ready to win the World Series?

[harmony]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV has Ragans at 79.4 and Duran at 49.5. I'd love to see Duran + Crawford (22) for Ragans. That would take the heat off needing big bats, but I'd still like one big one (KMarte or Alonso?)

Ragans is signed for 2 years and then has a final arb year.

$4.5M '26, $7.5M '27, then arb.

Duran is $7.7M and Crawford might make $2.8M, so that trade would "save" $6M in 2026. Add that to $21M or so and we'd have enough to sign one big bat, or trade for KMarte at $19.5M AAV.

A Kansas City Royals blogger has set his sights high on any trade of Cole Ragans to the Red Sox:

https://www.royalsreview.com/hok-talk/91090/if-the-red-sox-want-cole-ragans#comments

😉

A Red Sox blogger offers his take:

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/onsi/boston-red-sox-news/red-sox-should-offer-this-4-player-trade-package-for-royals-cole-ragans-jackson3

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, harmony said:

FWIW Cole Ragans would give the Red Sox three of the top nine pitchers in Steamer's projected 2026 WAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=&team=0&players=0&lg=all&z=1764560800&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

I'd be thrilled at getting 3 years of this guy. (Ages 28-30.)

They won't take Duran & Crawford, no matter what BTV say. It might take Duran, Early and Sandlin.

[moonslav59]

FA & Possible Trade Target SP'ers by Projected fWAR:

1. Skubal 5.9

Crochet is 3rd at 5.6

5. deGrom 4,3

6. Ragans 4.3

7. Sale 4.1

Gray is 9th at 3.9

12. Valdez 3.7

15. Greene 3.6

18. Ryan 3.4

21. R Suarez 3.3

22. Lopez 3.2

30. Woodruff 3.0

32. Peralta & Gore 2.9

35. King 2.9

47. Kelly & Bubic 2.5

50. Lodolo, Castillo, Imai 2.4

55. Gallen, Bibee, Imanaga, M Keller 2.3

65. Wacha 2.2

70. Bassitt 2.1

Bello is 73rd at 2.0

 

 

 

[Duran Is The Man]

51 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd be thrilled at getting 3 years of this guy. (Ages 28-30.)

They won't take Duran & Crawford, no matter what BTV say. It might take Duran, Early and Sandlin.

yeah....trade them for a guy that can't stay healthy. two TJs under his belt and rotator cuff problems last year. he's a time bomb waiting to explode again.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

yeah....trade them for a guy that can't stay healthy. two TJs under his belt and rotator cuff problems last year. he's a time bomb waiting to explode again.

I didn't say I'd trade Early.

[Duran Is The Man]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I didn't say I'd trade Early.

why give them anything for a Sandoval/Paxton/Buehler/Hendricks/Gio clone?

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

why give them anything for a Sandoval/Paxton/Buehler/Hendricks/Gio clone?

35 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

why give them anything for a Sandoval/Paxton/Buehler/Hendricks/Gio clone?

Cause he's not a clone of them.

I'd give Duran & Crawford.