Red Sox (Early) vs Rays (Boyle): 9/21/25, 7:35pm

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

We missed a big chance to put some distance between us & CLE/HOU/DET.

We still hold the #2 WC slot, but by just 1 game over the three teams I listed above. One of those three (DET or CLE) will win the ALC, so it's basically down to 3 for the remaining 2 WC slots.

The Yanks are closer to the first base Jays (2GB) than we are to them (3GB.)

In the NL, AZ is one back from CIN & NYM, who are tied for the last WC berth.

Best case scenario that will never happen is that the Tigers sweep in Cleveland, thus clinching the Central, and then rest all their regulars in Fenway to intentionally let the Sox make the playoffs as a weak opponent.

Such strategy may backfire on Detroit, though, because Boston is starting half its bench every game already this month (well, at least platoon-worthy guys, besides Bregman and Story).

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Best case scenario that will never happen is that the Tigers sweep in Cleveland, thus clinching the Central, and then rest all their regulars in Fenway to intentionally let the Sox make the playoffs as a weak opponent.

Such strategy may backfire on Detroit, though, because Boston is starting half its bench every game already this month (well, at least platoon-worthy guys, besides Bregman and Story).

Best case scenario is the Red Sox just take care of business, and win, and then you don’t have to worry what anyone else does.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Old Red said:

Best case scenario is the Red Sox just take care of business, and win, and then you don’t have to worry what anyone else does.

Yup: go 2-1 in each series, and we are in. (DET or CLE have to lose at least 2 games, since they play a 3 game series against each other.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Best case scenario is the Red Sox just take care of business, and win, and then you don’t have to worry what anyone else does.

Just trying to be realistic, since they're playing the team with the best record in the league, in Toronto, where the Jays will be fighting to clinch the AL East, the top seed, and a first-round bye.

If the Sox can win one of the next three, it can set up a showdown with the Tigers at Fenway that may determine the final wild card, with loser go home.

If Game #162 is a must-win for both Detroit and Boston, what are the odds that either or both Hinch and Cora start their aces, Skubal and Crochet, on short rest? At least one front office will try to forbid it -- too much invested in the future, plus we need him in a best-of-three series... and at least one manager will shrug and say, We Gotta Get There First.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Just trying to be realistic, since they're playing the team with the best record in the league, in Toronto, where the Jays will be fighting to clinch the AL East, the top seed, and a first-round bye.

If the Sox can win one of the next three, it can set up a showdown with the Tigers at Fenway that may determine the final wild card, with loser go home.

If Game #162 is a must-win for both Detroit and Boston, what are the odds that either or both Hinch and Cora start their aces, Skubal and Crochet, on short rest? At least one front office will try to forbid it -- too much invested in the future, plus we need him in a best-of-three series... and at least one manager will shrug and say, We Gotta Get There First.

Crochet is considerably worse on short rest. His HR/9 goes from 1.05 to 1.5 and his ERA goes up to 3.58. 

If you can't have Crochet for Games 1 or 2 of the Wild Card, I'm not sure Game 162 matters especially if you aren't getting the best version of Crochet. May as well throw Giolito out there who is in line to go that day. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Crochet is considerably worse on short rest. His HR/9 goes from 1.05 to 1.5 and his ERA goes up to 3.58. 

If you can't have Crochet for Games 1 or 2 of the Wild Card, I'm not sure Game 162 matters especially if you aren't getting the best version of Crochet. May as well throw Giolito out there who is in line to go that day. 

All very logical. But we're talking about the 2025 Red Sox, who struggle to score, even when loading the bases with no outs. Over and over... which also makes it logical at this point to call a suicide squeeze in every game down the stretch.

And just so fans won't think these Left On Base LOBSTERS are a rarity in Beantown, read on: yes, the '25 Sox lead all of baseball in average LOBs per game (15.23 according to Fangraphs) -- but this is a tradition!

I can't make this stuff up: the all-time American League record for most LOBs in one game is 13 by Dustin Pedroia (15 innings, 9/15/2017)... who broke by one the previous AL mark, established by Trot Nixon (13 innings, 6/12/2003)... who tied the old AL record of 12 set by David Oritz (12 innings, 5/14/2009).

The all-time record for most LOBs by one team in a nine-inning game also took place at Fenway Park on September 21, 1956. That game was won by the Red Sox, 13-7, because they only left 5 on base. The Yankees left 20.

 

[vegasbob]

5 hours ago, Old Red said:

Best case scenario is the Red Sox just take care of business, and win, and then you don’t have to worry what anyone else does.

Best case; least likely.   I see the Sox going 2-3  pending the final Sunday game vs Detroit  which could be winner take all.   All hands on deck for that showdown, including Crochet, if needed.