The 2026 Red Sox Foundation & One Possible Plan

[drewski6]

duran only trails crochet in war, at present.  also, i like his intangibles

[moonslav59]

Recently, some things have changed to the 2026 roster outlook, namely premptively adding Early and Tolle to the 40, before their Rule 5 year came due. It would have helped the winter roster crunch by holding off until after opening day 2026, when we can move Houck (and others) to the 60 Day IL.

With so many players on the 60 Day IL, now, even when you subtract the FAs-to-be, we don't have a ton of wiggle room on the everyday side of the roster. I doubt we can afford to keep the Toro, Eaton and Ali Sanchez types through the winter, especially if we want to add a big bat or two and keep or replace N Lowe and Bregman.

Here is a look at who is currently slated to be on the 2026 Forty Man Roster:

Houck is out for 2026 but will be on the winter 40 until opening day.

23 Pitchers:

Crochet, Bello, Crawford, Sandoval, Dobbins, Fitts, Harrison, Criswell, Early, Tolle, Perales 

Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Guerrero, Moran, Murphy, Winckowski, Kelly, Hicks, I Campbell

18 Everyday Players:

Anthony, Story, Abreu, Duran, Narvaez, Rafaela, Romy, Mayer, K Campbell, Jh Garcia

Lowe, Casas, Wong, Yoshida, Grissom, Sogard, Eaton, Sanchez

That's 42 Players.

Maybe we add Sandlin or Mullins on Rule 5, but maybe nobody.

Not under strict team control: Bregman, Giolito (140 IP option) Refsnyder, Wilson, Matz, Hendriks, May

To me, the players most likely to be traded, DFA'd or non tendered:

Ali Sanchez (begin 2026 with just 2 catchers on the 40.)

Eaton

Grissom

Hicks (no options)

I Campbell

Sogard

Yoshida

Lowe or Casas

This could easily get us to 40 or less, as we will likely sign or re-sign someone.

 

 

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

If the Sox trade anyone, it’s most likely an OF.  The most likely candidates are Duran and Abreu.

On BTV, Duran has more trade value than anyone on the Sox except Anthony.  Couple that with his limited defense and struggles vs LHP, and I see him as the obvious candidate of the four.

Hes an exciting player.  But an outfield of Anthony-Rafaela-Abreu gives plenty of reasons to be excited on both sides of the ball.

I wouldn’t be broken up if the Sox dealt Abreu instead.  But they have to add more worthwhile pieces to that deal, at least according to BTV…

i do like that you are getting greedy, but duran will most likely be our top WAR position player 2 years in a row, plus he got that fire.  The team did NOT want to see him traded at the deadline.  I give him a "c"

[notin]

Not getting this obsession with Joe Ryan.

If I soend some talent to get Marte, I much prefer free agents Dylan Cease and Ranger Suarez over Ryan.  Suarez is probably cheaper, but maybe the Sox can get RHSP for once…

[drewski6]

team can be so awesome next year if brez has the ballz to seize it.

[drewski6]

Just now, notin said:

Not getting this obsession with Joe Ryan.

If I soend some talent to get Marte, I much prefer free agents Dylan Cease and Ranger Suarez over Ryan.  Suarez is probably cheaper, but maybe the Sox can get RHSP for once…

his value is his lower $$ so you can spend your $$ on retaining Gio, Breg and shopping for an additional star.

[drewski6]

but wed just extend him probz

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

If the Sox trade anyone, it’s most likely an OF.  The most likely candidates are Duran and Abreu.

On BTV, Duran has more trade value than anyone on the Sox except Anthony.  Couple that with his limited defense and struggles vs LHP, and I see him as the obvious candidate of the four.

Hes an exciting player.  But an outfield of Anthony-Rafaela-Abreu gives plenty of reasons to be excited on both sides of the ball.

I wouldn’t be broken up if the Sox dealt Abreu instead.  But they have to add more worthwhile pieces to that deal, at least according to BTV…

As soon as I convince myself trading Rafaela or Abreu makes more sense, I read a post like this and go back to thinking a Duran trade makes the most sense. However, if we do it, we absolutely need to bring Bregman back PLUS a big bat at 1B, 2B or DH or two big bats, if Bregman bolts.

I'm also very confident that Jh Garcia can be a very nice 4th OF'er, who is a good defender, too. Maybe Campbell can be, too, but to trade for Ryan and or Marte, one or both of these two RHBs will likely be part of a trade, along with Duran. (Or another trade.)

Duran's age worries me. He's not as good on D as Abreu, Rafaela, Anthony and Jh Garcia, but he's a damn good offensive player on a team with needs to improve their offense. Trading him mean we need to add even more to the O.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

i do like that you are getting greedy, but duran will most likely be our top WAR position player 2 years in a row, plus he got that fire.  The team did NOT want to see him traded at the deadline.  I give him a "c"

On BTV, if I substitute Abreu, I have to add in Kristian Campbell and either Payton Tolle or Connelly Early to make a fair trade that would tempt me (assuming I was the Dbacks CBO).

Starting to get pricey.  I’d rather deal Duran and keep my cheaper talent that enables me to buy a SP…

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Not getting this obsession with Joe Ryan.

If I soend some talent to get Marte, I much prefer free agents Dylan Cease and Ranger Suarez over Ryan.  Suarez is probably cheaper, but maybe the Sox can get RHSP for once…

Cease scares the hell out of me. If we pay for Ranger Suarez, I doubt JH ponies up for Bregman and another costly bat like Alonso, Suarez or Schwarber.

I'm obsessed with Ryan, because I think JH will not go past the second tax line in year two of the tax. That limits how much we can spend on Bregman and others.

We have a bunch of extensions kicking in, next year. Luckily, we don't have major arbs coming up. We can get Duran in 2026 for the $8M option, and Lowe might cost over $10M, if we decide to go to arb with him, but there are no other high cost arbs.

I'd be okay trading less for Keller, of just paying Gio to come back, but then we're dipping into the winter budget so deeply, adding another big FA or two becomes harder.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

On BTV, if I substitute Abreu, I have to add in Kristian Campbell and either Payton Tolle or Connelly Early to make a fair trade that would tempt me (assuming I was the Dbacks CBO).

Starting to get pricey.  I’d rather deal Duran and keep my cheaper talent that enables me to buy a SP…

I think Abreu is closer to Duran than what BTV indicates, He's better on D and has more control years.

I'm not sure what sort of combination it might take, but I could see trading Duran, Campbell, Mayer (or Arias), Clarke, Sandlin and maybe other mid level prospects for Ryan or Keller plus Marte. We'd need more than that to get two. (Could we add Rafaela and leave ourselves with just 3 OF'ers with obe being the PASSWORD? or Yoshida in lf.) Two big trades saves money needed to bring Breggie back or sign Alonso or E Suarez (no Mayer trade, as he'd be needed to take Breggie's place at 3B.)

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

i do like that you are getting greedy, but duran will most likely be our top WAR position player 2 years in a row, plus he got that fire.  The team did NOT want to see him traded at the deadline.  I give him a "c"

We started off 2025 thinking maybe we'd have 3 everyday players in the top 40: Devers, Bregman and Duran. Bregman got hurt. Devers got traded. Duran is #42 with a 3.5 fWAR

52. Bregman 3.2

60. Story 3.1

We did have more over 2.7 than maybe we expected:

70. Narvaez & Rafaela 2.8

76. Anthony & Abreu 2.7 (might have been higher if healthy & not a platoon)

If Anthony stays healthy, we could easily have 5 guys over 3.0 in 2026 (Anthony, Duran, Bregman, Story & Abreu) with Narvaez & Rafaela as hopefuls to top 3.0. 4 of these guys are OF'ers, so one will need to DH (Duran?)  play 2B (Rafaela) or be traded.

 

[moonslav59]

Teams with players at a 2.7 fWAR or better:

7 BOS

5 NYY (3 over 4.1, including Judge at 8.3- higher than our 1+2 combined)

5 TOR (4 over 3.8- our highest)

3 SEA (2 over 4.9)

3 DET

2 HOU, TEX & CLE

NL Teams

6 LAD (5 over 3.1)

5 CHC (3 over 4.1)

5 MIL (4 over 3.0)

4 SFG (5 w Devers BOS+SFG)

4 NYM (2 over 5.0)

4 AZ (2 over 5.8 and 3 over 4.2)

3 PHI & SDP

[Duran Is The Man]

7 hours ago, notin said:

Marte might be more available than you think.

https://sports.yahoo.com/article/diamondbacks-rumors-arizona-open-trading-140557610.html

The internet is littered with stories about his diva attitude, some of which might even be true.  Certainly that makes a good argument against acquiring him, but he is also a legitimate superstar who is the best overall player at a position at which the Sox have had a void for well over half a decade now.

BTV gives him a surplus value of $77mill.  A deal sending Duran ($60mill) and LHP Brandon Clarke ($16mill) certainly seems fair.  Another player (2b replacement David Hamilton? 1b Tristin Casas? Rule 5 eligible RHP Jedixson Paez) could make tjis deal more enticing.

Does Arizona need Duran? Maybe.  A couple years ago, their OF of the future appeared to be set with Carroll, Alek Thomas, and Jake McCarthy.  But it turns out, there is a really good chance Thomas and McCarthy both suck.

Still ridiculous?

 

 

we should offer Arizona the same pile of crap we got for Devers.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Duran Is The Man said:

we should offer Arizona the same pile of crap we got for Devers.

LOL. I'm not sure they view Marte as the hot potato Devers was, but he did cause some major issues.

How about Harrison, Hicks, Sandlin and Casas?

On a more serious note: Marte has a tax line at $19.4M for 5 more years. I wonder if somehow we could wiggle Yoshida into a package... something like Campbell, Yoshida, Sandlin and Clarke?

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, drewski6 said:

duran only trails crochet in war, at present.  also, i like his intangibles

What are the intangibles?

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

What are the intangibles?

Things you can’t touch…

[moonslav59]

Current Sox fWAR Leaders:

5.4 Crochet

3.4 Duran

3.2 Bregman (was on IL for a while)

3.1 Story (leader since June)

2.9 Rafaela

2.8 Narvaez

2.7 Anthony (IL)

2.7 Abreu (IL)

2.5 Chapman

2.1 Bello

2.0 Devers (Traded)

1.9 Giolito

1.8 Whitlock

1.5 Romy (290 PAs)

1.2 Wilson

1.1 Ref (184 PAs)

1.0 Dobbins (IL in 64 IP)

fWAR per PA

.0089 Anthony (IL)

.0073 Bregman

.0069 Narvaez

.0068 Abreu (IL)

.0060 Devers (as a DH- traded)

.0060 Refsnyder

.0055 Rafaela

.0053 Duran

.0052 Story

.0052 Romy

We are missing 3 of our top 5 on this list.

[moonslav59]

fWAR per IP

.045 Chapman

.029 Crochet

.028 Whitlock

.026 Wilson

.016 Dobbins (IL)

.014 Bello & Giolito

[notin]

19 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

we should offer Arizona the same pile of crap we got for Devers.

Because Marte can field…

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, notin said:

Because Marte can field…

Well, Devers never took questionable "days off" from work, twice in his career.

He kept playing and producing through all the drama.

He played while injured several times in his career, which brought down his career numbers.

That being said, Marte does not have the salary Devers has, and he can play defense better than Devers can even dream of playing.

We might get him for Harrison, Hicks (partial salary offset) J Bello plus Campbell and Clarke.

[notin]

On 9/12/2025 at 4:12 PM, moonslav59 said:

As soon as I convince myself trading Rafaela or Abreu makes more sense, I read a post like this and go back to thinking a Duran trade makes the most sense. However, if we do it, we absolutely need to bring Bregman back PLUS a big bat at 1B, 2B or DH or two big bats, if Bregman bolts.

I'm also very confident that Jh Garcia can be a very nice 4th OF'er, who is a good defender, too. Maybe Campbell can be, too, but to trade for Ryan and or Marte, one or both of these two RHBs will likely be part of a trade, along with Duran. (Or another trade.)

Duran's age worries me. He's not as good on D as Abreu, Rafaela, Anthony and Jh Garcia, but he's a damn good offensive player on a team with needs to improve their offense. Trading him mean we need to add even more to the O.

Zero chance to Sox add TWO big bats plus some Joe Ryan-esque pitcher.  If they soend that kind of money, it is a clear sign of Armageddon.  As in, Henry knows something and figures he can’t take it with him anyway.  And 1b?  Expect some combination of Casas, Lowe and/or Campbell.  Same names for DH, but either Yoshida in the mix. (And given the resurgences Story and Sale both had in their 4th years of their contracts, this might be the wrong time to unload Yoshida.)

If Bregman stays, I expect Mayer to take over 2b.  If Bregman moves on, I am hoping on Marte as a replacement.  Probably not going to get him, but I am hoping…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Zero chance to Sox add TWO big bats plus some Joe Ryan-esque pitcher.  If they soend that kind of money, it is a clear sign of Armageddon.  As in, Henry knows something and figures he can’t take it with him anyway.  And 1b?  Expect some combination of Casas, Lowe and/or Campbell.  Same names for DH, but either Yoshida in the mix. (And given the resurgences Story and Sale both had in their 4th years of their contracts, this might be the wrong time to unload Yoshida.)

If Bregman stays, I expect Mayer to take over 2b.  If Bregman moves on, I am hoping on Marte as a replacement.  Probably not going to get him, but I am hoping…

I fully expect us to not add a 1Bman. I'm not even sure we bring Lowe back. We may run with just Casas, Campbell & Romy. 

I think we bring Bregman back or make a deal for someone like Marte. If we trade for Marte, we may sign a SP'er. If we sign Bregman, I think we trade for Joe Ryan. Not someone like Joe Ryan, but Joe himself.

I think they will view the return of Anthony, Mayer and all those SP'ers will be enough- along with subbing Ryan for Buehler.

[notin]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I fully expect us to not add a 1Bman. I'm not even sure we bring Lowe back. We may run with just Casas, Campbell & Romy. 

I think we bring Bregman back or make a deal for someone like Marte. If we trade for Marte, we may sign a SP'er. If we sign Bregman, I think we trade for Joe Ryan. Not someone like Joe Ryan, but Joe himself.

I think they will view the return of Anthony, Mayer and all those SP'ers will be enough- along with subbing Ryan for Buehler.

Sort of where I think.

I do think they will deal an OF to cover another position.  Depth is good, but it’s kind of silly to be 4 deep in the OF while no one can, for example, play 2b.

Returning pitchers on the 40 man, barring trades, include Crochet, Bello, Houck, Sandoval, Tolle, Dobbins, Early, Harrison, Crawford, Perales and (unless they follow my suggestion and move him to the pen) Fitts.   Thats 11 pitchers on the 40 man just as starters, and still not counting Giolito and anyone added to protect them from Rule 5 (Sandlin? Paez? Mullins?)

Houck is out next year and Dobbins probably until June/July and Perales needs time.  But still, with up to 15 SPs on the 40 man roster in December, either they trade some controllable starting pitching or theyre already all set.   I could see including young pitching with Abreu for Marte and having some left for ______ in the rotation.  Fan choice there is Harrison but Early is certainly an option.  

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Sort of where I think.

I do think they will deal an OF to cover another position.  Depth is good, but it’s kind of silly to be 4 deep in the OF while no one can, for example, play 2b.

Returning pitchers on the 40 man, barring trades, include Crochet, Bello, Houck, Sandoval, Tolle, Dobbins, Early, Harrison, Crawford, Perales and (unless they follow my suggestion and move him to the pen) Fitts.   Thats 11 pitchers on the 40 man just as starters, and still not counting Giolito and anyone added to protect them from Rule 5 (Sandlin? Paez? Mullins?)

Houck is out next year and Dobbins probably until June/July and Perales needs time.  But still, with up to 15 SPs on the 40 man roster in December, either they trade some controllable starting pitching or theyre already all set.   I could see including young pitching with Abreu for Marte and having some left for ______ in the rotation.  Fan choice there is Harrison but Early is certainly an option.  

We started this year with 11-12 SP'ers on the 40, and hardly any worked from the pen- due to injuries and the choice not to use them from the MLB pen. (We also tried to alleviate the problem by trading one for prospects: Priester.)

I hope they don't view Rafaela as a 2B option. It's one thing having a GG type CF'er hit .675-.725, but it's another having a so-so defensive 2B (at best) hit .690.

I think it is a near lock we trade an OF'er for a pitcher, 2Bman or 1Bman (3B, if Bregman bolts.) We are not going to fill 3-4 slots (well enough) via free agency. JH will not spend that much, after all these extensions are kicking in, next season.

LF: Duran/Anthony, Garcia (Yoshida/Refsnyder?)

CF: Rafaela/Duran/Anthony (Garcia)

RF: Anthony/Abreu (Garcia/Refsnyder?)

If you think Garcia is legit, we have 5 OF'ers, not counting Yoshida in LF or Refsnyder at COF.

Since we seem to hate signing the best SP'ers on the market for more than 2 years, I think the big trade is for a pitcher: Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez (Healthy?) Luis Castillo, Mitch Keller or _____.

We spend the money on Bregman or another big bat at ...

3B/1B: Suarez(not good on D) Fallback is Mayer

1B: Alonso (Fallbacks: Bellinger, Hoskins, Naylor or just go with Casas/Lowe)

2B: Torres (not a big bat) or Arraez (declining but can play 1B, too.)

SS: Bichette (move Story to 3B or 2B?)

DH: Schwarber, Ozuna

I do not see us getting serious with Cease, Gallen, King, Flaherty, R Suarez, Sale. Valdez or Bassitt might be the only guys, because age might keep the length of the deal shorter than others, but I doubt we go there, either. (How about Zach Eflin, Jordan Montgomery or just bring Gio back?) Who is the SP'er coming back from injury, we might sign to a 2 year deal?

[notin]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

We started this year with 11-12 SP'ers on the 40, and hardly any worked from the pen- due to injuries and the choice not to use them from the MLB pen. (We also tried to alleviate the problem by trading one for prospects: Priester.)

I hope they don't view Rafaela as a 2B option. It's one thing having a GG type CF'er hit .675-.725, but it's another having a so-so defensive 2B (at best) hit .690.

I think it is a near lock we trade an OF'er for a pitcher, 2Bman or 1Bman (3B, if Bregman bolts.) We are not going to fill 3-4 slots (well enough) via free agency. JH will not spend that much, after all these extensions are kicking in, next season.

LF: Duran/Anthony, Garcia (Yoshida/Refsnyder?)

CF: Rafaela/Duran/Anthony (Garcia)

RF: Anthony/Abreu (Garcia/Refsnyder?)

If you think Garcia is legit, we have 5 OF'ers, not counting Yoshida in LF or Refsnyder at COF.

Since we seem to hate signing the best SP'ers on the market for more than 2 years, I think the big trade is for a pitcher: Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez (Healthy?) Luis Castillo, Mitch Keller or _____.

We spend the money on Bregman or another big bat at ...

3B/1B: Suarez(not good on D) Fallback is Mayer

1B: Alonso (Fallbacks: Bellinger, Hoskins, Naylor or just go with Casas/Lowe)

2B: Torres (not a big bat) or Arraez (declining but can play 1B, too.)

SS: Bichette (move Story to 3B or 2B?)

DH: Schwarber, Ozuna

I do not see us getting serious with Cease, Gallen, King, Flaherty, R Suarez, Sale. Valdez or Bassitt might be the only guys, because age might keep the length of the deal shorter than others, but I doubt we go there, either. (How about Zach Eflin, Jordan Montgomery or just bring Gio back?) Who is the SP'er coming back from injury, we might sign to a 2 year deal?

Mayer might get injured a lot, but he’s likely to be counted upon if the Sox like him.  He won’t be depth.

Story got injured a lot, too, and the Sox never went out and replaced him proactively.  Or even actively, like that one year hr got injured in December and we suffered through Kike at SS

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Mayer might get injured a lot, but he’s likely to be counted upon if the Sox like him.  He won’t be depth.

Story got injured a lot, too, and the Sox never went out and replaced him proactively.  Or even actively, like that one year hr got injured in December and we suffered through Kike at SS

I also think the Sox will count on Mayer to have a FT role, next year:

3B, if Bregman bolts.

2B, if Bregman stays.

SS, if they think it's time to move Story to 2B or 3B.

I hope we have someone better as his back-up. We also can't count on Story being Cal Jr., either.

My guess is their Plan A is Bregman at 3B, Story at SS, Mayer at 2B and Casas (Lowe?) at 1B. Romy offers the depth at 1B & 2B and extended depth on the left side defense, but we need to add a depth piece there, I think Romy's right side depth means we trade DHam and or Grissom ro create a roster slot.

[notin]

Grissom will get DFAd this off-season.  His chances of being on the Sox roster next March are only slightly greater than mine…

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, notin said:

Grissom will get DFAd this off-season.  His chances of being on the Sox roster next March are only slightly greater than mine…

I was surprised he wasn't traded over this season.

Maybe nobody wanted him (likely): maybe Brez set a price too high for anyone who was interested (less likely.)

I think we'd keep DHam over Grissom due to his PR value and his better 2B defense. Both could easily be gone by opening day, with DHam the more likely trade candidate and Grissom the DFA'd or non tendered guy. 

Hey, what's the difference between non tendered and DFA'd?

[drewski6]

On 9/13/2025 at 7:20 AM, mvp 78 said:

What are the intangibles?

Fire, passion, energy, weight room commitment, sense of urgency, emotion, rally-leader, crazy eyes, puts fear in other team.

I wouldnt pitch inside to him, I lose control of one and he might bite my ear off