The 2026 Red Sox Foundation & One Possible Plan

[notin]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Weak FA class. Had a strong season regardless of the injury/slowdown at the end. I think he was probably going to opt out no matter what. 

He couldn’t get the deal he wanted last year.  Now Hes a year older coming off a weaker season.

And this free agent class might not be so weak.  Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber and Bo Bichette make 3 pretty big headliners just on the offensive side.  Throw in Dylan Cease and Framber Valdez and there are some good names available.

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

He couldn’t get the deal he wanted last year.  Now Hes a year older coming off a weaker season.

And this free agent class might not be so weak.  Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber and Bo Bichette make 3 pretty big headliners just on the offensive side.  Throw in Dylan Cease and Framber Valdez and there are some good names available.

None of the guys you listed play Breggie's position. Schwarber is a DH only. Bichette is probably behind Bregman in value TBH. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

He couldn’t get the deal he wanted last year.  Now Hes a year older coming off a weaker season.

OPS+ 128

2024: 116

2023-2024: 119

2022-2024: 122 (same with '20 or '21-'24)

[notin]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

None of the guys you listed play Breggie's position. Schwarber is a DH only. Bichette is probably behind Bregman in value TBH. 

Many metrics suggest Bichette should play Bregman’s position. 

Who were the third baseman on last years market that he competed with?  

And outside of Boston and Detroit, what is this years market for a 3b? Houston likely isnt since they traded Kyle Tucker for two third basemen last offseason.  And Detroit’s best offer was rejected. Are they going to raise it with Bregman being a year older and slumping for 4 months?

His agent will tell him one more year.  I think he opts in…
 

 

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

OPS+ 128

2024: 116

2023-2024: 119

2022-2024: 122 (same with '20 or '21-'24)

3.5 bWAR and a .730 OPS for the last 4 months.  I know it’s influenced by injury, but I also believe that’s not exactly a selling point…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

3.5 bWAR and a .730 OPS for the last 4 months.  I know it’s influenced by injury, but I also believe that’s not exactly a selling point…

I agree he's not worth more this winter than last, but not because of a "weaker year."

[notin]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree he's not worth more this winter than last, but not because of a "weaker year."

I think a weaker year, a year older, and final number strongly influenced by injury in the second half.  It’s not a great combo.

It’s beneficial to Boston if he opts out.  Theyre on the short list of teams that need a 3b and can meet his asking price, and they can get him back at a lower AAV.  I just don’t think he is going to do them that favor…

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

3.5 bWAR and a .730 OPS for the last 4 months.  I know it’s influenced by injury, but I also believe that’s not exactly a selling point…

Bregman had a very long cold streak in 2024, too. He had also declined on offense for 2 straight years.

In 2024, he hit .516 in 34 games as part of a .579 stretch of 46 games and .698 in 79 games, before warming up a little at the end on the season.

In 2023, he started the season off hitting .718 over 92 games.

I think GMs knew he had these tendencies before 2025.

In a way, he showed a better hit tool and shorter cold stretch in 2025 that '23 and '24.

(In 2022, he hit .728 over a 62 game stretch.)

[notin]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Bregman had a very long cold streak in 2024, too. He had also declined on offense for 2 straight years.

In 2024, he hit .516 in 34 games as part of a .579 stretch of 46 games and .698 in 79 games, before warming up a little at the end on the season.

In 2023, he started the season off hitting .718 over 92 games.

I think GMs knew he had these tendencies before 2025.

In a way, he showed a better hit tool and shorter cold stretch in 2025 that '23 and '24.

(In 2022, he hit .728 over a 62 game stretch.)

You’re only solidifying my viewpoint…

[moonslav59]

I think we will thank Bregman for helping out our young players, setting an example on what leadership looks like, agreeing to differ much of his 2025 pay and then we say good bye.

My guess is the top Sox guys see Mayer as our 3Bman going forward. The main issue with that is no real plan B, if and when he gets hurt. Story? Then who plays SS? 

I'm not sure I'll be very happy, if we go into 2026 with our infield plan as such:

1B: Casas (Romy)

2B: Romy (Mayer/DHam)

SS: Story (Mayer/Romy)

3B Mayer (Story/Eaton)

But, I suppose, if we bolster the rotation and pen and add a big bat at DH (Schwarber) or OF (Tucker) I might get over it. Actually, if we get Schwarber, I'd DH Casas.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

You’re only solidifying my viewpoint…

I've agreed with your point. I just don't think 2025 was "weaker" than 2023 or 2024.

He's ended the season rather poorly, but not with any longer or weaker stretch than previous seasons, so explain why it's "weaker."

That's the only point I'm contesting- not the broader point.

[notin]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think we will thank Bregman for helping out our young players, setting an example on what leadership looks like, agreeing to differ much of his 2025 pay and then we say good bye.

My guess is the top Sox guys see Mayer as our 3Bman going forward. The main issue with that is no real plan B, if and when he gets hurt. Story? Then who plays SS? 

I'm not sure I'll be very happy, if we go into 2026 with our infield plan as such:

1B: Casas (Romy)

2B: Romy (Mayer/DHam)

SS: Story (Mayer/Romy)

3B Mayer (Story/Eaton)

But, I suppose, if we bolster the rotation and pen and add a big bat at DH (Schwarber) or OF (Tucker) I might get over it. Actually, if we get Schwarber, I'd DH Casas.

If the INF next year is 

1b: Lowe

2b: Ketel Marte

3b: Mayer

SS: Story

UIF: Romy

I’m ok with it..

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

If the INF next year is 

1b: Lowe

2b: Ketel Marte

3b: Mayer

SS: Story

UIF: Romy

I’m ok with it..

 

Casas or Yoshida at DH?

Which OF'er gets traded?

Here is my list of who they will trade by probability:

40% Duran

35% Abreu

15% Rafaela

5% Jh Garcia

5% nobody

If Ref returns, the odds go up for Rafaela and Jh Garcia being traded by 2.5% each. with nobody going to 0%.

[mvp 78]

He gone.

[notin]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Casas or Yoshida at DH?

Which OF'er gets traded?

Here is my list of who they will trade by probability:

40% Duran

35% Abreu

15% Rafaela

5% Jh Garcia

5% nobody

If Ref returns, the odds go up for Rafaela and Jh Garcia being traded by 2.5% each. with nobody going to 0%.

Casas or Yoshida at DH.  Yoshida does have options, which  makes for potential depth. (Reality check - Casas will be at 1b with Lowe non-tendered.  Makes me sad.)

Per BTV, Duran straight up for Marte works.  For Abreu, I had to add K Campbell  and Paez.  I go Duran here as I am not so quick to give up on Campbell.

Other BTV-acceptable trade I like (but other teams might not) include Jared Hicks to Atlanta for C Sean Murphy (actually not acceptable but favors Atlanta) and OF Jhostnyxon Garcia to Cleveland for RHRP Emmanuel Clase. Build that bullpen!

[notin]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He gone.

Who? Ken Harrelson?

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, notin said:

Casas or Yoshida at DH.  Yoshida does have options, which  makes for potential depth. (Reality check - Casas will be at 1b with Lowe non-tendered.  Makes me sad.)

Per BTV, Duran straight up for Marte works.  For Abreu, I had to add K Campbell  and Paez.  I go Duran here as I am not so quick to give up on Campbell.

Other BTV-acceptable trade I like (but other teams might not) include Jared Hicks to Atlanta for C Sean Murphy (actually not acceptable but favors Atlanta) and OF Jhostnyxon Garcia to Cleveland for RHRP Emmanuel Clase. Build that bullpen!

Sadly, I see casas as our 1Bman for 2026, too. Lowe will cost too much to keep, and I'm not sure they trust Romy/Campbell enough to take over 1B.

It makes a lot of sense to have Casas be our DH until his control years run out. I have total confidence he can be an .800+ hitter and maybe even .850+. Being the DH would also lessen the chance of further injuries, and yes, I know his last injury was from just swinging the bat. The problem with that choice is what to do with Yoshida. Parking an $18M DH in AAA makes little sense. Trading Yoshida seems impossible, but maybe if he becomes a WS MVP, someone will want him.

Yoshida, Mullins and cash for Murphy would be great.

Duran for Marte would solve a lot of issues and free up the OF logjam.

I'm not sure I trade Jh Garcia, if we also trade Duran. I guess is Ref returns for one more year, okay.

I'm ready to let Abreu try FT play.  I'm okay with Romy going FT, but I hesitate to anoint him my FT 2Bman, 1Bman or 150 game 1B/2B combined. I'd love to hand 150 games to Mayer, but we need a plan B, so how do we do that?

[mvp 78]

On 9/27/2025 at 5:07 PM, moonslav59 said:

Sadly, I see casas as our 1Bman for 2026, too.

Casas will struggle to get out of AAA. 

[notin]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Casas will struggle to get out of AAA. 

Casas is arb-eligible.  If he can’t make MLB, he should be non-tendered, correct?

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Casas will struggle to get out of AAA. 

Bad for Casas he didn’t take that extension the Red Sox offered him, and good for the Red Sox as it stands now.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Casas is arb-eligible.  If he can’t make MLB, he should be non-tendered, correct?

The issue is going to be coming back from that injury. It's going to take a lot longer than a lot of you think. 

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The issue is going to be coming back from that injury. It's going to take a lot longer than a lot of you think. 

I hope the injury won’t take any of his foot speed away from him, or his nimbleness at 1B.

[moonslav59]

It may take a while for Casas to return, but I still think he'll be an .820+++ batter going forward.

His 1B defense will likely never be even close to acceptable, so we should strive to set up the future with him at DH.

That means no OF rotation through the DH slot, so one should be traded.

That means we should still look for a way to trade the now red hot Yoshida, but if we can't/don't then Casas can play 1B until it's his time.

I do think we need a plan B, and Lowe will be too expensive. Romy is an option as plan B, but right now he might be our FT 2Bman.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It may take a while for Casas to return, but I still think he'll be an .820+++ batter going forward.

His 1B defense will likely never be even close to acceptable, so we should strive to set up the future with him at DH.

That means no OF rotation through the DH slot, so one should be traded.

That means we should still look for a way to trade the now red hot Yoshida, but if we can't/don't then Casas can play 1B until it's his time.

I do think we need a plan B, and Lowe will be too expensive. Romy is an option as plan B, but right now he might be our FT 2Bman.

Casas like Mayer has lost a lot of developmental time the last few years, because of injuries, and has got to prove himself again before the Red Sox can count on him going forward.

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I hope the injury won’t take any of his foot speed away from him, or his nimbleness at 1B.

He was 3rd percentile sprint speed this year and 1st percentile last season. Not sure the mathematics involved in figuring out what his sprint speed will be post surgery. I may have to go to Jacksonville for a state cross country meet next week and the zoo up there has two camels. I can ask them to run the math for me. 🐪

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It may take a while for Casas to return, but I still think he'll be an .820+++ batter going forward.

Makes sense as he's had only one season in MLB above that number. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Casas like Mayer has lost a lot of developmental time the last few years, because of injuries, and has got to prove himself again before the Red Sox can count on him going forward.

Mayer has never proven himself at the big league level. Casas went 840 PAs at .820.

Yes, he has to prove he is over an injury and maybe a little bit that his first 840 PAs were not a fluke, but I see a big difference between Casas and Mayer. Casas was beyond the "development" stage of his career. He did not miss nearly as much time in the minors as Mayer. He had over 1200 PAs in the minors at .860. He'll be 26 in January.

If he's healthy, he's a starter. He also hits lefties well enough to be a FT'er, unlike Lowe.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Makes sense as he's had only one season in MLB above that number. 

His career OPS before 2025 was .830. Does that make sense?

I actually low-balled him.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

His career OPS before 2025 was .830. Does that make sense?

I actually low-balled him.

Only one season above 820. Does that make sense? 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The issue is going to be coming back from that injury. It's going to take a lot longer than a lot of you think. 

I think it will take long enough that he will get injured again before he heals.  But will the Sox offer arbitration to Lowe based on my theories?