The 2026 Red Sox Foundation & One Possible Plan

[Nick]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's not enough for Ryan TBH.

I agree....just wanted to throw in another experienced major league pitcher. Tolle would be my only untouchable pitcher right now. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, Nick said:

I agree....just wanted to throw in another experienced major league pitcher. Tolle would be my only untouchable pitcher right now. 

A month ago, nearing the deadline, a few Boston talking heads were in favor of trading Tolle for Ryan.

Their reasoning was that if Tolle's ceiling is a #2 starter (because Boston hasn't developed a #1 for decades), then why not give him up for a guy like Ryan, who is already a proven #2.

But this winter that probably makes no sense, since Tolle is a step away from the '26 rotation, and may even become a #2 himself by next season for MLB minimum wage and six years younger than Ryan. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

A month ago, nearing the deadline, a few Boston talking heads were in favor of trading Tolle for Ryan.

Their reasoning was that if Tolle's ceiling is a #2 starter (because Boston hasn't developed a #1 for decades), then why not give him up for a guy like Ryan, who is already a proven #2.

But this winter that probably makes no sense, since Tolle is a step away from the '26 rotation, and may even become a #2 himself by next season for MLB minimum wage and six years younger than Ryan. 

Never listen to Boston talking heads. They get paid for bad takes and to upset people. 

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Never listen to Boston talking heads. They get paid for bad takes and to upset people. 

Proven by the quite absurd takes after Anthony penned his extension. 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Nick said:

I agree....just wanted to throw in another experienced major league pitcher. Tolle would be my only untouchable pitcher right now. 

Duran, Witherspoon and Early? 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

Proven by the quite absurd takes after Anthony penned his extension. 

Yup.

"But he hasn't even done anything yet." 

[moonslav59]

With Lowe having one arb year left ($10-12M?) I think we will go another winter without touching the 1B depth chart.

Second base will probably follow the same plan. We will roll the dice on Mayer, or hope a DHam-Romy platoon will be enough. (I doubt KC will get another shot at 2B, but I've been wrong enough to never say never.)

I think we have 3 MAJOR AREAS of NEED:

1. Bregman simply has to be brought back. I think he likes Boston, but that does not mean he takes a discount. Just get a deal done. No more than 4 years is ideal.

2. Chapman needs to return or be replaced by a top closer. The fact that we've never won a ring without a top closer is telling. I think we offer him a 1 year deal with a second year option and $2-3M buyout that essentially adds $2-3M to his one year deal, if he retires.

3. A solid #2 SP'er. We need to replace Buehler with a #2 type, not another #4/5 type with hopes and dreams of doing better. Even if Gio returns, we need a SP'ers who is close to ace material. (Joe Ryan would be a great target. Keller might be who we get, and while nobody confuses him with an ace, he's pretty damn good.) I think Minnesota would accept Abreu, Clarke, Early & Romero for Ryan. Maybe I'm naive and will insist on Tolle or Arias and Valera, but I think they'd take close to my suggested offer. 

Secondary Needs:

Pen help.

Rightside infield help.

Maybe catcher depth.

Dump Yoshida. Assume Refsnyder retires.

We should not count too much on players returning from season-ending injuries, but the sheer number of them makes me think 1 or 2 could provided a huge boost to an already solid core of players, assuming we have Bregman, Chapman & Ryan in the fold.

1. Duran/Campbell DH

2. Anthony RF

3. Story SS

4. Bregman 3B

5. Lowe/Romy 1B

6. Garcia LF

7. Mayer 2B

8. Narvaez C

9. Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Romy, Campbell, Casas or DHam

SP: Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Giolito,

Sandoval/Dobbins/Crawford/Harrison/Fitts/Tolle/Perales/Early/Uberstine

RP: Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, __FA__, Weissert, Bernardino, Criswell,

Hicks/Winck/Moran/Kelly/Guerrero/Mullins/Sandlin/Song

 

[notin]

On 8/24/2025 at 1:04 PM, Hitch said:

I really don't think Campbell has much trade value right now. If we could trade him for pitching I'd do it in a heartbeat. Not happening. 

So a 23yo who has absolutely raked in at every level and was the AL Rookie of the Month his first month in the league, and only a year ago won Eastern League MVP,  Minor  League Player of the Year, Breakout Prospect of the Year,  and a few other award.  But then he struggled in MLB for a few weeks so he’s worthless now?  I mean, you’re right he is TWENTY THREE…

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, notin said:

So a 23yo who has absolutely raked in at every level and was the AL Rookie of the Month his first month in the league, and only a year ago won Eastern League MVP,  Minor  League Player of the Year, Breakout Prospect of the Year,  and a few other award.  But then he struggled in MLB for a few weeks so he’s worthless now?  I mean, you’re right he is TWENTY THREE…

Players rarely lose a lot of value over a couple months of play, especially the first few weeks of a fast-tracked player starting in the bigs.

I'm not saying I want to trade KC, but his lack of a clear position other than DH or in an already double-stacked OF makes me wonder where he fits. I guess 1B could be an option, but not trying him there, this summer is kinda telling.

[moonslav59]

I'm sure MN wants a really good young pitcher from our pitcher-heavy farm, but I'd avoid giving up Tolle.

Would they take

Duran

Mayer or Campbell

Clarke or Early

Sandlin or Mullins

(Maybe add Castro, Bleis or Cespedes- Romero, if they insisted)

for

Joe Ryan and Kody Clemens?

We'd have our #2 SP'er and longtime 2Bman. Bring back Bregman & Chapman and call it a winter.

[notin]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Players rarely lose a lot of value over a couple months of play, especially the first few weeks of a fast-tracked player starting in the bigs.

I'm not saying I want to trade KC, but his lack of a clear position other than DH or in an already double-stacked OF makes me wonder where he fits. I guess 1B could be an option, but not trying him there, this summer is kinda telling.

Whether or not he fits in Boston has no bearing on his trade value, just on his availability.  It also helps that he is signed for utility infielder money for the next 8 years.

Hes certainly tradable, but it would be better for Boston to play him…

[notin]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm sure MN wants a really good young pitcher from our pitcher-heavy farm, but I'd avoid giving up Tolle.

Would they take

Duran

Mayer or Campbell

Clarke or Early

Sandlin or Mullins

(Maybe add Castro, Bleis or Cespedes- Romero, if they insisted)

for

Joe Ryan and Kody Clemens?

We'd have our #2 SP'er and longtime 2Bman. Bring back Bregman & Chapman and call it a winter.

Minnesota (where I am right now) would be stupid to turn down that offer.  The only reason they might be hesitant is they prefer players with more control than Duran, but that’s a weak reason, since he’s easily movable himself.

BTV gives that package between $120-125 mill in surplus value, which is just shy of the surplus value of Paul Skenes ($133mill).  While I doubt Pitt bites (or trades Skenes at all), it’s still a solid return for anyone…

 

[harmony]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm sure MN wants a really good young pitcher from our pitcher-heavy farm, but I'd avoid giving up Tolle.

Would they take

Duran

Mayer or Campbell

Clarke or Early

Sandlin or Mullins

(Maybe add Castro, Bleis or Cespedes- Romero, if they insisted)

for

Joe Ryan and Kody Clemens?

We'd have our #2 SP'er and longtime 2Bman. Bring back Bregman & Chapman and call it a winter.

FWIW 29-year-old Kody Clemens has a career OPS+ of 79 and 0.5 bWAR in 237 career games, including an OPS+ of 93 and 0.5 bWAR in 91 games this season:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemeko01.shtml

Clemens is likely to be Super Two arbitration eligible this offseason.

[Hitch]

6 hours ago, notin said:

So a 23yo who has absolutely raked in at every level and was the AL Rookie of the Month his first month in the league, and only a year ago won Eastern League MVP,  Minor  League Player of the Year, Breakout Prospect of the Year,  and a few other award.  But then he struggled in MLB for a few weeks so he’s worthless now?  I mean, you’re right he is TWENTY THREE…

Lets not get hysterical to try and shoehorn in a point. I didn't say he was worthless, I said I don't think he has much value right now. We'd be trading low while he's signed to a long term contract. He has not been able to show he can play defence at ANY position yet. He was clearly rushed through the minors without any thought to where he would play long term. Lou Merloni was on this early, asking where he could play defensively last season as he didn't see it.  

And while I generally enjoy your input and posts, I think I'll side with Chris Hatfield and Ian Cundall from Sox Prospects.com on him, when they were saying as little as 10 days ago that the underlying numbers are not even supporting his improved batting average in AAA. Hopefully that will change and with luck, he will be on our team, or at least brought us something back very tasty, but he's far from a lock to be either right now.

To think he's ahead of Mayer is flat out absurd, even with Mayer's sketchy injury history. 

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, notin said:

Whether or not he fits in Boston has no bearing on his trade value, just on his availability.  It also helps that he is signed for utility infielder money for the next 8 years.

Hes certainly tradable, but it would be better for Boston to play him…

I agree.

The lack of a clear position is an issue with the team trading for him, too.

His value to us and other teams has not not fallen all that much, since March.

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, notin said:

Minnesota (where I am right now) would be stupid to turn down that offer.  The only reason they might be hesitant is they prefer players with more control than Duran, but that’s a weak reason, since he’s easily movable himself.

BTV gives that package between $120-125 mill in surplus value, which is just shy of the surplus value of Paul Skenes ($133mill).  While I doubt Pitt bites (or trades Skenes at all), it’s still a solid return for anyone…

 

We could make it Duran or Abreu.

Maybe I valued Kody Clemens, too highly, based on 1 season and harmony's comments.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I can't see trading Duran AND Mayer AND Clarke AND Sandlin for Joe Ryan, who just got tuned like a piano by the Blue Jays, the team the Sox are chasing in the AL East.

Ryan pitches in the weak-hitting AL Central, home of the three worst offenses in the league, and now has an ERA of 3.22 -- compared to the 3.07 of Bello, a guy he'd presumably bump to the middle of Boston's rotation (who also owns the mighty goon squad in the Bronx).

I'd still love to have Ryan, but not for two starting position players and two pitchers who could be parts of big league rotations in the next year.

We covet Ryan because of the fantasy that he'll be the missing link to another title, but no one even knows how he'll perform yet in the big market spotlights of the postseason.

 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I can't see trading Duran AND Mayer AND Clarke AND Sandlin for Joe Ryan, who just got tuned like a piano by the Blue Jays, the team the Sox are chasing in the AL East.

Ryan pitches in the weak-hitting AL Central, home of the three worst offenses in the league, and now has an ERA of 3.22 -- compared to the 3.07 of Bello, a guy he'd presumably bump to the middle of Boston's rotation (who also owns the mighty goon squad in the Bronx).

I'd still love to have Ryan, but not for two starting position players and two pitchers who could be parts of big league rotations in the next year.

We covet Ryan because of the fantasy that he'll be the missing link to another title, but no one even knows how he'll perform yet in the big market spotlights of the postseason.

 

Nobody knows how Crochet will perform in the big market spotlights of the postseason. Nobody knows how any of the current BoSox will perform. It's a completely untested group. 

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I can't see trading Duran AND Mayer AND Clarke AND Sandlin for Joe Ryan, who just got tuned like a piano by the Blue Jays, the team the Sox are chasing in the AL East.

Ryan pitches in the weak-hitting AL Central, home of the three worst offenses in the league, and now has an ERA of 3.22 -- compared to the 3.07 of Bello, a guy he'd presumably bump to the middle of Boston's rotation (who also owns the mighty goon squad in the Bronx).

I'd still love to have Ryan, but not for two starting position players and two pitchers who could be parts of big league rotations in the next year.

We covet Ryan because of the fantasy that he'll be the missing link to another title, but no one even knows how he'll perform yet in the big market spotlights of the postseason.

 

It wasn't just Ryan. I got overly giddy on Kody Clemens, thinking he was a lock at solving our 2B issue, while Mayer will be one big question mark, until he plays a full season or two.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I can't see trading Duran AND Mayer AND Clarke AND Sandlin for Joe Ryan, who just got tuned like a piano by the Blue Jays, the team the Sox are chasing in the AL East.

 

Would you trade Duran or Abreu, plus Campbell, Clarke and Sandlin for Ryan and Clemens?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Would you trade Duran or Abreu, plus Campbell, Clarke and Sandlin for Ryan and Clemens?

Kody has some assets and versatility, like a lot of players already on the 40. But he isn't a full-time second base solution. 

But I probably do this deal if you take out Clarke, who early in the Spring was looking like the Sox' best starting pitching prospect in decades (before Tolle grew his mustache).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Nobody knows how Crochet will perform in the big market spotlights of the postseason. Nobody knows how any of the current BoSox will perform. It's a completely untested group. 

We know Bregman and Chapman can perform in the postseason.

Buehler and May also have rings, but when they throw them on their dressers at night the jewelry sometimes winds up under the bed.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

10 hours ago, harmony said:

FWIW 29-year-old Kody Clemens has a career OPS+ of 79 and 0.5 bWAR in 237 career games, including an OPS+ of 93 and 0.5 bWAR in 91 games this season:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemeko01.shtml

Clemens is likely to be Super Two arbitration eligible this offseason.

For what it's worth his father's an A-hole.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

It wasn't just Ryan. I got overly giddy on Kody Clemens, thinking he was a lock at solving our 2B issue, while Mayer will be one big question mark, until he plays a full season or two.

Kody is AAAA material…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Would you trade Duran or Abreu, plus Campbell, Clarke and Sandlin for Ryan and Clemens?

Hell no.  I think you might be overvaluing Ryan…

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Hell no.  I think you might be overvaluing Ryan…

The broke Twins also don't want to be locked into the MLB salaries of Duran and Campbell. 

[notin]

6 hours ago, Hitch said:

Lets not get hysterical to try and shoehorn in a point. I didn't say he was worthless, I said I don't think he has much value right now. We'd be trading low while he's signed to a long term contract. He has not been able to show he can play defence at ANY position yet. He was clearly rushed through the minors without any thought to where he would play long term. Lou Merloni was on this early, asking where he could play defensively last season as he didn't see it.  

And while I generally enjoy your input and posts, I think I'll side with Chris Hatfield and Ian Cundall from Sox Prospects.com on him, when they were saying as little as 10 days ago that the underlying numbers are not even supporting his improved batting average in AAA. Hopefully that will change and with luck, he will be on our team, or at least brought us something back very tasty, but he's far from a lock to be either right now.

To think he's ahead of Mayer is flat out absurd, even with Mayer's sketchy injury history. 

I am not sure if it’s even selling low.  His contract still makes him valuable.  A small market team especially would love to have him for 7 years at his price tag.

He’s only spent a few weeks in AAA this year.  I wouldn’t put much stock in his performance either way just yet.

I think he’s proven more than the doubts he has created offensively.  Hes not a bench player and not a minor leaguer.  He has never had a position, which is an issue.  It would be nice if he could solve 2b, but he’s more likely to go to 1b…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I can see Campbell having a Lourdes Gurriel Jr. type career. 

When I saw the loaded Fisher Cats' Double A team featuring the sons of greats -- Vlad Jr, Bichette and Biggio -- Lourdes played shortstop and batted clean-up. He played SS and 2B in his first year in the bigs.

Soon he morphed into an All-Star leftfielder, with an eight-year, 162-average of 24 HR, 92 RBI, .275, .775.

Would we take that over the course of the team-friendly contract that KC signed?

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Kody has some assets and versatility, like a lot of players already on the 40. But he isn't a full-time second base solution. 

But I probably do this deal if you take out Clarke, who early in the Spring was looking like the Sox' best starting pitching prospect in decades (before Tolle grew his mustache).

I didn't realize Kody was already 29. His offense has improved in the past couple years, but he's still at a 98 OPS+, this year.

I agree: replace Clarke with Mullins (a Rule 5 guy.)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The broke Twins also don't want to be locked into the MLB salaries of Duran and Campbell. 

Abreu and Campbell are affordable. The Lux Tax number does not matter, and they can trade both, when their salaries increase. For KC, that might not be until 2030 or 2031. Abreu is pre-arb.

KC: 26:$2M, 27:$3M, 28:$4M, 29:$6M, 30:$9M, 31:$13M, 32:$16M, 33:$19M club option ($4M buyout), 34:$21M club option (no buyout)