Orioles (Sugano) vs Red Sox (Buehler): 8/19/25, 7:10pm

[drewski6]

If you never get bluffed out at the poker table , you are calling too often

If you never lose a showdown, you are folding too often

If you have no underwater contracts, you arent trying

You have to be willing to make mistakes 

You can talk yourself out of any contract due to the risk and your in-house candidates.  BUt if half your lineup has an "if" , and you are okay with that, its too complacent for my tastes.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Ben the Boob actually created a functional team in 2013:

Napoli 3.7 bWAR

Drew 2.7 bWAR

Gomes 1.6 bWAR

Victorino 6.0 bWAR

Carp 1.5 bWAR

Ross 0.7 bWAR 

Koji 3.5 bWAR

Peavy 0.6 bWAR (partial year)

 

That WAR for Koji was absolutely sick.   

[notin]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Cora .536 win %

Grady .552 win %

Time for a redemption arc. Right everybody?!?!?

 So… bring back Grady?  Odd choice…

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Im okay with being capable at either 1b or dh.  But not both. I want one of those positions to push a .850 OPS to complete the top half of the lineup=.  Feels like 1b or DH is the easiest route to getting a slugger.  And I dont want hope at both positions. I want an Alonso or a Brent Rooker at one of them, take a chance with inhouse candidates at the other

I agree. I think we have to add a right-side infielder, this winter. I still have a #2 SP and closer as a higher priority, but we should be able to fill 3 roles plus some added pen help.

We should be able to trade an OF'er to fix one of the 3 big holes, so we only need to fill 2 major slots via free agency. We just lost the Devers contract and will lose Buehler's, Chapman's, Wilson's, Hendriks' & Ref's, plus maybe Gio's. (I'm assuming Bregman comes back or my list grow by one major get needed.)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Ben the Boob actually created a functional team in 2013:

Napoli 3.7 bWAR

Drew 2.7 bWAR

Gomes 1.6 bWAR

Victorino 6.0 bWAR

Carp 1.5 bWAR

Ross 0.7 bWAR 

Koji 3.5 bWAR

Peavy 0.6 bWAR (partial year)

 

Yup, but how many of us felt good about that team before the season started?

That team should get fans thinking, never give up, never assume the team on paper equals the team on the field, and... BOSTON STRONG, Baby!

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup, but how many of us felt good about that team before the season started?

That team should get fans thinking, never give up, never assume the team on paper equals the team on the field, and... BOSTON STRONG, Baby!

2013 was a fluke because a crazy number of things went right.  But the Red Sox franchise and fans had a fluke championship coming to them, IMHO. 😊

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree. I think we have to add a right-side infielder, this winter. I still have a #2 SP and closer as a higher priority, but we should be able to fill 3 roles plus some added pen help.

We should be able to trade an OF'er to fix one of the 3 big holes, so we only need to fill 2 major slots via free agency. We just lost the Devers contract and will lose Buehler's, Chapman's, Wilson's, Hendriks' & Ref's, plus maybe Gio's. (I'm assuming Bregman comes back or my list grow by one major get needed.)

Looking at positional players by offensive WAR: our top is Bregman at #34, second is Duran at 40.

And theres a huge gap.  And as Im looking for #3, Im scrolling past guys like Xander , Schwarber, Devers.  Guys we "didnt need".  Or were willing to part with.  A lot of the reasoning was position.  I think getting an elite bat is priority one.  I fit them into any position. Even CF.

I just dont look at the team at position.  I see it more like you want 2 elite hitters, 5 adequate hitters.  Fit it in while not having terrible defense.  If guys have to move around thats just Baseball in 2025.  Theres no such thing as a third baseman or a first baseman or even a middle infielder in my eyes.  Well, I shouldnt say no such thing, but its a rarity.  You either have to be so good at a position for me to prioritize sticking you there vs versatility to fit a bat (like PCA) or so bad that you can only do 1b or lf (but then bring the bat).

But most dudes, I see through the lens of how good of a hitter are you, are you a decent defender.  Thats kind of it.  Bellichick made a living out of converting linebackers to lineman.

I think we need a masher because we got rid of our only proven masher.  I care not what position he plays.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

2013 was a fluke because a crazy number of things went right.  But the Red Sox franchise and fans had a fluke championship coming to them, IMHO. 😊

You couldnt get Ortiz out in 2013.  Thats not as rare or crazy as it may seem.  Plenty of bats have gotten super duper hot at the right time and carried a team on their back all the way.

[drewski6]

Positions are guidelines, not laws, in 2025

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

2013 was a fluke because a crazy number of things went right.  But the Red Sox franchise and fans had a fluke championship coming to them, IMHO. 😊

Agreed. We had been "fluked" a few times over the past few decades, before 2013.

I think if the 2013 team can win a ring, this team has a shot. That team was 74-54 on August 20th. Before the year started, not many people expected to see these numbers:

The top 9 batters by PAs all over .749 and Carp at .913 & Iggy at .785. On August 20th, our two top IP guys had these numbers:

4.09 Lester

4.77 Dempster

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Positions are guidelines, not laws, in 2025

It's on Cora's first page in his rule book.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Looking at positional players by offensive WAR: our top is Bregman at #34, second is Duran at 40.

And theres a huge gap.  And as Im looking for #3, Im scrolling past guys like Xander , Schwarber, Devers.  Guys we "didnt need".  Or were willing to part with.  A lot of the reasoning was position.  I think getting an elite bat is priority one.  I fit them into any position. Even CF.

I just dont look at the team at position.  I see it more like you want 2 elite hitters, 5 adequate hitters.  Fit it in while not having terrible defense.  If guys have to move around thats just Baseball in 2025.  Theres no such thing as a third baseman or a first baseman or even a middle infielder in my eyes.  Well, I shouldnt say no such thing, but its a rarity.  You either have to be so good at a position for me to prioritize sticking you there vs versatility to fit a bat (like PCA) or so bad that you can only do 1b or lf (but then bring the bat).

But most dudes, I see through the lens of how good of a hitter are you, are you a decent defender.  Thats kind of it.  Bellichick made a living out of converting linebackers to lineman.

I think we need a masher because we got rid of our only proven masher.  I care not what position he plays.

Yes, I agree on the lack of any true outstanding stars on the team, although Bregman would be top 10-15, had he not gotten hurt. Crochet is top 5 in pitching, but that's it. We have the top closer, so maybe 3 of the top players in MLB. That's a far cry from 2004, 2007 and 2018 but maybe not 2013.

This team does have more balance than just about every other team in MLB. Calling it mediocrity is fine, but not having as many sucking players as other teams is a good thing, too.

Since Devers is no longer here, Campbell is in AAA and Toro is benched, our top 9 batters are ALL ABOVE the MLB OPS of .719: (listed by most PAs)

.792 Duran

.729 Story (very slow start)

.721 Rafaela

.811 Abreu

.721 Narvaez

.926 Bregman

.835 Anthony (will likely lead the team in PAs after 8/20)

.845 Romy

.827 Refsnyder

One is a catcher, so we can construct a line-up with all 9 playing, once Ref comes off the IL.

When you look at our top IP Pitchers and take away Dobbins, Houck & Newcomb, our top 11 pitchers are all below a 3.63 ERA, except Buehler (5.43) and Fitts (4.83 and now in AAA.)

2.43 Crochet

3.23 Bello

3.63 Giolito

5.43 Buehler (maybe replaced by 2.87 D May, for the playoffs)

2.86 Whitlock

3.16 Weissert

1.15 Chapman (Uehara type numbers!

3.09 Bernardino

4.83 Fitts (in AAA)

2.61 Wilson

3.47 Slaten

On paper, we have very few obvious weak players.

1B: maybe Lowe redeems

2B: gonna need Romy and rafaela to shine, here

SP5: Buehler (May to #4)

Deep pen: fill in the blank

 

[drewski6]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I agree on the lack of any true outstanding stars on the team, although Bregman would be top 10-15, had he not gotten hurt. Crochet is top 5 in pitching, but that's it. We have the top closer, so maybe 3 of the top players in MLB. That's a far cry from 2004, 2007 and 2018 but maybe not 2013.

This team does have more balance than just about every other team in MLB. Calling it mediocrity is fine, but not having as many sucking players as other teams is a good thing, too.

Since Devers is no longer here, Campbell is in AAA and Toro is benched, our top 9 batters are ALL ABOVE the MLB OPS of .719: (listed by most PAs)

.792 Duran

.729 Story (very slow start)

.721 Rafaela

.811 Abreu

.721 Narvaez

.926 Bregman

.835 Anthony (will likely lead the team in PAs after 8/20)

.845 Romy

.827 Refsnyder

One is a catcher, so we can construct a line-up with all 9 playing, once Ref comes off the IL.

When you look at our top IP Pitchers and take away Dobbins, Houck & Newcomb, our top 11 pitchers are all below a 3.63 ERA, except Buehler (5.43) and Fitts (4.83 and now in AAA.)

2.43 Crochet

3.23 Bello

3.63 Giolito

5.43 Buehler (maybe replaced by 2.87 D May, for the playoffs)

2.86 Whitlock

3.16 Weissert

1.15 Chapman (Uehara type numbers!

3.09 Bernardino

4.83 Fitts (in AAA)

2.61 Wilson

3.47 Slaten

On paper, we have very few obvious weak players.

1B: maybe Lowe redeems

2B: gonna need Romy and rafaela to shine, here

SP5: Buehler (May to #4)

Deep pen: fill in the blank

 

Looks like one .850 OPS bat, one #2 starter, and a couple solid relievers away from being really really good.  The better we are , the less Im willing to settle. Not more.  There is no reason to not at least replace Devers, right? Thats what we were told.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I think you need someone to take a hit out on John Henry. 

Well, in all honesty JH has taken a lot of hits on terrible contracts.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Looks like one .850 OPS bat, one #2 starter, and a couple solid relievers away from being really really good.  The better we are , the less Im willing to settle. Not more.  There is no reason to not at least replace Devers, right? Thats what we were told.

I saw a huge step up, last winter, but then the Devers trade kinda put some doubt back into the JH financial commitment piece to the puzzle.

If we do as you and I suggest (add 3-4 key pieces and bring Bregman back) we should be a top 4-5 contender and maybe even the AL fave in 2026.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I am no Cora fan.  Hes better than, say, Kevin “the wins are on me, the losses are on them” Kennedy or Bobby Valentine.  But I think he leaves room for improvement.

Not anyone would be an improvement over Cora.  Hes far from the worst we’ve seen.  If they ever did replace him, who makes sense to take over?  Because much like with the very unpopular John Henry, I think we would find it’s easier to step down than step up…

Former catchers have had a successful run as good managers, so why not V-tek if he's open to it.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

 So… bring back Grady?  Odd choice…

Well, my preferred candidate passed away last year. 😭

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Former catchers have had a successful run as good managers, so why not V-tek if he's open to it.

He hasn't shown to be good at the job he has now.