The .500 Boston Red Sox

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, Kimmi said:

Breslow addressed what most considered to be our biggest needs this offseason, and he wasn't exactly cheap about it.  He did his job this offseason, outside of the lack of communication issues.

Needless to say, a lot has happened since the season started, but I think most people thought this would be a very competitive team.  Not that we're out of it, but most thought we'd be a decent number of games over .500 rather than hovering right at .500.

That's where the disappointments of this decade have carried over. Everyone acknowledged the acquisitions that would lead to improvement -- and most of them have played like All-Stars: Chapman, Crochet and Bregman.

Unfortunately, the Big Three rookies have been less Lynn and Rice, and more snips and snails and puppy dog tails. Somehow, Boston leads the league in errors again without Raffy playing a single inning in the field.

There's still time, obviously. But before the season, if fans were told the Sox would be 40-40 at the end of June after just losing Devers forever, the outlook would have to be more on the gloomy side.

[notin]

9 hours ago, Hitch said:

I would normally agree 100% - yet that's all I see are reports from people saying someone will give up a lottery ticket for Buehler due to his post season work. I find it doubtful too, but seeing it said enough that I'm starting to consider it possible.

Regardless, it would be not much of a piece so not worth considering in terms of what the rest could bring us.

Almost all lottery tickets aren’t worth the dollar you paid for them..

[notin]

6 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Don't Trust Anyone Over 30 (Sixties poster from my youth).

This is why Breslow and Bailey -- MLB pitchers in a past life -- shouldn't even think about trading Tolle or Clarke or Harrison for some swing-and-miss past-his-prime first baseman... as was suggested in some clickbait "article" (I think it was Tolle for Hoskins -- wanna see some real uproar here?).

Vaughn Grissom for Hoskins?

Per BTV, it’s an overpay….

[notin]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I agree 100%. After the Bregman signing I found myself quite optimistic, and was up until the devers trade.  Not trying to harp on that or bring it back up, but it was a turning point for me. I became much less optimistic that theyll figure it out this year (or next)

I’m not real sure what the debate is.  The sell off has clearly already started.  It’s like we’re on the Titanic post iceberg, and people are still debating whether or not to get in the life boats…

[Hitch]

10 hours ago, notin said:

Almost all lottery tickets aren’t worth the dollar you paid for them..

But worth more than Beuhler. 

[Hitch]

10 hours ago, notin said:

I’m not real sure what the debate is.  The sell off has clearly already started.  It’s like we’re on the Titanic post iceberg, and people are still debating whether or not to get in the life boats…

I'm really not so sure it's that clear cut. I think Breslow thought they could stay around the play off spots (which is true) until they could make moves to bring in a big bat. The next few weeks may well knock us clear of this idea and if it does I hope he;s got the courage to sell. 

Hard to do that when you've categorically stated your buyers twice since  the Devers trade but we'll see. 

[Bellhorn04]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

When is the last time a Sox GM added a Crochet, a Bregman, a Chapman, a Narvaez and a Wilson in one winter?

Oh and oops, he signed Buehler, so let's fire Brez.

 

But he has to be judged on total results, and those are not good.

[Hitch]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But he has to be judged on total results, and those are not good.

So far. He's had a year and a bit and took over a team that was not in a good place. He's done A LOT of good. Some bad as well, but such is the life of a GM. 

We should not be considering sacking him at all right now.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, Hitch said:

So far. He's had a year and a bit and took over a team that was not in a good place. He's done A LOT of good. Some bad as well, but such is the life of a GM. 

We should not be considering sacking him at all right now.

I'm not even considering it because I'm sure ownership isn't.

If anything, Breslow is their hero right now for shedding Raffy's contract.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Hitch said:

So far. He's had a year and a bit and took over a team that was not in a good place. He's done A LOT of good. Some bad as well, but such is the life of a GM. 

We should not be considering sacking him at all right now.

The team was a 78-84 win team and had a CY winner on the staff. Breslow traded the CY winner and got nothing back. He added 3 wins the first year after being well under the cap going into the offseason. What did he add in the offseason that considerably helped the team: O'Neill and the Verdugo trade. Last year was kind of a disappointment. Going into this season, the hope was that the Yankees were taking a step back and the Sox were taking a step forward. The Yankees did take a step back. The Red Sox are in the same place! No matter what moves he did, the Red Sox are in the same place they were with the last year's squad. That's on Breslow 100%. "We'll have more wins without Devers." They are 3-5 without Devers and won't be adding to the MLB roster from that trade for a week and a half. 🙃

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But he has to be judged on total results, and those are not good.

Yeah, you can like individual trades and moves (Verdugo trade, Crochet trade/extension, Wilson/Chapman FA signings, Narvaez), but he manages the entire squad. Even if every move he makes is an A+, the team could still be a .500 team because of the moves he fails to make (Wong, OF logjam, 1B, 2B, SP FA signings, Story, Masa, etc.). 

[Bellhorn04]

19 minutes ago, Hitch said:

So far. He's had a year and a bit and took over a team that was not in a good place. He's done A LOT of good. Some bad as well, but such is the life of a GM. 

We should not be considering sacking him at all right now.

I don't think anyone is seriously talking about sacking him at this point.  If you're Breslow or a fan of him, the biggest concern seems to be a sort of rising tide of negativity about his communication skills or lack thereof.

 

[Hitch]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The team was a 78-84 win team and had a CY winner on the staff. Breslow traded the CY winner and got nothing back. He added 3 wins the first year after being well under the cap going into the offseason. What did he add in the offseason that considerably helped the team: O'Neill and the Verdugo trade. Last year was kind of a disappointment. Going into this season, the hope was that the Yankees were taking a step back and the Sox were taking a step forward. The Yankees did take a step back. The Red Sox are in the same place! No matter what moves he did, the Red Sox are in the same place they were with the last year's squad. That's on Breslow 100%. "We'll have more wins without Devers." They are 3-5 without Devers and won't be adding to the MLB roster from that trade for a week and a half. 🙃

Nobody, absolutely NOBODY in the game saw Sale winning a CY or getting near it at the start of last season. He had achieved 2.5 war over the three previous seasons. Combined. And a 4.30 ERA in the season before he was traded. It hasn't worked out for us but there were no evaluators saying that was a terrible trade the days after it was made. Saying he traded a CY winner is peak revisionism. 

Yes, I'd like us to be further along. I also have much more patience than some of you. He took over a team that wasn't in a great place, lumbered with terrible contracts (and still are to a degree). He's made good moves, and some questioning ones. I don't expect perfection, but like you I do expect progression, Next year is when judgement for his body of work will be best judged. If it's still this level, he will deserve all the spotlight that will settle on that.

[Hitch]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't think anyone is seriously talking about sacking him at this point.  If you're Breslow or a fan of him, the biggest concern seems to be a sort of rising tide of negativity about his communication skills or lack thereof.

 

I think people are starting to talk themselves into it. Totally agree with the last point.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Nobody, absolutely NOBODY in the game saw Sale winning a CY

He had a CY winner on his staff and traded him away. He got nothing back. That's on his ledger. It's how it works. If he made a trade where he dumped Blaze Jordan and got a CY winner back, we'd be singing his praises. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I think people are starting to talk themselves into it. Totally agree with the last point.

It's not going to happen anytime soon. We just have to be honest with his performance. It's fine to look on the field and say "yeah, this is on the CBO." 

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Nobody, absolutely NOBODY in the game saw Sale winning a CY or getting near it at the start of last season. He had achieved 2.5 war over the three previous seasons. Combined. And a 4.30 ERA in the season before he was traded. It hasn't worked out for us but there were no evaluators saying that was a terrible trade the days after it was made. Saying he traded a CY winner is peak revisionism.

You can make a case, though, that there was no real reason to trade him, certainly not for a middle infield prospect.  And certainly not when the only acquisition you're going to make is Giolito.

My take on the Sale trade was that it was mainly about saving a few bucks. 

[Hitch]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He had a CY winner on his staff and traded him away. He got nothing back. That's on his ledger. It's how it works. If he made a trade where he dumped Blaze Jordan and got a CY winner back, we'd be singing his praises. 

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. He had a struggling, often injured starter on his team that almost everyone agreed shouldn't have been given the extension. 

As I said, I remember no evaluator called it a terrible deal. 

As I mention a lot - you can make the right move in baseball and still get it wrong. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You can make a case, though, that there was no real reason to trade him, certainly not for a middle infield prospect.  And certainly not when the only acquisition you're going to make is Giolito.

My take on the Sale trade was that it was mainly about saving a few bucks. 

For a MIF prospect was the weirdest part of it. I know they needed an MLB ready 2b, but they could have just found a short term FA. The system had Mayer, Rafaela, Yorke, Meidroth, Paulino, Romero (all at AA or above) and that doesn't even count Campbell who was having a crazy amount of helium during the offseason workouts that year. If MIF is the strength of your system, don't go trade for another guy to take away from someone else's reps. 

[Hitch]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's not going to happen anytime soon. We just have to be honest with his performance. It's fine to look on the field and say "yeah, this is on the CBO." 

That's fine - I've said in every post, he's got stuff wrong, too. But the time for judgement about the fruits of all his moves is still to come. Especially with what he was starting with.

[Hitch]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You can make a case, though, that there was no real reason to trade him, certainly not for a middle infield prospect.  And certainly not when the only acquisition you're going to make is Giolito.

My take on the Sale trade was that it was mainly about saving a few bucks. 

A well thought of prospect. 

I don't deny part of it was to do with money. but he probably looked at Sale and thought - injured often these past two to three years, was downright poor last year, and I also have Story and Yoshida's ridiculous salaries on the books. I have to make some savings somewhere to bring people in. 

Judging these things individually makes zero sense. 

[Bellhorn04]

14 minutes ago, Hitch said:

A well thought of prospect. 

I don't deny part of it was to do with money. but he probably looked at Sale and thought - injured often these past two to three years, was downright poor last year, and I also have Story and Yoshida's ridiculous salaries on the books. I have to make some savings somewhere to bring people in. 

Judging these things individually makes zero sense. 

But I'm not just judging individually, I'm saying if the only acquisition is Giolito, that makes this move questionable in itself.  

The 2024 pre-season projections for Sale and Giolito (before he got injured obviously) were roughly equal.

So from a totally objective standpoint, Breslow did not upgrade the rotation for 2024, and we all thought that was an important thing to do. 

In a way I'm defending him because I think he probably got squeezed payroll-wise and that's why he traded Sale, to knock $10 million off the number.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. He had a struggling, often injured starter on his team that almost everyone agreed shouldn't have been given the extension. 

As I said, I remember no evaluator called it a terrible deal. 

As I mention a lot - you can make the right move in baseball and still get it wrong. 

You can pitch 8 innings, not give up a hit and still lose the game. 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE199204121.shtml

I don't believe we can say it was clearly "the right move" though. 

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But I'm not just judging individually, I'm saying if the only acquisition is Giolito, that makes this move questionable in itself.  

The 2024 pre-season projections for Sale and Giolito (before he got injured obviously) were roughly equal.

So from a totally objective standpoint, Breslow did not upgrade the rotation for 2024, and we all thought that was an important thing to do. 

In a way I'm defending him because I think he probably got squeezed payroll-wise and that's why he traded Sale, to knock $10 million off the number.

But I'm saying he was working within a framework of money. He came into to a team with holes everywhere, a starting pitching lineup of Bello (opening day), Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, a seemingly broken Sale, ($30m contract) Wincowski. AND Story's contract who went down early, and Yoshida's contract. Was Gio a great signing? No, obviously not, it hasn't worked out with injury, and do we wish he'd got more in? Sure. But we know the ownership had spending limits and he saw a way to lose some of the money on a pitcher who had done nothing of note for 5 years while addressing other areas. 

The whole has to be taken in. The budget, contracts, who's available, orders from above, everything. 

Sale's previous years:

2019 - 25 starts. 4.40 ERA

2020 - covid - didn't start a game through injury.

22021 - 9 starts 

2022 - 2 starts 

2023 - 20 starts. 4.30 ERA

To go back to MVP's point that if we'd traded Blaze for a CY winner we'd be in rapture over. Of course, but we don't have looking glasses into the the future. If we'd given up prospects for that stat board in another player, the board would have been up in arms screaming bloody murder at ownership.

 

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The team was a 78-84 win team and had a CY winner on the staff. Breslow traded the CY winner and got nothing back. He added 3 wins the first year after being well under the cap going into the offseason. What did he add in the offseason that considerably helped the team: O'Neill and the Verdugo trade. Last year was kind of a disappointment. Going into this season, the hope was that the Yankees were taking a step back and the Sox were taking a step forward. The Yankees did take a step back. The Red Sox are in the same place! No matter what moves he did, the Red Sox are in the same place they were with the last year's squad. That's on Breslow 100%. "We'll have more wins without Devers." They are 3-5 without Devers and won't be adding to the MLB roster from that trade for a week and a half. 🙃

Who was this Cy Young winner?

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, Hitch said:

But I'm saying he was working within a framework of money. He came into to a team with holes everywhere, a starting pitching lineup of Bello (opening day), Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, a seemingly broken Sale, ($30m contract) Wincowski. AND Story's contract who went down early, and Yoshida's contract. Was Gio a great signing? No, obviously not, it hasn't worked out with injury, and do we wish he'd got more in? Sure. But we know the ownership had spending limits and he saw a way to lose some of the money on a pitcher who had done nothing of note for 5 years while addressing other areas. 

The whole has to be taken in. The budget, contracts, who's available, orders from above, everything. 

Sale's previous years:

2019 - 25 starts. 4.40 ERA

2020 - covid - didn't start a game through injury.

22021 - 9 starts 

2022 - 2 starts 

2023 - 20 starts. 4.30 ERA

To go back to MVP's point that if we'd traded Blaze for a CY winner we'd be in rapture over. Of course, but we don't have looking glasses into the the future. If we'd given up prospects for that stat board in another player, the board would have been up in arms screaming bloody murder at ownership.

 

The only justifiable reason to make the trade was the money part.  We all know the injury history.  So did Atlanta, and they were obviously very interested in him.

[Hitch]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The only justifiable reason to make the trade was the money part.  We all know the injury history.  So did Atlanta, and they were obviously very interested in him.

We all know the injury history, but the only justifiable reason was the money? 

And yes, that's why I'm saying he went in the main. Because the guy with his back ground was earning $30m a year while we had other players earning far too much for what we are getting from them and Breslow was working to a strict budget. .

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He had a CY winner on his staff and traded him away. He got nothing back. That's on his ledger. It's how it works. If he made a trade where he dumped Blaze Jordan and got a CY winner back, we'd be singing his praises. 

and he got the same thing in the Devers trade. just unbelievably poor return for such a successful, established hitter. 

[notin]

21 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The only justifiable reason to make the trade was the money part.  We all know the injury history.  So did Atlanta, and they were obviously very interested in him.

If it was only about the money, the Sox would have traded him to Texas and given up the entire contract.  
 

There is a good chance you’re (deliberately?) overstating Atlanta’s interest.  They did insist Boston include money if Boston wanted anything of potential value in return.  If they were, as you say, VERY interested, that feels like a demand that could jeopardize the deal.

 

I mean, Boston had a 35yo oft-injured pitcher who had posted less fWAR over the previous 5 seasons than Martin Pérez.  They traded him clearly not solely to move the money, but also tried to get something of value back.  Would you prefer management that just unloaded contracts without trying to get back players and saved more money?  Do you prefer management that clings to non-performing veteran talent and keeps their salaries on the books so as not to pave the way for other players?

It really seems like you do…

[mvp 78]

They swapped Chris Sale (27M, 4.30 ERA, 2.1 fWAR '23) for Lucas Giolito (18M, 4.88 ERA, 0.9 fWAR '23).

They went cheap and it didn't work out. Should have spent more and brought in Sonny Gray and we'd be complaining less.