Article: 4 Teams That Could Trade For Jarren Duran Or Wilyer Abreu

[Bellhorn04]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's the goal, but at some point they also have to be realistic about the goal. 

Hopefully the real decision point is around the end of July.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Hopefully the real decision point is around the end of July.

I'm sure they'll be juuuuuuuust close enough to hem and haw around then too. 👎

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd move Story to 2b and Marcelo to SS. Story's defense hasn't been good enough this year. It's time to just rip the band-aid off. 

I think Mayer could well be the better defensive SS, but I like Story's experience and smarts at SS.   But it's also a fact that Story was pretty good at 2b in his first season with Boston.  

[Maxbialystock]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

In all the excitement, Roman has 1 hit in 3 games, an OPS of .321 and a bWAR of -0.2.  Which is obviously in a miniscule sample, but it's also a reminder that baseball is hard, and the Sox might be wise to keep their options open a while yet. 

True, but that one hit was huge in a low-scoring game.  When Abreu returns, the Sox will have 5 outfielders:  Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, and Ref.  Something's got to give.  

[notin]

43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd rather DFA Story and not ruin the return on a Duran package! I'm not the one running the team and don't think that scenario is realistic under Henry though. 

Ruin the return?  You keep telling us how awful Duran is!

If BTV value is accurate, Duran should command a good return. While Duran has more surplus value than Andrew Painter, I would be shocked if DD included him.  He wanted Painter in the rotation last year. 
 

The Bleacher Report proposed Painter plus 17yo catching prospect Eduardo Tait (BA #93). BTV called it an overpay.  I call it a Pipe Dream.  But I could see a deal for RHSP Mick Abel, Tait, and 20yo AA SS Aidan Miller (BA #36)…

[notin]

10 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

True, but that one hit was huge in a low-scoring game.  When Abreu returns, the Sox will have 5 outfielders:  Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, and Ref.  Something's got to give.  

They’ll demote Hamilton.

My guess is Cora will start Anthony in LF platooning with Refsnyder, Duran in CF everyday, and Abreu in RF platooned with Rafaela.  Also Mayer gets platooned at 3b with Romy.  But Story plays everyday!

And every time Cora does this, I will stick another pin into my Alex Cora bobble head…

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Sox aren't sellers yet.

I think sellers is the wrong term.  The Sox need pitching and will shortly have 5 outfielders:  Rafaela, Duran, Abreu, Ref, and Anthony.  The first three have the 4th, 5th, and 6th best fWAR's on this team.  When Bregman returns, they will also have at least one extra infielder.  

[Maxbialystock]

1 minute ago, notin said:

They’ll demote Hamilton and solve everything…

I think so too.  But Bregman returns in a month or less.  

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Ruin the return?  You keep telling us how awful Duran is!

If BTV value is accurate, Duran should command a good return. While Duran has more surplus value than Andrew Painter, I would be shocked if DD included him.  He wanted Painter in the rotation last year. 
 

The Bleacher Report proposed Painter plus 17yo catching prospect Eduardo Tait (BA #93). BTV called it an overpay.  I call it a Pipe Dream.  But I could see a deal for RHSP Mick Abel, Tait, and 20yo AA SS Aidan Miller (BA #36)…

I didn't say he was awful. I just said there are other players on the Sox that are playing better. The Sox are 7th in Batting fWAR so they have everyday players that are playing well. Duran is having an ok season, but he's not playing as well as Rafaela or Abreu IMO. I'd also rather take a chance on high variance Anthony than Duran. 

Duran has value across the league. If they wanted to move him, there are probably 10+ teams they could trade him to today. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I think so too.  But Bregman returns in a month or less.  

He was spotted running at Fenway. I'm sure he'll be good to go in that time frame. 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, harmony said:

Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu are not the answers to the most pressing needs for the slumping Seattle Mariners.

The Mariners rank 12th in the American League with an ERA+ of 91 and third in the league with an OPS+ of 109 (one point behind the Red Sox).

This year Randy Arozarena has posted 1.3 WAR and a 119 wRC+ in 65 games.

Jarren Duran has posted 1.3 WAR and a 106 wRC+ in 69 games while Wilyer Abreu has posted a 1.2 WAR and a 112 wRC+ in 64 games.

FanGraphs projects Arozarena with 1.5 WAR and 117 wRC+ in 89 games the remainder of the season. Duran is projected with 1.6 WAR and 107 wRC+ in 83 games and Abreu with 1.0 WAR and 107 wRC+ in 56 games.

Right field remains an issue for Seattle with its injured list housing Victor Robles and Luke Raley, who last year posted 3.1 and 3.2 bWAR for the Mariners. Robles is looking at a September return at the earliest but Raley may begin a rehab assignment soon.

Seattle is unlikely to trade from Keith Law's top-ranked farm system to acquire Duran or Abreu.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/randy-arozarena/19290/stats?position=OF

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/wilyer-abreu/23772/stats?position=OF

 

 

Say the mariners and he appears.

I belieeeeeve in joe hendry

(respectfully)

[Nick]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd move Story to 2b and Marcelo to SS. Story's defense hasn't been good enough this year. It's time to just rip the band-aid off. 

 That works for me.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Campbell to Worcester?

my question too

[drewski6]

55 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm sure they'll be juuuuuuuust close enough to hem and haw around then too. 👎

More things change, more things stay the same.

[drewski6]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I didn't say he was awful. I just said there are other players on the Sox that are playing better. The Sox are 7th in Batting fWAR so they have everyday players that are playing well. Duran is having an ok season, but he's not playing as well as Rafaela or Abreu IMO. I'd also rather take a chance on high variance Anthony than Duran. 

Duran has value across the league. If they wanted to move him, there are probably 10+ teams they could trade him to today. 

If by 10 , you mean 30

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's not that I want to deplete depth by trading good players, it's that there are two specific needs: making room for the Roman Empire, and acquiring legitimate pitching.

Put it this way: if the Sox trade Duran or Abreu for a good arm and then one of the remaining starting outfielders gets injured, they can fill in the OF spot from the bench or another promotion. But if they don't upgrade the pitching -- even if no other pitchers get hurt -- they still have the same mediocre pitching.

[mvp 78]

32 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Say the mariners and he appears.

I belieeeeeve in joe hendry

(respectfully)

[drewski6]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I cant tell if you got my reference/joke which was made for an audience of one (you)

[TedYazPapiMookie]

Abreu is the only player who needs a platoon mate to roster at the same time for LH pitchers.  He's the obvious choice for who needs to go.  The additional roster spot is too precious for a guy who can't hit lefties to consume with his own spot.  

3B needs to be Story right now.  Mayer needs to prove he can handle SS and if he can't then Campbell can take over as the better fielder not anointed to the position at the draft.  Story will be the utility middle infielder when Bregman returns.

Simple line-up:

Duran CF

Rafaela RF

Devers DH

Toro 1B

Anthony LF

Narvaez C

Mayer SS

Story 3B

Campbell 2B

Then when Bregman returns:

Duran CF

Bregman 3B

Devers DH

Toro 1B

Anthony LF

Narvaez C

Mayer SS

Campbell 2B

Rafaela RF

Trade Yoshida and Abreu for pitching.

Reserve hitters - C Wong, MI - Story, CI - Gonzalez, OF - Refsnyder.

Add experience and you have an excellent 2026 offensive/defensive roster that will be better than the 2025 hitting roster.

 

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I cant tell if you got my reference/joke which was made for an audience of one (you)

Clap Clap

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, notin said:

The Bleacher Report (slogan: More accurate than The Onion!) suggests Philly would deal Andrew Painter for Duran.  While BTV gives Duran the higher surplus value, I don’t see Philly doing it.  Maybe Mick Abel, but not Painter..

I watched painter throw against Worcester last week! His stuff is impressive, but he served up more meatballs than Sandlin!!! Ouch!!!!

[dgalehouse]

Duran is the leadoff hitter. An exciting player who is a catalyst to the offense. Trading him would be a mistake. 

[mvp 78]

46 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I watched painter throw against Worcester last week! His stuff is impressive, but he served up more meatballs than Sandlin!!! Ouch!!!!

He is coming off TJS

[dgalehouse]

The way pitchers are breaking down these days, I would be very careful about trading an every day regular with All Star ability for a pitcher.

[Kimmi]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

Duran is the leadoff hitter. An exciting player who is a catalyst to the offense. Trading him would be a mistake. 

100%.

I'm not sure why people are so anxious to trade away our players.

Depth, depth, and more depth.

[Kimmi]

5 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I stand by what I said.  If the goal is to make the playoffs this year, there are good reasons not to be in a hurry to trade Duran or Abreu.  We're all excited by Anthony's potential, but like all the kids he still has a way to go to prove himself.

100%.  I also stand by what you said.

[dgalehouse]

The goal should always be to win the division or, at the very least, to make the playoffs. And this year's edition of the Red Sox absolutely has enough talent to do that  There is something seriously wrong with the attitude of a Sox fan who wants to abandon ship in the month of June. 

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

He is coming off TJS

And there is no evidence at this point that painter regains his amazing stuff!!!  

[TedYazPapiMookie]

40 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

The goal should always be to win the division or, at the very least, to make the playoffs. And this year's edition of the Red Sox absolutely has enough talent to do that  There is something seriously wrong with the attitude of a Sox fan who wants to abandon ship in the month of June. 

Building for the future is the way I look at 2025.  The remaining games are against good enough teams that the 36 losses in the first 70 games would need to occur for the last 92 games.  That means a record of 54 and 36 or 18 over .500 for the rest of the season.  While anything is possible, realistically Boston winning 90 games is a very long shot.  That number won't win the division, but it might get you in the playoffs.  So if that is not truly feasible, shouldn't the team be settling in at their long-term positions and performing the best they can to provide the front office with some answers that are needed for the future?

1 - Will Cora be here?

2 - Will Bregman be here?

3 - If not Bregman who at 3B? 

4 - Is Mayer capable of defense good enough to replace Story at SS?

5 - Is Cora going to figure out that Anthony needs to be the LF like Yaz and Williams because Duran is an elite CF but a bad LF and Rafaela can play RF with his speed and superior defensive skills and much stronger arm than Duran.

6 - Can Abreu provide any value to the team when he's a platoon player that forces the team to eat a roster spot for the 40% of the time that Abreu can't start due to a lefty pitcher?

7 - Will Casas be a better candidate for 1B than Toro?

8 - Can Breslow plug all the holes in the pitching staff?  If so, with whom?

9 - Will Buehler want to come back and will Breslow want him to return?

10 - Who will be the closer in 2026?

These are just 10 items that need to be worked out if the young team of 2025 is to develop into the division winning team of 2026.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

Jarren Duran Gets Bad News on Red Sox Trade Deadline Plans