Article: Roman Anthony Is Going to Force Some Difficult Red Sox Roster Decisions

[Alex Mayes]

Roman Anthony is headed to Boston. After what feels like ten forevers, the top prospect in baseball is finally making his major league debut on June 9 against the Rays. This is a joyous occasion for Red Sox fans, but it comes with a bit of intrigue as well. The reason Anthony has been called up is because Wilyer Abreu is headed to the injured list. As of this writing, we aren’t sure why Abreu is being placed on the IL or for how long, but we do know that once he’s cleared to return then there’s going to be another logjam in the outfield for the three starting positions. Should Anthony come up and mash like he’s expected to, some difficult decisions and conversations are going to need to be had. Let’s take a look at a couple of different scenarios that could happen once the outfield is fully healthy again.

Scenario #1: Jarren Duran is traded

I’ve advocated for this more than once here on Talk Sox, but Anthony’s call up presents the perfect opportunity to trade Jarren Duran before his value decreases even more. There have already been reports that the team would entertain moving him and Abreu, and the Padres have long been rumored to be interested in bringing Duran to San Diego. He’s going to be one of the most asked about players on the team as we approach the trade deadline, and with the Red Sox hurtling towards a pure youth movement, he’s the odd man out. Anthony could man both center and right field at Fenway Park, but moving Duran opens up left field for him as well. Ceddanne Rafaela and Abreu have far more experience in the two most demanding outfield positions and both are Gold Glove-caliber outfielders. The same can’t be said for Duran. Yes, he has experience in left field, but his defense is subpar and slowly declining. At this point, he is solely a left fielder. Opening up his spot for Anthony allows for the entire outfield to be able to shift to each position instead of having someone just stuck in left. Trade packages for Duran would likely net the Red Sox both controllable MLB talent and more prospects to add to their farm system. It’s a win all around.

Scenario #2: Wilyer Abreu returns, is promptly traded

After a scorching start to the season, Abreu has cooled off significantly leading up to his injury. He’s slashing .245/.321/.471 with 13 home runs, 32 RBIS, and a .792 OPS. He’s shown a more consistent power stroke at the plate, almost eclipsing his home run total from last season by the start of June. He’s already won a Gold Glove in right field and is likely going to be in the running for the award again this year, even if he’s already committed five errors on the season. The sticking point with Abreu is that he’s still viewed as a platoon right fielder in the system. For better or worse, the coaching staff seems averse to letting left0handed rookies hit against left-handed pitchers. If a lefty is on the mound of the opposition, Abreu is sitting in favor of Rob Refsnyder. This hurts his trade value a decent amount unless another team believes that the Red Sox are being too cautious with Abreu and he can play against lefties. In that case, they may be willing to offer a significant package for him.

Scenario #3: Anthony struggles and is sent back down

Maybe this is the actual least likely scenario now that I’ve typed it out, but there’s a chance that Anthony breaks into the majors and falls flat. There’s a history of top prospects doing just that. Both Mike Trout and Jackson Holliday were sent back down to Triple-A to figure things out when they struggled after their initial call up. From what we’ve seen, there’s little reason to believe Anthony will struggle mightily now that he's on the big league roster, but the chance is still there. Should he be optioned back to Worcester, it’s not an indictment on his talent or a knock against him. It would likely be a quick trip back to the minors before he’s brought back up to make another impact on the big league roster.

I’m sure that people will wonder why I haven’t included a scenario with Ceddanne Rafaela on this list. It’s fairly simple: the team seems to value his defense far more than anything else, and that makes him safe from either being traded or sent down. We lived with Jackie Bradley Jr.’s hot and cold streaks because he was an incredible center fielder. We’ll be doing the same with Rafaela. Yes, he’s had some mental mistakes this season and has room to grow, but Alex Cora has spoken with him about those throwing issues and his at-bats have been more major league quality as of late. He’s likely going to be in Boston no matter what, so it’s time to face the facts that either Duran or Abreu will be the odd man out in the outfield now.

It’s an exciting time in Boston after the shocking news that Roman Anthony is joining the other members of the Big Three in the big leagues. While we’re all awaiting what he can do on this stage, we need to remember that he’s just a kid and he’s been placed on maybe the highest pedestal a prospect can be placed on. His success likely means one of our favorite outfielders is on his way out of Boston during or after the season. While that can and will sting, it will help pave the way for the future of the organization. Roman Anthony is going to be an impactful member of the roster for years to come, and sometimes that means trading fan favorite players to clear the path.

View full article

[TedYazPapiMookie]

The only scenario that makes sense is Scenario #2.

Abreu is a platoon hitter whereas Duran, Rafaela and Anthony are not.

Abreu is the weakest outfielder defensively of the four players, but he has a great arm.

The 13 man roster only allows for 4 outfielders.  With Abreu you are forced into 5 because he can't left handed pitchers so Refsnyder and Abreu need to be rostered as a couple and the roster has no room for that type of decision.  Also, the bogus GG Abreu got for being the best glove in an incredibly weak group of right fielders in the AL inflates his value to other teams.  I only say that because the MLB channel guys talk about his GG as if it was legit, never mentioning that he finished 2024 with defensive stats lower than both Duran and Rafaela.

Abreu is a sell high scenario and might get us a young quality starting pitcher.  Or he could help us salary dump Yoshida if Abreu is included for free for a prospect.

Scenarios #1 and #3 make no sense.  Abreu due to being a platoon hitter must be the odd man out.

 

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

The only scenario that makes sense is Scenario #2.

Abreu is a platoon hitter whereas Duran, Rafaela and Anthony are not.

Abreu is the weakest outfielder defensively of the four players, but he has a great arm.

The 13 man roster only allows for 4 outfielders.  With Abreu you are forced into 5 because he can't left handed pitchers so Refsnyder and Abreu need to be rostered as a couple and the roster has no room for that type of decision.  Also, the bogus GG Abreu got for being the best glove in an incredibly weak group of right fielders in the AL inflates his value to other teams.  I only say that because the MLB channel guys talk about his GG as if it was legit, never mentioning that he finished 2024 with defensive stats lower than both Duran and Rafaela.

Abreu is a sell high scenario and might get us a young quality starting pitcher.  Or he could help us salary dump Yoshida if Abreu is included for free for a prospect.

Scenarios #1 and #3 make no sense.  Abreu due to being a platoon hitter must be the odd man out.

 

You also have what happens when Bregman comes back. More roster decisions.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

Just now, Old Red said:

You also have what happens when Bregman comes back. More roster decisions.

True.  My 13 rostered hitters would be:

C - Narvaez, 1B - Toro, 2B - Campbell, SS - Mayer, 3B - Bregman, Middle infield reserve - Story, Corner Infield reserve - Gonzalez, Reserve Catcher - Wong, LF - Duran, CF - Rafaela, RF - Anthony, Reserve Outfielder - Abreu for now but I would trade him and use Refsnyder, DH - Devers.

When Casas comes back in 2026 then he takes 1B and Toro is the Corner Infielder Reserve. 

The hitting side of the equation seems pretty much set and the 4 reserves are at a level appropriate for a championship team. 

Breslow now must focus on the pitching.

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

You also have what happens when Bregman comes back. More roster decisions.

 

[Hugh2]

There's essentially very little difference between option 1 and option 2. 

I would trade whoever is going to give the team the biggest return.  Flip assets for starting pitching. 

We need another starter, and it would be optimal to pick up someone under control for next year as well.  And you can do that while making room for Anthony/Rafaela/(Abreu or Duran)

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

There's essentially very little difference between option 1 and option 2. 

I would trade whoever is going to give the team the biggest return.  Flip assets for starting pitching. 

We need another starter, and it would be optimal to pick up someone under control for next year as well.  And you can do that while making room for Anthony/Rafaela/(Abreu or Duran)

I agree with this. I'd prefer to keep Abreu, but if they can only get a good deal out of moving him then do that. Duran and Abreu are similar enough that it's more important to get Anthony in the lineup and figure it out from there if you really believe in Rafaela as the everyday CFer. 

[Hitch]

55 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

The only scenario that makes sense is Scenario #2.

Abreu is a platoon hitter whereas Duran, Rafaela and Anthony are not.

Abreu is the weakest outfielder defensively of the four players, but he has a great arm.

The 13 man roster only allows for 4 outfielders.  With Abreu you are forced into 5 because he can't left handed pitchers so Refsnyder and Abreu need to be rostered as a couple and the roster has no room for that type of decision.  Also, the bogus GG Abreu got for being the best glove in an incredibly weak group of right fielders in the AL inflates his value to other teams.  I only say that because the MLB channel guys talk about his GG as if it was legit, never mentioning that he finished 2024 with defensive stats lower than both Duran and Rafaela.

Abreu is a sell high scenario and might get us a young quality starting pitcher.  Or he could help us salary dump Yoshida if Abreu is included for free for a prospect.

Scenarios #1 and #3 make no sense.  Abreu due to being a platoon hitter must be the odd man out.

 

I agree with this. I'd be okay with Duran being traded if the return blew us away, but otherwise Abreu makes the most sense for the reasons outlined. It made sense in the off season. It makes even more sense now. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Anyone watching daily/nightly can see that both Duran and Abreu are overrated defensively -- at least by the stats that non-Sox fans or non-Sox media monitor.

Duran improved since he debuted, but it's pretty obvious his hands are still clanky. 

Abreu has less speed, but a far stronger arm. 

Right now Breslow should trade whichever player yields the best return for pitching.

And nobody should stress that Rafaela is etched in stone as a core starter, either. The Password Garcia is already on the 40-man roster, currently has an .840 OPS in Worcester, is a strong defender in the outfield, and hit more minor league home runs last year than any of The Big Three.

 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Anyone watching daily/nightly can see that both Duran and Abreu are overrated defensively -- at least by the stats that non-Sox fans or non-Sox media monitor.

Duran improved since he debuted, but it's pretty obvious his hands are still clanky. 

Abreu has less speed, but a far stronger arm. 

Right now Breslow should trade whichever player yields the best return for pitching.

And nobody should stress that Rafaela is etched in stone as a core starter, either. The Password Garcia is already on the 40-man roster, currently has an .840 OPS in Worcester, is a strong defender in the outfield, and hit more minor league home runs last year than any of The Big Three.

Garcia isn't a CFer going forward. He's a corner OFer at the MLB level. He won't have the speed to play CF.

If Rafaela is moved off CF, the only other option is Duran. After that, the true CFers are in GRE and lower: Taylor and Bleis (unless you need a one day call up for Sikes or Rosier).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Garcia isn't a CFer going forward. He's a corner OFer at the MLB level. He won't have the speed to play CF.

If Rafaela is moved off CF, the only other option is Duran. After that, the true CFers are in GRE and lower: Taylor and Bleis (unless you need a one day call up for Sikes or Rosier).

Rafaela is signed longterm to a contract the team can carry. I'm not worried about CF.

The point about having Garcia, along with Anthony -- and Campbell if he doesn't smooth out his 2B edges -- is that both Duran and Abreu are expendable, and neither will be part of the outfield on the next true contender... unless they're both traded for pitchers who'll help make Boston better.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Rafaela is signed longterm to a contract the team can carry. I'm not worried about CF.

The point about having Garcia, along with Anthony -- and Campbell if he doesn't smooth out his 2B edges -- is that both Duran and Abreu are expendable, and neither will be part of the outfield on the next true contender... unless they're both traded for pitchers who'll help make Boston better.

I think one of Duran or Abreu could be part of OF of a Sox true contender, but it would most likely be Abreu due to age. I think an OF of Anthony/Rafaela/Abreu is most certainly good enough to be playoff worthy. If Mayer takes over and performs at SS and Campbell improves at 2B, the middle of the IF should be all set. We should assume that C is at least decent with Narvaez at 50% of the time, but will need another defensive catcher. They should add top level 1B and 3B to round out the lineup. I'd be happy with that! 

Right now, it's the starting pitching that's really holding back the Sox IMO. 

Chris Bassitt (37)
Shane Bieber (31) – $16MM player option with a $4MM buyout
Walker Buehler (31) – $25MM mutual option with a $3MM buyout
Dylan Cease (30)
Zach Eflin (32)
Jack Flaherty (30) – can opt out of remaining one year, $10MM
Zac Gallen (30)
Shota Imanaga (32) – $57MM club option for 2026-28 or $15MM player option for 2026
Merrill Kelly (37)
Clayton Kershaw (38)
Michael King (31) – $15MM mutual option with a $3.75MM buyout
Zack Littell (30)
Seth Lugo (36) – $15MM player option
Dustin May (28)
Freddy Peralta (30) – $8MM club option with no buyout
Chris Sale (37) – $18MM club option
Ranger Suarez (30)
Tomoyuki Sugano (36)
Framber Valdez (32)
Brandon Woodruff (32) – $20MM mutual option with a $10MM buyout

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

True.  My 13 rostered hitters would be:

C - Narvaez, 1B - Toro, 2B - Campbell, SS - Mayer, 3B - Bregman, Middle infield reserve - Story, Corner Infield reserve - Gonzalez, Reserve Catcher - Wong, LF - Duran, CF - Rafaela, RF - Anthony, Reserve Outfielder - Abreu for now but I would trade him and use Refsnyder, DH - Devers.

 

 

What would you do if bregman decides to opt out at the end of the year?

[mvp 78]

And Rafaela may not need to be entrenched as the CFer depending on his bat. If he's below 700, I don't believe he's really playable. He's not even the best CFer in the division. 

 

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

And Rafaela may not need to be entrenched as the CFer depending on his bat. If he's below 700, I don't believe he's really playable. He's not even the best CFer in the division. 

 

Rafaela's OPS is under .700.  His bWAR is 2.3 and his fWAR is 1.7.

Are you a WAR denier? 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Rafaela's OPS is under .700.  His bWAR is 2.3 and his fWAR is 1.7.

Are you a WAR denier? 

Nope. If he's under 700, I'm fine with moving on from him if they want to be a serious org. 

[mvp 78]

20 teams with better W/L records than the Sox. 

[mvp 78]

Is this "LOL Baseball random" and like the Padres of a few years ago, the Sox will make a big run at the end of the year? 

[mvp 78]

Or is there something else causing the mix the Sox have to just make them be well under .500? 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

5 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

What would you do if bregman decides to opt out at the end of the year?

If someone is willing to go HIGHER than $40Million for 2 years, I would be very surprised but if someone is willing to go longer at $40Million, I would match it or exceed it to get him back.  The interesting spin on Bregman is his connection to Cora.  If Cora is let go does that mean Bregman will opt out?  I have no idea how tight that link is but it seems pretty tight.

I think there are only two all-star quality 3Bs that are free agents this off-season and Bregman is one of them.  The other is Suarez who might love hitting in Boston but he's a below average fielder.  The offensive production needs to be replaced if Bregman is gone so he seems like the best FA and he's half the annual price.  

I might proactively extend the $40Million 2 more years right now for Bregman and ask him to drop the opt out for the $80Million extra dollars.  This team is coming into its own and Bregman is a key piece.

 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I agree with this. I'd prefer to keep Abreu, but if they can only get a good deal out of moving him then do that. Duran and Abreu are similar enough that it's more important to get Anthony in the lineup and figure it out from there if you really believe in Rafaela as the everyday CFer. 

There are two VERY big differences between Abreu and Duran

1 - Duran is the best leadoff hitter since Mookie and Abreu doesn't have leadoff man skills.

2 - Duran hits for a higher average, has more speed on the bases and is a superior defender despite the GG that should have an asterisk next to it for going against such weak competition.

I seriously don't understand why everyone is high on a platoon hitter who is the weakest of the big four defenders, who isn't particularly fast but swings for the fences all the time and causes the team to eat up another roster spot for his platoon mate.

As far as Rafaela goes, he's a better hitting version of JBJ based on his minor league performance.  Think back to how many years JBJ hit under .200 through May and then got hot and had enormous streaks just to return to being cold late in the year.  I believe Rafaela will be more consistent, but he needs to prove it.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Nope. If he's under 700, I'm fine with moving on from him if they want to be a serious org. 

His OPS is .695 and it was over .700 a couple of days ago.  Point in time decisions over a guy who is 24 and is constantly improving?  Is that a knee-jerk reaction that doesn't allow a top prospect to develop?  Abreu is a platoon hitter, is that a serious organization move?  Carrying an extra player to make up for the issues with Abreu?  I don't get that logic.  

[TedYazPapiMookie]

The WAR numbers above triggered an idea for a trade.  DD is pitching heavy, and Boston is hitting heavy so lets trade Abreu for Abel.  It solves the outfield problem and adds what looks to be an excellent arm.

With recent improvements from guys like Bleis and Refsnyder earning that 4th outfielder spot Boston won't miss Abreu's bat now that they have Anthony's and they won't need to roster an extra guy to make up for Abreu's inability to hit lefties.

For me, Abreu is clearly the weakest of the four prime outfielders yet for some unknown reason he seems to be liked by the media and fans despite his shortcomings.  His ratio of appeal to talent is second to Anthony so he's the perfect guy to trade to maximize value.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

4 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

If someone is willing to go HIGHER than $40Million for 2 years, I would be very surprised but if someone is willing to go longer at $40Million, I would match it or exceed it to get him back.  The interesting spin on Bregman is his connection to Cora.  If Cora is let go does that mean Bregman will opt out?  I have no idea how tight that link is but it seems pretty tight.

I think there are only two all-star quality 3Bs that are free agents this off-season and Bregman is one of them.  The other is Suarez who might love hitting in Boston but he's a below average fielder.  The offensive production needs to be replaced if Bregman is gone so he seems like the best FA and he's half the annual price.  

I might proactively extend the $40Million 2 more years right now for Bregman and ask him to drop the opt out for the $80Million extra dollars.  This team is coming into its own and Bregman is a key piece.

 

He may get a longer deal at less annual but more total money.

Plus, at this point in his career, he may be chasing another ring or two.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

He may get a longer deal at less annual but more total money.

Plus, at this point in his career, he may be chasing another ring or two.

I agree but I think if Cora is in Boston, Bregman will be in Boston and Cora will talk Breslow into the necessary extension.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

18 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Anyone watching daily/nightly can see that both Duran and Abreu are overrated defensively -- at least by the stats that non-Sox fans or non-Sox media monitor.

Duran improved since he debuted, but it's pretty obvious his hands are still clanky. 

Abreu has less speed, but a far stronger arm. 

Right now Breslow should trade whichever player yields the best return for pitching.

And nobody should stress that Rafaela is etched in stone as a core starter, either. The Password Garcia is already on the 40-man roster, currently has an .840 OPS in Worcester, is a strong defender in the outfield, and hit more minor league home runs last year than any of The Big Three.

 

Duran struggles far more in LF than CF.  That's why when Rafaela came up, I expected him to handle the toughest outfield position, (RIGHT FIELD) because many say the size is bigger than CF and clearly it has some tricky plays that need to be made down the line.  The short (not tall) HR fence also makes it very challenging and dangerous.

We've had two legends in LF over the years, and I think Anthony is a perfect third legend.  Trade Abreu and get some pitching or dump Yoshida's money with Abreu's talent and buy some pitching or a prospect if Yoshida is included.  Refsnyder is an excellent right-handed 4th outfielder.  I just wish they would switch Mayer and Story so when Bregman is back Story becomes the reserve middle infielder and Mayer gets to prove that his defense is not as bad as his minor league numbers suggest.

Abreu's hitting versus lefties and his strong and accurate arm should be worth a lot on the open market and we won't miss his streaky hitting performance each year.  Abreu hits .304 in March/April, .222 in May, .227 in June, .250 in July, .295 in August and .234 in Sept.  It's good that he's injured right now because his June OPS is .561.  

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

When Abreu comes back healthy, the Sox will create a new position for him.

Since he has the best throwing arm, the analytics department is now going to convert Abreu to "Mound Thrower."

From now on, Wilyer will stand next to Red Sox pitchers, and whenever one wants to make a pick-off throw, they'll step off, flip him the ball, and only he gets to make a peg to a base. Abreu will also get to field and make corresponding throws on any bunts or comebackers. 

Fenway Park's mound has also been fitted with special restraining straps that will emerge from the rubber and pin down pitchers' arms, so they can no longer interfer on any ball in play. It was designed to be controlled by the manager, but MLB didn't trust Cora not to try to extend the straps and tie up batters, so they gave the remote to Bregman, who was smart enough in the past to let Cora take all the blame.

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

There are two VERY big differences between Abreu and Duran

1 - Duran is the best leadoff hitter since Mookie and Abreu doesn't have leadoff man skills.

2 - Duran hits for a higher average, has more speed on the bases and is a superior defender despite the GG that should have an asterisk next to it for going against such weak competition.

You are alone on the island believing that Abreu is a weaker defender than Duran. There is not a scout in baseball that thinks this. 

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

His OPS is .695 and it was over .700 a couple of days ago.  Point in time decisions over a guy who is 24 and is constantly improving?  Is that a knee-jerk reaction that doesn't allow a top prospect to develop?  Abreu is a platoon hitter, is that a serious organization move?  Carrying an extra player to make up for the issues with Abreu?  I don't get that logic.  

A couple days before that, it was close to 600. He hit 4 HR in 7 games and it spiked up. It won't last. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

10 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

I agree but I think if Cora is in Boston, Bregman will be in Boston and Cora will talk Breslow into the necessary extension.

Not if he's chasing rings and a contender offers him the right contract.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

You are alone on the island believing that Abreu is a weaker defender than Duran. There is not a scout in baseball that thinks this. 

If you say so.  Sounds like a gross exaggeration to make a point about how much you believe in him.

I've watched both Duran and Abreu play.  Abreu gets the YIPS when he runs back toward the fence in right field and when he has to run hard at the right field side fence.  I've watched him catch balls side saddle to avoid contact with the wall while guys like Rafaela are fearless.  I simply am not impressed with Abreu's defense, his defensive numbers or the way his average skills are portrayed.  He has a strong arm, he slides for balls in front of him well but when he reaches up for balls over his head to his left he loses sight of the ball because he brings the glove directly through his line of sight.  For me, those are things I have observed about players for many years.

If my comment does not agree with the organization hype, I am ok with it.  If scouts are not picking up on his shortcomings, then I'd go get some new scouts.