Article: Can Ceddanne Rafaela Emulate Pete Crow-Armstrong's Breakout?

[Maddie Landis]

Maybe I’m just a sucker for Garrett Popcorn, but I find myself frequently rooting for the Chicago Cubs because of center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. The Cubs are an offensive powerhouse, largely thanks to PCA (not to discredit Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki’s contributions). Crow- Armstrong’s breakout season has shown baseball fans that heavy swing-and-miss hitters can be successful, MVP-caliber players. 

Now, Crow-Armstrong is an anomaly. He flips back and forth with Seiya Suzuki for the most RBIs in baseball and leads the National League in stolen bases and WAR, but if you check his Baseball Savant page, you'll find a lot of blue. PCA and Ceddanne Rafaela initially profile similarly as speedy, Gold Glove-caliber center fielders with middling plate discipline. On one hand, PCA is an MVP candidate for the Cubs, who are likely making a deep postseason run in the fall. Meanwhile, Rafaela is the free-swinging, defense-first centerfielder for the underperforming Red Sox, who currently hold a 12.6% chance of making the playoffs. However, their Savant pages share striking similarities.

The primary difference between Crow-Armstrong and Rafaela ultimately boils down to launch angle and pull rate. Their batted ball profiles were nearly identical last season. This year? Not so much. Crow-Armstrong has a higher launch angle and pull rate, and a lower ground ball rate than Rafaela.

Player	Year	Barrel%	Launch Angle	GB/FB	GB%	Pull%	Pull GB%	Pull Air%
Pete Crow-Armstrong	2024	7.4	17.2	0.88	42.5	40.7	21.4	19.3
Ceddanne Rafaela	2024	7.5	14.9	1.14	42.5	37.2	20.1	17.1
Pete Crow-Armstrong	2025	13.6	23.3	0.48	27.8	44.3	14.8	29.5
Ceddanne Rafaela	2025	13.2	11.8	1.11	45.3	35.2	23.3	11.9

When Rafaela hits the ball in the opposite direction, it tends to result in an out (.337 xwOBA). The same goes for PCA (.299 xwOBA). Rafaela fares better when he pulls the ball — his xwOBA jumps to .422 in those events. Likewise, PCA’s xwOBA skyrockets to .592. Pulled balls typically result in higher exit velocities than balls hit to the opposite field, but Rafaela is an exception. His 39.4% opposite hard hit rate is 4.4% above the league average. (For pull-side balls, he holds a 51.9% hard hit rate.) As of late, he’s seen more success hitting the ball in the opposite direction. Given that Rafaela’s xwOBA split, exit velocity, and barrel rate are higher than PCA’s batted balls in the opposite direction, I think his overall offensive ceiling could be in the same stratosphere — he just needs to start pulling the ball more. 

Player	Batted Ball Direction	xWOBA	EV (MPH)	LA (°)	Hard Hit%	Barrle/PA%	Attack Angle	Swing Length
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Opposite	0.299	84.7	33	30.8	10.3	10°	7.1
Ceddanne Rafaela	Opposite	0.337	88.6	27	39.4	12.1	7°	7.2
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Pull	0.592	93.9	19	56.3	22.5	18°	7.4
Ceddanne Rafaela	Pull	0.422	93.2	4	51.9	9.6	15°	7.7

As Davy Andrews noted, “The point is that the further out you hit the ball, the more likely you are to pull the ball, because your bat will be angled toward the pull side.” Looking at Statcast’s new swing metrics, it’s apparent that PCA is making contact with the ball in front of the plate more than Rafaela. Since he’s attacking the ball earlier, his launch angle is higher, resulting in a higher pulled fly ball rate and fewer ground balls.

If Rafaela can make contact with the ball in front of the plate, he’ll pull the bar in the air more frequently and hit fewer ground balls. So, how does a player pull the bar in the air? Again, it ties to launch angle, but also swing length. Longer swing lengths correlate with higher pull rates, as batters must make contact with the ball in front of the plate to pull it. Rafaela has the second-longest swing length (7.5) on the Red Sox. His swing length is .3 ft longer than PCA’s, so he doesn’t have to alter his swing to pull the ball. By and large, when players hit the ball in front of the plate, their launch angle increases as they lift the ball on an upward trajectory (assuming they have an ideal swing path).

Image credit to Driveline

Rafaela’s lack of plate discipline could negatively affect his ability to hit the ball in front of the plate. Since last year, he’s made some strides at the plate. His strikeout rate is 19.2% (61st percentile), his whiff rate is 26.3% (38th percentile), and his walk rate is up to 4.7% (12th percentile). While his chase rate (46.4%, 2nd percentile) remains abysmal, he’s made some improvements to his swing decisions. Is there room to improve? Obviously, yes. Rafaela won’t turn into Juan Soto or Seiya Suzuki overnight, but if he can cut down his chase rate to at least around 35%, he’ll be in the same ballpark as Corbin Carroll and Julio Rodríguez.

I haven't even touched on Rafaela's elite defense. He's at the top of the leaderboards for various Statcast fielding metrics, including fielding run value (2nd), arm strength (11th), and outs above average (5th). These rankings include other position players; if you separate these metrics by positional split, Rafaela is undoubtedly the best center fielder in the American League. Watch his rookie season defensive highlights. Rafaela was shifted to the infield during his rookie season, so his defensive prowess in center field wasn't fully realized. As a rookie playing out of his natural position, his bat suffered at second base, slashing .059/.059/.059, -86 wRC+ in eight games. It was average at shortstop with a .261/.269/.470, 101 wRC+ slash line across 81 games. Defensively, he was one of the worst defensive shortstops in the league, posting negative seven outs above average. To Rafaela's credit, he handled being moved out of position gracefully. Having him play center field regularly this year, though, is helping his bat.

Ceddanne Rafaela can be a controversial player for Red Sox fans. Roman Anthony, baseball’s number one prospect, has been knocking at the door with a battering ram, and Rafaela is on a short leash for some. Until writing this article, I thought Rafaela should be benched for Anthony. Time is ticking for someone other than Rafael Devers or Alex Bregman to step up and help carry the team’s offense. If Rafaela can be like PCA, I’d rather keep him and try to move Wilyer Abreu. An outfield with Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, and Ceddanne Rafaela is more competitive than one with Abreu, who remains a streaky platoon player in his sophomore season. Anthony and Rafaela complement each other — Rafaela could help Anthony improve his defense, and Anthony can teach Rafaela a thing or two about plate discipline.

June and July will be telling months for Rafaela's career. He’s dealt with bad luck this year and has recently shown signs of turning a corner. Since June 1st, he’s slashed .433/.433/.867 with four home runs and six RBIs. In the Angels series, he hit three of these home runs, including a two-run walk-off shot. If Ceddanne Rafaela can put everything together, he'll become a household name like Pete Crow-Armstrong.

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[mvp 78]

Ceddanne has always been a 40%+ GB guy. PCA seemed to make some adjustments to reduce his GB rate, but we haven't seen much out of Rafaela to show that he's coachable TBH. He also doesn't have the pull stroke that PCA has. While some metrics make it appear that they are similar, they really aren't the same offensive profile. I've seen this mentioned a few times elsewhere, but I don't get it. 

PCA 29.1% Pull Air (10th in MLB)

Rafaela 12.3% Pull Air (211th in MLB out of 254)

I just don't see Ceddanne having any chance of breaking out like PCA. It's also not entirely fair to put that on him. If he got to 750 OPS, we should all be doing cartwheels. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Ceddanne has always been a 40%+ GB guy. PCA seemed to make some adjustments to reduce his GB rate, but we haven't seen much out of Rafaela to show that he's coachable TBH. He also doesn't have the pull stroke that PCA has. While some metrics make it appear that they are similar, they really aren't the same offensive profile. I've seen this mentioned a few times elsewhere, but I don't get it. 

PCA 29.1% Pull Air (10th in MLB)

Rafaela 12.3% Pull Air (211th in MLB out of 254)

Rafaela may not match Crow-Armstrong pulling the ball in the air, but what's Ceddanne's swing percentage of pulling his head on the first pitch?

TV Viewers Watching CR try to pull the first pitch of every at bat (including fans out mowing the lawn or weeding the garden who missed one of his ABs): Kajillion Percent.

[sk7326]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Ceddanne has always been a 40%+ GB guy. PCA seemed to make some adjustments to reduce his GB rate, but we haven't seen much out of Rafaela to show that he's coachable TBH. He also doesn't have the pull stroke that PCA has. While some metrics make it appear that they are similar, they really aren't the same offensive profile. I've seen this mentioned a few times elsewhere, but I don't get it. 

PCA 29.1% Pull Air (10th in MLB)

Rafaela 12.3% Pull Air (211th in MLB out of 254)

I just don't see Ceddanne having any chance of breaking out like PCA. It's also not entirely fair to put that on him. If he got to 750 OPS, we should all be doing cartwheels. 

This is about right.  And - right now he is on a 5 win pace in bWAR!  His bat will always be frustrating ... but right now his OPS is up to .707 and his OBP is almost at .300.  He only has to improve on this a little bit to be one of the league's better all-around center fielders given the defense and power.  

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

This is about right.  And - right now he is on a 5 win pace in bWAR!  His bat will always be frustrating ... but right now his OPS is up to .707 and his OBP is almost at .300.  He only has to improve on this a little bit to be one of the league's better all-around center fielders given the defense and power.  

At 600, it was a question on how much he could stay in the lineup. I think it was a fair question too. JBJ's worst hitting season (fulltime in BOS) was 717 to put Ceddanne in perspective. We hated his wild swings in production on here. I think we've been very patient with Rafaela in comparison. If that's around where Ceddanne is, I think we can live with it. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Ceddanne has always been a 40%+ GB guy. PCA seemed to make some adjustments to reduce his GB rate, but we haven't seen much out of Rafaela to show that he's coachable TBH. He also doesn't have the pull stroke that PCA has. While some metrics make it appear that they are similar, they really aren't the same offensive profile. I've seen this mentioned a few times elsewhere, but I don't get it. 

PCA 29.1% Pull Air (10th in MLB)

Rafaela 12.3% Pull Air (211th in MLB out of 254)

I just don't see Ceddanne having any chance of breaking out like PCA. It's also not entirely fair to put that on him. If he got to 750 OPS, we should all be doing cartwheels. 

PCA is an early candidate for NL MVP.  I agree thats too much to expect from Ceddanne…

[TedYazPapiMookie]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

At 600, it was a question on how much he could stay in the lineup. I think it was a fair question too. JBJ's worst hitting season (fulltime in BOS) was 717 to put Ceddanne in perspective. We hated his wild swings in production on here. I think we've been very patient with Rafaela in comparison. If that's around where Ceddanne is, I think we can live with it. 

JBJ started his career with an OPS of .617 and .531 then at age 25 he jumped it to .832 and for 6 consecutive seasons he was in the .700s or .800s (3 each) then for 5 seasons he never exceeded .578.

Rafaela had .666 in 28 games and then last year was at .664 so he's starting above JBJ's initial level.  This year Rafaela is 24 and is at .707 right now.  This suggests he's likely to exceed JBJ in hitting and they both are stellar defensive players. 

JBJ and Rafaela both had small negative defensive runs saved in their partial year then in year 2 JBJ's DRS was 16 to Rafaela's 12 and in year 3 JBJs fell to 8 and Rafaela's is currently at 11 about halfway through the season.   JJB finished his 11 year career at 77 and Rafaela has 23 DRS in a partial season, full season and half season so less than two full seasons.  JBJ averaged 7 DRS and right now Rafaela is averaging over 10.

Since JBJ was one of the best defensive centerfielders of all time, for Rafaela to be producing even better defensive metrics by year 2 is a real positive.  Not everyone can hit like Trout as a CF but Rafaela has produced a LOT of runs and rbis out of the 9 hole.  Who knows what he could do if Cora liked him as much as Abreu and batted him in the part of the order that is supposed to be the most productive.

 

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

At 600, it was a question on how much he could stay in the lineup. I think it was a fair question too. JBJ's worst hitting season (fulltime in BOS) was 717 to put Ceddanne in perspective. We hated his wild swings in production on here. I think we've been very patient with Rafaela in comparison. If that's around where Ceddanne is, I think we can live with it. 

 

[mvp 78]

What metrics of Rafaela's are better than JBJ's? Certainly not the fielding percentage you keep posting about. DRS? OAA? What's your go to? 

[Bellhorn04]

26 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Not everyone can hit like Trout as a CF but Rafaela has produced a LOT of runs and rbis out of the 9 hole.  Who knows what he could do if Cora liked him as much as Abreu and batted him in the part of the order that is supposed to be the most productive.

Your post was good until the obligatory Cora crucifixion part, which once again seems totally gratuitous.  You're criticizing for batting Abreu higher in the order than Rafaela?

[drewski6]

Keeping your bat through the zone while meeting the ball out in front is very very tough.  The reason why PCA can do it is because his pitch recognition is better, so he can swing a fraction earlier and still get good wood. You get natural launch when you are slightly out in front w good contact. Cedanne doesnt have this skill and its why he goes oppo more (more time to read the pitch).

Its not a minor tweak to make Cedanne PCA. PCA might not even stay PCA.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Keeping your bat through the zone while meeting the ball out in front is very very tough.  The reason why PCA can do it is because his pitch recognition is better, so he can swing a fraction earlier and still get good wood. You get natural launch when you are slightly out in front w good contact. Cedanne doesnt have this skill and its why he goes oppo more (more time to read the pitch).

Its not a minor tweak to make Cedanne PCA. PCA might not even stay PCA.

PCA was a 1st round high schooler who has had a high SLG every year and was a top 20 prospect. His ceiling is multi-MVP award winner.

Rafaela got a 10k signing bonus. His ceiling is going to the All Star Game. 

It's not fair to compare these two. 

[moonslav59]

Good read. We have to consider Rafaela as a "streaky hitter" like Abreu, but with many more cold stretches. Right now, he's over .700, and we are all thrilled to see this.

.700 for a GG caliber CF'er is fine, but Abreu has been around .800 with an actual GG to his name. (Rafaela is better on D.)

Thanks for this.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

I had to do a double-take to see if this article was originally published in The Onion or The Babylon Bee.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I had to do a double-take to see if this article was originally published in The Onion or The Babylon Bee.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6402751/2025/06/05/could-ceddanne-rafaela-be-the-next-pete-crow-armstrong-the-red-sox-hope-so/

https://sports.yahoo.com/article/red-sox-outfielder-ceddanne-rafaela-221529991.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGDWEU-qZs8nbGRyfPZAJENG8OCrUulfuTazNtHLycI7GuQH5Kcbo-O6KKkqfNGoZEVRIyYqyEDAOCjrbi3l296mYQAkVUFKr9C7e5tVWvU5KP6bjlF9QSmVz6DIlUIQOSQUVFQZbioHMT_zCg_O8TifSs_KhHeURIBF4xHhkJOf

It's a comparison that has been out there this past week or so. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6402751/2025/06/05/could-ceddanne-rafaela-be-the-next-pete-crow-armstrong-the-red-sox-hope-so/

https://sports.yahoo.com/article/red-sox-outfielder-ceddanne-rafaela-221529991.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGDWEU-qZs8nbGRyfPZAJENG8OCrUulfuTazNtHLycI7GuQH5Kcbo-O6KKkqfNGoZEVRIyYqyEDAOCjrbi3l296mYQAkVUFKr9C7e5tVWvU5KP6bjlF9QSmVz6DIlUIQOSQUVFQZbioHMT_zCg_O8TifSs_KhHeURIBF4xHhkJOf

It's a comparison that has been out there this past week or so. 

I wouldn't line the bottom of my bird cage with the NY Times

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I wouldn't line the bottom of my bird cage with the NY Times

Ok? I didn't see the Rafaela/PCA story in the Weekly World News when I searched for it. The Athletic is a part of NYT now, so that's why a lot of stories are posted there for better or worse. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

6 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Your post was good until the obligatory Cora crucifixion part, which once again seems totally gratuitous.  You're criticizing for batting Abreu higher in the order than Rafaela?

That is my opinion based on the productivity of Rafaela in 2024 and 2025 compared to the favored Abreu how bats in meat of the order.  I don't believe a REAL manager would have shown the bias. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

What metrics of Rafaela's are better than JBJ's? Certainly not the fielding percentage you keep posting about. DRS? OAA? What's your go to? 

Sorry, did you not read what I wrote.  DRS was used so metrics guys like you could relate to it.  You dismiss the superior stat fielding percentage for the DRS estimate.

Rafaela at 22 had 0 errors at CF (1.000/24 TC) and 1 at SS and JBJ did play until 23

Rafaela at 23 had 3 errors at CF (.984/186 TC) and 9 at SS and JBJ had one in LF (.997/42 TC)

Rafaela at 24 (2025 partial season) has 3 at CF (.980/147 TC) and JBJ had one in CF (307) 

So we are comparing a guy who Cora has made a utility player to a guy dedicated to CF at age 24

If you are admitting FPCT is the correct stat, then I agree JBJ has performed better through his 24-year-old season.  I you use DRS then Rafaela has better performance numbers based on the DRS estimate.

Bottomline, if DRS is estimate of choice what I said is correct.  So are you admitting fielding percentage is more accurate and therefore JBJ was better 2 years into his career?

[TedYazPapiMookie]

14 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Your post was good until the obligatory Cora crucifixion part, which once again seems totally gratuitous.  You're criticizing for batting Abreu higher in the order than Rafaela?

I'm criticizing Cora for not being open minded about Rafaela.  In 2023 Rafaela hit .264 when batting in the #1, #2 and #3 spots in the order and in 2024 he got just 9 at bats in the top 2 spots (0 at #3).  That suggests to me he got pigeon-holed by Cora. 

In 2023, Abreu hit .200 when batting in the #1, #2 and #3 spots yet he got 202 at bats in the first 3 spots in 2024 while Rafaela got 9!!  Abreu in 2024 hit .252 in the top three spots so the opportunity he got paid off but why didn't Rafaela at least get a shot at proving himself?  9 at bats after 70 the year before hitting 64 points higher than Abreu?  Rafaela got robbed of his chance to prove himself.  Equality in opportunities should be the Red Sox policy but that's never been the case under Cora.  Just one more reason I have issues with Cora. 

Handing Abreu a job without a competition among the two players is my issue.  Rafaela had a better minor league career and a better 2023 at the MLB level while hitting in the 1-3 spots in the order.  We don't know how good Rafaela could have been in the #2 spot in the line-up behind Duran.  I feel he should have gotten a chance and if he failed, I would have no issue with moving him down in the order.

I find it hard to believe fans don't want a fair selection process where a player EARNS his position.  Clearly, Abreu hit well enough to bat in the top of the order on such a weak offensive team but who is to say Rafaela might not have produced more considering how many RBIs and Runs he had out of the 9 hole.