Trevor Story

[king koji]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm the guy who thinks Bregman isn't opting out.  I think he likes playing for Alex Cora and he has to like the direction the Red Sox are moving in.

Bregman is not opting out. But even if he does (which means he had a killer season) Sox are re-signing him.

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Bregman opts out:

Story SS

Campbell 2B

Mayer 3B

If Bregman stays:

Mayer SS

Campbell 2B

Bregman 3B

Story UTIL

I don't think you lose much defensively either way. 

If, if, if. What if Mayer gets included in a deal for more young pitching like Crochet. It’s not out of the realm of possibility to me. I’ve said all along the Red Sox would not sign any FA pitchers to big-long term contracts, and would trade suspects like they did with Teel to get some. Someone will get traded IMO.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

22 minutes ago, king koji said:

 Sox are re-signing him.

Maybe, maybe not.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

story's contract has a chance to make ellsbury's contract with the Yankees look like a bargain.

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm the guy who thinks Bregman isn't opting out.  I think he likes playing for Alex Cora and he has to like the direction the Red Sox are moving in.

I don't want him to, just bracing for the possibility.

[Hitch]

3 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

story's contract has a chance to make ellsbury's contract with the Yankees look like a bargain.

He would have to be near useless for the remainder to be that bad I think.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

story's contract has a chance to make ellsbury's contract with the Yankees look like a bargain.

Not really.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

story's contract has a chance to make ellsbury's contract with the Yankees look like a bargain.

Ellsbury: 7/153, provided 62.7M value per FanGraphs.

Story: 6/140, provided 27.1M with about 3 years to go. He needs to be a 4.7 fWAR guy for the next 3 seasons to fully earn the contract. If he provides anything more than 1.5 fWAR per season over the next 3 seasons, it's better than what Ellsbury did. If he had played like '22 and never got hurt, the contract would have been fine. 

[notin]

48 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I love arguments like this because you can just make up a bunch of stuff an go with it for whatever reason. He's always been a clubhouse leader, but now we can automatically assume he'll just be a pain in the butt! Classic. 

It’s a possibility.  Let’s not pretend any of us know him. Sure, he’s always been a good clubhouse guy, but he’s also always been a starter…

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s a possibility.  Let’s not pretend any of us know him. Sure, he’s always been a good clubhouse guy, but he’s also always been a starter…

Please continue down this road and live in an alternate reality. The only place he has shown himself to be a selfish player is inside your own head. 🫠

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Ellsbury: 7/153, provided 62.7M value per FanGraphs.

Story: 6/140, provided 27.1M with about 3 years to go. He needs to be a 4.7 fWAR guy for the next 3 seasons to fully earn the contract. If he provides anything more than 1.5 fWAR per season over the next 3 seasons, it's better than what Ellsbury did. If he had played like '22 and never got hurt, the contract would have been fine. 

If it hadn't been for the bullet, JFK would have enjoyed a nice afternoon ride in a convertible.

story has averaged 1 WAR per season with the sox (per Baseball Reference). Not sure that's going to get any better.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

25 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not really.

Yes, really.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Not sure Story has the arm for it. I know his velo is up a little, but I think he's a 2B/SS.

Story still has plus range, so 2B does seem better than 3B, IMO.

What are your views on Campbell at 3B?

We could also see Campbell in the OF with Mayer at SS and Story at 2B.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

29 minutes ago, Hitch said:

He would have to be near useless for the remainder to be that bad I think.

As per Baseball Reference, ellsbury was worth 9.6 WAR while with the Yanks and story 4.0 WAR with the sox. Both over 4 seasons.

story would have to more than match his previous production to get to that number over the remainder of his contract.

 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

 I think he likes playing for Alex Cora 

Based on what?

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm the guy who thinks Bregman isn't opting out.  I think he likes playing for Alex Cora and he has to like the direction the Red Sox are moving in.

I agree, I think Bergman is here for 3 years! 
 

But we still got 155 games to play this year,  I think the infield lineup is set this year, and with Mayer, Hamilton and romy, I feel the depth is legitimate.  Props to bres-slow  because I am not sure I could have said that last year!!!  

[Hitch]

4 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

As per Baseball Reference, ellsbury was worth 9.6 WAR while with the Yanks and story 4.0 WAR with the sox. Both over 4 seasons.

story would have to more than match his previous production to get to that number over the remainder of his contract.

 

Sure but he's hardly played. If this continues, then yes, he's a big as bust. If he plays it'll be merely disappointing. 

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, Larry Cook said:

I agree, I think Bergman is here for 3 years! 
 

But we still got 155 games to play this year,  I think the infield lineup is set this year, and with Mayer, Hamilton and romy, I feel the depth is legitimate.  Props to bres-slow  because I am not sure I could have said that last year!!!  

I get exhausted just thinking about your continued need to type bres-slow.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Story still has plus range, so 2B does seem better than 3B, IMO.

What are your views on Campbell at 3B?

We could also see Campbell in the OF with Mayer at SS and Story at 2B.

He's got the arm for 2B/LF. I don't think Campbell is a 3B at the moment. Maybe he is eventually moved to LF fulltime when Duran leaves in FA, but I think he's at 2B for a few years, at least that's where I'd have him.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

Sure but he's hardly played. If this continues, then yes, he's a big as bust. If he plays it'll be merely disappointing. 

Right. My point was the one year he played, he was ok. Didn't live up to the contract, but wasn't an embarrassment. If he finds a way to stay healthy going forward, it should be better than the Ellsbury contract. If he has another significant injury, it's the Ellsbury contract or worse potentially.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

As per Baseball Reference, ellsbury was worth 9.6 WAR while with the Yanks and story 4.0 WAR with the sox. Both over 4 seasons.

story would have to more than match his previous production to get to that number over the remainder of his contract.

Story has played a full 4 seasons already? That's news to me. 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Based on what?

At their core, Bregman feels he and Cora are incredibly similar.

“I feel like A.C. loves baseball as much as I do,” Bregman told reporters during his introductory press conference Sunday morning in Fort Myers, Fla, per team-provided video. “He wakes up every single day and wants to win. He is a hard worker, a competitor, just a baseball guy. And so am I and I think that’s why we get along.”

“He caught my attention in 2017. And throughout the years, he keeps evolving, he keeps getting better,” Cora told reporters, per team-provided video. “The most important thing: he wants to win. That’s it. For him, it’s his family, his baseball and winning. And I’m excited to have him here now.”

[mvp 78]

“He (Bregman) was like, ‘I signed with the freaking Red Sox,'” Cora said. “I was like, ‘What?’ because I gave up, you know? He was like, ‘Yeah, I signed with the freaking Red Sox,’ and he showed me (son) Knox with the hat of the Red Sox. Then he tells me (wife) Reagan is going to go to Harvard. I was like, ‘Man, you guys played us well. You guys did a good job.'”

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

“He caught my attention in 2017. And throughout the years, he keeps evolving, he keeps getting better,” Cora told reporters, per team-provided video. “The most important thing: he wants to win. That’s it. For him, it’s his family, his baseball and winning. And I’m excited to have him here now.”

team-provided video? Like from Houston's analytics department, when they created the sign-stealing system that got them all promoted -- and their manager and coaches suspended for using it.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

If it hadn't been for the bullet, JFK would have enjoyed a nice afternoon ride in a convertible.

story has averaged 1 WAR per season with the sox (per Baseball Reference). Not sure that's going to get any better.

The lost time due to injuries is a big part of that, and maybe he keeps getting hurt. Many of his PAs with the Sox have come while returning from long times off. I'm not sure we use those numbers as projections of what he will do, if he has a 500+ PA season.

I hope we get to see it happen.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Yes, really.

Nope, nothing can make Ellsbury's contract look like a bargain.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

As per Baseball Reference, ellsbury was worth 9.6 WAR while with the Yanks and story 4.0 WAR with the sox. Both over 4 seasons.

Except Ellsbury's contract was 7 years and Story's 4th year just started.

Aside from that, great math work.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Story still has plus range, so 2B does seem better than 3B, IMO.

What are your views on Campbell at 3B?

We could also see Campbell in the OF with Mayer at SS and Story at 2B.

How do you know Story would still have plus range at 2B? Last time he played there was three years ago when the shift was a big thing, and he spent a good part of the time in short RF. Story is not going to be moved off SS anytime soon IMO unless there is an injury, and even then Mayer could be injured before that. It’s only 7 games into the season, and I don’t think the Red Sox are even thinking about making any roster changes No matter how good Mayer, or Anthony may do at Woo. I know these suspects are like money that’s burning a hole in your pockets, and they just have to be in Boston. They are fine right where they are IMO especially after just 7 games into the season. NOBODY should be untouchable, and sooner than later some trades will have to be made to get more pitching IMO.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

How do you know Story would still have plus range at 2B? Last time he played there was three years ago when the shift was a big thing, and he spent a good part of the time in short RF. 

Sprint Speed:

2025: 28.1 (7 SB in last 23 G).

2022: 28.4

I don't think we are concerned about his range at the moment. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

38 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Except Ellsbury's contract was 7 years and Story's 4th year just started.

Aside from that, great math work.

Well, ellsbury only played for 4 seasons of his contract.

So my math is correct.