Article: The Red Sox Offense Is Finally Balanced, but Is It Better?

[Davy Andrews]

The Red Sox brought in Alex Bregman and promoted Kristian Campbell, so the lineup isn't lefty-heavy anymore. But is it as good?

On Friday, I examined the ways that the Opening Day lineup the Red Sox settled on affected the team’s defense. Today, I’m going to talk about the offense. And while the offense should be a bit better – that tends to happen when you add Alex Bregman and Kristian Campbell – but that’s not the biggest takeaway. Are you ready for the biggest takeaway?

The Offense Is Finally Balanced
We spent so much time during the offseason – way, way too much time – worrying about the fact that the Red Sox were too left-handed. Now that the team has found its right-handed power bat in Alex Bregman, and now that we know for sure that Kristian Campbell will be starting at second base rather than the left-handed hitting David Hamilton, we’ve just added two right-handed bats. Assuming that Wilyer Abreu platoons with Rob Refsnyder in right field as expected — so far, Abreu has gotten every start, as the team hasn't faced a lefty — that means the team will have five lefties in the lineup when a righty pitches, and five righties in the lineup when a lefty pitches. Sounds pretty balanced to me! Here's a bigger question, though:

Is the Lineup Better?
The answer isn’t as much of a slam dunk as you’d think. Alex Bregman is a great hitter, but by shifting Rafael Devers to DH, he basically took Masataka Yoshida’s spot, and over his two seasons in Boston, Yoshida has a 112 wRC+. Over the same timeframe, Bregman has a 122 wRC+. Last season, Yoshida came in at 115 and Bregman at 118. There’s always a chance he’ll put up a vintage Bregman season, knocking 30 homers over the Green Monster with a 145 wRC+, but we probably shouldn’t expect that of him. Most likely, he’s an improvement, but not a huge one. 

The bigger improvements should come at first and second base. In 2024, the Red Sox ran a 103 wRC+ at first base, which ranked 20th in baseball. That was because Triston Casas missed nearly 100 games, and he wasn’t all the way back to 100% when he did play. A healthy Casas would push the Red Sox from the bottom half of the league to the top half at first base.

At second base, the Red Sox ran a shockingly low 45 wRC+ in 2024. That was worst in baseball by a mile. I cannot begin to express to you how bad that is. According to FanGraphs, Boston’s second basemen cost the team 38 runs on offense. No other team was even below 25 runs. Kristian Campbell is a rookie, and he might really struggle for a while, but he’s definitely not going to be that bad. The projection systems uniformly see him as a solidly above-average hitter, but even if he’s just somewhere slightly below average, that will constitute an enormous improvement.

I suspect the Red Sox will take a small step back at shortstop. In 2024, Boston’s shortstops ran a 108 wRC+, 12th-best in baseball. For some reason, David Hamilton, Nick Sogard, Romy Gonzalez, and Ceddanne Rafaela all hit much better when they were playing shortstop than when they played anywhere else. Seriously, it’s freaky.

Name	Shortstop	Elsewhere	Difference
Nick Sogard	168	60	+108
David Hamilton	118	76	+42
Romy Gonzalez	117	94	+23
Ceddanne Rafaela	101	68	+33

That’s just plain random chance, but it ended up giving the Red Sox excellent offense at shortstop. We definitely shouldn’t expect Trevor Story to put up a 108 wRC+. The last time he put up a solidly above-average season at the plate was the 2020 season. Since then, he’s missed a lot of time, of course, but when he’s been on the field, he’s run a 92 wRC+. I don’t think we can hope for much more than a league-average bat from Story. If he combines that with league-average performance at short, that still makes him a valuable piece, but it seems unreasonable to ask for more. 

Catcher is a real danger zone. Connor Wong ran some extremely unsustainable numbers last season, getting a lot of batted ball luck. He almost certainly won’t hit that well again, and behind him, we really have no idea what to expect offensively from Carlos Narváez. Narváez has never hit particularly well in the minors, and the projection systems see him with a wRC+ in the 70 to 80 range. The team can survive that if his defense is as fantastic as advertised, but the Red Sox are almost certainly going to take a step back offensively in the catcher spot.

We should also expect some major regression from Jarren Duran, Abreu, and Refsnyder. Duran had an incredible breakout season and his recognition as an MVP candidate was well-deserved, Abreu had an incredible rookie campaign, and Refsnyder really seemed to figure things out at the plate. However, all three players put up some really unexpected numbers, and when that happens, people usually come back down to earth the next season. That’s not an immutable law; it’s certainly possible that they’ll keep right on hitting, but expecting two or three of them to do so really seems like too much to ask.

So far the Red Sox have just a 66 wRC+, and a .194 batting average, but as they're just four games into the season, it's way too early to start worrying. It's extremely encouraging that Abreu and Campbell have gotten off to such hot starts. Although Devers is struggling mightily, he's one of the best hitters in baseball. He'll figure it out. In all, the Red Sox scored 751 runs last season, or 4.64 per game. FanGraphs’ projections see them scoring 747 runs this season, or 4.61 per game. The infield should hit better, but catcher and outfield should see big steps back. Basically, after all this offseason work, the Red Sox have ended up with an offense that projects to be just about identical to last year’s. But hey, at least the lineup is finally balanced!

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[mvp 78]

If Story is going to be worse offensively than a platoon of Romy/Hamilton, it's time to DFA. I think he should be better. Will he be? 

Right now, it's hard for me to just say "Devers will figure it out" when he's been dreadful since the shoulder issues started last August. He's a great hitter WHEN HEALTHY. I just don't know if he's able to play at his normal level. If he is healthy, then he should figure it out. However, I'm going to remain skeptical about anything concerning Devers' health until he's shown that he's feeling great and is really swinging it. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the Red Sox could just play in Mexico vs. pitchers not good enough for the majors, they'd score at least 10 runs a game.

[Hitch]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If the Red Sox could just play in Mexico vs. pitchers not good enough for the majors, they'd score at least 10 runs a game.

If the Yankees can change their bats, I don't see why we can't try and sneak this one through. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hitch said:

If the Yankees can change their bats, I don't see why we can't try and sneak this one through. 

If the Red Sox proposed a bat change, you know it would have been turned down.

[Old Red]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Story is going to be worse offensively than a platoon of Romy/Hamilton, it's time to DFA. I think he should be. Will he be? 

Right now, it's hard for me to just say "Devers will figure it out" when he's been dreadful since the shoulder issues started last August. He's a great hitter WHEN HEALTHY. I just don't know if he's able to play at his normal level. If he is healthy, then he should figure it out. However, I'm going to remain skeptical about anything concerning Devers' health until he's shown that he's feeling great and is really swinging it. 

After only 4 games you’re calling for Story to be DFA if he doesn’t pick things up? Wow! Might as well DFA Casas, and Raffy too. It’s just inconceivable to you, and others that Raffy is just all out of sync at the plate, and it just has to be he’s hurt.🙈

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, Old Red said:

After only 4 games you’re calling for Story to be DFA if he doesn’t pick things up? Wow! Might as well DFA Casas, and Raffy too. It’s just inconceivable to you, and others that Raffy is just all out of sync at the plate, and it just has to be he’s hurt.🙈

Reading comprehension. The SS platoon they used last year had a 108 wRC+. The expectations are that Story can't do that. If those are really the expectations, the Sox should have moved on from him already. That is clearly not my belief. I think he should be better than last year, but this article posits that he won't be. 

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Reading comprehension. The SS platoon they used last year had a 108 wRC+. The expectations are that Story can't do that. If those are really the expectations, the Sox should have moved on from him already. That is clearly not my belief. I think he should be better than last year, but this article posits that he won't be. 

I’ve said before that Story left his best bat back in Colorado, and most likely his D isn’t as good as it once was either, but as little as Story has played the past three years how don’t see how anyone can put any realistic expectations out there. As with Yoshida his contract complicates things.

[Bellhorn04]

54 minutes ago, Old Red said:

After only 4 games you’re calling for Story to be DFA if he doesn’t pick things up? Wow! Might as well DFA Casas, and Raffy too. It’s just inconceivable to you, and others that Raffy is just all out of sync at the plate, and it just has to be he’s hurt.🙈

It could be either or a combo, but the thing is, he has never ever looked anywhere near this bad.

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It could be either or a combo, but the thing is, he has never ever looked anywhere near this bad.

Weight, mechanics, shoulders, being the DH?

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It could be either or a combo, but the thing is, he has never ever looked anywhere near this bad.

Trevor Story's bat speed is UP and his k rate is DOWN! He's swinging at pitches in the zone (87%) and not whiffing (20.6%). If anything, Story is the SSS alert. 

[Maxbialystock]

I like a balanced lineup. 

For example, lefty bat Abreu has 15 total bases and an OPS of 2.300 and righty bat Campbell has 11 TB and an OPS of 1.286.  They have played a combined 168 MLB games and are paid minimum MLB wage.  

The unbalanced part is that everyone else--just 4 games, granted--stinks.  But ain't it nice that those seven stinkers include three lefty bats (Devers, Casas, and Duran) and four righty bats (Bregman, Story, Rafaela, and Wong)?  

The article/analysis at the top is over my head.  

[moonslav59]

By season's end, I think we will have better offensive numbers than 2024.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

By season's end, I think we will have better offensive numbers than 2014.

I'm hoping by the end of April TBH. It shouldn't take that long to beat 89 wRC+.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm hoping by the end of April TBH. It shouldn't take that long to beat 89 wRC+.

The Sox had a 104 wRC+ in 2024.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Sox had a 104 wRC+ in 2024.

You wrote 2014 in the original post.

I think they can replicate 2024 by year's end as well.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You wrote 2014 in the original post.

I think they can replicate 2024 by year's end as well.

Ooops.

[Bellhorn04]

Fire the hitting coaches.  I think the hitters are following Dillon Lawson's "swing hard in case you hit it"* approach, the one that got him fired from the Yanks.   

* It's actually "hit strikes hard", but it looks more like what I said.  

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Fire the hitting coaches.  I think the hitters are following Dillon Lawson's "swing hard in case you hit it"* approach, the one that got him fired from the Yanks.   

* It's actually "hit strikes hard", but it looks more like what I said.  

Is this approach any different than last year when they struck out a crap ton? 

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is this approach any different than last year when they struck out a crap ton? 

No.  When they hired Lawson last year (or in December/23) it sent a chill through me.  Like I say the big beef when he was with the Yankees, and it was a very loud beef, was that they had become a home run or strikeout type offense, swinging out of their shoes.  I thought this was a guy to stay far far away from.     

The Yanks fired him mid-season, which is pretty rare with a hitting coach.

I'm probably blaming too much on this one guy, but the fact they hired him and then promoted him indicates that there's something in his approach they're buying into.  I don't get it.

[Duran Is The Man]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No.  When they hired Lawson last year (or in December/23) it sent a chill through me.  Like I say the big beef when he was with the Yankees, and it was a very loud beef, was that they had become a home run or strikeout type offense, swinging out of their shoes.  I thought this was a guy to stay far far away from.     

I'm probably blaming too much on this one guy, but the fact they hired him and then promoted him indicates that there's something in his approach they're buying into.  I don't get it.

the Sox are 23rd in avg., 22nd in HR (with 3, LOL) and 24th in OPS. i'm sure the Yankees think he's doing a helluva job.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No.  When they hired Lawson last year (or in December/23) it sent a chill through me.  Like I say the big beef when he was with the Yankees, and it was a very loud beef, was that they had become a home run or strikeout type offense, swinging out of their shoes.  I thought this was a guy to stay far far away from.     

The Yanks fired him mid-season, which is pretty rare with a hitting coach.

I'm probably blaming too much on this one guy, but the fact they hired him and then promoted him indicates that there's something in his approach they're buying into.  I don't get it.

The Yankees ended the year 22nd in k% (same ranking they were the day he was fired), Sox were 3rd. Can't blame this on him IMO.

[mvp 78]

The Yanks were 4th in wRC+ on the day he was fired.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Yankees ended the year 22nd in k% (same ranking they were the day he was fired), Sox were 3rd. Can't blame this on him IMO.

But what did the Sox see in his approach that they liked when the Yanks came to hate it?

The Sox were 18th in Ks in 2023.  They were 3rd in 2024.  So far in 2025 they're averaging 11 per game.

   

[Bellhorn04]

I just have the feeling that the philosophy has turned toward one of "strikeouts are not such bad things".

Casas might be a good example to watch.  This is a guy whose patient plate approach was lauded when he first came up.

2022 K/BB 23/19 ratio 1.21

2023 126/70 ratio 1.8

2024 77/30 ratio 2.57

2025 7/1 ratio 7

Maybe I'm grasping at straws here, I don't know...

 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But what did the Sox see in his approach that they liked when the Yanks came to hate it?

The Sox were 18th in Ks in 2023.  They were 3rd in 2024.  So far in 2025 they're averaging 11 per game.

The Sox looked at how good the hitters were doing for the Yankees and how horrible the Sox were doing for Fatse. 

[mvp 78]

Again, it's probably a combination of roster construction and coaching, but mainly roster construction.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Again, it's probably a combination of roster construction and coaching, but mainly roster construction.

Why can't ex-Yankee coaches come to Boston and construct more batters that are 6 foot-7 who weigh 282 pounds? 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Why can't ex-Yankee coaches come to Boston and construct more batters that are 6 foot-7 who weigh 282 pounds? 

They were also able to turn Jazz around.