A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

He wont stay a DH. Hes a better defender than Soto

Career -11 OAA at age 23 says he's probably destined for DH sooner than later. 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

And fans in Washington would freak if Toboni came in and traded Wood -- even for Boston's Big Three...

... and fans in Boston would freak if Breslow traded a haul of org-hyped future for one freak.

thats fair

[Maxbialystock]

On 9/24/2025 at 8:39 AM, mvp 78 said:

“Being around him a little bit, you can see he’s getting more comfortable,” Breslow said of Anthony, per MassLive’s Chris Smith. “When it first happened, you could look at him and tell that he was in quite a bit of discomfort and pain. That has subsided, but there’s still quite a bit of room to get to in terms of baseball activities.”

Considering Anthony hasn’t even started baseball activities, that four-week recovery timeline might be pushing for the star outfielder — given that Boston could be playing in the Wild-Card round in less than a week. 

“Making progress,” Breslow said of Anthony. “Getting a little more comfortable every day. But it’s an injury that we knew would take some time to heal and get back on the field. He and medical staff are working as hard as they can to try to accelerate the timeline to make that possible.”

 

Remember, Cora told Anthony to envision and ALCS first AB. 

Cora had it right.  

[moonslav59]

Okay, I'm cherry-picking the 200+ PAs cut off, but here we go...

MLB OPS Leaders with 200+ PAs

1.136 Judge (203 pts better than the next AL guy!)

1.009 Ohtani

.993 Kurtz (Brandon Lowe is 203 pts below him at .790!)

.959 Raleigh

.946 Schwarber (Sox target this winter?)

Sox players, ex Sox players or possible targets....

14. K Marte .884

17. Alosno .867

21. Anthony .859

23. Refsnyder .854 (Why retire?)

24. Tucker .854

27. Y Dias .851

34. Devers .844

36. Romy .840

42. Suarez .832

50. Bregman .826

62. Naylor .809

66. Teel .805

74. Abreu .800

76. O'Hearn .798

81. Moncada .795

86. Wil. Contreras .791

100. Duran .775

121. Torres .757

127. Story .752

134. Hoskins .748

142. Betts .742

149. Beni .738

158. Caratini .729

159. Narvaez .728

_____ mid point on list of 343 players_____

181. Arraez .712

186. Bogey .710

188. Seam Murphy .709

203. Rafaela .700

221. N Lowe .685

256. Campbell 

263. Toro .659

320. Kike .587

340. C Vazquez 

(Last place at #343 is O Peraza at .476

[moonslav59]

Among MLB Pitchers with 140+ IP the Sox have 3 pitchers in the top 23 in ERA- :

5. Crochet 61 (1st in xFIP at 2.64)

21. Bello 78

23. Giolito 79

(PHI has 3 in the top 13.)

 

We have 3 in the top 50 in fWAR:

4. Crochet 5.8

49. Giolito 1.9

50. Bello 1.9

PHI has 3 in the top 11!

No other team has 2 RP'ers with an fWAR higher than 2.

2.6 Chapman & Cade Smith

2.2 Morejon & Abreu

2.1 Whitlock

2.0 Duran, Diaz, Bednar

I'm thinking the playoffs might give us a shot to give the vast majority of IP to our top 5 to 6 pitchers:

Crochet, Giolito, Bello, Chapman & Whitlock (with Slaten or Early as #6.)

 

[Kimmi]

On 9/24/2025 at 7:54 AM, moonslav59 said:

5 games to go and we have a tenuous hold on the 4 slot in the AL. 2 games behind SEA and 3 behind NYY looks too hard to do anything about, especially since we do not play them.

We are one up on DET & CLE, who play each other 2 more times. We have the tiebreaker w CLE but not DET. We are now 2 up on HOU and hold the tiebreaker, so they would have to gain 3 on us in 5 days.

Another win or two vs TOR would do wonders for the nerves and anxieties.

Winning the first two in Toronto has done wonders for my nerves.  We're not out of the woods yet, but I'm feeling a lot better about getting there.  We could clinch tonight.  The Blue Jays' juggernaut offense has suddenly hit a brick wall, scoring 0 or 1 run in the 6 of the last 7 games.  It would be awesome to sweep them in their home ballpark.  Also, we still have an outside shot at winning the division!  (Yes, I know it's a very slim shot, but it's a shot nonetheless.)  Come on White Sox, help us out here...

I hate that we're helping the Yankees regain the lead in the division, but oh well.  We'll worry about the Yankees later.

Let's go!

[Kimmi]

On 9/24/2025 at 8:34 AM, notin said:

The one game playoff was a lot of fun.  More so watching Matt Holliday face plant the winning run than for watching Yaz meekly pop to third with the tying run on base.  But expanded post seasons have eliminated it because MLB should do its best to keep games out of November as much as possible.

I hate tiebreakers in any sport.  But settling everything on the field can the postseason out too far…

Yeah, I get it.  Personally, I have no issues with baseball going into November, but I get it.

Elimination games are typically a lot of fun, as is playoff baseball in general.  These last couple of weeks have been a lot of fun, though at times, very stressful.  I'm just glad that we're playing meaningful baseball going into the last series of the season.

[Kimmi]

On 9/24/2025 at 8:47 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

After last night, the Tigers-Guardians series means less to us.

Houston can't beat out Boston for a wild card unless the Astros win one more game than the Red Sox in the final five.

So if the Sox go 2-3, the Stros need to go 5-0. Even if the Sox win just one more to finish 1-4, it will still be a tall task for a slumping club like Houston to finish 4-1.

But I still wouldn't want to be Detroit wobbling into Fenway this weekend with all the pressure of history squeezing their tracheas.

I currently no longer care who wins the Detroit-Cleveland series.  I just want Houston to lose now.  Or more ideally, the Red Sox to win.  Frankly, of all the AL teams still in the hunt, Houston is the team that I hope is the odd man out. 

[Kimmi]

On 9/24/2025 at 12:02 PM, notin said:

… which puts the Sox magic number at 3

Magic number is down to 1 !

[Kimmi]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The NL is tighter with the NYM holding a 1 game lead over AZ & CIN for the last WC slot.

 

I'm pulling for the Reds.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

Winning the first two in Toronto has done wonders for my nerves.  We're not out of the woods yet, but I'm feeling a lot better about getting there.  We could clinch tonight.  The Blue Jays' juggernaut offense has suddenly hit a brick wall, scoring 0 or 1 run in the 6 of the last 7 games.  It would be awesome to sweep them in their home ballpark.  Also, we still have an outside shot at winning the division!  (Yes, I know it's a very slim shot, but it's a shot nonetheless.)  Come on White Sox, help us out here...

I hate that we're helping the Yankees regain the lead in the division, but oh well.  We'll worry about the Yankees later.

Let's go!

I'm not going to say I expected us to win the first two at TOR, but this season has shown us things like this, over and over.

We're hearing about the amazing run by the Guardians and the collapse by the Tigers, and rightfully so. CLE has won 18 of 20 and 22 of 28! DET has lost 15 of 20 and 21 of 27.

How about SEA?  They've won 16 of 17 (10 straight and 6 straight sandwiched around a 7-5 loss at KC on Sept 17th. The Yanks 7 of 8 pales against that. The Yanks have also won 21 of 29. The Bastahds!

HOU had a great June (19-7) and if you count from May 24 to July 6, they went 27-12, then KABOOM! 29-39 since, not counting today.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I'm pulling for the Reds.

I'd kinda like the sellers (AZ) to win.

Fred would like that.

 

[Kimmi]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not going to say I expected us to win the first two at TOR, but this season has shown us things like this, over and over.

We're hearing about the amazing run by the Guardians and the collapse by the Tigers, and rightfully so. CLE has won 18 of 20 and 22 of 28! DET has lost 15 of 20 and 21 of 27.

How about SEA?  They've won 16 of 17 (10 straight and 6 straight sandwiched around a 7-5 loss at KC on Sept 17th. The Yanks 7 of 8 pales against that. The Yanks have also won 21 of 29. The Bastahds!

HOU had a great June (19-7) and if you count from May 24 to July 6, they went 27-12, then KABOOM! 29-39 since, not counting today.

It's amazing how quickly things can change in baseball.  One week can make a world of difference.  That's why it always surprises me when people start counting the Red Sox out at the end of May.

It's also amazing how many division leaders have blown big leads this season.  The beauty of baseball.

[Kimmi]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd kinda like the sellers (AZ) to win.

Fred would like that.

 

I wouldn't mind AZ either, but the Reds are my first choice.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

It's amazing how quickly things can change in baseball.  One week can make a world of difference.  That's why it always surprises me when people start counting the Red Sox out at the end of May.

It's also amazing how many division leaders have blown big leads this season.  The beauty of baseball.

Yup.

The Sox have gone...

28-32 APR-MAY

31-19 JUN-JUL

28-20 AUG-SEP

On May 24th we had clawed back to get a game above .500. The same day, in the second game of a day-nighter, we began a losing stretch of 6 in 7 games and 8 in 10, falling to 29-34. Many felt we were off to another 78-84 season, at best. We then took 2 of 3 from the Yanks at NY and followed that with a 6 game winning streak and 8 of 9 to get to 40-37.

Great, right? Ooops! We then lost 6 in a row on a west coast trip and dipped back to 40-43. That was pretty much it for ever being that low, again, although we did lose 7 of 10 in mid AUG and 4 of 5 in mid SEP.

What clinched the winning records were this...

10 straight in early July

7 straight from July 29 to Aug 5

7 of 8 on the road trip to NYY and BAL in late August.

Winning 4 of the last 5 has helped ease the anxiety.

[dgalehouse]

There could be a scenario where it is better to be the third wild card than it is to be the second wild card. I think it would be preferable to play a series at Detroit or Cleveland than at Yankee Stadium. 

[Kimmi]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup.

The Sox have gone...

28-32 APR-MAY

31-19 JUN-JUL

28-20 AUG-SEP

On May 24th we had clawed back to get a game above .500. The same day, in the second game of a day-nighter, we began a losing stretch of 6 in 7 games and 8 in 10, falling to 29-34. Many felt we were off to another 78-84 season, at best. We then took 2 of 3 from the Yanks at NY and followed that with a 6 game winning streak and 8 of 9 to get to 40-37.

Great, right? Ooops! We then lost 6 in a row on a west coast trip and dipped back to 40-43. That was pretty much it for ever being that low, again, although we did lose 7 of 10 in mid AUG and 4 of 5 in mid SEP.

What clinched the winning records were this...

10 straight in early July

7 straight from July 29 to Aug 5

7 of 8 on the road trip to NYY and BAL in late August.

Winning 4 of the last 5 has helped ease the anxiety.

It's been a roller coaster of a season. Every time you think the Sox are out, they reel you back in.  Likewise, every time you think the Sox were "over the hump", they'd scuffle again.  We have to remember not to get so low or so high after a series or two.  It's easier said then done.

[Kimmi]

8 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

There could be a scenario where it is better to be the third wild card than it is to be the second wild card. I think it would be preferable to play a series at Detroit or Cleveland than at Yankee Stadium. 

I would agree.  Even though we've done well against the Yankees this season, I don't want to have to win 2 out of 3 at Yankee Stadium.

[moonslav59]

I'd rather play TOR than SEA, so that is also part of the equation.

[cp176]

13 hours ago, Kimmi said:

It's been a roller coaster of a season. Every time you think the Sox are out, they reel you back in.  Likewise, every time you think the Sox were "over the hump", they'd scuffle again.  We have to remember not to get so low or so high after a series or two.  It's easier said then done.

I’ve watched more baseball this year than I have in a long long time.  My love of baseball has really been mostly about the regular season and all of its ins and outs, ups and downs.  The playoffs are a bonus for me.  Now let’s get there.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Quick -- someone please start a game thread vs. Detroit -- the Red Sox aren't just back in Boston, they're home at Fenway, where they'll be cheered by a loud crowd so intent on celebrating, many students are already skipping Friday classes to begin the party asap (some haven't even gone to sleep yet from last night).

Doesn't matter if the Sox are swinging banjoes, or using bobble-heads in the field, or throwing pitches off batter's toes -- the rowdies will carry hosts around the diamond on waves of enthusiasm...

... rooting for players wearing walk-off greens! 

[Old Red]

ALL teams are so flawed especially in the AL that the postseason is completely open, and anyone in can win. Yankees/Red Sox in Yankee stadium in October should be a must watch TV for everyone, and let the chips fall where they may. Red Sox against anyone else just isn’t the same.

[moonslav59]

4-2 road trip was nice, but now we need a home win.

[drewski6]

16 hours ago, Kimmi said:

I wouldn't mind AZ either, but the Reds are my first choice.

Go Reds!  They are my show (video game) franchise. But Ive overhauled the team quite a bit.

I kept Elly, Matt Mcclain, and 3/5 of the rotation (hunter greene, lodolo, abbott) and called up their minor leaguer chase petty in yr 3.

Yr1 and 2 I also had Austin Hays, but I outgrew him.  I had Stephenson for a while at C but upgraded.  I have had CES the whole time as a bench player.

[drewski6]

14 minutes ago, Old Red said:

ALL teams are so flawed especially in the AL that the postseason is completely open, and anyone in can win. Yankees/Red Sox in Yankee stadium in October should be a must watch TV for everyone, and let the chips fall where they may. Red Sox against anyone else just isn’t the same.

Yes, Ive said before that Crochet can match (at least) anyone, and in the playoffs, your TOTR carries extra weight.  Our pitching staff looks ready to compete.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Yes, Ive said before that Crochet can match (at least) anyone, and in the playoffs, your TOTR carries extra weight.  Our pitching staff looks ready to compete.

Our 1-2-3 starters and 1-2 RP'er match up with anyone else's top 5. Hopefully, they can pitch 70-80% of all meaningful innings pitched.

[moonslav59]

bWAR

The Sox top 5: 6.2 Crochet, 2.3 Bello, 2.0 Giolito/ 3.4 Chapman, 2.3 Whitlock (3 SP=10.5/ 2 RP=5.7) Total: 16.2 (14.3 fWAR)

NYY: 4.6 Rodon, 4.5 Fried, 1.7 Schmidt/ 2.1 Bednar, 1.1 Holl (SP=11.8/ RP=3.2) Total: 15.0 (13.3fWAR w Warren over Schmidt)

TOR: 4.0 Gausman, 2.1 Bassitt, 1.4 Berrios/ 2.2 Lauer, 1.4 Y Rod (SP=7.5/ RP=3.6) Total: 11.1 (10.4 fWAR w Little over YRod)

SEA: 4.3 Woo, 2.0 Gilbert, 0.7 Kirby/ 2.7 Munoz, 1.9 Bazardo (SP=7.0/ RP=4.6) Total: 11.6 (12.2 fWAR w Speier over Bazardo)

 

 

 

[notin]

On 9/25/2025 at 3:15 PM, Kimmi said:

Yeah, I get it.  Personally, I have no issues with baseball going into November, but I get it

You’re in Virginia, where November is an extension of September.  I’m in Chicago, where November is foreplay for January.

And we have two teams here that play in the Workd Series once or twice each century.  A November game at Wrigley might be cancelled due to Polar Vortex…

[moonslav59]

If we ever go to a 16 team playoff format (8 per league,) perhaps after an expansion to 32 teams, I'd prefer we go back to a 154 game schedule.

Keep the seasons ending before snowfall.

Imagine a league of 8 four team divisions. (I doubt we go with 4 eight team divisions.)

ALE: BOS, NYY, BAL, TOR

ALN: CLE, DET, CWS, MN

ALS: TBR, TEX, HOU. KCR

ALW: SEA, SAC, LAA, LV

___________________

NLE: NYY, PHI, WSH, PIT

NLS: ATL, MIA, NC*, STL

NLN: CIN, CHC, MIL, COL

SFG, LAD, SDP, AZ

__________________

I'd prefer a total realignment and 8 team divisions:

East: BOS, NYY, NYM, PHI, BAL, WSH, TOR, BUF**

South: NC, ATL, TBR, MIA STL, KCR, TEX, HOU

North: PIT, CIN, CLE, DET, CWS, CHC, MIL, MIN

West: SEA, SFG, SAC**, LAA, LAD, SDP, AZ, COL

[moonslav59]

What a season!