A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[mvp 78]

34 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I think toro is regressing into what Toro is, an AAAA player! 
 

but Campbell has huge upside. Yes, Campbell was rushed to the majors. Shame on bres-slow. Yes, Campbell had to reconstruct himself in Worcester! And to campbell’s credit, he is figuring it out!!! 
 

But the bottom line is Campbell has a huge ceiling when he figures it out. We need to bring him up when Campbell proves he is ready!!  No more rushing 

Campbell can show what he’s got in 2026.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Campbell can show what he’s got in 2026.

I'm pretty sure the Dodgers felt the same way about Jeter Downs. Hopefully, the Campbell story will have a happier ending.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Professional evaluators named Campbell the Minor League Player of the Year after a sample size of over 100 games at three different levels in his first full pro season.

Toro has sampled the minor leagues for nine years.

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I'm pretty sure the Dodgers felt the same way about Jeter Downs. Hopefully, the Campbell story will have a happier ending.

Sure, in 2026 he can start that journey again.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Professional evaluators named Campbell the Minor League Player of the Year after a sample size of over 100 games at three different levels in his first full pro season.

Toro has sampled the minor leagues for nine years.

Ok?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I think toro is regressing into what Toro is, an AAAA player! 
 

but Campbell has huge upside. Yes, Campbell was rushed to the majors. Shame on bres-slow. Yes, Campbell had to reconstruct himself in Worcester! And to campbell’s credit, he is figuring it out!!! 
 

But the bottom line is Campbell has a huge ceiling when he figures it out. We need to bring him up when Campbell proves he is ready!!  No more rushing 

I don't see any shame in what Brez tried.

I have no idea how KC will do, if called up. I'm pretty sure of what Toro will do in the next 7-8 weeks.

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see any shame in what Brez tried.

Really ???   Campbell looked overwhelmed in spring training, but we still started him in Boston! 

[moonslav59]

51 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Really ???   Campbell looked overwhelmed in spring training, but we still started him in Boston! 

IMO, all 3 should have started day one, even if we had to make winter trades to allow for it. After a couple weeks, Brez looked like a genius, then the wheels came off the KC wagon.

It's not an exact science. There is an element of a dice roll in many choices mades, including the Sale trade. Brez rolled the dice that Sale would do what he did for 5 straight years, but he is apparently an idiot for not knowing Sale was about to about face.

I'm not one to put much into ST'ing numbers. Duran and Abreu had lower ST numbers than KC, so there is that. I'm not gonna roast Brez for giving KC a look. He doesn't deserve a trophy for it, but I'm glad to see our GM trying some new stuff, including the novel idea of trying to build pitchers from your own system! Wowza!

[Larry Cook]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

IMO, all 3 should have started day one, even if we had to make winter trades to allow for it. After a couple weeks, Brez looked like a genius, then the wheels came off the KC wagon.

It's not an exact science. There is an element of a dice roll in many choices mades, including the Sale trade. Brez rolled the dice that Sale would do what he did for 5 straight years, but he is apparently an idiot for not knowing Sale was about to about face.

I'm not one to put much into ST'ing numbers. Duran and Abreu had lower ST numbers than KC, so there is that. I'm not gonna roast Brez for giving KC a look. He doesn't deserve a trophy for it, but I'm glad to see our GM trying some new stuff, including the novel idea of trying to build pitchers from your own system! Wowza!

Fair enough!!!  You do not think Anthony benefited from his early season work in Worcester ???

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Fair enough!!!  You do not think Anthony benefited from his early season work in Worcester ???

Maybe. We'll never know. 

I used to wonder what might have happened if we called up Lynn & Rice earlier.

Anthony and Mayer looked ready, day one. KC was debatable, but it's hard to get these things right, and just because a player does very well or badly, doesn't mean it was the right or wrong call- it could just be luck.

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe. We'll never know. 

I used to wonder what might have happened if we called up Lynn & Rice earlier.

Anthony and Mayer looked ready, day one. KC was debatable, but it's hard to get these things right, and just because a player does very well or badly, doesn't mean it was the right or wrong call- it could just be luck.

Mayer was in fact not ready on day one. Campbell wasn't ready either. Anthony certainly was and had a higher AAA OPS in '24 and twice the PA's than Campbell. The only reason Anthony wasn't called up was "too many OFers." 

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer was in fact not ready on day one. Campbell wasn't ready either. Anthony certainly was and had a higher AAA OPS in '24 and twice the PA's than Campbell. The only reason Anthony wasn't called up was "too many OFers." 

Opinions not facts.

[Bellhorn04]

"Looking ready on Day One" is a pretty shaky concept.  

[Nick]

Moon, how do you see 1B panning out in 2026?

Right now, I'd love the idea of Garcia playing 1B if we are keeping all of our OF. I don not want Garcia in any trade. He's a keeper. 

Or do we roll the dice and trade Abreu and plug Garcia in the outfield mix? I just don't believe Casas will be ready at the start of 2026 and quite frankly I don't know what we'll get. He's just slow and really doesn't fit the team going forward.

 

CC Narvaez

1B Garcia

2B Mayer

SS Trevor

3B Bregman-50/50

LF Duran/Anthony

CF Duran/Rafaela

RF Abreu/Anthony

DH TBD (I just don't like Yoshida)

If Bregman leaves, I can see JH going cheap and perhaps play Mayer at 3B and plug in Rafaela at 2B (Cora keeps saying Rafaela is the best CF but we simply have plethora of outfielders, including now Garcia in the mix for 2026)

We can keep our three amigos in the OF (Anthony, Duran, Abreu)  and still have Garcia learning to play 1B.

Then the Bregman money can be used to shore up our starting rotation.

I think we're in a good position going forward.....If Bregman signs a long term deal, I want that, we won't have to worry about left side of the infield defense and we'll have plenty of pop offensively.

Sure would be nice to get a rookie to step in and capture the #5 spot in the rotation.

Bello, Crawford, Criswell, Crochet, Dobbins, Fitts, Giolito (?), Harrison, Houck, Perales, Sandoval, then Tolle, Witherspoon, Early, and Sandlin. We have enough guys for 5 spots if everyone is healthy. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

Moon, how do you see 1B panning out in 2026?

Right now, I'd love the idea of Garcia playing 1B if we are keeping all of our OF. I don not want Garcia in any trade. He's a keeper. 

Or do we roll the dice and trade Abreu and plug Garcia in the outfield mix? I just don't believe Casas will be ready at the start of 2026 and quite frankly I don't know what we'll get. He's just slow and really doesn't fit the team going forward.

I'd like to see us add a 1Bman, even if one who can platoon with Romy, but I think we do nothing, again.

We will roll the dice with Casas & Romy, and maybe have Jh Garcia learn to play 1B, although he is a RHB that does not match up with a Romy 1B platoon. Campbell at 1B is also a RHB, but he might be my fave to play 1B in 2026.

We may need Romy to play 2B, if Mayer is hurt or struggles vs LHPs.

I think Bregman holds the key to a lot of choices to be made. If he bolts, we may try to go big at 1B (Alonso?) and try Mayer back at 3B, again. That leaves 2B as the eternal hole for the Sox (Campbell, Romy, DHam, Grissom...)

 

 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Opinions not facts.

All offseason I said Marcelo needed time in AAA to work on hitting vs LHP and offspeed stuff.

Marcelo: AAA 638 OPS vs LHP, MLB 416 OPS vs LHP

Offspeed per Statcast: 125 BA, 139 XBA, 292 SLG, 312 XSLG, 214 WOBA, 228 XWOBA 

He was in fact not ready in March for the bigs. 

 

[Nick]

100 1/3 innings pitched for Giolito.

Probably 8 more starts to go. He needs to pitch couple of 7/8 inning starts. 

I never thought it would be tough to get up to 140 innings for a starter.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Nick said:

100 1/3 innings pitched for Giolito.

Probably 8 more starts to go. He needs to pitch couple of 7/8 inning starts. 

I never thought it would be tough to get up to 140 innings for a starter.

He just needs to average 5 innings per start. Doesn't seem hard for a guy like him. 

[mvp 78]

Anonymous
3 hours ago
What are scouts saying about Kristian Campbell's efforts to rebuild his past hitting success? It seems like he still has a way to go. Thanks.

Geoff Pontes
2 hours ago
I think the results have been better than the feedback or the underlying data. It's odd, he's EVs are way down and he just doesn't seem nearly as explosive. He did homer for me on Sunday and has generally hit in every WooSox game I've sat on in the last month. Evaluators just don't seem to be watching the same guy.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

All offseason I said Marcelo needed time in AAA to work on hitting vs LHP and offspeed stuff.

Marcelo: AAA 638 OPS vs LHP, MLB 416 OPS vs LHP

Offspeed per Statcast: 125 BA, 139 XBA, 292 SLG, 312 XSLG, 214 WOBA, 228 XWOBA 

He was in fact not ready in March for the bigs. 

 

I agree with your opinion.

[Nick]

Do we sign Dustin May? He's only making $2.135M. Only 27.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Nick said:

Do we sign Dustin May? He's only making $2.135M. Only 27.

Like I said as soon as we made the trade, I'm hoping Bailey saw something that could be improved with a little tweak.  

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, Nick said:

Do we sign Dustin May? He's only making $2.135M. Only 27.

Permanently injured guys don't get a lot of ARB money. Not sure what his FA market is. People getting very excited over one start though. 

[Larry Cook]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer was in fact not ready on day one. Campbell wasn't ready either. Anthony certainly was and had a higher AAA OPS in '24 and twice the PA's than Campbell. The only reason Anthony wasn't called up was "too many OFers." 

The new theory is Campbell was hitting major league pitching fine until he hurt his ribs! 
even in the minors his ribs hurt. But now they are healing and  he is impacting the baseball again!!  
I think the kid is an amazing hitter we when healthy! 

[Maxbialystock]

22 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I think toro is regressing into what Toro is, an AAAA player! 
 

but Campbell has huge upside. Yes, Campbell was rushed to the majors. Shame on bres-slow. Yes, Campbell had to reconstruct himself in Worcester! And to campbell’s credit, he is figuring it out!!! 
 

But the bottom line is Campbell has a huge ceiling when he figures it out. We need to bring him up when Campbell proves he is ready!!  No more rushing 

Not buying an instant fix--just 40 games--at Worcester.  Connor Wong's OPS at Worcester was 1.156.  Let Campbell compete next spring.

Garcia, on the other hand, looks awfully good, but the Sox already have 4 good outfielders.  My guess is an outfielder gets traded this winter.  

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

The new theory is Campbell was hitting major league pitching fine until he hurt his ribs! 
even in the minors his ribs hurt. But now they are healing and  he is impacting the baseball again!!  
I think the kid is an amazing hitter we when healthy! 

It's funny how KC was "ML Ready" the first two weeks of the season, then "wasn't" the next 2 months.

Brez and Cora were geniuses in mid April, and now, it was a "mistake."

Players have rough stretches all the time, and for various reasons. Sometimes, we never know the reason, but in this case, some seem to think they know KC failed because "He wasn't ready."

Maybe they are right: maybe not.

Nobody really knows.

They called Dobbins up with a 5.09 ERA with Woo. Was he ready? Oh, I guess so, since he did well. Is it really as simple as hindsight evaluation?

 

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Permanently injured guys don't get a lot of ARB money. Not sure what his FA market is. People getting very excited over one start though. 

He was great last night, but the Sox definitely need to see more. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

The new theory is Campbell was hitting major league pitching fine until he hurt his ribs! 
even in the minors his ribs hurt. But now they are healing and  he is impacting the baseball again!!  
I think the kid is an amazing hitter we when healthy! 

He's not impacting the ball more though? His EV's are still down. 

[Larry Cook]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's not impacting the ball more though? His EV's are still down. 

Ribs take a long time to heal!!! 
 

Casas was out a good bit last year!!!

today against a quality major league pitcher, Campbell had 1 of the 2 Worcester hits in the game!!!!  

[moonslav59]

Does Toro have a permanent rib issue?