A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

If Sean Murphy could learn to play 1B and be the back-up catcher to Narvaez, would ATL do this trade?

To ATL:

Story ($25M x 2 + $25M option for 2028 w $5M buyout) Basically $55M/2 or $75M/3

$10M a year for '27 & '28 plus $5M for buyout in '29= $25M

Wong (3 arbs left)

Winckowski (3 arbs left)

To BOS:

Murphy ($15M x 3 + $15M option for 2029- no buyout)

Ozuna ($16M '26 then FA)

The money is about the same for 2025, 2026 and 2027. ATL saves $15M in 2028.

We get Ozuna to DH for 2025 and Murphy to back-up Narvaez and hopefully play 1B for the remainder of his deal. We replace Story's money with Murphy's, counting the money going to ATL. We open up the SS slot for Mayer. 2B would be open for Campbell/Romy and eventually Arias/Romero.

It would be nice to get Sale back, but I doubt we could pull that off.

Ive speculated on Story/Murphy trades before and feel they might be a good match. (BTV most definitely does not as it hates Trevor Story.)

Assuming I’m right and they are a fair match, then the rest of that deal becomes Wong and an injured Winckowski for 1.5 years of one of the most dangerous right-handed bats in MLB.  Absolutely no way Atlanta settles for that.  Not even at gunpoint…

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

Ive speculated on Story/Murphy trades before and feel they might be a good match. (BTV most definitely does not as it hates Trevor Story.)

Assuming I’m right and they are a fair match, then the rest of that deal becomes Wong and an injured Winckowski for 1.5 years of one of the most dangerous right-handed bats in MLB.  Absolutely no way Atlanta settles for that.  Not even at gunpoint…

Yes, I under rated Ozuna's rental value.

Maybe the deal without him.

[Nick]

Cleveland and Toronto lost. Rays also lost.

 

12 teams within 2 1/2 games of wildcard spot.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, Nick said:

Cleveland and Toronto lost. Rays also lost.

 

12 teams within 2 1/2 games of wildcard spot.

That's crazy!

It's actually 3 division leaders and 9 teams over or under the last WC slot by 2.5 games>
 

The Sox have played 2-3 more games than most other teams, so we don't look as good in the loss column (T8) but are 6th in Ws.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's crazy!

It's actually 3 division leaders and 9 teams over or under the last WC slot by 2.5 games>
 

The Sox have played 2-3 more games than most other teams, so we don't look as good in the loss column (T8) but are 6th in Ws.

Detroit kinda stands alone atop the AL at 48-27. The next 11 teams are within 7.5 games of each other.

43-31 HOU ALW leader

43-31 NYY ALE leader

WC

41-33 TBR +3.5 on #7

40-34 TOR +2.5 on #7

39-37 BOS +0.5 on #7

37-36 CLE -0.5

37-36 SEA -0.5

37-37 MIN -1.0

37-38 KCR -1.5

36-38 LAA -2.0

36-39 TEX -2.5

(Even BAL is still "in it" at -6.5)

[moonslav59]

We have to take one game at a time, and the team can't look beyond the next game, but we can.

We absolutely have to make our move, right now. No game is easy, but the games we have scheduled up to the ASB are ones we can and have to win. The games after will test us about as much as one could imagine.

Games before ASB:

3 @ SFG

3 @ LAA

3 v TOR

3 v CIN

3 @ WSH

3 v COL

3 v TBR

We have 6 games vs the two ALE teams ahead of us, plus these next 3 vs a very good SFG team. The other 12 are games we must and should win each series. (8-4) If we can go 5-4 in the tough ones and 8-4 in the others, we can probably be sitting pretty well going into this brutal post ASB stretch:

3 @ CHC

3 @ PHI

3 v LAD

3 @ MIN

3 v HOU (Trade deadline before game 1)

3 v KCR

3 @ SDP

3 @ HOU

This is 8 straight series vs good to very good teams.

 

[Nick]

I seem to recall after the All Star game,we play both the Nationals and the Rockies.

We also play the Athletics 6 times in September.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Nick said:

I seem to recall after the All Star game,we play both the Nationals and the Rockies.

We also play the Athletics 6 times in September.

The Sox haven't really been able to sweep the bad teams. 

BAL won a series, split a series

CHW lost a series, won a series

[drewski6]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I under rated Ozuna's rental value.

Maybe the deal without him.

What about without Murphy?

[moonslav59]

Just now, drewski6 said:

What about without Murphy?

Good point, but I just don't like the idea of trading for a rental.

Now, getting out from under a big chunk of Story's contract has real appeal. Opening up SS for Mayer, does, too, but the idea made much better sense, when we viewed Campbell as our FT 2Bman. Now, Story looks better there.

Romero is to iffy.

Arias is too far away.

Cespedes might be worse on D than Campbell.

Romy/DHam does not have much umf. If we got a 1Bman, I'm not sure Romy/Toro at 2B does either.

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The Sox haven't really been able to sweep the bad teams. 

BAL won a series, split a series

CHW lost a series, won a series

I don't think there's anything to be learned from which teams we've played well or crappy against.

If someone told you we'd be 9-3 against the Yanks & Rays at this point, you'd think we'd be 5 games up in the division.

 

[drewski6]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good point, but I just don't like the idea of trading for a rental.

Now, getting out from under a big chunk of Story's contract has real appeal. Opening up SS for Mayer, does, too, but the idea made much better sense, when we viewed Campbell as our FT 2Bman. Now, Story looks better there.

Romero is to iffy.

Arias is too far away.

Cespedes might be worse on D than Campbell.

Romy/DHam does not have much umf. If we got a 1Bman, I'm not sure Romy/Toro at 2B does either.

If the Braves start selling, Ozuna may be a .900 OPS bat available for cheap.

[moonslav59]

Just now, drewski6 said:

If the Braves start selling, Ozuna may be a .900 OPS bat available for cheap.

I'm not sure he will be Schwarber '21 cheap, but I'm okay with rentals, if they don't cost us Arias, Tolle, Clarke of any higher ranked prospects.

Bleis for Ozuna? Sure. Cespedes? Probably. Mullins & Jordan? Probably.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't think there's anything to be learned from which teams we've played well or crappy against.

If someone told you we'd be 9-3 against the Yanks & Rays at this point, you'd think we'd be 5 games up in the division.

That's why I don't know if there's a point in saying "look at what the schedule looks like up ahead." Forecasting it that way generally doesn't work out. Saying "they have to make their move now" because of the schedule later on is meaningless to me. 

[moonslav59]

Someone like Mitch Keller might eb available, as his pay goes up and out of PIT's reach, soon, but he's not an impact starter. If they added Bednar, who has one arb year left, maybe we could make it worth their while.

We need to find controllable guys, who might be high end on salary for teams looking to trim salary, but they have to be good players, who rate to still be good over the rest of their contract. How many guys/teams like that are there?

Even if TEX turns seller, they won't trade Nate.

If STL turns seller, there is still Arenado (3B until Breg returns then 1B?) and Sonny Gray? Helsley is a rental, but we have Chapman. Willson Contreras is a salary dump, who now plays 1B and could be our 3rd catcher (2nd? Hmmmm.)

MIN won't trade Lopez.

Maybe Cincy parts with a Sp'er, if we take on Candelario, who I'm not even sure is healthy or can play 3B/1B.

Any other ideas like this?

 

[Larry Cook]

White Sox are calling winkleman up to the majors!!!!!!!!

the kid has electric stuff!!!!  

[drewski6]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Someone like Mitch Keller might eb available, as his pay goes up and out of PIT's reach, soon, but he's not an impact starter. If they added Bednar, who has one arb year left, maybe we could make it worth their while.

We need to find controllable guys, who might be high end on salary for teams looking to trim salary, but they have to be good players, who rate to still be good over the rest of their contract. How many guys/teams like that are there?

Even if TEX turns seller, they won't trade Nate.

If STL turns seller, there is still Arenado (3B until Breg returns then 1B?) and Sonny Gray? Helsley is a rental, but we have Chapman. Willson Contreras is a salary dump, who now plays 1B and could be our 3rd catcher (2nd? Hmmmm.)

MIN won't trade Lopez.

Maybe Cincy parts with a Sp'er, if we take on Candelario, who I'm not even sure is healthy or can play 3B/1B.

Any other ideas like this?

 

I like where your head is at.  If we didnt trade Devers to free up money but it was because attitude, we should be willing to take on a player back who is good but maybe slightly overpaid and a sweetner to make it BTV neurtal because we shouldnt have to take negative value contract just cuz we can.

Theres a few players on Cincy I would love to have.  But Im not sure that team is willing to move em (and not talking about Elly)

[drewski6]

yikes, what happened to matt mclain.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

White Sox are calling winkleman up to the majors!!!!!!!!

the kid has electric stuff!!!!  

Reliever now. 

[cp176]

23 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I see the rotation currently as: 

1.) crochet - ace! 
2.) 

3.) 

4.) bello 

5.) dobbins 

veteran depth - beuhler and giolita 

We are missing a wing man for crochet (number 2 starter) and a quality pitcher for the 3rd spot in the rotation 

I’ve been very impressed with Dobbins from the start.  Big, strong, young, and a strike thrower.  They will all pitch a stinker from time to time, but I think that he has the potential to be better than anyone not named Crochet on this staff.  Overall got to say  that outside of Beuhler, I’ve been fairly impressed with our starters.

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's why I don't know if there's a point in saying "look at what the schedule looks like up ahead." Forecasting it that way generally doesn't work out. Saying "they have to make their move now" because of the schedule later on is meaningless to me. 

I hear you. That stretch after the ASB and beyond the trade deadline is as  tough as can be, so I still think we should be as best positioned as possible by then. but we could say the same if the two stretches were reversed.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, cp176 said:

I’ve been very impressed with Dobbins from the start.  Big, strong, young, and a strike thrower.  They will all pitch a stinker from time to time, but I think that he has the potential to be better than anyone not named Crochet on this staff.  Overall got to say  that outside of Beuhler, I’ve been fairly impressed with our starters.

Buehler and Houck (and Newcomb and Fitts and ...)

[Larry Cook]

Even though communication and family harmony are not bres-slow’s strong suit, I have to admit that our roster is brimming with potential and versatility!!! 
i think we are two above average quality starters away from having a playoff caliber team. 
 

one starter is playing with the Phillies triple A team! And we know desperate Dave will trade away prospects!!!!  
 

bres-slow has a few different options as far as trading for starting pitcher that can slide into the rotation behind crochet!!! 
 

we have the trade pieces, now bres-slow just has to find trade partners 

[Maxbialystock]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Good point, but I just don't like the idea of trading for a rental.

Now, getting out from under a big chunk of Story's contract has real appeal. Opening up SS for Mayer, does, too, but the idea made much better sense, when we viewed Campbell as our FT 2Bman. Now, Story looks better there.

Romero is to iffy.

Arias is too far away.

Cespedes might be worse on D than Campbell.

Romy/DHam does not have much umf. If we got a 1Bman, I'm not sure Romy/Toro at 2B does either.

Right now I'm fine with a potential infield of Bregman at 3b, Mayer SS, Story 2b, and Toro 1b.  You love defense, so do I need to remind you that Bregman, Mayer, and Story have all looked good on defense so far?  The four infielders' overall WAR's, in order, are +2.9, +0.6 (in 21 games), +1.1, and +0.4.  

I don't like paying someone else to take Story, not when we don't have a second baseman remotely as good (although Hamilton is good on D).  Campbell can't field and is struggling at the plate.  Rafaela might do, but he's awfully good in CF.  Let's see what Cora does tonight with Abreu back and Anthony getting lots RF time.  If the outfield is Doran, Abreu, and Anthony, maybe Rafaela goes to the infield--or, as you opined, backup for both infield and outfield.  

 

[Maxbialystock]

19 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Even though communication and family harmony are not bres-slow’s strong suit, I have to admit that our roster is brimming with potential and versatility!!! 
i think we are two above average quality starters away from having a playoff caliber team. 
 

one starter is playing with the Phillies triple A team! And we know desperate Dave will trade away prospects!!!!  
 

bres-slow has a few different options as far as trading for starting pitcher that can slide into the rotation behind crochet!!! 
 

we have the trade pieces, now bres-slow just has to find trade partners 

I don't want Breslow to Mr Goodguy.  He needs to be smart and, when necessary, ruthless.  Despite the many times Brad Pitt as Billy Beane in Moneyball is seen in the locker room talking to the players, we should not forget that he was in fact ruthless in shaping the lineup and sending players to other teams.  

Cora is the guy running the team, and he's pretty good at it.  Heck, he got Devers to buy into DH.  

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Right now I'm fine with a potential infield of Bregman at 3b, Mayer SS, Story 2b, and Toro 1b.  You love defense, so do I need to remind you that Bregman, Mayer, and Story have all looked good on defense so far? 

I disagree about Story's defense. 1 DRS, -2 OAA, -2 FRV. He'd be better off at 2b where his defense could get back to above average. 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I don't want Breslow to Mr Goodguy.  He needs to be smart and, when necessary, ruthless.  Despite the many times Brad Pitt as Billy Beane in Moneyball is seen in the locker room talking to the players, we should not forget that he was in fact ruthless in shaping the lineup and sending players to other teams.  

Cora is the guy running the team, and he's pretty good at it.  Heck, he got Devers to buy into DH.  

Don't be ruthless to players that are currently still on the squad. Especially not to guys making 300M. That's a terrible way to run a business. 

[Maxbialystock]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

I disagree about Story's defense. 1 DRS, -2 OAA, -2 FRV. He'd be better off at 2b where his defense could get back to above average. 

His DWAR is +0.6, ranked 11th in MLB.

But I would be delighted with Story at 2b and Mayer at SS, his natural position.  Story was terrific at 2b his first season with the Sox.   

[Maxbialystock]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Don't be ruthless to players that are currently still on the squad. Especially not to guys making 300M. That's a terrible way to run a business. 

Ruthless to me means don't be afraid to trade anyone away.  

I could not agree more that Breslow lied to Raffy and then drove him away by insisting he play 1b when he was thriving at DH.

That said, I also think the arrival of Bregman meant Devers' days with the Sox were numbered because Raffy loved playing 3b and had been promised he could keep it.  Cora ameliorated the situation by convincing Raffy to embrace DH, which absolutely worked. 

However, $30M/year for a DH is kind of pricey.  Let's not forget that Yoshida is getting paid $18/year and can only DH.  So the Sox were really paying $48M a year for their DH.  Make sense?  

[mvp 78]