A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

I hate to get my hopes up, as it is usually a sign a tough loss is coming up, next game, but the landscape has changed, quickly.

5 teams are 2 to 2.5 behind the last WC slot with us.

We are 2 GM CLE & MN for that last slot, but we are also just 3 GB TBR and 4GB TOR.

Hell, we're 5 GB HOU.

What a weird year!

 

[Larry Cook]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I hate to get my hopes up, as it is usually a sign a tough loss is coming up, next game, but the landscape has changed, quickly.

5 teams are 2 to 2.5 behind the last WC slot with us.

We are 2 GM CLE & MN for that last slot, but we are also just 3 GB TBR and 4GB TOR.

Hell, we're 5 GB HOU.

What a weird year!

 

Like you said. One game at a time and hope the starting pitching holds up 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Like you said. One game at a time and hope the starting pitching holds up 

Tonight looked like it might be yet one more hard luck late loss. We've been here, before.

Maybe this time, we can get on a roll- for real.

YES!!! One at a time!

[Bellhorn04]

We've played well so far this year against the Yankees and the Rays.  And that's all I'll say about it because we must play them many more times!

[Hitch]

I can't be bothered to do the research on this one, but I'd be interested in our record against better teams in comparison to worse teams this season. I may just have recency bias, but it feels like we have really stumbled with the lesser teams and held held our own with the better.

I'm loving Narváez's growth, too. I was vocally excited about that trade at the time. Everything I'd read and heard about him made me think we had a good one. But I didn't think he'd be this good this early. This carries on he's a got a real shot at ROY. Nice to see Wong relegated to a back up role for which he's best suited. 

[Nick]

Some of you make too big a deal about the competition coming up.

It really doesn't matter. Red Sox can play well against good teams and poorly versus bad teams.

We are the fifth best team with a record 18-20 against >.500 teams in the American League.

Two of the current six playoff bound teams have losing records versus >.500 team. 

The Twins in the sixth spot has a 14-20 vs >.500 teams and the Rays lead the league with 22-14 versus >.500 teams.

Maybe we should beat bad teams but along with not being dominant at home, each game is an adventure for us. Good thing is that we can compete against the Yankees as well as against the White Sox.

I don't care who we play.

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

I can't be bothered to do the research on this one, but I'd be interested in our record against better teams in comparison to worse teams this season. I may just have recency bias, but it feels like we have really stumbled with the lesser teams and held held our own with the better.

To me the Yanks and the Rays are a big litmus test, they're both tough teams in very different ways.  The Yanks want to demolish you while the Rays want to torture you with their nerdy no-name approach.  

[moonslav59]

You gotta have some skills to beat the better teams, but also some sort of lack of focus or something else that causes let-downs vs the worse teams.

It's a long season, so many we can fix the letdowns.

We've also lost a ton of close games. Perhaps it's just been more bad luck than good, and maybe it evens out, as we go forward.

[moonslav59]

You should consider park influences when you look at runs scored and allowed, but we are 5th in runs (347) scored (4 behind AZ, but 20 behind NYY.)

We have allowed 328 runs (23rd) and have a +19 run differential, which would normally lead to a comfortable winning record. We are 14th in run differential but 19th in winning %.

We've allowed 41 unearned runs to score, but this does not capture all the runs allowed by poor defense not called errors. I would not be a bit surprised, if our defense has allowed a run a game to score vs what the best defensive team might have allowed. Just unearned alone has allowed .58 runs/game.

OPS is also park influenced, but we are 6th in OPS at .750 (.005 behind NYM.) We are tied for 9th in wRC+ (105,) so we seem to be a top 10 team on offense. We are 20th in ERA (4.03) but ar at 95 in ERA- (15th) We are 14th in FIP (3.91) but 12th in xFIP (3.92.) I think it's safe to say we are about dead in the middle with our pitching, but again, the defense helped get us that low.

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

You should consider park influences when you look at runs scored and allowed, but we are 5th in runs (347) scored (4 behind AZ, but 20 behind NYY.)

We have allowed 328 runs (23rd) and have a +19 run differential, which would normally lead to a comfortable winning record. We are 14th in run differential but 19th in winning %.

We've allowed 41 unearned runs to score, but this does not capture all the runs allowed by poor defense not called errors. I would not be a bit surprised, if our defense has allowed a run a game to score vs what the best defensive team might have allowed. Just unearned alone has allowed .58 runs/game.

OPS is also park influenced, but we are 6th in OPS at .750 (.005 behind NYM.) We are tied for 9th in wRC+ (105,) so we seem to be a top 10 team on offense. We are 20th in ERA (4.03) but ar at 95 in ERA- (15th) We are 14th in FIP (3.91) but 12th in xFIP (3.92.) I think it's safe to say we are about dead in the middle with our pitching, but again, the defense helped get us that low.

There is a huge negative impact on teams that routinely allow opponents extra outs!!   
I know our defense has cost us a few games! 
but leading baseball in blown saves, that’s especially painful!!!!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

There is a huge negative impact on teams that routinely allow opponents extra outs!!   
I know our defense has cost us a few games! 
but leading baseball in blown saves, that’s especially painful!!!!

That is a major reason for many losses, especially the close ones, and I don't mean to minimize the influence our pen has had on too many losses, but the defense has kept games close than they should have been, and forced more save opportunities than there otherwise might have been. Poor defense has also played a role in several actual blown saves, too.

Poor timely hitting has been a factor in there being too many close games and losses.

We all felt our pen was the weakest area. Several of us felt the defense had improved, but realized improving from a bottom 3 team on D to maybe bottom 10-15 might not be enough. Instead, we still seem like a bottom 5 to 9 club- not middle 10, as some hoped we could get to. Maybe that's why it sticks out to me, more. Plus, I know I have a bias against poor or even mediocre defense, as I've admitted before.

The whole "save" stat bothers me, but it is an indicator for what is working and what isn't, and our pen has not been a plus. The league average is a 64% save rate, and only Chapman beats that at 92% (12 Sv and 1 BS.) Chapman has also inherited 5 runners and none scored.

Weissert has blown 2 of 3. (12 holds and just 1 of 14 IF have scored.)

Slaten has 2 of 3 BS, as well. (4 holds and 1 of 10 IR scored.)

Whitlock is 0-4, Wilson 0-3 and Kelly 0-1.

Whitlock has 5 holds and 5W-0L. He's allowed 2 of 4 IR to score.

Wilson has 8 holds and has allowed 5 of 15 IR to score.

Bernardino has allowed 7 of 19 IR to score. 

The league avg for IRS is 30%. Only Chapman (0%), Slaten (10%) and Weistter (7%) are below that number.

All in all, here are the numbers:

Sv Sit/ Svs +Holds/BS (SV+Hold %)

14/13/1 Chapman (93%)

15/13/2 Weissert (87%)

11/8/2 Wilson (73%) 1 no SV, Hold or BS

10/5/4 Whitlock (50%) 1 no SV, Hold or BS

9/7/2 Slaten (78%)

3/1/1 Kelly (33%) 1 no SV, Hold or BS

1/1/0 Bernardino (100%)

[moonslav59]

17 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Like you said. One game at a time and hope the starting pitching holds up 

Tonight looked like it might be yet one more hard luck late loss. We've been here, before.

Maybe this time, we can get on a roll- for real.

YES!!! One at a time!

[Larry Cook]

Van belle traded to cincy for cash. 
 

does this open a spot in Worcester for early???

[moonslav59]

If we want to use fWAR to identify our best and worst positions, here is a look...

MLB Rank

1st 3B (Getting close to 2nd w Bregman out.)

T3 Pen (boosted by so many IP)

4th DH (Devers forevers.)

T6 RF (proving platoons can and do work)

T6 LF (not bad for an "off year" by Duran.)

T7 Catcher (Thank you, Narvaez.)

T9 CF (Rafaela doing it all.)

19th SP (Not going to get us to the dance.)

T24 SS (Story is the story, here.)

T25 1B (Toro & Romy helping, recently.)

28th 2B (We can't seem to ever get this position right.)

I gotta think a SP'er and solid RP'er are 1-2 on our list of needs, despite this rankings list. We aren't spending on 2B or SS. Perhaps, we make an addition at 1B, but only if the Toro-Romy experiment is going south at the end of July.

[Larry Cook]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I gotta think a SP'er and solid RP'er are 1-2 on our list of needs, despite this rankings list. We aren't spending on 2B or SS. Perhaps, we make an addition at 1B, but only if the Toro-Romy experiment is going south at the end of July.

We have a ton of trade capital to make this happen!  
I know bres-slow had bad luck with trading for relievers last trade deadline!!!  Let’s hope he gets it right this time. 
I do not know what morvani or possibly Sandoval adds but trading for a quality reliever seems the better path! 
we got abreau, Bregman and Houck potentially back in the next 30 days or so!!! 
add another quality starter via trade in addition to the quality reliever and we got a chance to make the playoffs 

[cp176]

6 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

We have a ton of trade capital to make this happen!  
I know bres-slow had bad luck with trading for relievers last trade deadline!!!  Let’s hope he gets it right this time. 
I do not know what morvani or possibly Sandoval adds but trading for a quality reliever seems the better path! 
we got abreau, Bregman and Houck potentially back in the next 30 days or so!!! 
add another quality starter via trade in addition to the quality reliever and we got a chance to make the playoffs 

When Abreau returns and someone has to get  conveniently injured or simply sent down, my pick would be Campbell.  Regardless of the signs of life lately, I think that he could use a little extra work.  I would choose to never send Mayer anywhere but possibly second base for a short visit.  I’ll always believe that he should have come up first.  He looks poised and confident.  His hitting will come but he looks very poised in the field to me.

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, cp176 said:

When Abreau returns and someone has to get  conveniently injured or simply sent down, my pick would be Campbell.  Regardless of the signs of life lately, I think that he could use a little extra work.  I would choose to never send Mayer anywhere but possibly second base for a short visit.  I’ll always believe that he should have come up first.  He looks poised and confident.  His hitting will come but he looks very poised in the field to me.

I think Devers will be visiting the DL when abreau comes back!!!!

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

I think Devers will be visiting the DL when abreau comes back!!!!

 

Why Devers?

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

We have a ton of trade capital to make this happen!  
I know bres-slow had bad luck with trading for relievers last trade deadline!!!  Let’s hope he gets it right this time. 
I do not know what morvani or possibly Sandoval adds but trading for a quality reliever seems the better path! 
we got abreau, Bregman and Houck potentially back in the next 30 days or so!!! 
add another quality starter via trade in addition to the quality reliever and we got a chance to make the playoffs 

I'm done counting on returning pitchers from injury. If they do, so be it. We need to plan on zero IP from Houck, Crawford & Sandoval and go from there.

I do expect Bregman back, but I'd add 2-4 weeks to whatever time table we have.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, cp176 said:

When Abreau returns and someone has to get  conveniently injured or simply sent down, my pick would be Campbell.  Regardless of the signs of life lately, I think that he could use a little extra work.  I would choose to never send Mayer anywhere but possibly second base for a short visit.  I’ll always believe that he should have come up first.  He looks poised and confident.  His hitting will come but he looks very poised in the field to me.

How does demoting Campbell get Abreu into the lineup? What OF'er plays 2B? Rafaela? Our best defensive CF?

We can try some shuffle- mix it up plan, maybe starting by platooning Duran, but there is not enough ABs for those who deserve them in the OF.

To me, the untouchable is the Abreu-Ref platoon.

Second is Duran vs RHPs.

Next is Rafaela in CF and Anthony as close to FT as possible being tied.

So, Duran in LF vs most R and CF vs some R.

Rafaela in CF v L and most R.

Anthony in LF v all L and some R. Is that enough? Do we play Rafaela or Duran even less, so Roman plays more?

The Bregman return would put that spotlight on Campbell, not the Abreu return, IMO.

[moonslav59]

We've won 6 of the last 7 and 7 of 9.

Over the last 9 games...

Whodathunk these names?

1.167 Mayer

1.072 Toro

1.043 Romy

.977 Narvaez

.935 Story

.873 Refsnyder

.836 Campbell

 

.744 Duran

.731 Devers

.688 Rafaela

 

18 PAs Anthony at .292, 9 PAs DHam at .556 & Abreu at .508

[moonslav59]

ERA over last 9 games (listed by most IP)

3.77 Crochet

2.45 Dobbins

8.00 Buehler

8.22 Giolito

4.26 Bello

1.80 Wilson

5.40 Guerrero

3.86 Weissert

1.93 Criswell

0.00 Whitlock & CHapman

2.70 Kelly

18.00 Bernardino

0.2 IP has Stock at 27.00

[Larry Cook]

7 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Why Devers?

Cora said Devers was playing through an injury of some type 

[Larry Cook]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

ERA over last 9 games (listed by most IP)

3.77 Crochet

2.45 Dobbins

8.00 Buehler

8.22 Giolito

4.26 Bello

1.80 Wilson

5.40 Guerrero

3.86 Weissert

1.93 Criswell

0.00 Whitlock & CHapman

2.70 Kelly

18.00 Bernardino

0.2 IP has Stock at 27.00

Is our record 7 and 2 since we promoted Anthony????

[cp176]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How does demoting Campbell get Abreu into the lineup? What OF'er plays 2B? Rafaela? Our best defensive CF?

We can try some shuffle- mix it up plan, maybe starting by platooning Duran, but there is not enough ABs for those who deserve them in the OF.

To me, the untouchable is the Abreu-Ref platoon.

Second is Duran vs RHPs.

Next is Rafaela in CF and Anthony as close to FT as possible being tied.

So, Duran in LF vs most R and CF vs some R.

Rafaela in CF v L and most R.

Anthony in LF v all L and some R. Is that enough? Do we play Rafaela or Duran even less, so Roman plays more?

The Bregman return would put that spotlight on Campbell, not the Abreu return, IMO.

I think that he is the logical player to go down  in order to keep Mayer where he is.  He really should have been sent down a while ago.  Abreau/Duran/?  Who knows right.  Should be playing Mayer every single day.

[moonslav59]

Just now, cp176 said:

I think that he is the logical player to go down  in order to keep Mayer where he is.  He really should have been sent down a while ago.  Abreau/Duran/?  Who knows right.  Should be playing Mayer every single day.

I can see keeping Mayer over Campbell, when Bregman returns, but you mentioned sending KC down when Abreu returns.

I like KC more than DHam, but if we cant find a way to play these 3 kids more than 70-80%, I think we send 'em down. I'm not sure we try anyone at 1B, as long a the Toro-Romy duo keeps raking.

[cp176]

51 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I can see keeping Mayer over Campbell, when Bregman returns, but you mentioned sending KC down when Abreu returns.

I like KC more than DHam, but if we cant find a way to play these 3 kids more than 70-80%, I think we send 'em down. I'm not sure we try anyone at 1B, as long a the Toro-Romy duo keeps raking.

I understand and you are right.  David Hamilton may likely have run his course in Fenway.  I guess what I’m really trying to say is that if Campbell isn’t going to play regularly then send him down.  I believe Mayer is a much better option at second base when Bergman returns.  No real place for Campbell.

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, cp176 said:

I understand and you are right.  David Hamilton may likely have run his course in Fenway.  I guess what I’m really trying to say is that if Campbell isn’t going to play regularly then send him down.  I believe Mayer is a much better option at second base when Bergman returns.  No real place for Campbell.

We agree on this.

By the time Bregman returns, maybe KC has reasserted himself as a ML hitter, and the choice will be harder to make.

Now that the DH slot is open, there is another option for KC to play 70-80% or more.

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, cp176 said:

I understand and you are right.  David Hamilton may likely have run his course in Fenway.  I guess what I’m really trying to say is that if Campbell isn’t going to play regularly then send him down.  I believe Mayer is a much better option at second base when Bergman returns.  No real place for Campbell.

Campbell needs to be given the chance to hit his way out of his slump. 

[Randy Red Sox]

On 6/8/2025 at 8:21 AM, notin said:

Really?

.795 OPS, 2.0 fWAR, 6 Defensive Runs Saved.  All in 50 games?

He’s not Pudge Rodriguez, but he does have a legitimate chance to back up Cal Raleigh in the All Star game this year…

i must agree he has been a real pleasant surprise