A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Cora can't fix the rotation with this roster. All he can do is move somebody out and replace them with internal options. 

He's stuck with Kelly because of the other injuries in the bullpen. Breslow doesn't scout the waiver wire the way Bloom did. Bloom would have churned through some other DFA'd guys by now for sure. It's the only reason Zack Littell even played here. 

Some of those DFA pitchers Bloom brought in turned out to be pretty good elsewhere.  Littell is an obvious one. Joel Payamps was terrific for Milwaukee until this year…

[mvp 78]

6 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Breslow's scoreboard only counts for 2024 forward.  

 

If I ever see Breslow drinking WhistlePig, I'll have to disagree with this assertion. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

We can question the values, but the real issue with OPS is the number is completely unquantifiable.

If you see a BA of .300, you know that translates to 3 hits every 10 at bats.  A SLG of .400 translates to 4 total bases every 10 at bats.  An OBP of .350 is 35 times on base for every 100 PA.  But what does an OPS of .900 translate to? It’s just a “bigger is better” stat…

It's a vague "a little of this plus a little of that..." but still useful.

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

Some of those DFA pitchers Bloom brought in turned out to be pretty good elsewhere.  Littell is an obvious one. Joel Payamps was terrific for Milwaukee until this year…

I'm not saying they were all busts or anything, he would have just brought in a bunch of options to get innings out of. He was always churning the bottom of the 40 man. Breslow isn't really doing that as much. 

[Larry Cook]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Cora can't fix the rotation with this roster. All he can do is move somebody out and replace them with internal options. 

That is exactly what we are asking him to do!!

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not saying they were all busts or anything, he would have just brought in a bunch of options to get innings out of. He was always churning the bottom of the 40 man. Breslow isn't really doing that as much. 

With the budget Bloom was handed the bottom 10+ players on the 40 were often DFA level players. Looking at that 2020 roster is a joke.

Even by 2021, there were some real dregs at the bottom of the barrell. By the time Bloom left, the bottom of the 40 (and into the farm) was not really our weakness, in comparison to other teams: it was the lack of top talent.

[moonslav59]

Top Sox OPS

.938 Bregman

.919 Devers

.905 Refsnyder

.891 Toro

.831 Romy

.814 Narvaez

.792 Abreu

.746 Duran

.695 Rafaela, .675 Campbell, .670 Mayer, .639 Story

.608 Sogard, .580 Casas, .516 DHam, .472 Roman, .418 Wong, .355 Sabol

[Duran Is The Man]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Top Sox OPS

.938 Bregman

.919 Devers

.905 Refsnyder

.891 Toro

.831 Romy

.814 Narvaez

.792 Abreu

.746 Duran

.695 Rafaela, .675 Campbell, .670 Mayer, .639 Story

.608 Sogard, .580 Casas, .516 DHam, .472 Roman, .418 Wong, .355 Sabol

i sure hope Story has finally figured something out and keeps it going. Narvaez and Toro have me forget all about forgettable players like Casas and Wong.

what is the timeline on Bregman's return? any idea?

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

That is exactly what we are asking him to do!!

Who? 

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Who? 

Story?

[Maxbialystock]

21 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

That is exactly what we are asking him to do!!

Oh, come off it.   He is using the heck out of the bullpen and has used 8 different starters.  Houck is a bust after a solid 2024.  Crawford is on the IL. Bernardino already has 4 freaking errors in 26.2 IP.  

Cora ain't the problem.  Guys above him are.  I think Breslow is pretty good, but it's a fact that he dumped Sale and hired Giolito at the same salary.  If he had kept Sale and ignored Giolito, the Sox would have made it to the postseason last year and  be in the hunt this season.   They might still be in the hunt this year.  

 

[Maxbialystock]

17 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i sure hope Story has finally figured something out and keeps it going. Narvaez and Toro have me forget all about forgettable players like Casas and Wong.

what is the timeline on Bregman's return? any idea?

Agree on Story, Narvaez and Toro.  Breslow missed 2 months with the same injury 4 years ago, but he sounds like maybe early July this time.  

[Maxbialystock]

Last night was one of hope with a great start and what sure looked like one heckuva rookie.  

And now a dinger by the leftfielder!!! What's his name.  

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Oh, come off it.   He is using the heck out of the bullpen and has used 8 different starters.  Houck is a bust after a solid 2024.  Crawford is on the IL. Bernardino already has 4 freaking errors in 26.2 IP.  

Cora ain't the problem.  Guys above him are.  I think Breslow is pretty good, but it's a fact that he dumped Sale and hired Giolito at the same salary.  If he had kept Sale and ignored Giolito, the Sox would have made it to the postseason last year and  be in the hunt this season.   They might still be in the hunt this year.  

 

How do we know bres-slow was not ordered to move sale along????  Bres-slow has never sold low on any other traded player before !!!!

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

How do we know bres-slow was not ordered to move sale along????  Bres-slow has never sold low on any other traded player before !!!!

Max is a cool guy, but he can't get over an understandable trade that happened to backfire in every way possible: Sale wins CYA, Grissom sucks and the money saved was used on GIO.

Those 3 aspects of those 2 events outshadow all the good Brez has done, according to Max.

Brez was fleeced, because everyone knew Sale was poised to win the CYA, except him.

[moonslav59]

10 teams better than us, by record, in the AL, yet we are just 3 down in the WC race.

Weird season!

We have the 6th best run differential in the AL at +18. That's 68 better than LAA, who is ahead of us. 38 better than KCR and 32 better than CLE and SEA.

Very weird season!

[moonslav59]

We have to take one game at a time, but when you look ahead to the trade deadline (July 31st) you can see we have a real tough stretch sandwiched around that date:

Starting July 18:

3 @ CHC

3 @ PHI

3 LAD

3 @ MN

(Deadline OFF)

3 HOU

3 KCR

3 @ SDP

3 @ HOU

No real breather in that stretch of 8 straight series. For a team under .500, it's hard to call any stretch easy, but when you look at our games on the schedule before the All Star Break and that brutal 8 series stretch, I have to think we better be over .500 by the time we get to July 18th, and maybe a few games over.

Here are the series between now and July 18th:

9 series

Off Thursday

3 NYY

3 @ SEA

Day Off

3 @ SFG

3 @ LAA (This is no easy 4 series stretch, from any viewpoint- maybe hop for 6 and 6?)

Day Off

3 TOR

3 CIN

Off

3 @ WSH

3 COL

4 TBR

All Star Break (4 days off) These 16 games may make or break us. We may need to go 10-6 or better to expect to be possible buyers at the deadline.

 

 

 

[Nick]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We have to take one game at a time, but when you look ahead to the trade deadline (July 31st) you can see we have a real tough stretch sandwiched around that date:

Starting July 18:

3 @ CHC

3 @ PHI

3 LAD

3 @ MN

(Deadline OFF)

3 HOU

3 KCR

3 @ SDP

3 @ HOU

No real breather in that stretch of 8 straight series. For a team under .500, it's hard to call any stretch easy, but when you look at our games on the schedule before the All Star Break and that brutal 8 series stretch, I have to think we better be over .500 by the time we get to July 18th, and maybe a few games over.

Here are the series between now and July 18th:

9 series

Off Thursday

3 NYY

3 @ SEA

Day Off

3 @ SFG

3 @ LAA (This is no easy 4 series stretch, from any viewpoint- maybe hop for 6 and 6?)

Day Off

3 TOR

3 CIN

Off

3 @ WSH

3 COL

4 TBR

All Star Break (4 days off) These 16 games may make or break us. We may need to go 10-6 or better to expect to be possible buyers at the deadline.

 

 

 

The four teams in front of us for the wildcard spot (#6), all have negative run differential. We have positive 18 run differential and sits in #11 spot in AL. Jays are the only team with a negative run differential that is in the playoff if the season ended last night. 

[Larry Cook]

If Cora and bres-slow and Bailey can fix the rotation (after crochet),  we can make the playoffs!!! 

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

If Cora and bres-slow and Bailey can fix the rotation (after crochet),  we can make the playoffs!!! 

If Jesus H Christ showed up, he'd be able to turn the Gatorade into Blue Moon, fix Breggie's leg, feed all of Fenway with 6 Fenway Franks, but he'd pass on the rotation ills. Too hard! 

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If Jesus H Christ showed up, he'd be able to turn the Gatorade into Blue Moon, fix Breggie's leg, feed all of Fenway with 6 Fenway Franks, but he'd pass on the rotation ills. Too hard! 

Herschel?
 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If Jesus H Christ showed up, he'd be able to turn the Gatorade into Blue Moon, fix Breggie's leg, feed all of Fenway with 6 Fenway Franks, but he'd pass on the rotation ills. Too hard! 

Too funny!

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Herschel?
 

Jesus-Hyun Christ

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If Jesus H Christ showed up, he'd be able to turn the Gatorade into Blue Moon, fix Breggie's leg, feed all of Fenway with 6 Fenway Franks, but he'd pass on the rotation ills. Too hard! 

And yet desperate Dave figured out how to do it!!!!  You do not need to be Stephen Hawkings to figure this out!! You just need a superior baseball analytics department!!!  

[dgalehouse]

Oofah!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Blue Moon = dumb commercial.

Now it is. Now it's dumb. Now it's still dumb. Take your dumb peel outta my beer.

[mvp 78]

-14 DRS for Campbell. This is why they were willing to try him at 1B. He just may not be a MIFer going forward unless he can absolutely mash. 

[mvp 78]

I'm sorry @notin

 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

20 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Blue Moon = dumb commercial.

Now it is. Now it's dumb. Now it's still dumb. Take your dumb peel outta my beer.

Agreed, that's a nasty beer.

[Larry Cook]

Houck to start rehab assignment next Wednesday!!!!