A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

All true, but how would DD have handled the massive rebuild that included massive budget cuts. The budget cuts and rebuild plan were the culprits. 

Keeping DD for the rebuild would not have worked out, either, IMO. In fact, he may have ended up quitting being asked what was asked of Bloom.

Actually, dombrowski was pretty successful building the farm of both the expos and the marlins when he ran those franchises.

[Hitch]

17 hours ago, oldtimer said:

Interesting sidebar. Betts was a gold glover in right field but now I understand he is the Dodgers SS. Rafaela  has a similar multi-positional flexibility and his move would make room for Anthony, but the Sox haven't made that move even though the season is going down the tube. I have no understanding of what makes the Sox management tick.  It's time to make management changes. 

I'm not making the move off of centre with Rafaela, either. He is a supremely good defensive CF'er, and his hitting has improved this year. He's striking out less and hitting the ball harder. Still a ways for him to go, but he's not the issue, losing that defence would hurt and you make moves elsewhere.

Despite the worrying fact that Anthony continues to be seen a savior by this fan base, I'd rather we trade Abreu and bring up Anthony to play left and Duran to go into right. Either way, the results over the next few weeks will make something happen one way or another. 

Lou Merloni was a good listen on 310 to Left's pod yesterday. A man at breaking point with some of his frustrations with the team - mirrors a lot of what most are feeling I think. 

[Hitch]

17 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

It's a reluctance to turn the page on Trevor Story because he's a vet. 

I don't think so. They could (and probably should) have sent Campbell back down for a spell at Worcester by now, which would have opened up a spot in the infield for Rafaela if they were that way inclined, and they haven't.

It's more that they (rightly imo) don't want to move Raf off of CF for anything if they can help it. 

[Bellhorn04]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

All true, but how would DD have handled the massive rebuild that included massive budget cuts. The budget cuts and rebuild plan were the culprits. 

Keeping DD for the rebuild would not have worked out, either, IMO. In fact, he may have ended up quitting being asked what was asked of Bloom.

Of course.  Firing DD and cutting payroll "went hand in hand". 

The only argument is that Henry should have done neither.  You're not going to find anyone arguing that they should have kept DD and cut payroll.  That's a contradiction in terms.   

[Bellhorn04]

Is the talk about making Little Raf a super-sub on hold for the time being? 😀

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Of course.  Firing DD and cutting payroll "went hand in hand". 

As I pointed out above, that's not necessarily true.

He was pretty successful building the farms of both the marlins and the expos.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

As I pointed out above, that's not necessarily true.

He was pretty successful building the farms of both the marlins and the expos.

Those were a while ago.  Not sure he'd be up for doing that sort of thing again.  

He seems to have gotten exactly what he wanted with the Phillies.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Those were a while ago.  Not sure he'd be up for doing that sort of thing again.  

He seems to have gotten exactly what he wanted with the Phillies.

That may very well be, but it's not a contradiction.

He's certainly capable of cutting costs and building the farm. There's no doubt the guy can evaluate talent.

[moonslav59]

I'm not one for change just for change sake, but you gott look  at some of these numbers and ask "Why?" or "How can we change this?"

Our 3rd highest PA player is hitting .591 (Story.) If you can't bring yourself to replace him, then bat him 8th or 9th. It's good to see we finally demoted KC in the lineup. He's 6th in PAs and batting .658.

The Houck situation kinda took care of itself, as he is on the IL. He's tied for second in GS and while out has fallen to 5th in IP with his 8.04 ERA. However, our 5th leading GS pitcher and 5th in IP among players on the current 26 man roster is Giolito at 6.42. I gotta say, the plug needs to be pulled, if not now, then after his next disastrous start, which will likely be, next week. OPS Against by SP'ers:

.920 Houck (203 PAs against is second most)

.884 Giolito (150 PAs against is 6th, just behind Dobbins)

.836 Newcomb is gone.

.758 to .766 are the next 4: Fitts, Bello, Buehler & Dobbins.)

.569 Crochet stands alone.

I don't see any major issue with the pen order of most batters faced:

113 Whitlock is the long man .641

114 Weissert might be questionable at #2, but he's at .620.

103 Bernardino has done very well at .496

99 Chapman has been awesome .498.

90 Slaten at .465 lead the pen in OPS Against and missed some time

85 Newcomb at .791 is gone

81 Wilson at .584 has been fantastic.

59 Hendriks at .692 is on the IL.

57 Kelly at .739 has struggled.

52 Wink at .622 seems to still be in the Cora doghouse.

35 Guerrero at .362 should see more action.

33 Criswell at .830 needs to start.

21 Burdi at .649 may get a longer look.

Surprisingly, the pen OPSA numbers look decent to downright good.

I know some here poo-poo platoons and basing who plays on L-R splits, but here are the numbers:

vs RHPs (PAs)

.954 Devers (193 is #3 in PAs)

.915 Bregman (168) on IL

.875 Refsnyder (24)

.847 Abreu (198 is #1 in PAs)

.809 Narvaez (127)

.800 Toro (55)

.799 Romy (40)

.785 Duran (198 is #1)

.702 KC (166)

.678 Rafaela (155)

.561 Sogard (34)

.552 Story (190)

.548 DHam (78)

.545 Mayer (29)

.477 Casas (100) on IL

.358 Wong (55)

Some RHBs are doing well vs RHPs.

Vs LHPs:

1.409 Casas (12) Out for season

1.000 Bregman (58) what we got him for is now on IL

.962 Refsnyder is a god vs lefties (47)

.842 Devers (99) forevers #1 in PAs

.819 Narvaez balanced batter, so far (50)

.786 Wong (10)

.782 Rafaela (63) bucking his career reverse splits

.727 Story (56) maybe needs to be platooned.

.684 Sogard (9)

.674 Romy (30) This was his strong area in '24.

.672 Duran (99 is #1)

.641 Toro (15)

.569 Abreu (30) doing nothing to move towards a non platoon

.524 KC (60) maybe needs to sit vs lefties.

.533 DHam (6),

.333 Mayer (6) 

I'd start Criswell over Gio.

I'd platoon Story with Mayer (Mayer plays 3B vs LHPs, but I'm not sure who plays 3B vs RHPs. Toro?)

I'd give Guerrero more innings in the pen.

I still think an Anthony call-up would help, but not at Rafaela's expense. The Abreu-Ref platoon makes our RF one of the best in MLB, and Duran has done better, recently (.920 since May 16th.) The only way he can play, without sitting an OF'er is to DH and move Devers to 1B, but I won't opine on that, right now, except to present my plan:

1. L Duran LF

2. L Abreu/ R Refsnyder RF

3. R Narvaez C

4. L Devers 1B

5. L Mayer SS/3B

6. S Toro 3B/R Story SS

7. L Anthony DH

8. R Rafaela CF

9. L DHam/ R Campbell 2B

Rotation: Crochet, Buehler, Dobbins, Bello, Fitts/Criswell

Pen: Chapman, Slaten, Wilson,  Whitlock, Bernardino, Guerrero, Weissert, Fitts> Criswell, then:  Wink>Burdi>Kelly (Maybe Fitts ends up taking Dobbins' or Criswell's slot in the rotation, after some time.)

 

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Of course.  Firing DD and cutting payroll "went hand in hand". 

The only argument is that Henry should have done neither.  You're not going to find anyone arguing that they should have kept DD and cut payroll.  That's a contradiction in terms.   

Agreed. I'm just saying that many who say firing DD was the biggest mistake, don't mention the budget. We can hem and haw and say "What if...?" all we want, but the budget was going to be cut, so I don't see firing DD as the issue.

Bloom largely failed as the rebuild GM, but he seemed better suited for that task at hand.

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

That may very well be, but it's not a contradiction.

He's certainly capable of cutting costs and building the farm. There's no doubt the guy can evaluate talent.

The unresolved question is exactly why Henry fired him.  There were reports that they were not seeing eye to eye on the direction of the team, which to me suggests that Henry had revealed he wanted to cut payroll.

We do know now that DD had talks with other teams about trading Mookie at the 2019 deadline, but they called it off when the Sox had a little good streak that raised hopes. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. I'm just saying that many who say firing DD was the biggest mistake, don't mention the budget. We can hem and haw and say "What if...?" all we want, but the budget was going to be cut, so I don't see firing DD as the issue.

IMHO the issue was the new direction Henry wanted to go in, plain and simple.  

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Is the talk about making Little Raf a super-sub on hold for the time being? 😀

It's one of the options to get Anthony on the roster. Are we still calling him "just the 9th hitter" or is he something more? If he's more than a 9th hitter now, I don't want to be told WELL ACTUALLY if he goes back to OPSing 600 by the end of the season. 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

As I pointed out above, that's not necessarily true.

He was pretty successful building the farms of both the marlins and the expos.

Kinda-sorta, but not a top 3-5 farm like the Sox reached under Bloom-Breslow.

Also, would he have stood for what Bloom did? Trading Betts was one thing, but not only was his contract cost not replaced, there were further cuts down the road for 2-3 more years. We never replaced JD, Porcello, Price, Nate, ERod and other rather large contracts. I guess we can say we tried to replace Bogey with Story, but that's it. Every stud we lost from the 2018 team was not replaced, in kind or nearly in kind.

While several prospects DD did not trade went on to do well, Devers, Houck, Duran, Rafaela, Crawford and Bello, to name a few, many took years to make an impact. Maybe DD would have drafted college players over HS players and saw a quicker ROI, but I doubt he could have rebuilt the farm better than it ended up being rebuilt, especially if we won more, which is your premise, and had lower draft picks.

No Mayer draft slot.

Maybe no comp picks (Anthony & Campbell)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

For the Red Sox fans I know, Roman Anthony isn't regarded as a Lynn/Rice clone who will be promoted and instantly carry Boston to the playoffs and beyond. 

Not this year.

The main reason fans want guys like Anthony, Mayer and Campbell in Boston is new faces with new possibilities. These are players who've succeeded at lower levels and fans want to see what they can do in The Show.

We all know what the Sox' big league rosters have produced for the past 3 1/3 seasons: suckitude. We're tired and ready for change. And the best part of the promise of youth is that even if The Big Three falter this year, there will still be hope they can become part of the core of future Red Sox contenders.

The only hope we have for a guy like Romy (appreciated as a utility man) is that he doesn't have to start at 1B and bat clean-up. The hope for Giolito is that he doesn't have to start on the mound...

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

 

1. L Duran LF

2. L Abreu/ R Refsnyder RF

3. R Narvaez C

4. L Devers 1B

5. L Mayer SS/3B

6. S Toro 3B/R Story SS

7. L Anthony DH

8. R Rafaela CF

9. L DHam/ R Campbell 2B

Rotation: Crochet, Buehler, Dobbins, Bello, Fitts/Criswell

Pen: Chapman, Slaten, Wilson,  Whitlock, Bernardino, Guerrero, Weissert, Fitts> Criswell, then:  Wink>Burdi>Kelly (Maybe Fitts ends up taking Dobbins' or Criswell's slot in the rotation, after some time.)

 

Again, the assistant GM devers is never going to allow this to happen.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's one of the options to get Anthony on the roster. Are we still calling him "just the 9th hitter" or is he something more? If he's more than a 9th hitter now, I don't want to be told WELL ACTUALLY if he goes back to OPSing 600 by the end of the season. 

Does bWAR mean anything?  Rafaela's is now 2.4, on pace to be over 5.  

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

IMHO the issue was the new direction Henry wanted to go in, plain and simple.  

It's nearly impossible to not agree with this.

It's debatable if DD would have agreed to work under the conditions Bloom was placed, or if he'd have won more games while still building our farm into a top 3 ranked system.

We can't know for sure, but we do know some friction started after 2018. We did not pay to replace Kimbrell & Kelly and signalled the inevitable Betts trade to come, if not at the 2019 deadline, then the following winter, for sure. DD was not happy with this new direction and let it be known.

IMO, the relationship was doomed to fail, once JH made the big choice to rebuild the team and revamp the philosophy.

 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Kinda-sorta, but not a top 3-5 farm like the Sox reached under Bloom-Breslow.

What was the highest ranking it had nationally under Bloom (not FanGraphs)?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Does bWAR mean anything?  Rafaela's is now 2.4, on pace to be over 5.  

Is answering a question with another unrelated question going to get you the response you want? Probably not. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

For the Red Sox fans I know, Roman Anthony isn't regarded as a Lynn/Rice clone who will be promoted and instantly carry Boston to the playoffs and beyond. 

Not this year.

The main reason fans want guys like Anthony, Mayer and Campbell in Boston is new faces with new possibilities. These are players who've succeeded at lower levels and fans want to see what they can do in The Show.

We all know what the Sox' big league rosters have produced for the past 3 1/3 seasons: suckitude. We're tired and ready for change. And the best part of the promise of youth is that even if The Big Three falter this year, there will still be hope they can become part of the core of future Red Sox contenders.

The only hope we have for a guy like Romy (appreciated as a utility man) is that he doesn't have to start at 1B and bat clean-up. The hope for Giolito is that he doesn't have to start on the mound...

At the risk of repeating myself, Anthony will get his chance at some point. What will change in August or next season? An injury? An OF trade? Why wait? get his feet wet now, or once that extra year of control is in the bank.

If we have to trade Duran, Abreu or Rafaela, then so be it. It's not like we'd just hand one away for nothing. We do have other serious needs, like SP, 1B and more...

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is answering a question with another unrelated question going to get you the response you want? Probably not. 

OK.  

Little Raf's fWAR is at 1.7.  That projects to about 4 for the season.  So both systems have him way above average.

I think he's showing he has the game to be the full time CFer going forward.

But yeah, that's predicated on him being able to keep the OPS around .675-.700.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

At the risk of repeating myself, Anthony will get his chance at some point. What will change in August or next season? An injury? An OF trade? Why wait? get his feet wet now, or once that extra year of control is in the bank.

If we have to trade Duran, Abreu or Rafaela, then so be it. It's not like we'd just hand one away for nothing. We do have other serious needs, like SP, 1B and more...

At this moment in the history of the universe, it feels like Abreu is the guy we would prefer to trade.

But it's not a surprise there's some significant interest in Duran right now.

[Bellhorn04]

Somebody has to ask this one:

Was trading Priester a great idea?

His peripherals are unimpressive but he's been getting guys out, with several decent appearances in a row.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What was the highest ranking it had nationally under Bloom (not FanGraphs)?

You think the last 2 years ranking have little to do with Bloom?

Bloom also added some prospects that graduated so quickly, we tend to forget they were prospects, and who did little to raise our rankings, like Whitlock and Abreu.

I think BA had us 10th in 2023, but we were 30th in 2019 and around 20th for '20-'21 (the COVID years). We also had some penalties.

 Bloom brought us Whitlock, Abreu, Kelly, Wink, Wong, DHam and others through non draft or IFA methods.

He drafted and IFA'd: Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Guerrero, Arias, Romero, Valera, Early, Dobbins, Cespedes and others. We also traded some of his prospects, like Yorke.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK.  

Little Raf's fWAR is at 1.7.  That projects to about 4 for the season.  So both systems have him way above average.

I think he's showing he has the game to be the full time CFer going forward.

But yeah, that's predicated on him being able to keep the OPS around .675-.700.

Are we going to move on from the dumb "well he's just the 9th hitter" argument though? That shields him from criticism from when he stinks. When he's going well, it's easy to say that his offense is enough to be worthy of CF. 

The defensive parts of WAR don't prorate the way offensive WAR does. For example, the highest DRS last year was 22. Rafaela won't go much higher than that and probably not even reach 20 TBH. He won't end up with 30 DRS. It's just not really accurate to say "he's projecting to be at X WAR at year end." It's not entirely how it works IMO. 

The reason we talk about benching Rafaela is because we want Anthony on the roster. The ways to do that are: Rafaela Super UTIL, Rafaela/Duran platoon or trade somebody. The Super UTIL idea potentially works because of how awful the MIF has been this year. If you are strong in the OF and weak in the IF, but have an OFer than can play IF, moving him to the IF isn't the dumbest idea. The platoon works because both guys can play CF and have splits. People want Anthony up BECAUSE THIS TEAM HAS UNDERACHIEVED with the roster it currently has. If they keep running the same guys out there, it's not going to get much better.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You think the last 2 years ranking have little to do with Bloom?

Bloom also added some prospects that graduated so quickly, we tend to forget they were prospects, and who did little to raise our rankings, like Whitlock and Abreu.

I think BA had us 10th in 2023, but we were 30th in 2019 and around 20th for '20-'21 (the COVID years). We also had some penalties.

 Bloom brought us Whitlock, Abreu, Kelly, Wink, Wong, DHam and others through non draft or IFA methods.

He drafted and IFA'd: Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Guerrero, Arias, Romero, Valera, Early, Dobbins, Cespedes and others. We also traded some of his prospects, like Yorke.

I believe our current ranking has a lot to do with Bloom. I was just asking you the question because you stated it was a top 3-5 ranked system under Bloom and Breslow. I figured you knew the rankings? 😑

SHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESH....

[mvp 78]

54 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

At this moment in the history of the universe, it feels like Abreu is the guy we would prefer to trade.

But it's not a surprise there's some significant interest in Duran right now.

I'd prefer NOT to trade Abreu. I don't know who would play RF if they moved him. Anthony is mainly a LFer in WOO. I also believe his skills will age better than Duran's. 

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

IMHO the issue was the new direction Henry wanted to go in, plain and simple.  

yeah....and how has that worked out for him? LOL.

[Hitch]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd prefer to trade Abreu. I don't know who would play RF if they moved him. Anthony is mainly a LFer in WOO. I also believe his skills will age better than Duran's. 

Has to be Duran to RF in that scenario.