A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

14 hours ago, Old Red said:

Like I said you keep thinking  your disagreement is with me, but it’s really with Cora who is the one to continue to bat Raffy 2nd while IGNORING your General facts, and General data, and I guess you are also saying Cora is not educated enough to make a decision like you would on an educated guess.MSNS.

Cora hasn't got the balls to do anything with Devers except coddle him.

Cora's a major part of this team's problems. He has to go.

[Old Red]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

(FWAR, bWAR)

2.7 Bregman (2.4, 3.0) on IL

2.2 Devers (2.1, 2.3) Da MAN!

1.9 Narvaez (1.8, 1.9) WOW!

1.9 Abreu (1.6, 2.1)

1.6 Rafaela (1.2, 1.9)

1.2 Duran (1.1, 1.3)

0.6 Refsnyder (0.5, 0.7)

0.3 Romy (0.2, 0.3)

0.2 Toro (0.2, o.1)

About a 0.0 KC (0.1, -0.3), Mayer (0.0, 0.1), DHam (-0.1, +o.2), Story (-0.2, +0.1)

-0.2 Sogard (-0.3, -0.2)

-0.7 Casas (-0.6, 0.9 is out for season)

Pitchers:

2.3 Crochet 2.2, 2.4

0.9 Chapman 0.7, 1.1

0.5 Dobbins 0.8, 0.2

0.5 Wilson 0.5, 0.5

0.4 Whitlock 0.4, 0.3

0.4 Buehler 0.3, 0.4

0.4 Bernardino 0.3, 0.4

0.4 Weissert 0.2, 0.6

0.3 Slaten 0.5, 0.0

0.3 Fitts 0.2, 0.4

0.2 Bello 0.0, 0.4

0.2 Giolito 0.2, 0.1

about a 0.0:  Wink , Guerrero, Burdi

-0.2 Criswell -0.1, -0.3 and Hendriks

-0.3 Kelly 

-1.0  Houck -0.4, -1.6

(FWAR had Newcomb at +0.5, but bWAR at -0.2)

 

How about a  Div standings update that you’ve slacked off on lately.🤫

Yankees. -10 games

Toronto-Tampa. -4 games

Baltimore (last place) + 4 games

all in the loss column.

does all your stats tell you this? The eye test does.🤔

[Old Red]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We are 6 games away from the 40% mark on the season. We are 5 games past the 33% mark of the season (54 games.) Here are the fWAR and bWAR averages of our players still on the team:

(FWAR, bWAR)

2.7 Bregman (2.4, 3.0) on IL

2.2 Devers (2.1, 2.3) Da MAN!

1.9 Narvaez (1.8, 1.9) WOW!

1.9 Abreu (1.6, 2.1)

1.6 Rafaela (1.2, 1.9)

1.2 Duran (1.1, 1.3)

0.6 Refsnyder (0.5, 0.7)

0.3 Romy (0.2, 0.3)

0.2 Toro (0.2, o.1)

About a 0.0 KC (0.1, -0.3), Mayer (0.0, 0.1), DHam (-0.1, +o.2), Story (-0.2, +0.1)

-0.2 Sogard (-0.3, -0.2)

-0.7 Casas (-0.6, 0.9 is out for season)

Pitchers:

2.3 Crochet 2.2, 2.4

0.9 Chapman 0.7, 1.1

0.5 Dobbins 0.8, 0.2

0.5 Wilson 0.5, 0.5

0.4 Whitlock 0.4, 0.3

0.4 Buehler 0.3, 0.4

0.4 Bernardino 0.3, 0.4

0.4 Weissert 0.2, 0.6

0.3 Slaten 0.5, 0.0

0.3 Fitts 0.2, 0.4

0.2 Bello 0.0, 0.4

0.2 Giolito 0.2, 0.1

about a 0.0:  Wink , Guerrero, Burdi

-0.2 Criswell -0.1, -0.3 and Hendriks

-0.3 Kelly 

-1.0  Houck -0.4, -1.6

(FWAR had Newcomb at +0.5, but bWAR at -0.2)

 

How about a wildcard standings update that you’ve have been slacking off on lately.🤫

2 teams. -6 games

1 team. - 5 games

3 teams. -4 games

2 teams. - 1 game

All in the loss colum.

Do all your stats tell you this?
The eye test does.🤔

[moonslav59]

14 hours ago, Old Red said:

How about a  Div standings update that you’ve slacked off on lately.🤫

Yankees. -10 games

Toronto-Tampa. -4 games

Baltimore (last place) + 4 games

all in the loss column.

does all your stats tell you this? The eye test does.🤔

Not sure why you are so fixated on the timing of my standings, but thanks for taking up my slack.

[moonslav59]

13 hours ago, Old Red said:

How about a wildcard standings update that you’ve have been slacking off on lately.🤫

2 teams. -6 games

1 team. - 5 games

3 teams. -4 games

2 teams. - 1 game

All in the loss colum.

Do all your stats tell you this?
The eye test does.🤔

You do know the "eye test" pertains to actually watching games and players not watching numbers and data on a page.

More LMAO.

[notin]

52 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You do know the "eye test" pertains to actually watching games and players not watching numbers and data on a page.

More LMAO.

Or highlights…

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, notin said:

Or highlights…

Yes, like watching the highlight of Jeter's catch diving into the stands and saying he's a GG SS by the eye test.

[Larry Cook]

Crochet gets my vote as MVP thus far this season! 
 

Starting pitching quality over quantity is why we need to call Pittsburgh and make a blockbuster before Baltimore does!!!!

[illinoisredsox]

6 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Crochet gets my vote as MVP thus far this season! 
 

Starting pitching quality over quantity is why we need to call Pittsburgh and make a blockbuster before Baltimore does!!!!

Depends on what you're willing to give up.  From what I've heard, the Pirates want at least 1 if not 2 of the big 3.

I'd feel better about such a deal if Dombrowski were the GM/PBO.  He had a knack for identifying the keepers from the pretenders (keeping Devers and trading Moncada in the Sale deal, for example).  Neither Bloom nor Breslow seems to be able to do that.

[Old Red]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Not sure why you are so fixated on the timing of my standings, but thanks for taking up my slack.

You are like the groundhog who only comes out of his hole on a special occasion to predict the weather. You only come out from behind the curtain when the conditions are Favorable to post the standings. 🤭🤔

[cp176]

On 5/31/2025 at 1:39 PM, Bellhorn04 said:

A lot of it is analytics and the third time through the order stuff.  It's just a total different approach to pitching now.  They want guys to throw max effort on every pitch and not try to pace themselves.

I don't like it either.  I like seeing a starter go 7-8 innings as much as anyone.

But the game has changed and we can either just accept it or complain 24/7, right?   

I’m going to go the complaining route.  Gives me something to do.  Our big guy going 112 today?  So obviously something changed since his last start.  He got a lot stronger.  There is 0 rhyme or reason to what is going on.  Maybe panic mode is setting in?  I think that it makes more sense than they are coming to their senses.  

[Bellhorn04]

29 minutes ago, cp176 said:

I’m going to go the complaining route.  Gives me something to do.  Our big guy going 112 today?  So obviously something changed since his last start.  He got a lot stronger.  There is 0 rhyme or reason to what is going on.  Maybe panic mode is setting in?  I think that it makes more sense than they are coming to their senses.  

We all have different things that bother us, I think.  I did mucho complaining last year about the Sale trade so I was right there with you on that one.

[Bellhorn04]

As for Crochet's pitch counts, this isn't going to make anyone feel any better, but I've read about them having schedules for the max number of pitches thrown over a stretch of 3 starts, not just max counts for one game. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

You are like the groundhog who only comes out of his hole on a special occasion to predict the weather. You only come out from behind the curtain when the conditions are Favorable to post the standings. 🤭🤔

Projecting, again, I see.

[cp176]

42 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We all have different things that bother us, I think.  I did mucho complaining last year about the Sale trade so I was right there with you on that one.

Great minds think alike you think?  Probably not.  

[cp176]

40 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

As for Crochet's pitch counts, this isn't going to make anyone feel any better, but I've read about them having schedules for the max number of pitches thrown over a stretch of 3 starts, not just max counts for one game. 

Kind of sounds like the easy way out to me.  Gathering information to help making any decision is worthwhile but I still think going on your instincts every now and then works.  

[Bellhorn04]

Crochet leads MLB in innings pitched.  He pitched 146 innings last year, 13 in 2023 and 0 in 2022.

Keeping him healthy is arguably the team's most important job.  

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Crochet leads MLB in innings pitched.  He pitched 146 innings last year, 13 in 2023 and 0 in 2022.

Keeping him healthy is arguably the team's most important job.  

Crochet is already up to 82 innings, and on pace for 200+, which would be way past where he’s been before.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Projecting, again, I see.

Nope. Just stating past history.

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Crochet leads MLB in innings pitched.  He pitched 146 innings last year, 13 in 2023 and 0 in 2022.

Keeping him healthy is arguably the team's most important job.  

They're going to have him skip a start at some point.  

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Nope. Just stating past history.

Let's leave yesterday's argument behind and have a nice week, ok? 

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Nope. Just stating past history.

You don't even know what projecting means.

I know I post the standing when we are close or in the lead. I don't deny it, or make excuses. It seems obvious why.

You deny, deflect or don't answer when we point out how you post 3 times more, when things are going badly.

[notin]

8 hours ago, illinoisredsox said:

Depends on what you're willing to give up.  From what I've heard, the Pirates want at least 1 if not 2 of the big 3.

I'd feel better about such a deal if Dombrowski were the GM/PBO.  He had a knack for identifying the keepers from the pretenders (keeping Devers and trading Moncada in the Sale deal, for example).  Neither Bloom nor Breslow seems to be able to do that.

Little early to make such a call about Breslow.  But picking the keepers is probably easier than we realize.  When acquiring Beckett, Cherington and Hoyer rebuffed the asks for Pedroia and Lester in favor of Hanley and Anibal Sanchez.  While both players he gave up had good careers, they were clearly the right choices to give up over the ones he kept.

 

Bloom never gave up any good prospects either.  (I think the best young player he dealt away was Chavis.)  But he never really got involved in acquiring the type of stars that required giving them up.   Talking about buyer type deals with Bloom; Mookie was when he was acting more like a seller…

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

Bloom never gave up any good prospects either.  (I think the best young player he dealt away was Chavis.)  he never really got involved in acquiring the type of stars that required giving them up.   Talking about buyer type deals with Bloom; Mookie was when he was acting more like a seller…

Bloom never traded a top prospect and barely traded many mid levels, and while some think that was by his choice, I think the priorities given to him were to build up the farm via trades. 

Many of the trades he made for MLB players, also included a prospect or two: 

Verdugo plus Downs/Wong

JBJ plus DHam/Binelas

Franchy plus Wink plus others

Pivetta plus Seabold

Ottavino plus F German and cash for nothing

Plus many straight out vets for prospects or recently graduated prospects:

Vaz for Abreu and EValdez

Springs & Mazza for Ro Hernandez & Sogard

Moreland, Pillar and others for prospects

I'm sure I'm missing a few.

The highest ranked prospect he traded, I think, was Aldo Ramirez, who was maybe 9th on SP.com

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

9 hours ago, illinoisredsox said:

From what I've heard, the Pirates want at least 1 if not 2 of the big 3.

Where exactly have you "heard" this?

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Let's leave yesterday's argument behind and have a nice week, ok? 

Ok.👍

[Larry Cook]

New York Times reporting that San Diego is showing interest in Duran!!!!! 
 

since it is the times, I have no idea as to the accuracy of this article!!!!

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

New York Times reporting that San Diego is showing interest in Duran!!!!! 
 

since it is the times, I have no idea as to the accuracy of this article!!!!

I've heard that a lot of teams are sniffing around the Sox, AS THEY SHOULD BE! Sox already showed the willingness to trade in season (Priester) and are under .500. Duran, Chapman and others could probably be had for the right price. 

For Duran: Salas (C), Nett (RHP) and a low level arm that the Sox like. 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I've heard that a lot of teams are sniffing around the Sox, AS THEY SHOULD BE! Sox already showed the willingness to trade in season (Priester) and are under .500. Duran, Chapman and others could probably be had for the right price. 

For Duran: Salas (C), Nett (RHP) and a low level arm that the Sox like. 

I'm kinda thinking (hoping) we found our catcher in Narvaez.

If I trade Duran (or Abreu,) it would be for a pitcher as the major get. Since Rafaela plays an awesome CF and Abreu is a GG type RF'er, it does make sense to trade Duran. Anthony's best slot is probably LF, too.

That being said, Duran is our third best offensive player, and our offense has been struggling. We have to hope Anthony can replace Duran's numbers, without a long learning curve. (Assuming we do this and pack in the 2025 season, we'd need Anthony doing very well in 2026.)

Maybe if Story goes on a hot streak, we can find a taker for him, without having to pay such a big chunk of his deal, as we would, now.

I also think we may have to decide, earlier than maybe we wanted to, which two to keep from Mayer, KC and Arias. I realize one can play 3B, if Bregman bolts, but we also have Romero and slight hopes for improvements from Grissom/DHam/Romy.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm kinda thinking (hoping) we found our catcher in Narvaez.

If I trade Duran (or Abreu,) it would be for a pitcher as the major get. Since Rafaela plays an awesome CF and Abreu is a GG type RF'er, it does make sense to trade Duran. Anthony's best slot is probably LF, too.

That being said, Duran is our third best offensive player, and our offense has been struggling. We have to hope Anthony can replace Duran's numbers, without a long learning curve. (Assuming we do this and pack in the 2025 season, we'd need Anthony doing very well in 2026.)

Maybe if Story goes on a hot streak, we can find a taker for him, without having to pay such a big chunk of his deal, as we would, now.

I also think we may have to decide, earlier than maybe we wanted to, which two to keep from Mayer, KC and Arias. I realize one can play 3B, if Bregman bolts, but we also have Romero and slight hopes for improvements from Grissom/DHam/Romy.

These days, you need 2 Catchers. I think Narvaez is great, but I don't know how long his bat will hold up. Padres don't seem to have a pitcher that's MLB ready towards the top of their rankings, so I didn't add one.