A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

How many times do you want to be wrong? I have never said wins are a major stat in evaluating how good a SP is. I have repeatedly said it’s the first thing I look at, and then go from there.MSNS.

The first thing you look at is not "major?"

More silliness.

BTW, "major" does not mean even majority. It just means important. 

I know you struggle with the true meanings of words, so maybe this will help.

 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

You are replying to my post that stated that Crochet is a good pitcher who deserves to have a better record. You say that you don't accept that he is mediocre. I didn't say he was mediocre. You are just trying to be argumentative.  I am wasting my time. 

You have argued that wins is a major component of evaluating a pitcher, right?

If I am wrong, I apologize ahead of time.

[Old Red]

44 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've already agreed, it's impossible to know for sure, and even if we plugged in the actual 2025 OBPs of who would have batter in front of Devers, and who would have taken Devers' 2 slot (or who bats 3rd if Bregman bats 2nd) butI think it is 100% safe to say, they'd have gotten on base more than Rafaela's 192 PAs (8th and 9th slot) Narvaez (120) and a mix of DHam, Wong and others (100 or so.)

Do you actually doubt this notion, in general?

There is no certainty on projected numbers for either side of the argument, but you are the only one claiming that if I cannot prove my position, I must be wrong.

It's just plain silly, to me, to think Devers has had more rbi opportunities with Duran, Rafaela, Narvaez and DHam ahead of him that he would have gotten with Bregman, Abreu/Ref and Duran ahead of him.

Why don't you give just one reason why you think this would not be true?

Like you said it’s IMPOSSIBLE to know for sure, so all you are going on is assuming. That’s a fact. Abreu has a .267 in the 3 hole, and a .188 in the 4 hole, so you assume that will translate to being better. Why don’t you ask Cora why he’s not following your science, and batting Raffy 4th instead of 2nd, because that’s the one you must really have the problem with. He’s the one making the decisions. MSNS.

[dgalehouse]

I guess that I am not explaining myself very well.  I am not making an evaluation of pitching talent. I am simply stating that we all need to deal with the bottom-line reality. You can't ignore that and focus on all the peripherals. Like the old "can't see the forest for the trees" thing.  Of course, team wins and losses are what is important. And the pitching staff is an important part of the team. You can like it or not like it, but Crochet is 4-4.  A very hard luck 4-4 no question. I think it is fair to say that we were all expecting better.  But 4-4 is what it is.  You can't text fangraphs and get it changed, That's all. 

[cp176]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Our single biggest problem is the rotation. At 4 plus innings per start, our bullpen is being over utilized and come August, they will all have dead arms 
 

 

I agree so why the ridiculously low pitch counts for most of the rotation?

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

I guess that I am not explaining myself very well.  I am not making an evaluation of pitching talent. I am simply stating that we all need to deal with the bottom-line reality. You can't ignore that and focus on all the peripherals. Like the old "can't see the forest for the trees" thing.  Of course, team wins and losses are what is important. And the pitching staff is an important part of the team. You can like it or not like it, but Crochet is 4-4.  A very hard luck 4-4 no question. I think it is fair to say that we were all expecting better.  But 4-4 is what it is.  You can't text fangraphs and get it changed, That's all. 

You have to remember that the mere mention of a pitchers W-L record is a strike against you in the first place, and it sets off all the bells, and whistles. Very predictable, and very accurate with what’s to follow.

[Bellhorn04]

20 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

I guess that I am not explaining myself very well.  I am not making an evaluation of pitching talent. I am simply stating that we all need to deal with the bottom-line reality. You can't ignore that and focus on all the peripherals. Like the old "can't see the forest for the trees" thing.  Of course, team wins and losses are what is important. And the pitching staff is an important part of the team. You can like it or not like it, but Crochet is 4-4.  A very hard luck 4-4 no question. I think it is fair to say that we were all expecting better.  But 4-4 is what it is.  You can't text fangraphs and get it changed, That's all. 

Everyone knows this.

[dgalehouse]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Everyone knows this.

That's good. It will save them the trouble. 

[Bellhorn04]

19 minutes ago, cp176 said:

I agree so why the ridiculously low pitch counts for most of the rotation?

A lot of it is analytics and the third time through the order stuff.  It's just a total different approach to pitching now.  They want guys to throw max effort on every pitch and not try to pace themselves.

I don't like it either.  I like seeing a starter go 7-8 innings as much as anyone.

But the game has changed and we can either just accept it or complain 24/7, right?   

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Like you said it’s IMPOSSIBLE to know for sure, so all you are going on is assuming. That’s a fact. Abreu has a .267 in the 3 hole, and a .188 in the 4 hole, so you assume that will translate to being better. Why don’t you ask Cora why he’s not following your science, and batting Raffy 4th instead of 2nd, because that’s the one you must really have the problem with. He’s the one making the decisions. MSNS.

Yes, I'm assuming, but I'm basing my assumptions on facts and data and making an educated guess. 

You just dismiss my position summarily without any counter evidence or even anecdotal or eye test reasonings given.

You won't even answer the simplest of questions, like do you really think having people with lower OBPs ahead of you will give you the same or more RBI opportunities than when having players with higher OBps ahead of you?

I would like to guess I know you know the answer but just don't want to admit it, but then I look back at all your silliness and have to wonder that you don't accept facts, data and reality.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

I guess that I am not explaining myself very well.  I am not making an evaluation of pitching talent. I am simply stating that we all need to deal with the bottom-line reality. You can't ignore that and focus on all the peripherals. Like the old "can't see the forest for the trees" thing.  Of course, team wins and losses are what is important. And the pitching staff is an important part of the team. You can like it or not like it, but Crochet is 4-4.  A very hard luck 4-4 no question. I think it is fair to say that we were all expecting better.  But 4-4 is what it is.  You can't text fangraphs and get it changed, That's all. 

Nobody has ever argued fangraphs or any advanced metrics change a W-L record.

[dgalehouse]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Pitcher W-L record is becoming even more meaningless as managers (including Cora last night) obviously have no compunction any more about pulling the starter in the 5th inning when the team is leading.

In last night's game the win was awarded to Whitlock in one of those "which relief pitcher deserved it most" judgment call deals. 

A manager makes in game decisions according to his feel for the situation. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. I have seen many instances where the manager has stuck with a struggling pitcher in an effort to make him eligible for the win.  

[dgalehouse]

40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You have argued that wins is a major component of evaluating a pitcher, right?

If I am wrong, I apologize ahead of time.

  Sure. It always has been for starting pitchers. It is only fairly recently that the popularity of analytics has caused people to discount wins.  

[Bellhorn04]

Please see new thread! 

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I'm assuming, but I'm basing my assumptions on facts and data and making an educated guess. 

You just dismiss my position summarily without any counter evidence or even anecdotal or eye test reasonings given.

You won't even answer the simplest of questions, like do you really think having people with lower OBPs ahead of you will give you the same or more RBI opportunities than when having players with higher OBps ahead of you?

I would like to guess I know you know the answer but just don't want to admit it, but then I look back at all your silliness and have to wonder that you don't accept facts, data and reality.

Like I said you keep thinking  your disagreement is with me, but it’s really with Cora who is the one to continue to bat Raffy 2nd while IGNORING your General facts, and General data, and I guess you are also saying Cora is not educated enough to make a decision like you would on an educated guess.MSNS.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, dgalehouse said:

  Sure. It always has been for starting pitchers. It is only fairly recently that the popularity of analytics has caused people to discount wins.  

I have never been one to put much value in a SP'ers win total, and this was long before fangraphs. team wins are very important, but when I try to determine who is a really good pitcher, I have never thought assigned wins and losses are a major value.

Sure, I moved away from ERA to ERA-, ERA+, SIERA, FIP, xFIP and xFIP- more and more. I moved away from WHIP towards OPS Against, K%-BB% and other "newer" stats and metrics, but my views on W's and L's have not changed much, at all.

Wins matter a lot for a team, and I agree that some pitchers just seem to do what it takes to keep their team in more games than others, even if they have the same ERA as those "others." I don't totally discount W-L and win%, but to me wins and losses have so much to do with batting (run support) defense (fielding support) and other things like baserunning, managerial decisions and other things like park factors, strength of opponents and just plain luck (like catching a mediocre pitcher having a great night or a really bad night and timing.)

I don't disagree that more and more people have turned away from looking almost exclusively at Wins, losses and ERA with maybe a little at WHIP and towards modern metrics to help them determine who are the ":better" pitchers, but I think fans have always looked beyond just traditional stats to try and adjust their idea of who is better. Often it was based more on eye test and just knowing this pitcher had better run support or defense that that other guy. Now, there is data to help us see the differences in a more objective and fact-based light- knowing full well that no metric is perfect.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They could award Ws and Ls to hitters, too.  

Or they could have the 3 stars of the game like in hockey.

Or a game MVP like in football.

It all means the same - not much.

Well, they do award Wins to hitters now; they just award them in comparison to replacement level players…

[notin]

18 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

  Sure. It always has been for starting pitchers. It is only fairly recently that the popularity of analytics has caused people to discount wins.  

The rise in bullpen dependency was a bigger factor…

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Like I said you keep thinking  your disagreement is with me, but it’s really with Cora who is the one to continue to bat Raffy 2nd while IGNORING your General facts, and General data, and I guess you are also saying Cora is not educated enough to make a decision like you would on an educated guess.MSNS.

Again, a wrong assumption. I fully know Cora is choosing to bat Devers second. Thinking I don't know this further exposes your total lack of understanding other poster's positions and opinions. 

I have said numerous times that these sort of line-up changes and suggested changes are minor issues, and the philosophy of batting your best hitter 2nd had a lot of merit. I'm not pissed at Cora for batting Devers second. I am arguing with your position on thinking Devers could not have more RBIs by batting 4th not 2nd. That's all this is.

Also, our #2 slot is not a problem, at all. Not top 500, even. It's a plus, not a problem. The problem my opinion tries to address is the major issue with out 4 slot batter, all year. THIS YEAR, as you keep pointing to. What is the solution to that problem? We've tried many options, and all have failed. Now that Bregman is out, moving Devers to the 4 slot makes less sense, but maybe it coudl still be better than him batting 2nd. That's what this talk is about.

Yes, it's based on speculation, perhaps the biggest being who will bat 2nd and 3rd, and how much better will theor OBPs be compared to Rafaela, DHam and whoever is projected to bat 8th and 9th going forward. (Note: one of our best 8/9 batters, Narvaez, may never bat 8th or 9th, again, this year.)

I may disagree with Cora on this minor issue, but he's not telling the world that Devers could not possibly have more rbis b atting 4th, because he leads the league, now. That would be you.

Again, you refuse to answer the simple question, as always....

Do you really believe having Rafaela, DHam and our other worst batters up in front of Devers gives him as many or more RBI chances than batters like Abreu, Refsnyder and Bregman (before he went down injured?)

I don't expect a real answer,,, just further deflections and avoidances.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, they do award Wins to hitters now; they just award them in comparison to replacement level players…

They award wins to SP'ers and RP'ers this way, too. It's never going to be 18, 20 or 22 wins, either.

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Again, a wrong assumption. I fully know Cora is choosing to bat Devers second. Thinking I don't know this further exposes your total lack of understanding other poster's positions and opinions. 

I have said numerous times that these sort of line-up changes and suggested changes are minor issues, and the philosophy of batting your best hitter 2nd had a lot of merit. I'm not pissed at Cora for batting Devers second. I am arguing with your position on thinking Devers could not have more RBIs by batting 4th not 2nd. That's all this is.

Also, our #2 slot is not a problem, at all. Not top 500, even. It's a plus, not a problem. The problem my opinion tries to address is the major issue with out 4 slot batter, all year. THIS YEAR, as you keep pointing to. What is the solution to that problem? We've tried many options, and all have failed. Now that Bregman is out, moving Devers to the 4 slot makes less sense, but maybe it coudl still be better than him batting 2nd. That's what this talk is about.

Yes, it's based on speculation, perhaps the biggest being who will bat 2nd and 3rd, and how much better will theor OBPs be compared to Rafaela, DHam and whoever is projected to bat 8th and 9th going forward. (Note: one of our best 8/9 batters, Narvaez, may never bat 8th or 9th, again, this year.)

I may disagree with Cora on this minor issue, but he's not telling the world that Devers could not possibly have more rbis b atting 4th, because he leads the league, now. That would be you.

Again, you refuse to answer the simple question, as always....

Do you really believe having Rafaela, DHam and our other worst batters up in front of Devers gives him as many or more RBI chances than batters like Abreu, Refsnyder and Bregman (before he went down injured?)

I don't expect a real answer,,, just further deflections and avoidances.

You keep calling this a minor issue, but you have regurgitated on this for many post now. You don’t think if Cora thought Raffy had more chances batting 4th to get RBI that he wouldn’t move him there? Obviously you don’t, because to you Cora is not educated enough. You just don’t see it, because you are so hung up on general studies, and science that Cora is giving you the answer that Raffy is getting more chances at RBI batting 2nd, and that’s why he’s keeping him there, and that’s why I don’t have to answer one of your questions, because Cora has answered for me. That’s your REAL ANSWER like it, or not.MSNS 🤭🙈

[moonslav59]

We are 6 games away from the 40% mark on the season. We are 5 games past the 33% mark of the season (54 games.) Here are the fWAR and bWAR averages of our players still on the team:

(FWAR, bWAR)

2.7 Bregman (2.4, 3.0) on IL

2.2 Devers (2.1, 2.3) Da MAN!

1.9 Narvaez (1.8, 1.9) WOW!

1.9 Abreu (1.6, 2.1)

1.6 Rafaela (1.2, 1.9)

1.2 Duran (1.1, 1.3)

0.6 Refsnyder (0.5, 0.7)

0.3 Romy (0.2, 0.3)

0.2 Toro (0.2, o.1)

About a 0.0 KC (0.1, -0.3), Mayer (0.0, 0.1), DHam (-0.1, +o.2), Story (-0.2, +0.1)

-0.2 Sogard (-0.3, -0.2)

-0.7 Casas (-0.6, 0.9 is out for season)

Pitchers:

2.3 Crochet 2.2, 2.4

0.9 Chapman 0.7, 1.1

0.5 Dobbins 0.8, 0.2

0.5 Wilson 0.5, 0.5

0.4 Whitlock 0.4, 0.3

0.4 Buehler 0.3, 0.4

0.4 Bernardino 0.3, 0.4

0.4 Weissert 0.2, 0.6

0.3 Slaten 0.5, 0.0

0.3 Fitts 0.2, 0.4

0.2 Bello 0.0, 0.4

0.2 Giolito 0.2, 0.1

about a 0.0:  Wink , Guerrero, Burdi

-0.2 Criswell -0.1, -0.3 and Hendriks

-0.3 Kelly 

-1.0  Houck -0.4, -1.6

(FWAR had Newcomb at +0.5, but bWAR at -0.2)

 

[dgalehouse]

Boxing analogy.  A fighter is boxing beautifully. Good jab. Nice footwork. Great technique. He is leading on points. Then he gets knocked out. He loses the fight. He gets a lot of style points, but the loss goes on his record nevertheless. And the other guy gets the title shot, outdoors in the ballpark. 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You keep calling this a minor issue, but you have regurgitated on this for many post now. You don’t think if Cora thought Raffy had more chances batting 4th to get RBI that he wouldn’t move him there? Obviously you don’t, because to you Cora is not educated enough. You just don’t see it, because you are so hung up on general studies, and science that Cora is giving you the answer that Raffy is getting more chances at RBI batting 2nd, and that’s why he’s keeping him there, and that’s why I don’t have to answer one of your questions, because Cora has answered for me. That’s your REAL ANSWER like it, or not.MSNS 🤭🙈

Wrong, again. There are also advantages to having a .400+ OBP up 2nd vs 4th, and that is why I don't have an issue with Cora batting Devers 2nd not 4th.

My argument with you is over your continued insistence than Devers gets more RBI chances with Rafaela and DHam up before him over other better batters.

It's not an argument against Cora. I'm pretty sure he knows the rbi situation, but values a high OBP from the 2 slot more. I have no beef with that.

You still don't get it. Apparently, you never will.

You can't even understand what the debate is about, let alone what position others hold.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Boxing analogy.  A fighter is boxing beautifully. Good jab. Nice footwork. Great technique. He is leading on points. Then he gets knocked out. He loses the fight. He gets a lot of style points, but the loss goes on his record nevertheless. And the other guy gets the title shot, outdoors in the ballpark. 

But, the great pitchers don't let up that grand slam in the 9th (or 5th and 6th, these days.)

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Like you said it’s IMPOSSIBLE to know for sure, so all you are going on is assuming. That’s a fact. Abreu has a .267 in the 3 hole, and a .188 in the 4 hole, so you assume that will translate to being better. Why don’t you ask Cora why he’s not following your science, and batting Raffy 4th instead of 2nd, because that’s the one you must really have the problem with. He’s the one making the decisions. MSNS.

So are you arguing Cora shouldn’t move Devers down in the order because Abreu hits differently in those spots?  Why not use Devers’ numbers?  Other than that they show no such disparity and ruin your argument, I mean?

[dgalehouse]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

But, the great pitchers don't let up that grand slam in the 9th (or 5th and 6th, these days.)

No. Now they have closers to give up the grand slam in the ninth.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

No. Now they have closers to give up the grand slam in the ninth.

Yes, that's why I added (5th or 6th innings.)

[jad]

On 5/29/2025 at 9:57 PM, notin said:

Devers got demoted?

If he wasn’t putting up MVP caliber numbers at the plate - especially after a crazy slow start - no one would be siding with him.

I mean, imagine if Rafaela pouted about being replaced  in the OF by Roman Anthony.  Who’d take C-Note’s side?  Obviously none of the people recommending the move.  Would anyone?  Maybe his mom.  Maybe…

I would be.

[moonslav59]

How about this for the 2026 starting line-up?

1. L Duran DH

2. R Bregman 3B

3. L Abreu- R Refsnyder RF

4. L Devers 1B

5. L Anthony LF

6. R Narvaez C

7. L Mayer SS

8. R Campbell 2B

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: R Wong C, L DHam IF, R Romy IF, R Jh Garcia OF/1B or L Romero IF

(Trade Story & Yoshida)

Rotation: Crochet, F Valdez (32 y/o FA,) Sandoval, Houck, Fitts/Bello/Crawford/Dobbins