A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Was referring to 2020 WS G6.

I think the point is that the stats guys say bunting is bad and facing a batter for the third time (or more) is dumb. 

I like the bunt because it's different and can be effective.  I also like starters hanging around as long as they are effective.  The problem with relief pitchers is you can't always be sure they will be better than they guy they replace.  

[Larry Cook]

Burdi has looked decent at Worcester! Maybe we give him a shot. Whitlock is clearly struggling and we need a fresh arm!!  
 

[jdc69]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

I think the point is that the stats guys say bunting is bad and facing a batter for the third time (or more) is dumb. 

I like the bunt because it's different and can be effective.  I also like starters hanging around as long as they are effective.  The problem with relief pitchers is you can't always be sure they will be better than they guy they replace.  

Agreed and I was just reading an article from an analytics guy who said in actuality in terms of quality, pitchers pitches get better the more times they go through a lineup. Its just that batters get better at honing in. The first time through the lineup is when quality is at its lowest. So basically starting pitchers are getting replaced who are finally finding their groove with someone with no groove at all.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

I think the point is that the stats guys say bunting is bad and facing a batter for the third time (or more) is dumb. 

I like the bunt because it's different and can be effective.  I also like starters hanging around as long as they are effective.  The problem with relief pitchers is you can't always be sure they will be better than they guy they replace.  

I'm not in love with bunting, just in hate with strikeouts.

What do analytics say are the odds of advancing a baserunner on a swing and a miss?

[Larry Cook]

Can we please gives the kids a chance and put Duran and story out of our misery 

[moonslav59]

Don't look now, but Rafaela is nearing the .700 line. (The league OPS is .710.)

Ceddanne is at .679, after being at .577 on May 3rd.

.977 last 10 games. Maybe he feels Anthony's breath.

[Bellhorn04]

14 hours ago, jdc69 said:

Agreed and I was just reading an article from an analytics guy who said in actuality in terms of quality, pitchers pitches get better the more times they go through a lineup. Its just that batters get better at honing in. The first time through the lineup is when quality is at its lowest. So basically starting pitchers are getting replaced who are finally finding their groove with someone with no groove at all.

Can you link that article?  Because something there doesn't make sense at all.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

14 hours ago, jdc69 said:

Agreed and I was just reading an article from an analytics guy who said in actuality in terms of quality, pitchers pitches get better the more times they go through a lineup. Its just that batters get better at honing in. The first time through the lineup is when quality is at its lowest. So basically starting pitchers are getting replaced who are finally finding their groove with someone with no groove at all.

In most of the cases that I have read, the batting average against for a pitcher rises each time through the lineup.

[notin]

57 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

In most of the cases that I have read, the batting average against for a pitcher rises each time through the lineup.

Certainly most data from pitchers supports this.  Baseball-Reference has this as a split for every pitcher…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Don't look now, but Rafaela is nearing the .700 line. (The league OPS is .710.)

Ceddanne is at .679, after being at .577 on May 3rd.

.977 last 10 games. Maybe he feels Anthony's breath.

Rafaela like the weak replaceable link and his contract looks better every day lately.

Theres no need to rush to Anthony.  We’ve reached the point where we don’t even know he’s an upgrade…

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Certainly most data from pitchers supports this.  Baseball-Reference has this as a split for every pitcher…

But they don't have "in the groove" splits! 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Rafaela like the weak replaceable link and his contract looks better every day lately.

Theres no need to rush to Anthony.  We’ve reached the point where we don’t even know he’s an upgrade…

Well, if he replaced our 1Bman, by being the DH (or LF and Duran/Ref at DH)and having Devers play 1B, I think it likely would be an upgrade.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

 having Devers play 1B

I think the diva made it quite clear that he's not allowing this to happen.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I think the diva made it quite clear that he's not allowing this to happen.

We'll see. He also said he "was the 3Bman," and we saw how that turned out.

I do think Cora will try to not let it happen, this year.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I do think Cora will try to not let it happen, this year.

I agree that I don't think cora will allow it this season because then it will look like he caved to brez.

But right now it looks like he caved to the diva IMO.

He's in a no-win situation.

[notin]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

But they don't have "in the groove" splits! 

And it’s been a source of contention between myself and that site for some time now…

[notin]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, if he replaced our 1Bman, by being the DH (or LF and Duran/Ref at DH)and having Devers play 1B, I think it likely would be an upgrade.

Will he also protect late inning leads?  Because that’s why the Sox keep losing lately.

If your upstairs bedroom was on fire, would you run to the kitchen and blast the fire extinguisher everywhere, just because it was easier to get to?

I get the Christmas Morning anticipation to see Anthony.  But right now, that’s not where the fire is…

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I agree that I don't think cora will allow it this season because then it will look like he caved to brez.

But right now it looks like he caved to the diva IMO.

He's in a no-win situation.

Cora seemed to not even want Devers to DH, instead of throwing the ball away at 3B, so it looks like he's caving to Devers, but it might be something else.

There are times when things seem so obviously better for the team, but it takes an act of congress to get a change. The issue with Devers at 3B has been going on for years. I get the mistake on believing Yoshida could play LF complicated the DH move, and Casas looked like our 1B/DH of the future, so it was not an easy move to make, but still...

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Will he also protect late inning leads?  Because that’s why the Sox keep losing lately.

If your upstairs bedroom was on fire, would you run to the kitchen and blast the fire extinguisher everywhere, just because it was easier to get to?

I get the Christmas Morning anticipation to see Anthony.  But right now, that’s not where the fire is…

I don't get the analogy.

We have two prospects that are ML ready, and who were seemingly blocked.

We had a major injury and a slot open up. Some juggling is needed, but it's not rocket science or something like asking Devers to play CF or Anthony 1B.

Play the damn #1 prospect in MLB. He's been ML ready for weeks, if not months.

It may not work, but neither is Toro/Sogard at 1B, Story at SS and our LF/CF offense.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Cora seemed to not even want Devers to DH, instead of throwing the ball away at 3B, so it looks like he's caving to Devers, but it might be something else.

There are times when things seem so obviously better for the team, but it takes an act of congress to get a change. The issue with Devers at 3B has been going on for years. I get the mistake on believing Yoshida could play LF complicated the DH move, and Casas looked like our 1B/DH of the future, so it was not an easy move to make, but still...

To me it makes it look like cora is not running the asylum, the inmates are.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Will he also protect late inning leads?  Because that’s why the Sox keep losing lately.

If your upstairs bedroom was on fire, would you run to the kitchen and blast the fire extinguisher everywhere, just because it was easier to get to?

I get the Christmas Morning anticipation to see Anthony.  But right now, that’s not where the fire is…

You make it sound like the club only has a singular problem.

If you had a fire upstairs, would you ignore the smaller fire in the kitchen?

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

To me it makes it look like cora is not running the asylum, the inmates are.

I can see your point, and it scares the bejesus out of me to see I've been agreeing with you more and more. lately.

LOL!

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I can see your point, and it scares the bejesus out of me to see I've been agreeing with you more and more. lately.

LOL!

Ha!

[notin]

8 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

You make it sound like the club only has a singular problem.

If you had a fire upstairs, would you ignore the smaller fire in the kitchen?

See, you’re trying to create problems where the solution is easier, even in the analogy.

The Sox three biggest issues right now are bullpen, rotation thanks to the immense question mark Tanner Houck has become, and first base.   Neither Anthony nor   Mayer is a solution to these issues…

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Cora seemed to not even want Devers to DH, instead of throwing the ball away at 3B, so it looks like he's caving to Devers, but it might be something else.

There are times when things seem so obviously better for the team, but it takes an act of congress to get a change. The issue with Devers at 3B has been going on for years. I get the mistake on believing Yoshida could play LF complicated the DH move, and Casas looked like our 1B/DH of the future, so it was not an easy move to make, but still...

Cora is anti-rocking the boat. It looks like Cora is caving to Devers. Devers is a diva. Devers is insubordinate. You just keep rambling on, and on. If Cora thought Devers would be a good fit at 1B, which I don’t believe he does then you would have something to go on, but I don’t believe Cora sees Raffy as a good fit at 1B, and that’s why unless something has changed from the other day he hasn’t talked to Raffy about moving to 1B, and said he isn’t going to. If that is the case Cora isn’t caving to Devers, and Devers certainly isn’t insubordinate. I’ll say it again that Cora knows Raffy better than anyone, and what may seem obvious to anyone else might not be what’s right at all, and that’s what might be obvious to Cora.🤭🙈🤭.

 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

See, you’re trying to create problems where the solution is easier, even in the analogy.

The Sox three biggest issues right now are bullpen, rotation thanks to the immense question mark Tanner Houck has become, and first base.   Neither Anthony nor   Mayer is a solution to these issues…

I'm not "creating" anything.

I merely pointed out that the sox, like most clubs, have multiple issues that need to be addressed.

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

In most of the cases that I have read, the batting average against for a pitcher rises each time through the lineup.

2025 splits for starters:

1st PA .707 OPS

2nd .707 (not a typo, it's the same)

3rd .757

[notin]

14 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I'm not "creating" anything.

I merely pointed out that the sox, like most clubs, have multiple issues that need to be addressed.

So how do Anthony and Mayer fix this club?

They could create some fan enthusiasm, which is certainly good.  But do they put a product on the field more capable of winning?  Because right now, there are a lot posts saying “This bullpen is AWFUL!! So we need a new outfielder!!”

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

So how do Anthony and Mayer fix this club?

They could create some fan enthusiasm, which is certainly good.  But do they put a product on the field more capable of winning?

They could provide a spark, who knows?

Sometimes a shake-up is needed.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

So how do Anthony and Mayer fix this club?

They could create some fan enthusiasm, which is certainly good.  But do they put a product on the field more capable of winning?  Because right now, there are a lot posts saying “This bullpen is AWFUL!! So we need a new outfielder!!”

It's not like story and campbell are lighting it up lately.