A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

It's based on that is how they are performing. Pretty simple.

Why not answer the actual question. Isn't 40 games "how they are performing," too? 90 games? 120? 160?

Why 80? Is 80 based on some scientific study that show it is more meaningful?

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why not answer the actual question. Isn't 40 games "how they are performing," too? 90 games? 120? 160?

Why 80? Is 80 based on some scientific study that show it is more meaningful?

Never claimed there was anything scientific about it. As I have stated to you countless times, it represents roughly half a season.

If you want to hang your hat on what a player did 3yrs ago, have at it.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Never claimed there was anything scientific about it. As I have stated to you countless times, it represents roughly half a season.

If you want to hang your hat on what a player did 3yrs ago, have at it.

I don't know a single person who hangs their hat on any one given sample size length, including me.

You keep saying "I never claimed," but you use the same number over and over and never justify it, except to say it's roughly half a season. That's not a justification. It's just another way of saying 80 games.

I don't think 3 years ago matters much, either, but two might, especially if the recent sample szie might be tainted by injury or some out of character slump or red hot streak that means little in determining who the player is or will be.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't know a single person who hangs their hat on any one given sample size length, including me.

You keep saying "I never claimed," but you use the same number over and over and never justify it, except to say it's roughly half a season. That's not a justification. It's just another way of saying 80 games.

I don't think 3 years ago matters much, either, but two might, especially if the recent sample szie might be tainted by injury or some out of character slump or red hot streak that means little in determining who the player is or will be.

Again, you want to hang on to "tainted by injury".

My point is that this may be who they are post-injury.

And until that changes, it is who they are.

You are more than welcome to deny it or disagree with it all you like.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Again, you want to hang on to "tainted by injury".

My point is that this may be who they are post-injury.

And until that changes, it is who they are.

You are more than welcome to deny it or disagree with it all you like.

I'm not hanging my hat on "injury." I have said over and over, I don't know if Devers will bounce back or not.

Casas has less of a history to think he is better than this.

I do know Devers has been a streaking hitter and was on pace for his career best season, last year before getting hurt. I believe it is rare but not totally uncommon for a long standing good hitter to just fall of a cliff and stay there before age 30.

I'd bet he is better than his last 80 game sample size, but I'm not hanging my hat on it.

I have no idea on Casas. His longer sample sizes are not big and are scattered between times lost by injury. 80 games might be more significant than 160 or 40, but he did okay to end 2024.

[Maxbialystock]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't know a single person who hangs their hat on any one given sample size length, including me.

You keep saying "I never claimed," but you use the same number over and over and never justify it, except to say it's roughly half a season. That's not a justification. It's just another way of saying 80 games.

I don't think 3 years ago matters much, either, but two might, especially if the recent sample szie might be tainted by injury or some out of character slump or red hot streak that means little in determining who the player is or will be.

I have, as you know, gone with very small statistical samples, but my defense usually is that those are the only ones we have.

So splendidsplinter is definitely cherrypicking.  On the other hand, the professionals do it all the time.  When a guy's in a slump they focus strictly on the bad games, same for when a player's hot.  

So of course 80 games tells a story--I believe with the intention of exposing mediocrity. 

I disagree with that because I this year's team more positively than last year's.  Before tonight, the Sox were ranked 6th in runs scored, and I think they can go higher.  If Casas doesn't come around, bring up someone else to play 1b, the easiest position on the field, especially if he is already an infielder/catcher.  Same goes for Rafaela.  Anthony, Mayer, and even Grissom all look ready to move up.

Meanwhile, the current Sox have starters Crochet with an ERA of 2.05, Fitts with 3.18, Bello with 3.27, Dobbins with 2.45, plus, if you ignore Houck's 2.1 IP and 11 ER's in one horrible game, his ERA is also under 4.  Giolito's one start was a quality start, even with the 3 run dinger in the 6th.  

I even like the baserunning and the defense despite the errors. 

To me the only question about this squad is whether the bullpen can come around.  

 

[illinoisredsox]

Didn’t we have this same sample size discussion last week?  With the same participants and the same rhetoric?

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, illinoisredsox said:

Didn’t we have this same sample size discussion last week?  With the same participants and the same rhetoric?

Yup, except the SSS April Devers numbers are not so bad.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup, except the SSS April Devers numbers are not so bad.

Rollercoaster April for Devers. Due to lack of Spring Training? Other? 

If it's because of lack of Spring Training, who/what are we blaming it on? Training staff? Coaching? Devers? Simple timing of his injury? 

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

I have, as you know, gone with very small statistical samples, but my defense usually is that those are the only ones we have.

In the Devers case, the SSS are not "the only ones we have.

With Casas, his history is riddled with sporadic playing time, surrounding periods of being on the IL, but overall, he's done pretty well, when he plays, until this April. He's had other bad streaks, and the Dalbec worries have some merit. Dalbec had about an .800 OPS after his first 550 PAs, while casas does after 950. Both are kind of small sample sizes. Casas has about 50 points on Dalbec with OBP, but Dalbec was about 50 higher on SLG. Casas has 250 Ks in 950, while Dalbec had about 200 in 550.

The recency factor of a players last 40, 60 or the almighty 80 does matter, but when you see that Devers was on pace for his career best OPS in 2024 as late as September 1st, 2025, I think the "80 game" sample size has to be taken with a grain of salt.

He has a .689 OPS since 9/1/25 in 51 games (225 PAs) He hit .709 in August in 24 games and 110 PAs. He was at .791 from 8/1/25 to 8/25.  I just can't believe this two sample sizes, combined is what should be the most important numbers. If you want to get technical, Devers' poor sample size is just 54 games long: 8/26 to today at .657. (Not really the full 80.)

Casas is a whole other story.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Rollercoaster April for Devers. Due to lack of Spring Training? Other? 

If it's because of lack of Spring Training, who/what are we blaming it on? Training staff? Coaching? Devers? Simple timing of his injury? 

They hurt his feelings.

Ok, no more. The three words or initials for ___ ___ ___ have been typed so many times on this forum the past two months (because we all know Spring Training doesn't matter), that they're not small parts of any size posts anymore.

The fact is, if a guy like Houck sucks for a month, there's no getting around that he sucked for a month. That's a chunk of a season, especially at a time when every club wants to have a good start at building momentum.

Well, last night our All-Star starter had a good game. So Let's GO!!!

[moonslav59]

Certainly, there are not many good vibes about this team after 33 games. We are 20% through the season, and the A's have a better record. Six other teams do, too. We are just 2 games ahead of the 10th ranked team in the AL and the bottom 3rd tier.

Another season of mediocrity would really suck, but so far, there are no signs of expecting much better.

In the next 12 games, we play two teams ahead of us (#1 DET and #7 KCR) & two teams below us (#9 TEX and #12 MN.)

We need to put together a stretch where we show more promise and consistency.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

They hurt his feelings.

Ok, no more. The three words or initials for ___ ___ ___ have been typed so many times on this forum the past two months (because we all know Spring Training doesn't matter), that they're not small parts of any size posts anymore.

The fact is, if a guy like Houck sucks for a month, there's no getting around that he sucked for a month. That's a chunk of a season, especially at a time when every club wants to have a good start at building momentum.

Well, last night our All-Star starter had a good game. So Let's GO!!!

WTF? 15 K's in 23 PA's in first 5 G. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

WTF? 15 K's in 23 PA's in first 5 G. 

Maybe it's hard to fathom how crushing one single blow to a young man's ego can be to the guy who has always been the hero growing up, who blasts his way through the minors, becomes an instant star in the majors, and gets paid more money than anyone in the history of a franchise that is over a hundred years old.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Maybe it's hard to fathom how crushing one single blow to a young man's ego can be to the guy who has always been the hero growing up, who blasts his way through the minors, becomes an instant star in the majors, and gets paid more money than anyone in the history of a franchise that is over a hundred years old.

Trying to figure out which genre of speculative fiction this is... 🤔

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

41 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Maybe it's hard to fathom how crushing one single blow to a young man's ego can be to the guy who has always been the hero growing up, who blasts his way through the minors, becomes an instant star in the majors, and gets paid more money than anyone in the history of a franchise that is over a hundred years old.

Cry me a river

[Randy Red Sox]

57 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Certainly, there are not many good vibes about this team after 33 games. We are 20% through the season, and the A's have a better record. Six other teams do, too. We are just 2 games ahead of the 10th ranked team in the AL and the bottom 3rd tier.

Another season of mediocrity would really suck, but so far, there are no signs of expecting much better.

In the next 12 games, we play two teams ahead of us (#1 DET and #7 KCR) & two teams below us (#9 TEX and #12 MN.)

We need to put together a stretch where we show more promise and consistency.

i have no idea why this team is not doing better. I think the major reasons are 1} Casas has stunk  2} Devers has stunk 3} our middle relief has not been good and 4] our C has been a big issue and  5} Ceddano has struggled badly with the bat. I'd look at packaging Casas and Ceddano for a decent C. Then I would call up Anthony. In addition I would gauge the interest for Story which should be at his highest point in a long time. If this team is in fact going nowhere we may as well play the kids.

[moonslav59]

We are at the 20% mark of the season and these would be the project fWAR totals of our current players (5 x current fWAR)

8.0 Bregman (10.0 bWAR)

7.0 Abreu (8.0)

6.5 Crochet (6.0)

6.0 Campbell (5.5)

3.5 Newcomb (-1.0)

3.0 Duran (2.0)

2.5 Devers (3.5) & Rafaela (4.5)

2.0 Story (3.5) & Narvaez (4.0)

1.5 Buehler (0.5), Whitlock (2.0), Chapman (2.5), Dobbins (1.0) & Refsnyder 2.5 (plays 30% of games)

1.0 Weissert (1.0), Fitts 91.5), Wilson (0.0)& Romy 1.5  (1/3 games)

 

 

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i have no idea why this team is not doing better. I think the major reasons are 1} Casas has stunk  2} Devers has stunk 3} our middle relief has not been good and 4] our C has been a big issue and  5} Ceddano has struggled badly with the bat. I'd look at packaging Casas and Ceddano for a decent C. Then I would call up Anthony. In addition I would gauge the interest for Story which should be at his highest point in a long time. If this team is in fact going nowhere we may as well play the kids.

I don't think middle relief  in general has been the problem. 

Weissert: 3.65 ERA/2.75 xFIP

Wilson: 4.15 ERA/3.72 xFIP

Bernardino: 2.45 ERA/3.76 xFIP

I think the two relief issues so far have been (SSS):

Slaten: 5.56 ERA/5.18 xFIP, 43% LOB

Kelly: 9.00 ERA/3.62 xFIP, 41% LOB

 

 

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We are at the 20% mark of the season and these would be the project fWAR totals of our current players

3.5 Newcomb (-1.0)

🫠

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Trying to figure out which genre of speculative fiction this is... 🤔

Definitely not Bromance. True Grime? A IG?

Posters socially floating in faceless cyberspace may never meet someone in person who's always lived at the top of the tower and received nothing but praise -- until suddenly faced with a flaw or two...

... the adjustments can be monumental, even world-altering (in places like Red Sox Nation).

 

[moonslav59]

OPS Against:

1.280 Fulmer (13 PAs)

.967 Criswell (27)

.944 Hendriks (14)

.819 Stock (9)

.795 Kelly (45)

.705 Wilson (37)

.622 Wink (52)

.621 Whitlock (73)

.608 Weissert (53)

.562 Slaten (47)

.519 Bernardino (47)

.513 Chapman (45)

.154 Guerrero (13)

 

SPers:

.896 Bello

.834 Houck

.823 Newcomb 

.758 Giolito

.719 Buehler

.707 Dobbins

.614 Fitts

.500 Crochet

 

[moonslav59]

Maybe Criswell was just not meant for the pen, as witnessed in 2014, and tonight with WOO.

6 IP, 4H 1ER 1BB 8K

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1B options: Grissom doesn't make sense as a platoon partner with Romy, since they're both right-handed. Toro is a switch-hitter... 

Would Bloom like to get the Cardinals out of owing $50+ million to Willson Contreras? If he's not totally washed, could be a change-of-scenery guy who might like hitting in Fenway. The question is: how much could Breslow convince Chaim to subsidize WC to send him to Boston?

If Brez can expand a trade of say, Abreu to receive back a good bullpen arm, it also frees up a spot in the outfield for Anthony. 

The Sox more likely will go internal (Contreras' most similar batter at age 32 is Yasmani Grandal); a poster suggested moving uber athlete Campbell to 1B and calling up Mayer to play 2B, but that forces two guys out of their more natural positions.

 

[notin]

 

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

1B options: Grissom doesn't make sense as a platoon partner with Romy, since they're both right-handed. Toro is a switch-hitter... 

Would Bloom like to get the Cardinals out of owing $50+ million to Willson Contreras? If he's not totally washed, could be a change-of-scenery guy who might like hitting in Fenway. The question is: how much could Breslow convince Chaim to subsidize WC to send him to Boston?

If Brez can expand a trade of say, Abreu to receive back a good bullpen arm, it also frees up a spot in the outfield for Anthony. 

The Sox more likely will go internal (Contreras' most similar batter at age 32 is Yasmani Grandal); a poster suggested moving uber athlete Campbell to 1B and calling up Mayer to play 2B, but that forces two guys out of their more natural positions.

 

Grandal has played 1b.  He doesn’t hit like he used to and defense at catcher is still his best skill.

 

I like Campbell (1b), Story (2b), Mayer (SS).  But I can see why they don’t do it, too.

Devers to 1b makes sense too but won’t happen.

I also agree with Dave Cameron; there’s no such thing as a “natural position.”

[Randy Red Sox]

On 5/2/2025 at 7:25 AM, moonslav59 said:

We are at the 20% mark of the season and these would be the project fWAR totals of our current players (5 x current fWAR)

8.0 Bregman (10.0 bWAR)

7.0 Abreu (8.0)

6.5 Crochet (6.0)

6.0 Campbell (5.5)

3.5 Newcomb (-1.0)

3.0 Duran (2.0)

2.5 Devers (3.5) & Rafaela (4.5)

2.0 Story (3.5) & Narvaez (4.0)

1.5 Buehler (0.5), Whitlock (2.0), Chapman (2.5), Dobbins (1.0) & Refsnyder 2.5 (plays 30% of games)

1.0 Weissert (1.0), Fitts 91.5), Wilson (0.0)& Romy 1.5  (1/3 games)

 

 

Wow the Bregman signing has certainly worked out. I wasn't really in favour of it at the time but he's a better player than I thought. The record this season has been underwhelming but I like the direction we are heading. Overall our team is young and we have great prospects on the horizon and even some promising arms on the farm FINALLY.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

1B options: Grissom doesn't make sense as a platoon partner with Romy, since they're both right-handed. Toro is a switch-hitter... 

Would Bloom like to get the Cardinals out of owing $50+ million to Willson Contreras? If he's not totally washed, could be a change-of-scenery guy who might like hitting in Fenway. The question is: how much could Breslow convince Chaim to subsidize WC to send him to Boston?

If Brez can expand a trade of say, Abreu to receive back a good bullpen arm, it also frees up a spot in the outfield for Anthony. 

The Sox more likely will go internal (Contreras' most similar batter at age 32 is Yasmani Grandal); a poster suggested moving uber athlete Campbell to 1B and calling up Mayer to play 2B, but that forces two guys out of their more natural positions.

 

I think Anthony replaces Rafaela in the OF with the former becoming a utility player or a piece in a future trade. Great glove but no bat

[harmony]

In the past week Triston Casas' surplus value at Baseball Trade Values has dropped from $25.8 million to $9.4 million to $7.7 million:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=casas&page=1

[notin]

51 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I think Anthony replaces Rafaela in the OF with the former becoming a utility player or a piece in a future trade. Great glove but no bat

Trade for what?

Its still amazing to me how many fans think a player isn’t good enough to start, but is good enough to be a useful trade piece…

[Maxbialystock]

On 5/2/2025 at 8:52 AM, moonslav59 said:

In the Devers case, the SSS are not "the only ones we have.

With Casas, his history is riddled with sporadic playing time, surrounding periods of being on the IL, but overall, he's done pretty well, when he plays, until this April. He's had other bad streaks, and the Dalbec worries have some merit. Dalbec had about an .800 OPS after his first 550 PAs, while casas does after 950. Both are kind of small sample sizes. Casas has about 50 points on Dalbec with OBP, but Dalbec was about 50 higher on SLG. Casas has 250 Ks in 950, while Dalbec had about 200 in 550.

The recency factor of a players last 40, 60 or the almighty 80 does matter, but when you see that Devers was on pace for his career best OPS in 2024 as late as September 1st, 2025, I think the "80 game" sample size has to be taken with a grain of salt.

He has a .689 OPS since 9/1/25 in 51 games (225 PAs) He hit .709 in August in 24 games and 110 PAs. He was at .791 from 8/1/25 to 8/25.  I just can't believe this two sample sizes, combined is what should be the most important numbers. If you want to get technical, Devers' poor sample size is just 54 games long: 8/26 to today at .657. (Not really the full 80.)

Casas is a whole other story.

Your last sentence was prophetic.  Casas seems to have taken himself out with that episode hitting first base the wrong way.