A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Who sits? Duran or Abreu, if Anthony is in LF or RF and Campbell in CF?

There has to be a trade, since they will not bench one of these two, and they are both LHBs, so no platoon works with those two combined.

Both Duran and Abreu are too valuable to sit, and Breslow has definite needs, so it doesn't make sense not to swing a trade.

And they all have strikeout profiles: Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Campbell, even Anthony -- but he is above the others because he's noted for more power and more patience, the combo that elevates the almighty OPS. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Both Duran and Abreu are too valuable to sit, and Breslow has definite needs, so it doesn't make sense not to swing a trade.

And they all have strikeout profiles: Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Campbell, even Anthony -- but he is above the others because he's noted for more power and more patience, the combo that elevates the almighty OPS. 

You can add others to that strikeout profile. It's a roster construction issue created by the current and previous CBO.

[moonslav59]

Is my math so bad that I'm wrong in saying, if a prospect is called up, now, he still gets the extra year, since he cannot reach 172 days on the MLB roster?

I thought the season was 187 days, and we've already passed the 15 day mark.

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Both Duran and Abreu are too valuable to sit, and Breslow has definite needs, so it doesn't make sense not to swing a trade.

And they all have strikeout profiles: Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Campbell, even Anthony -- but he is above the others because he's noted for more power and more patience, the combo that elevates the almighty OPS. 

High OBP does not always transfer over to MLB.

Duran: .366>.325

Abreu: .372>.341 (.388 in AAA)

Anthony .401> ????

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Is my math so bad that I'm wrong in saying, if a prospect is called up, now, he still gets the extra year, since he cannot reach 172 days on the MLB roster?

I thought the season was 187 days, and we've already passed the 15 day mark.

I didn't even try the math; I just googled today through the end of the season, and it said, 156 days left.

If there are any loopholes, though, best to keep in mind that Theo Epstein lurks -- the GM who once wouldn't call Kris Bryant to the majors until there were exactly 171 days left, after Bryant was Minor League Player of the Year and then obliterated Spring Training.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I didn't even try the math; I just googled today through the end of the season, and it said, 156 days left.

If there are any loopholes, though, best to keep in mind that Theo Epstein lurks -- the GM who once wouldn't call Kris Bryant to the majors until there were exactly 171 days left, after Bryant was Minor League Player of the Year and then obliterated Spring Training.

I thought someone- not you- was saying we need to wait longer to call up Anthony or Mayer.

Another question: do we add another year, if we wait until the end of April 2026? (I think not.)

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Is my math so bad that I'm wrong in saying, if a prospect is called up, now, he still gets the extra year, since he cannot reach 172 days on the MLB roster?

I thought the season was 187 days, and we've already passed the 15 day mark.

If that prospect comes in 1st or 2nd in ROY, the team does NOT get the extra year as the player earns the current year as a full service year. 

[notin]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

I think Yoshida coming up is the least likely scenario to be honest. I wouldn't be shocked if we've seen Yoshida take his last swing in the majors for the Red Sox.

I think we'll make do with what we have (barring injury) until we can call up Mayer to replace Hamilton if he's still struggling and Mayer has kicked on at AAA. Can't see that happening until after another year of control kicks in.  Grissom could be brought up earlier instead, but his defence just isn't good enough to cover the positions that Hamilton does, so I don't see it. My feeling is Grissom builds value in AAA and is moved. If Mayer is blocked (and he currently is bar an unpalatable utility role), this kid got no chance. 

Anthony could be called up much earlier, but the longer it takes, the more it make sense to hold onto his further year of control, also. 

I think Grissom could cover Hamilton’s defense.  Outside of 2b, Hamilton is a clear weakness with the globe.   But what Grissom can’t cover is Hamilton’s pinch running skills, which are valuable in this Ghost Runner Era.

Don’t underestimate Yoshida, whose biggest flaw is that he’s overpaid.  He lead the Sox in every non-cumulative batting category vs RHP last year.  He’s been a defensive liability, but not a player worth discarding immediately just because a couple players are posting good numbers down at that Worcester Launching Pad.  There’s plenty of time at PA to get everyone in…

[Nick]

50 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Is my math so bad that I'm wrong in saying, if a prospect is called up, now, he still gets the extra year, since he cannot reach 172 days on the MLB roster?

I thought the season was 187 days, and we've already passed the 15 day mark.

You are CORRECT MOON. ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING HE'LL HAVE ARBITRATION IN  2027, 2028, 2029 AND 2030.

HE'LL FOLLOW THE PATH DURAN IS ON. DURAN ACCUMULATED 155 DAYS, NOT ENOUGH TO GAIN 1 YEAR OF SERVICE TIME.

DON'T YOU TRUST ME?

If he has a great year and wins an award to lose one year of eligibility, it's great for the Red Sox season. Probably means we're in the playoffs.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

I think Grissom could cover Hamilton’s defense.  Outside of 2b, Hamilton is a clear weakness with the globe.   But what Grissom can’t cover is Hamilton’s pinch running skills, which are valuable in this Ghost Runner Era…

Cora doesn't utilize a pinch runner in those situations though. 😩

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Nick said:

You are CORRECT MOON. ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING HE'LL HAVE ARBITRATION IN  2027, 2028, 2029 AND 2030.

HE'LL FOLLOW THE PATH DURAN IS ON. DURAN ACCUMULATED 155 DAYS, NOT ENOUGH TO GAIN 1 YEAR OF SERVICE TIME.

DON'T YOU TRUST ME?

In your calculation, you show a player without a 7th year of control. You are basically not agreeing with moon? 

[Nick]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

In your calculation, you show a player without a 7th year of control. You are basically not agreeing with moon? 

my arbitration years are off.....it starts in 28, 29, 30, 31.

I made the same mistake elsewhere earlier. 

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, Nick said:

my arbitration years are off.....it starts in 28, 29, 30, 31.

I made the same mistake elsewhere earlier. 

The only issue is the end of the year award voting and its impact on '31. However, if he comes up and is on pace for a ROY, shouldn't the Sox do whatever they can (i.e. overpay) to extend him at that point knowing he's handling MLB fairly well? 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Don’t underestimate Yoshida, whose biggest flaw is that he’s overpaid.  He lead the Sox in every non-cumulative batting category vs RHP last year.  He’s been a defensive liability, but not a player worth discarding immediately just because a couple players are posting good numbers down at that Worcester Launching Pad.  There’s plenty of time at PA to get everyone in…

Yoshida has other flaws too.  He's a very slow baserunner.  He couldn't hit lefties last year.  And you might even argue that he's "injury-prone" or breaking down at this point.

He does have strengths but they get drowned by his weaknesses.

He'd be nice to have in a DH platoon, but that's kind of a tough fit.

Obviously if Devers has to go on the IL, that's Yoshida's opening and we'd be semi-happy to have him. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Very few players are still with their original team six years after making the majors. On the current Red Sox, it's (insert eeegads) Rafael Devers.

So, correct me if I'm wrong: all these service time worries by clubs are about having to pay arbitration prices a year earlier? First year arbitration figures aren't even usually that exorbitant -- unless the guy's a total star... which any smart team should be looking to lock up to an extension anyway.  

If the player is worth it, orgs would gladly pay them earlier to avoid possibly losing them to free agency. It may be good business to manipulate the time clock, but it can also expedite an early exit from subsequent bitterness.

Or, as fans this century have seen more than not, the Red Sox tend to overrate or at least overhype their own prospects.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yoshida has other flaws too.  He's a very slow baserunner.  He couldn't hit lefties last year.  And you might even argue that he's "injury-prone" or breaking down at this point.

He does have strengths but they get drowned by his weaknesses.

He'd be nice to have in a DH platoon, but that's kind of a tough fit.

Obviously if Devers has to go on the IL, that's Yoshida's opening and we'd be semi-happy to have him. 

97th percentile k rate. He's the most underrated bat in our org. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Very few players are still with their original team six years after making the majors. On the current Red Sox, it's (insert eeegads) Rafael Devers.

So, correct me if I'm wrong: all these service time worries by clubs are about having to pay arbitration prices a year earlier? First year arbitration figures aren't even usually that exorbitant -- unless the guy's a total star... which any smart team should be looking to lock up to an extension anyway.  

If the player is worth it, orgs would gladly pay them earlier to avoid possibly losing them to free agency. It may be good business to manipulate the time clock, but it can also expedite an early exit from subsequent bitterness.

Or, as fans this century have seen more than not, the Red Sox tend to overrate or at least overhype their own prospects.

The service time manipulation is about years of control, not arbitration. Those are two different things. Some teams try to get a player to appear later in the year so that they can get more than 6 years of control on a player.  

[Nick]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The only issue is the end of the year award voting and its impact on '31. However, if he comes up and is on pace for a ROY, shouldn't the Sox do whatever they can (i.e. overpay) to extend him at that point knowing he's handling MLB fairly well? 

I believe both Mayer and Anthony should be extended. Thus team control issue may not exist. The goal is to go Campbell route. Not get bogged down in 'getting a deal' by going cheap on our young talent.

I would think the extension approach has passed Casas. He bet on himself and he gave himself a crappy hand to work with.

[harmony]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

97th percentile k rate. He's the most underrated bat in our org. 

Seattle might find that batting profile, particularly the K rate, attractive but the contract is an obstacle for the frugal Mariners, especially with Yoshida's injury.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yoshida has other flaws too.  He's a very slow baserunner.  He couldn't hit lefties last year.  And you might even argue that he's "injury-prone" or breaking down at this point.

He does have strengths but they get drowned by his weaknesses.

He'd be nice to have in a DH platoon, but that's kind of a tough fit.

Obviously if Devers has to go on the IL, that's Yoshida's opening and we'd be semi-happy to have him. 

Durn right he has strength -- enough to pump those inflated plastic dumb bells that power his grounders all the way to second base.

I actually thought his repaired shoulder would let Masa rip away this season, but if he was really letting it fly in rehab you'd think the Sox would be showcasing him somewhere (instead of hiding him like a family member with issues they don't want at the holiday table for fear of disrupting an unfiltered grandparent). 

"Semi-happy"... that's us. The bottom half of a circle forms a smile that is always frowned down upon.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Nick said:

I believe both Mayer and Anthony should be extended. Thus team control issue may not exist. The goal is to go Campbell route. Not get bogged down in 'getting a deal' by going cheap on our young talent.

I would think the extension approach has passed Casas. He bet on himself and he gave himself a crappy hand to work with.

Who wants to extend a 1b anyway? Alonso was a FA and didn't get a massive contract. Not many 1b's that are worth large contracts anymore. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, harmony said:

Seattle might find that batting profile, particularly the K rate, attractive but the contract is an obstacle for the frugal Mariners, especially with Yoshida's injury.

I think the Sox would eat a lot of the salary in any deal at this point. I think he'll hit again whenever/wherever he plays. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Durn right he has strength -- enough to pump those inflated plastic dumb bells that power his grounders all the way to second base.

I actually thought his repaired shoulder would let Masa rip away this season, but if he was really letting it fly in rehab you'd think the Sox would be showcasing him somewhere (instead of hiding him like a family member with issues they don't want at the holiday table for fear of disrupting an unfiltered grandparent). 

"Semi-happy"... that's us. The bottom half of a circle forms a smile that is always frowned down upon.

They can't put him in a AAA game, because it starts a clock for how soon he'd have to be put back on the MLB roster. 

[mvp 78]

They could just option him to AAA though as he has 3 options..................

[Bellhorn04]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

97th percentile k rate. He's the most underrated bat in our org. 

If only we could use 2 DH's!

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If only we could use 2 DH's!

Are we sure Masa isn't a better receiver than Sabol? 

[mvp 78]

OPS since the start of the TOR series (4/7):

Bregman 942

Story 830

Duran 790

Refsnyder 789

Rafaela 713

Campbell 642

Casas 611

Romy 602

Devers 551

Wilyer 534

Narvaez 455

Hamilton 354

Sabol 373

They are arguably punting on 4 bats every night right now. As a team, they are 17th in runs and 24th in wRC+ since 4/7. 

 

[Hitch]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He doesn't lose a year, he gets a full season if he comes in first of second regardless of when he comes up (i.e. if the Sox hold him down until June, but he balls out he still earns a full year of service time). Since he wasn't on the roster early enough, the Sox are not eligible for the pick for Roman only Kristian. 🫣

I was ineloquently trying to say that holding him down now doesn't necessarily get you the 7 years that a lot of people are saying it does. The Sox lose that 7th year of control if he comes in 1st or 2nd.

I read earlier (but can now not find while on my phone), that you lose eligibility for rookie of the year if you're called up after a certain date (end of May). Red Sox Stats hinted at it on twitter, also. Unless there's assumptions that the catch up to win would be too great.

Anthony and Mayer will still be rookie eligible next year under the wild development that they aren't called up until 45 days from the end. Not even the Sox are that insane.

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The service time manipulation is about years of control, not arbitration. Those are two different things. Some teams try to get a player to appear later in the year so that they can get more than 6 years of control on a player.  

Yup exactly this. Nothing to do with arbs - All about that extra year of control. A tactic teams have been using for years.

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Very few players are still with their original team six years after making the majors. On the current Red Sox, it's (insert eeegads) Rafael Devers.

So, correct me if I'm wrong: all these service time worries by clubs are about having to pay arbitration prices a year earlier? First year arbitration figures aren't even usually that exorbitant -- unless the guy's a total star... which any smart team should be looking to lock up to an extension anyway.  

If the player is worth it, orgs would gladly pay them earlier to avoid possibly losing them to free agency. It may be good business to manipulate the time clock, but it can also expedite an early exit from subsequent bitterness.

Or, as fans this century have seen more than not, the Red Sox tend to overrate or at least overhype their own prospects.

I think those higher arbitration costs are why many players don’t last 6 years…