A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[mvp 78]

57 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You know I do not count 14 game sample sizes as predictive.

I think he was "ready" last year, when he was called up to AAA, but he got hurt, but that's just me.

Right now, I'd rather have him at SS than Rafaela or some sort of timeshare between DHam & Romy.

You wouldn't?

I think the competition at AA isn't the same as it was a few years ago. Ever since they got rid of short season, the MiLB levels have been a little wonky. It's not as easy to promote a top prospect from AA (see Jackson Holiday). The learning curve is a little different now and AAA may be a required step IMO. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think the competition at AA isn't the same as it was a few years ago. Ever since they got rid of short season, the MiLB levels have been a little wonky. It's not as easy to promote a top prospect from AA (see Jackson Holiday). The learning curve is a little different now and AAA may be a required step IMO. 

Good point, but we have seen some young top prospects make quick jumps to the bigs and not do too badly, once there.

I don't think Jackson Merrill played any AAA games and not that many in AA.

A couple others played maybe 30-60 games in AAA and 50-80 in AA.

I'm not saying mayer will step in and be an AS game one, but being ML Ready does not mean that.

Would you start Rafaela at SS over mayer, if Story went down for 60 days?

[moonslav59]

Now that Casas has 2 dingers in 3 days, is the talk of Grissom at 1B no longer a thing?

Is Rafaela's getting on base in 4 of his last 8 PAs enough to lengthen the leash and prolong the inevitable Anthony call-up?

These small sample sizes can sometimes influence decisions being made.

I still think Anthony is worth the shot as a way to possibly give our offense the spark or boost it seems to need. I really like Rafaela, and hope we can find ways to maximize his playing time, if we do call-up Roman. I've also been a big cheerleader on Refsnyder starting vs all LH'd SP'ers, so something would have to give.

For an offense that seems to be struggling, so much, why is it so hard to identify where an upgrade is needed? (Rhetorical question.)

Narvaez is too good on D to replace, and we have nothing, anyway.

Casas will get a longer look.

Devers is Devers.

Duran is heating up.

Rafaela is so great on D.

Story, Campbell, Abreu and Bregman are not the issues on O, so far.

 

[Nick]

I get it that it's a small sample size, but Hamilton needs to play every day in AAA to get his bat going. I believe he has an option left.

Look he is not Devers, nor Casas that we toss long leash to. 

We need another spark in the lineup. Bring up Mayer. He's hot right now. 

Hell exchange Roman Anthony for Rafaela. 

Guerrero gave us a lift today. His stuff works in the majors. Small things add up. 

Hamilton is not getting the job done.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Nick said:

I get it that it's a small sample size, but Hamilton needs to play every day in AAA to get his bat going. I believe he has an option left.

Look he is not Devers, nor Casas that we toss long leash to. 

We need another spark in the lineup. Bring up Mayer. He's hot right now. 

Hell exchange Roman Anthony for Rafaela. 

Guerrero gave us a lift today. His stuff works in the majors. Small things add up. 

Hamilton is not getting the job done.

DHam did really bad in his first stint on the big club in '24, too. Maybe, he's just a slow starter, but I agree.

Bring up Grissom, despite his worse D and baserunning. We still have Romy on the 26, and Rafaela can play middle IF.

[Bellhorn04]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

3 of the last 13 WS winners were the worst or tied for worst team in the playoffs.

1 of the last 13 WS winners was the 3 seed in the league.

9 out of 13 WS winners were the 1 or 2 seed in their league.

That looks far from a true crapshoot, to me.

I would agree that it's not a total crapshoot.    

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I would agree that it's not a total crapshoot.    

I'd say 9-3 of 1-2 slots winning vs 4-5 slots winning is a little more on the side of the anti-crapshoot position than the pro-crapshoot position, but it's not 100% clear.

Certainly, there is an element of "crapshoot" involved, but the best teams have a much better chance than a dice roll. Better than twice a dice roll chance.

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

DHam did really bad in his first stint on the big club in '24, too. Maybe, he's just a slow starter, but I agree.

Bring up Grissom, despite his worse D and baserunning. We still have Romy on the 26, and Rafaela can play middle IF.

They might hold out until Yoshida returns, since he would likely get a 25 man roster spot.  Yoshida to left, Duran to CF.  Rafaela as a defensive replacement.  Hamilton to Worcester…

[oldtimer]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Now that Casas has 2 dingers in 3 days, is the talk of Grissom at 1B no longer a thing?

Is Rafaela's getting on base in 4 of his last 8 PAs enough to lengthen the leash and prolong the inevitable Anthony call-up?

These small sample sizes can sometimes influence decisions being made.

I still think Anthony is worth the shot as a way to possibly give our offense the spark or boost it seems to need. I really like Rafaela, and hope we can find ways to maximize his playing time, if we do call-up Roman. I've also been a big cheerleader on Refsnyder starting vs all LH'd SP'ers, so something would have to give.

For an offense that seems to be struggling, so much, why is it so hard to identify where an upgrade is needed? (Rhetorical question.)

Narvaez is too good on D to replace, and we have nothing, anyway.

Casas will get a longer look.

Devers is Devers.

Duran is heating up.

Rafaela is so great on D.

Story, Campbell, Abreu and Bregman are not the issues on O, so far.

 

You said it. The Red Sox seem to need an offensive spark and Anthony looks like he is our best bet for one. Let's give him a try. 

[notin]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

3 of the last 13 WS winners were the worst or tied for worst team in the playoffs.

1 of the last 13 WS winners was the 3 seed in the league.

9 out of 13 WS winners were the 1 or 2 seed in their league.

That looks far from a true crapshoot, to me.

So… the top FOUR teams win three times as often as the bottom ONE team?  Isn’t that a bit skewed? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

They might hold out until Yoshida returns, since he would likely get a 25 man roster spot.  Yoshida to left, Duran to CF.  Rafaela as a defensive replacement.  Hamilton to Worcester…

Why would we carry only 25 players on a 26 man roster? LOL.

I won't be surprised if we call up Yoshida before Anthony, and maybe he hits well, but I like Anthony's chances to provide a spark more.

[Nick]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

DHam did really bad in his first stint on the big club in '24, too. Maybe, he's just a slow starter, but I agree.

Bring up Grissom, despite his worse D and baserunning. We still have Romy on the 26, and Rafaela can play middle IF.

It's not totally on DHam. Precisely because Duran, Casas and Devers are all struggling to a degree that you end up evaluating DHam. If the aforementioned three amigos were playing up to their norm, we wouldn't be talking about DHam.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

It's not totally on DHam. Precisely because Duran, Casas and Devers are all struggling to a degree that you end up evaluating DHam. If the aforementioned three amigos were playing up to their norm, we wouldn't be talking about DHam.

Blaming the utility infielder does seem a bit dicey.  But I think the primary goal is to open a spot for Anthony…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Why would we carry only 25 players on a 26 man roster? LOL.

I won't be surprised if we call up Yoshida before Anthony, and maybe he hits well, but I like Anthony's chances to provide a spark more.

I thought demoting Hamilton to activate Yoshida would keep the roster the same size.  Are you saying Yoshida isn’t a full man?  Is that a short joke? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

It's not totally on DHam. Precisely because Duran, Casas and Devers are all struggling to a degree that you end up evaluating DHam. If the aforementioned three amigos were playing up to their norm, we wouldn't be talking about DHam.

People always talk about the weakest link.

He might just be  a slow starter. I'd still demote him and promote Grissom.

[Hitch]

I think Yoshida coming up is the least likely scenario to be honest. I wouldn't be shocked if we've seen Yoshida take his last swing in the majors for the Red Sox.

I think we'll make do with what we have (barring injury) until we can call up Mayer to replace Hamilton if he's still struggling and Mayer has kicked on at AAA. Can't see that happening until after another year of control kicks in.  Grissom could be brought up earlier instead, but his defence just isn't good enough to cover the positions that Hamilton does, so I don't see it. My feeling is Grissom builds value in AAA and is moved. If Mayer is blocked (and he currently is bar an unpalatable utility role), this kid got no chance. 

Anthony could be called up much earlier, but the longer it takes, the more it make sense to hold onto his further year of control, also. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

I think Yoshida coming up is the least likely scenario to be honest. I wouldn't be shocked if we've seen Yoshida take his last swing in the majors for the Red Sox.

I think we'll make do with what we have (barring injury) until we can call up Mayer to replace Hamilton if he's still struggling and Mayer has kicked on at AAA. Can't see that happening until after another year of control kicks in.  Grissom could be brought up earlier instead, but his defence just isn't good enough to cover the positions that Hamilton does, so I don't see it. My feeling is Grissom builds value in AAA and is moved. If Mayer is blocked (and he currently is bar an unpalatable utility role), this kid got no chance. 

Anthony could be called up much earlier, but the longer it takes, the more it make sense to hold onto his further year of control, also. 

From https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/service-time: "A player is deemed to have reached "one year" of Major League service upon accruing 172 days in a given year."

According to google math, from today's date until September 28 -- the Red Sox last scheduled game of the regular season, there are 156 days left in the 2025 campaign (the postseason does not count towards service time).

Yesterday, Sox President Sam Kennedy said on WEEI, “Well, we just keep walking by Bres’ office saying, ‘Come on, man. What are we waiting for? Let’s go!’”

 

[Bellhorn04]

12 hours ago, notin said:

So… the top FOUR teams win three times as often as the bottom ONE team?  Isn’t that a bit skewed? 

I don't understand the question.  Can you spell it out a bit?  

[Hitch]

14 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

From https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/service-time: "A player is deemed to have reached "one year" of Major League service upon accruing 172 days in a given year."

According to google math, from today's date until September 28 -- the Red Sox last scheduled game of the regular season, there are 156 days left in the 2025 campaign (the postseason does not count towards service time).

Yesterday, Sox President Sam Kennedy said on WEEI, “Well, we just keep walking by Bres’ office saying, ‘Come on, man. What are we waiting for? Let’s go!’”

 

Either player loses a year of control if either Anthony (definitely could happen) or Mayer (less so) wins Rookie of the Year. I believe that they fall out of consideration for these awards at the end of May. 

In regards to "What are we waiting for?" I'd say Mayer to hit more regularly, and Anthony to show he's over his shoulder issue and doesn't need to DH. So I can see the end of May making sense (from a Breslow point of view).

[Bellhorn04]

Re Mayer & Anthony - their normal positions are SS and RF, and Story and Abreu have been 2 of our best players.  Mayer can't take 3B from Bregman or 2B from Campbell. 

It's a conundrum.  Someone has to get hurt or really start to play bad to create an opening.  Either that or some sort of musical chairs arrangement, and those can be troublesome in their own way... 

[Hitch]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Re Mayer & Anthony - their normal positions are SS and RF, and Story and Abreu have been 2 of our best players.  Mayer can't take 3B from Bregman or 2B from Campbell. 

It's a conundrum.  Someone has to get hurt or really start to play bad to create an opening.  Either that or some sort of musical chairs arrangement, and those can be troublesome in their own way... 

Yeah Mayer is most in limbo for the reasons you mentioned. That said, if there's no danger of losing that year of control, Mayer will soon make himself a much better option than Hamilton you'd imagine. Then he can get fairly regular at bats giving a day off each to Story, Campbell and Bregman. Whether that's better for his development than playing every day in AAA is up for debate.

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

From https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/service-time: "A player is deemed to have reached "one year" of Major League service upon accruing 172 days in a given year."

According to google math, from today's date until September 28 -- the Red Sox last scheduled game of the regular season, there are 156 days left in the 2025 campaign (the postseason does not count towards service time).

Yesterday, Sox President Sam Kennedy said on WEEI, “Well, we just keep walking by Bres’ office saying, ‘Come on, man. What are we waiting for? Let’s go!’”

 

1. I believe the baseball calendar is more quirky than how you think and that the actual day isn't until May. It's not just look at the Sox calendar and use your fingers. 

2. If Roman is top 2 in ROY voting, he loses the extra year of service regardless of the day he's called up. This is why he should have been on the Opening Day roster to begin with. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Re Mayer & Anthony - their normal positions are SS and RF, and Story and Abreu have been 2 of our best players.  Mayer can't take 3B from Bregman or 2B from Campbell. 

It's a conundrum.  Someone has to get hurt or really start to play bad to create an opening.  Either that or some sort of musical chairs arrangement, and those can be troublesome in their own way... 

It's possible they're playing Campbell in CF to keep his bat in the line-up when they promote Mayer to play 2B. Anthony will be in LF -- Worcester's manager came right out and said that's what they're preparing him for.

Anthony and Mayer have to play every day -- that factor could keep them in the minors until spots open up in Boston. Breslow doesn't have to trade one his current outfielders, but that surplus could help net reinforcements for the pitching staff, which is insufficient and inefficient beyond Crochet, Buehler and hopefully Bello. 

Losing Crawford and Fitts hurts, and they know they can't rely on veteran comebacks from Giolito, Hendriks or Sandoval. A true contender can't just keep sending down used-up pitchers and calling up fresh arms every other day for six months...

[mvp 78]

From the CBA on service time and ROY voting:

 

[moonslav59]

13 hours ago, notin said:

So… the top FOUR teams win three times as often as the bottom ONE team?  Isn’t that a bit skewed? 

No, top 2 teams in each league (4 teams) win 3:1 over bottom 2 teams in each league (4 teams). (It was the 4-5 teams then became the 5-6 teams when they moved from 5 to 6 team making it to the dance.)

It's apples to apples.

It's the #3 team that is under-represented, and more recently the 3 & 4 teams.

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Re Mayer & Anthony - their normal positions are SS and RF, and Story and Abreu have been 2 of our best players.  Mayer can't take 3B from Bregman or 2B from Campbell. 

It's a conundrum.  Someone has to get hurt or really start to play bad to create an opening.  Either that or some sort of musical chairs arrangement, and those can be troublesome in their own way... 

The easier move is Anthony to LF, Duran to CF and keep Abreu in RF (w Rafaela or Refsnyder as the platoon.)

To bring up Mayer, we'd almost have to move Campbell to CF and keep Duran in LF and Abreu/ Ref-Raf in RF- with no Anthony.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

42 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

1. I believe the baseball calendar is more quirky than how you think and that the actual day isn't until May. It's not just look at the Sox calendar and use your fingers. 

2. If Roman is top 2 in ROY voting, he loses the extra year of service regardless of the day he's called up. This is why he should have been on the Opening Day roster to begin with. 

Rookie of the Year loses a year and his team wins a draft pick... and the Players' Union agreed to this?

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Anthony and Mayer have to play every day -- that factor could keep them in the minors until spots open up in Boston.

Who sits? Duran or Abreu, if Anthony is in LF or RF and Campbell in CF?

There has to be a trade, since they will not bench one of these two, and they are both LHBs, so no platoon works with those two combined.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Rookie of the Year loses a year and his team wins a draft pick... and the Players' Union agreed to this?

He doesn't lose a year, he gets a full season if he comes in first of second regardless of when he comes up (i.e. if the Sox hold him down until June, but he balls out he still earns a full year of service time). Since he wasn't on the roster early enough, the Sox are not eligible for the pick for Roman only Kristian. 🫣

I was ineloquently trying to say that holding him down now doesn't necessarily get you the 7 years that a lot of people are saying it does. The Sox lose that 7th year of control if he comes in 1st or 2nd.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

He doesn't lose a year, he gets a full season if he comes in first of second regardless of when he comes up (i.e. if the Sox hold him down until June, but he balls out he still earns a full year of service time). Since he wasn't on the roster early enough, the Sox are not eligible for the pick for Roman only Kristian. 🫣

Ok. I read a team couldn't have more than one PPI player, in case one guy's Rookie of the Year, and another finishes 3rd in MVP -- so the Sox would only get one draft pick if say Campbell was ROY and Anthony finishes 3rd in MVP voting...

...like 1975 AL ROY/MVP Fred Lynn and 3rd in MVP Jim Rice.