A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Ironically, Campbell bought into organizational advice on how to improve, and worked on the changes so diligently that he made the majors in one year.

Maybe it just takes old dogs longer to learn new tricks. It worked in 2018 when JD Martinez helped younger guys improve, and in '21 when Schwarber did the same. Hopefully, Bregman can make a similar impact and impart different perspectives.

Meanwhile, an offense that strikes out as much as the Red Sox has major issues, and is doomed to lose many frustrating games.

K%

'25 5th highest

'24 3rd

'23 19th

'22 17th

Is it organizational philosophy or team makeup? It wasn't that long ago when they were ok at not k'ing all game long. It's been brutal since the start of last season. 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Before Sunday’s game, Cora mentioned he and the hitting coaches spoke with Devers about tightening his stance to create a better base.

“If you’re not grounded, you’re not going to be on time,” Cora said.

 

Interesting comments from Cora last night. I saw no evidence of a tightening of the stance. It's wider than I've ever seen

 

 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Devers bat speed is definitely less than early last year. Is that because he needs surgery to fix his shoulders???? Maybe an mri is needed to show the extent (if any) if the damage????

His bat speed is down. Now it's 30th percentile, down from 60th percentile last season.

[mvp 78]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

His bat speed is down. Now it's 30th percentile, down from 60th percentile last season.

For people that need to visualize it, the dark green is this season's bat swing. 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

K%

'25 5th highest

'24 3rd

'23 19th

'22 17th

Is it organizational philosophy or team makeup? It wasn't that long ago when they were ok at not k'ing all game long. It's been brutal since the start of last season. 

The '23 to '24 heart of the order replaced Justin Turner with Tyler O'Neill -- whose K-rate was basically twice as bad: 33.6% to 17.6%. Verdugo wasn't a whiffer -- 15.4% in '23 -- and he was traded before last year, too. 

Five guys fanned at least 110 times in '23, while six did in '24, but that included four outfielders as opposed to just Adam Duvall. Casas missed 100 games, but he and his subs still struck out more than he alone did in '23.

It goes on. This new offense, even if they add the energy of Anthony and Mayer, will still be hacking and flailing. Maybe they can market a a new line of Golden Sombreros in different colors and sell them instead of batting helmets.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

For people that need to visualize it, the dark green is this season's bat swing. 

 

If his mechanics are out of sync couldn’t that have something to do with bat speed also?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The '23 to '24 heart of the order replaced Justin Turner with Tyler O'Neill -- whose K-rate was basically twice as bad: 33.6% to 17.6%. Verdugo wasn't a whiffer -- 15.4% in '23 -- and he was traded before last year, too. 

Five guys fanned at least 110 times in '23, while six did in '24, but that included four outfielders as opposed to just Adam Duvall. Casas missed 100 games, but he and his subs still struck out more than he alone did in '23.

It goes on. This new offense, even if they add the energy of Anthony and Mayer, will still be hacking and flailing. Maybe they can market a a new line of Golden Sombreros in different colors and sell them instead of batting helmets.

They added Bregman this year and he's a lower k% guy. Narvaez k's a lot, but also bb's a lot if you go by his AAA numbers. Not enough of a track record on Campbell/Mayer/Anthony to really know, but they seem to at least be league average k guys. 

Masa needs some at bats...

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If his mechanics are out of sync couldn’t that have something to do with bat speed also?

What mechanics are out of sync, aside from his stance being more extreme? I'm not a hitting coach, but typically when stuff like bat speed and pitching velo is down, there are underlying concerns that are usually health related. 

[Hitch]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

 

Yeah you can see it with the naked eye. It's crazy wide at the moment. 

Best case scenario - he's just somehow wandered into this stance.

Worst case - he's doing it because of his shoulders.

[Old Red]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

What mechanics are out of sync, aside from his stance being more extreme? I'm not a hitting coach, but typically when stuff like bat speed and pitching velo is down, there are underlying concerns that are usually health related. 

I’m not saying he’s not hurting, and I guess just hoping it’s his mechanics, and not his shoulder. I know athletes hide injuries, but until I hear that’s what it is I’m going with it’s not anything physical.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

We’re blaming the hitting coaches for Raffy being NEVER Devers after only 4 games?

There's a little more to it for me.  Our offense was terrible the last 6 weeks of 2024.  And we seem to have become a team that strikes out at a crazy rate.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

There's a little more to it for me.  Our offense was terrible the last 6 weeks of 2024.  And we seem to have become a team that strikes out at a crazy rate.

Yes the K’s, and lack of hitting with runners on base have carried over from last year.

[Maxbialystock]

23 hours ago, notin said:

Can Devers get at least 15 plate appearances before we declare his career over?  Or even diagnose him with shoulder problems?

If he is having shoulder issues from last year, wouldn’t Cora - someone who not only watches every game but can also talk to Devers - have more of a clue about it than any of us?  
 

While it’s possible Devers is having physical issues, it’s also possible he’s just not adjusting as well to being a full time DH.  Or it could be any other number of reasons.  But since it’s not even diagnosed as a shoulder issue, calling it a “career-threatening shoulder issue” right now is a whole new level of premature…

I live in the present, game to game, so my view is that he has hurt this team in the first four games.  And I really don't care whether it's his shoulder, his truncated spring training, or that big wad he chews at the plate.  Do I need add he is paid an enormous salary?

I also note, however, that Duran, Bregman, Story, Casas, Wong, and Rafaela are doing their level best to cover for Devers' lousy hitting because they ain't doing much better.  After 4 games rookie Campbell and 164 total games Abreu together have 26 total bases and the entire rest of the Sox team has 14.  

 

 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I live in the present, game to game, so my view is that he has hurt this team in the first four games.  And I really don't care whether it's his shoulder, his truncated spring training, or that big wad he chews at the plate.  Do I need add he is paid an enormous salary?

I also note, however, that Duran, Bregman, Story, Casas, Wong, and Rafaela are doing their level best to cover for Devers' lousy hitting because they ain't doing much better.  After 4 games rookie Campbell and 164 total games Abreu together have 26 total bases and the entire rest of the Sox team has 14.  

 

 

Well said Max like only Max can.👍

[Hitch]

10 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I live in the present, game to game... 

 

 

Which is how you go from "this guy sucks" to "he's carrying the offence on his own" to "this guy sucks - TRADE HIM" in a 2 to 3 week spell. 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Which is how you go from "this guy sucks" to "he's carrying the offence on his own" to "this guy sucks - TRADE HIM" in a 2 to 3 week spell. 

Like I said like only Max can

 

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I live in the present, game to game, so my view is that he has hurt this team in the first four games.  And I really don't care whether it's his shoulder, his truncated spring training, or that big wad he chews at the plate.  Do I need add he is paid an enormous salary?

I also note, however, that Duran, Bregman, Story, Casas, Wong, and Rafaela are doing their level best to cover for Devers' lousy hitting because they ain't doing much better.  After 4 games rookie Campbell and 164 total games Abreu together have 26 total bases and the entire rest of the Sox team has 14.  

Bregman is another SSS alert

xBA 307, xSLG 578, xWOBACON 486, Launch Angle - Sweet Spot % 46.2, exit velo 95.9, hard hit 53.8%

He's looked fine to me.

[Nick]

I am little frustrated but there are many good signs for this team.

Our pitching has been more than adequate.

We have a true ace in Crochet. Houck pitched better than he had in spring. Buehler is simply a professional. Excited for Richard Fitts.

With the addition of Whitlock, our bullpen appears to be decent.

Cora made great call on Campbell. I think we've found our 2B. If there's an opening in OF, he can fill it. 

We don't have to panic if Story goes down. Or say Duran. We have Mayer that can step in to play 2B and Campbell can move out to left. 

I think we're capable of going on winning streaks. Obviously for that to happen, Duran, Devers, Story and Casas have to hit. That's too many black holes at the top of the lineup.

 

 

[mvp 78]

Spencer Strider looked lights out in ST, but Atlanta went slow with him and he started the season in AAA. Seems like the obvious thing should have been to have Masa in MLB in March and Devers in AAA until he was ready. 

Maybe even more obvious that the Sox have NEFARIOUS reasons to put Masa in AAA.

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Spencer Strider looked lights out in ST, but Atlanta went slow with him and he started the season in AAA. Seems like the obvious thing should have been to have Masa in MLB in March and Devers in AAA until he was ready. 

Maybe even more obvious that the Sox have NEFARIOUS reasons to put Masa in AAA.

Yeah, it seems like the team is just as confused about what's going on with Devers as we are.

[moonslav59]

15 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He's actually had more like 25 horrible games in a row counting the end of last year.  And the reason that last year's games are also relevant is that we don't really know if the problems that existed then still exist or not.         

Even 25 games is a rather small sample size, but I do share your concern that something is still wrong.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, it seems like the team is just as confused about what's going on with Devers as we are.

Typical post Theo/Tito Red Sox TBH.

[moonslav59]

I know C ampbell's success has nothing to do with Anthony and Mayer, but I do wonder what those two might be doing in the bigs, right now.

I don't see an easy guy to bench for Mayer.

I do think we could play Anthony over Rafaela, but I do not think Sox management wants to bench him. I see an Abreu-Refsnyder platoon in RF, so Rafaela would not even get to platoon. Anthony would play LF (maybe RF in Fenway) and Duran in CF.

I doubt we make this call, so early, but I dom wonder if we are missing out on something very special  bby holding off their promotions.

[Nick]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Even 25 games is a rather small sample size, but I do share your concern that something is still wrong.

If you go back to 8/2/24, Devers is 33-174, .190 (est). with 59 k's and 24 BB with only 4 HR (all in August).

He should be batting 9th until he figures it out.

[Nick]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I know C ampbell's success has nothing to do with Anthony and Mayer, but I do wonder what those two might be doing in the bigs, right now.

I don't see an easy guy to bench for Mayer.

I do think we could play Anthony over Rafaela, but I do not think Sox management wants to bench him. I see an Abreu-Refsnyder platoon in RF, so Rafaela would not even get to platoon. Anthony would play LF (maybe RF in Fenway) and Duran in CF.

I doubt we make this call, so early, but I dom wonder if we are missing out on something very special  bby holding off their promotions.

Refsnyder can platoon with Devers. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I know C ampbell's success has nothing to do with Anthony and Mayer, but I do wonder what those two might be doing in the bigs, right now.

I don't see an easy guy to bench for Mayer.

I do think we could play Anthony over Rafaela, but I do not think Sox management wants to bench him. I see an Abreu-Refsnyder platoon in RF, so Rafaela would not even get to platoon. Anthony would play LF (maybe RF in Fenway) and Duran in CF.

I doubt we make this call, so early, but I dom wonder if we are missing out on something very special  bby holding off their promotions.

Mayer has a 444 OPS in AAA. He's been awful. Maybe need to send him back to AA! 😎

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Nick said:

If you go back to 8/2/24, Devers is 33-174, .190 (est). with 59 k's and 24 BB with only 4 HR (all in August).

He should be batting 9th until he figures it out.

I wouldn't want him on 1b when Duran gets a knock. Maybe hit him 6th? Just swap him and Wilyer in the lineup for now? 

[Nick]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I wouldn't want him on 1b when Duran gets a knock. Maybe hit him 6th? Just swap him and Wilyer in the lineup for now? 

Sounds much better.......I am just flabbergasted by his inability to make a contact. I bet there's a player in mlb that won't have as many swing and misses in entire April as Devers after 4 games. Ugh

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Nick said:

If you go back to 8/2/24, Devers is 33-174, .190 (est). with 59 k's and 24 BB with only 4 HR (all in August).

He should be batting 9th until he figures it out.

From 8/3 to 8/18, he hit .771, so I'm not sure I'd include those dates that were dragged down by later numbers.

It's really about 25 games to end 2024, while playing hurt and 4 games to start this year. If you want to count ST'ing, fine. He has looked lost. I don't disagree, but I'm not sure batting him 9th is the best idea. Maybe give him a day off and bat him 6th for a while- maybe 7th vs lefties.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer has a 444 OPS in AAA. He's been awful. Maybe need to send him back to AA! 😎

LOL.