Article: The Red Sox Need To Extend Garrett Crochet Now

[Alex Mayes]

Garrett Crochet has set a deadline to get an extension done. The Red Sox should make sure they meet it.

Last week, Garrett Crochet sat down with Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Naturally, the topic of a contract extension with the Red Sox came up. There has been hope amongst the fan base that the front office would lock Crochet into a long-term extension at some point during 2025, but Crochet has now officially set a hard deadline for those negotiations: the beginning of the season.

“For me personally, once the season starts, I would like for whatever conversations are currently being had to be placed on the back burner until the following offseason,” Crochet said. Crochet had also told MassLive’s Chris Cotillo saying that he wouldn’t mind playing out 2025 before signing an extension: “I think that the long-term security is definitely something attractive. As players, we like to look out for our family first. But with last year being my first taste of starting, part of me also wants to see what I could do with the full season of innings workload.”

This mentality makes sense. If Crochet becomes the Cy Young-caliber pitcher that so many expect him to be, signing a deal before the 2025 season likely leaves a lot of money on the table. On the other hand, if Crochet doesn’t live up to the hype (or, more likely, gets injured again), his market will plummet he will end up signing a deal worth far less than he would have had before the season gets going. The Red Sox hope that rather than betting on himself, Crochet will prefer the security of a team-friendly extension. The question is: Should the Red Sox throw a ton of money at a pitcher who has only thrown 146 big-league innings?

The answer is: Absolutely.

The Red Sox traded for Crochet to anchor their rotation. They gave up two top-50 prospects, Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery, to bring him into the fold. Extending him for at least the next five years is the only available option. You can’t give up such valuable prospects for a two-year rental. The possibility of an extension was part of the reason the price was so high in the first place. If the Red Sox hadn't thought that Crochet would turn in an ace-caliber performance in 2025, they wouldn't have made the deal. And if they believe that, then they almost certainly believe that his asking price will be much higher after the season than before it. Further, Crochet has done nothing to dissuade them so far, making three scoreless starts, going 6 1/3 innings and striking out an absurd 50% of the batters he's faced. The Red Sox will pay Crochet $3.8 million for the 2025 season, just shy of $1 million over his expected arbitration salary. They likely overpaid both to keep him happy and to signal to him that they are serious about keeping him around long-term and will pay the money necessary to do so.

Crochet is only 25 years old. He’s just now entering the prime of his career. He projects to be your playoff starter caliber starter for the next handful of years. Why not build around a core of Crochet, Tanner Houck, and Brayan Bello? The Red Sox have gone for it in a sense this offseason. They signed several solid players and a genuine star in Alex Bregman, but nearly everyone is on a one-year deal, and Bregman can opt out after this season or the next. Clearly, the front office is determined to avoid long-term contracts that could weigh them down in the future. Even so, Crochet is young and appears set to be one of the game's great pitchers. Despite the injury risk, it's hard to find a surer thing these days. The front office proved that it is willing to spend, but keeping Crochet could give the young core enough time to blossom into a World Series winner.

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[moonslav59]

I agree. Crochet needs to be extended. What we gave up for just 2 years, seems like a big overpay.

[Hugh2]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree. Crochet needs to be extended. What we gave up for just 2 years, seems like a big overpay.

That's the way the game is played. 

A bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush, but it the open market of MLB baseball a high end talent like crochet is worth 3 birds in the bush. 

If all the prospects pan out, or even just two hit their ceiling it's going to look like the Sox got fleeced.  But for a point of reference in Yoan Moncada, Luis Basabe and Michael Kopech all hit their ceiling that would have looked like an awful trade on our part, but in the end you don't complain if the guy you got does what he's supposed to do. 

In a fair trade, it hurts both sides, both sides have to feel like they're winning the trade. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That's the way the game is played. 

A bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush, but it the open market of MLB baseball a high end talent like crochet is worth 3 birds in the bush. 

If all the prospects pan out, or even just two hit their ceiling it's going to look like the Sox got fleeced.  But for a point of reference in Yoan Moncada, Luis Basabe and Michael Kopech all hit their ceiling that would have looked like an awful trade on our part, but in the end you don't complain if the guy you got does what he's supposed to do. 

In a fair trade, it hurts both sides, both sides have to feel like they're winning the trade. 

Very true.

I will add that the Sale trade was for 3 years of control vs 2 for Crochet, but the prospects traded were ranked by soxprospects,com as...

1. Moncada

5. Kopech

7. Basabe

NR Victor Diaz

The Crochet deal:

4. Teel

5. Montgomery

8. Meidroth

18. Wikelman

Both trades were monumental.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

This makes all the sense in the world. The Sox have gobs and gobs of young position players but few starters and none who profile at the level of Crochet. Lock him up.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Don't expect Crochet or his agent to agree to any team-friendly deal. They both know what a guy of his caliber at his age is worth.

Put it this way: the main reason Yamamoto got $300 million is because he was 25. And last year, in their first as MLB starting pitchers, Crochet was better. With LA and Chicago treating each gingerly, trying to protect their arms (and in Crochet's case, his value), Garrett had 4.1 WAR, while Yama had 1.7 WAR.

The Red Sox know Crochet is worth market value. They didn't give up such a haul for just two years of an ace. 

But don't be surprised if they lowball him, and act like he should feel privileged to play for such a storied franchise.

After all, even if Crochet is great and unextended the next two years, the smart Sox may think they'll get to pay him less total money when he's 27 with two more seasons of mileage on that arm when they get serious about locking him up longterm.

And then he'll either be a Dodger, Met or Yankee. Or Phillie, if Dombro's still in charge.

 

[Hugh2]

59 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Very true.

I will add that the Sale trade was for 3 years of control vs 2 for Crochet, but the prospects traded were ranked by soxprospects,com as...

1. Moncada

5. Kopech

7. Basabe

NR Victor Diaz

The Crochet deal:

4. Teel

5. Montgomery

8. Meidroth

18. Wikelman

Both trades were monumental.

 

#1 Prospect in baseball holds a lot more value than the #4 prospect in your system. Kopech was also very highly regarded at the time, after he was traded after that year he was a top 25 prospect when the next set of rankings went out. 

This haul might work out better for Chicago, but at the time the Sale deal was a bigger package. 

[Hugh2]

Just now, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Don't expect Crochet or his agent to agree to any team-friendly deal. They both know what a guy of his caliber at his age is worth.

Put it this way: the main reason Yamamoto got $300 million is because he was 25. And last year, in their first as MLB starting pitchers, Crochet was better. With LA and Chicago treating each gingerly, trying to protect their arms (and in Crochet's case, his value), Garrett had 4.1 WAR, while Yama had 1.7 WAR.

The Red Sox know Crochet is worth market value. They didn't give up such a haul for just two years of an ace. 

But don't be surprised if they lowball him, and act like he should feel privileged to play for such a storied franchise.

After all, even if Crochet is great and unextended the next two years, the smart Sox may think they'll get to pay him less total money when he's 27 with two more seasons of mileage on that arm when they get serious about locking him up longterm.

And then he'll either be a Dodger, Met or Yankee. Or Phillie, if Dombro's still in charge.

 

I was going to say an extension might come around the $225 number. 

That seems high, but if it was for 9 years, you'd be paying him 25 million a year until he's 34.  That's a lot of risk.

But he, and the Sox are probably looking at a much smaller window that allows him to hit FA again around 30 years old. Still, If they believe in him I'd take that big swing. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

#1 Prospect in baseball holds a lot more value than the #4 prospect in your system. Kopech was also very highly regarded at the time, after he was traded after that year he was a top 25 prospect when the next set of rankings went out. 

This haul might work out better for Chicago, but at the time the Sale deal was a bigger package. 

I wasn't trying to say the second offer was more, but I will add that Moncada did not have Anthony, Mayer and Campbell in the system with him, either.

The Sale package was and should have been bigger.  He was proven to be the best of the best and had one more year of control.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I was going to say an extension might come around the $225 number. 

Just differ $100M of the deal.

[Hugh2]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Just differ $100M of the deal.

I'm all for defferals, but 25 million a year isn't a budget breaker for an ace.  The years is a lot of risk, but if you sign a premium free agent at 30 you're likely paying him into his late 30's, rather than his mid 30's and getting his prime years. 

Given Crochetts thin track record for starting that may be too much of a risk for some to swallow, but it's the kind I would hope the Sox would make if they really really believed in a guy. 

[Bellhorn04]

My suggested offers to Crochet were largely rejected by Talksox intelligentsia as being too much.    

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

My suggested offers to Crochet were largely rejected by Talksox intelligentsia as being too much.    

I have no intel and I'm not a gent, but as I said yesterday, if the Red Sox want Crochet longterm, they need to be willing to pay market value.

The main question is when: when he's 25, 26 or 27? 

Question for number crunchers weighing variables like possible All-Star appearances and Cy Young votes: at which age will a Crochet contract be the most expensive, and which will be the least expensive?

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

My suggested offers to Crochet were largely rejected by Talksox intelligentsia as being too much.    

Mine as well. This extension won't come cheap. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm all for defferals, but 25 million a year isn't a budget breaker for an ace.  The years is a lot of risk, but if you sign a premium free agent at 30 you're likely paying him into his late 30's, rather than his mid 30's and getting his prime years. 

Given Crochetts thin track record for starting that may be too much of a risk for some to swallow, but it's the kind I would hope the Sox would make if they really really believed in a guy. 

I hope we roll the dice based on his age and not his injury and lack of a long durable season on record.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I hope we roll the dice based on his age and not his injury and lack of a long durable season on record.

It should be a combination of all 3 IMO. To leave out 2?🙈🤭

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 3/11/2025 at 11:54 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Don't expect Crochet or his agent to agree to any team-friendly deal. They both know what a guy of his caliber at his age is worth.

I think you need to lock him up now or he goes to free agency. Any discount you get in a Crochet extension ticks away with each passing day. By the time you get to next offseason, you have a Corbin Burnes situation where he's just going to let it ride to free agency.

Given Crochet's injury history and lack of starting experience, he *should* be willing to sacrifice a few years of FA for a payday today. It's risk mitigation for a pitcher in today's game. A year from now, that's less likely.