Article: Steamer’s New Splits Projections for the Red Sox Aren’t Pretty

[Bellhorn04]

22 minutes ago, Old Red said:

All I’m saying is the Red Sox have been a 500, or below team the last three years with Raffy. Healthy lineup, and the pitching staff is the big thing to make the Red Sox better in the standings.

WAR, what is it good for.  The simplest way to look at it is that losing Raffy means 4-5 wins down the tubes.

[mvp 78]

32 minutes ago, Old Red said:

All I’m saying is the Red Sox have been a 500, or below team the last three years with Raffy. Healthy lineup, and the pitching staff is the big thing to make the Red Sox better in the standings.

They were at or below 500 the previous 3 years because of the surrounding cast, not because of Raffy. They should be better than 500 this year. If Raffy is hurt, they won't be. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

WAR, what is it good for.  The simplest way to look at it is that losing Raffy means 4-5 wins down the tubes.

Right. I have them at 85 wins or so. Without Raffy, or with a reduced Raffy, this is a below 500 team.

[notin]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Unless Lynn and Rice step into the void. 🙂

Great.  Two men in their 70’s ought to help this team.

The modern version is Kristian and Roman.  No lions…

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Unless Lynn and Rice step into the void. 🙂

They are a couple of super-duper wild cards.

They could step in and hit the ground running, or take a while to adjust. Maybe one or both never amount to much, but these two show a lot of potential. It's been a half century since Lynn and Rice.

Mayer might be top 10 or 15, if he could stay healthy.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They are a couple of super-duper wild cards.

They could step in and hit the ground running, or take a while to adjust. Maybe one or both never amount to much, but these two show a lot of potential. It's been a half century since Lynn and Rice.

Mayer might be top 10 or 15, if he could stay healthy.

Mookie hit the ground running and never stopped. Devers and Xander struggled in their first full seasons. JBJ never got to the offensive heights that were projected (Griffey Sr comp). Beni started off strong and then lost it. Hard to say what this group will do. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Mookie hit the ground running and never stopped. Devers and Xander struggled in their first full seasons. JBJ never got to the offensive heights that were projected (Griffey Sr comp). Beni started off strong and then lost it. Hard to say what this group will do. 

Are you counting 2018 as Devers first full season?

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Are you counting 2018 as Devers first full season?

Yes. 120 games is close enough to a full season for me. 

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes. 120 games is close enough to a full season for me. 

Fine. Just checking. (I agree: it should count.)

He did very well the next year, when he played over 150 games (career high OPS)

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Fine. Just checking. (I agree: it should count.)

He did very well the next year, when he played over 150 games (career high OPS)

I'm just saying that they might need a breaking in period. 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Unless Lynn and Rice step into the void. 🙂

Also, happy Birthday to Fred Lynn. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lynnfr01.shtml

[harmony]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

WAR, what is it good for.  The simplest way to look at it is that losing Raffy means 4-5 wins down the tubes.

That assumes that Rafael Devers' replacements would total 0 WAR.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/rafael-devers/17350/stats?position=3B#zips-3-year-projections

Devers is a solid baseball player who ranks 28th among all position players in WAR over the past three seasons:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2024

Devers easily leads the Red Sox in WAR over that three-year period.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Great.  Two men in their 70’s ought to help this team.

The modern version is Kristian and Roman.  No lions…

... but the debauchery!

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, harmony said:

That assumes that Rafael Devers' replacements would total 0 WAR.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/rafael-devers/17350/stats?position=3B#zips-3-year-projections

Devers is a solid baseball player who ranks 28th among all position players in WAR over the past three seasons:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2024

Devers easily leads the Red Sox in WAR over that three-year period.

It would be Vaughn Grissom IMO. ZiPS has him at about a 2 WAR pace if Devers is out for the year. That's an overestimate IMO. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm just saying that they might need a breaking in period. 

Of course. That is very common.

[Old Red]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It would be Vaughn Grissom IMO. ZiPS has him at about a 2 WAR pace if Devers is out for the year. That's an overestimate IMO. 

If Grissom can’t win the 2B job unless Campbell breaks through I don’t see how he would be Raffy’s replacement.

[Bellhorn04]

12 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If Grissom can’t win the 2B job unless Campbell breaks through I don’t see how he would be Raffy’s replacement.

He'd be one of the options.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He'd be one of the options.

Likely yes, but not a good one. The Red Sox have plenty of so called IF depth, but how much of it is good ones?

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Likely yes, but not a good one. The Red Sox have plenty of so called IF depth, but how much of it is good ones?

We have a few decent short term fill-ins.  But I think the more they play the less you'd like 'em.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We have a few decent short term fill-ins.  But I think the more they play the less you'd like 'em.

Short term yes, but 2B was as a revolving door last year as was SS at times.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Short term yes, but 2B was as a revolving door last year as was SS at times.

Yes, revolving doors that whacked us in the head a bunch of times.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

If Grissom can’t win the 2B job unless Campbell breaks through I don’t see how he would be Raffy’s replacement.

Grissom is a bad 2b. He's probably a better fit at 3b. With Raffy going down, I'd rather move Grissom to 3b and play Campbell at 2b where Campbell has played since college

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Grissom is a bad 2b. He's probably a better fit at 3b. With Raffy going down, I'd rather move Grissom to 3b and play Campbell at 2b where Campbell has played since college

Grissom was a bad SS, and Grissom is a bad 2B, and most likely would be a bad 3B. The Braves had plans to try him in the OF. Hopefully Raffy doesn’t go down, and we don’t have to find out.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Old Red said:

Grissom was a bad SS, and Grissom is a bad 2B, and most likely would be a bad 3B. The Braves had plans to try him in the OF. Hopefully Raffy doesn’t go down, and we don’t have to find out.

I'm not sure I'd want to see Grissom either. I would just rather see Campbell at 2b than Grissom based on DEFENSE and then have the leftovers figure out 3b. Romy vs LHP and Grissom vs RHP since Romy has a huge platoon split and Grissom doesn't. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

If Grissom can’t win the 2B job unless Campbell breaks through I don’t see how he would be Raffy’s replacement.

I don't see Grissom ever playing 3B, even with an injury.

Campbell might, since he'd probably be better on D than Grissom, DHam or Mayer/Story. Romy might be okay on D at 3B, but he's not a full season guy, there.