Red Sox Video
Here at Talk Sox, we have been writing for months about how the Red Sox need to balance their lineup with a right-handed hitter. We were writing about it before Tyler O’Neill left, and we’re still writing about it now that he’s an Oriole. If you Google the phrase “right-handed power,” the first thing you see is – well, actually the first thing you see is some nonsensical AI garbage – but the point is, we’ve been writing about this a lot. A search on our site makes that very clear:
I have written some of those articles myself, but I’m going to let you on a little secret: I’ve never been all that concerned about the handedness issue. Yes, the Red Sox lineup is overwhelmingly left-handed and yes, it would be great to balance it out some. But even with a lineup this lopsided, I think the goal should simply be to get good hitters in the lineup and figure out the rest later. I’ve never been on board with proposals to trade Masataka Yoshida, Triston Casas, or Wilyer Abreu just for the sake of balance. I've been more focused on the holes in the bullpen, second base, and catcher.
So that’s my secret. Or at least, it was my secret. On Tuesday, FanGraphs creator David Appleman announced a slew of new features for FanGraphs members. All of the features were focused on the projection model Steamer, and the one that caught my eye first allows you to look up projections for every player based on platoon splits. Naturally, after spending so much time on this issue, I bee-lined for Boston’s projections against left-handed pitching. They're staggering.
Take a moment to think about which Red Sox player you think will put up the best numbers against left-handed pitchers next season. Maybe think up your top three. Got them?
I’m doing this after the fact, but if I had to guess, maybe I would have have said Rafael Devers, Casas, and Trevor Story. I would have been wrong on all counts. In 2025, Steamer projects that the best hitter on the Red Sox against left-handed pitching will be Kristian Campbell, with a 122 wRC+. That’s right, Campbell, who has yet to make his big-league debut, and who has just 85 plate appearances at Triple A, is projected to be Boston’s best weapon against lefties. He ranks first on the Red Sox, and 66th across the entire league, which is to say that the Red Sox don’t have a single player in the top 60. They only have three in the top 200; you would expect the average team to have six or seven.
Behind Campbell, the second and third spots belong to Rob Refsnyder (120) and Vaughn Grissom (109). Those are the only players on the roster whom Steamer projects to be solidly above average against lefties. Devers, Casas, and Yoshida are all projected to be right around league-average. Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela are projected to be terrible, but still better than they were last season, because that's how regression to the mean works. Jarren Duran is projected to more or less repeat the 86 wRC+ he put up in 2024. Trevor Story is projected to be nearly as bad a Duran, but that’s mostly because at this point, the projection systems don’t believe in him regardless of the handedness of the pitcher.
These are only projections, and we shouldn’t take them too seriously. After all, the Red Sox were right in the middle of the pack against lefties with a 101 wRC+ last season, and the only hitters they lost were O’Neill and Danny Jansen, who combined for fewer than 600 PAs. Moreover, the Red Sox project to be great against right-handed pitchers again. All the same, these are some truly terrible numbers. I might have to rethink my stance.
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