Article: For the Red Sox, One-Year Deals Are the Order of the Day

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

He's a very unexciting option, but there isn't much left at this point. 

6 bWAR in the past 3 years.  He’s worth a shot…

[notin]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I disagree.  Jansen and Robertson would both move the needle.  I'll assume that Jansen is out of the picture.  But Robertson pitched 72 innings last year with a 1.9 fWAR and a 1.7 bWAR.  Works for me.

Robertson has quietly been hanging in there with Tanner Scott when it comes to recent effectiveness.

 

He does turn 40 soon, however.  The clock is ticking…

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

6 bWAR in the past 3 years.  He’s worth a shot…

His Statcast page looks pretty good for '24. He's the only guy that is still available that looks like a definitely upgrade for the pen. 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Robertson has quietly been hanging in there with Tanner Scott when it comes to recent effectiveness.

 

He does turn 40 soon, however.  The clock is ticking…

Age is the main reason he's bounced from team to team to team in the past several years. He can still get batters out... for now. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I disagree.  Jansen and Robertson would both move the needle.  I'll assume that Jansen is out of the picture.  But Robertson pitched 72 innings last year with a 1.9 fWAR and a 1.7 bWAR.  Works for me.

I see both declining but with hopes for one more good year.

Robertson had a very nice 2024, but he dropped about 90 points off his FIP from '22 and '23. His K/BB ratio went up like a 26 year old. I just have serious doubts about a repeat. I'd rather have him than Wilson and maybe 2-3 other in the pen, but I'd have him as our 2nd to 4th pen arm, but could end up our #2 or #8.

I'd make Jansen the closer, knowing he could easily lose the job by May.

I'd take em both, but I doubt they'd make a big difference.

[a700hitter]

But not for Scherzer.  LOL!

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I see both declining but with hopes for one more good year.

Robertson had a very nice 2024, but he dropped about 90 points off his FIP from '22 and '23. His K/BB ratio went up like a 26 year old. I just have serious doubts about a repeat. I'd rather have him than Wilson and maybe 2-3 other in the pen, but I'd have him as our 5th pen arm.

5th pen arm?  Robertson has been excellent the last 3 years.  Compare him to any of our other relievers over that span.

We're talking a one year deal.

Like I say, the Sox cheapness is warping our thinking.  

 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

5th pen arm?  Robertson has been excellent the last 3 years.  Compare him to any of our other relievers over that span.

We're talking a one year deal.

Like I say, the Sox cheapness is warping our thinking.  

 

 

20 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

5th pen arm?  Robertson has been excellent the last 3 years.  Compare him to any of our other relievers over that span.

We're talking a one year deal.

Like I say, the Sox cheapness is warping our thinking.  

 

I changed Robertson to 2nd to 4th.

I also said, I'd "take them both."

I just don't see either making a BIG difference. They might, so why not?

I wanted better, but would settle on either or both.

[Bellhorn04]

A good late inning reliever can save you a few more games.  Look at the leads we blew last year.  That's a difference maker.

 

[Bellhorn04]

The way I see it, a good reliever is almost automatically a difference maker.  He'll be in dozens of high leverage situations.

[Bellhorn04]

Of course I realize this talk is all in vain and they're likely done with the pen, possibly done, period.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The way I see it, a good reliever is almost automatically a difference maker.  He'll be in dozens of high leverage situations.

Agreed. I saw Robertson as okay in '22 and '23, maybe a little better than okay, and he was really good in '24.

My issue is not knowing if he will be "good" or not in '25. We have 15-20 RP'ers with various levels of promise. Sure, most do not have as much as Robertson or Jansen, but I wanted a lock down closer.

Again, I'd settle on either or both, and maybe they cna move the needle more than I expect they will.

Some notable fWAR seasons from the pen since 2021;

1.9 Robertson '24 (1.2 in '23)

1.8 Jansen '21 (1.4 in '24)

1.8 Schreiber '22

1.7 Chapman '23

1.6 Whitlock '21

1.5 Slaten '24, Martin '23

1.4 Crochet '21 & Fulmer '21

1.3 Barnes '21

Trades?

2.3 M Miller '24

2.3 Bednard '23 (1.4 '22)

2.2 & 2.0 Helsley '24 & '22 (1.5 in '23)

 

 

[Randy Red Sox]

8 hours ago, notin said:

Soxprospects still expects Boston to add a reliever.  If it’s only a one year deal, David Robertson feels like the most likely candidate.  At his age, he’s not getting multiple years and he is well aware of this…

he is far too costly for JH.  Think someone on a M/L deal

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

he is far too costly for JH.  Think someone on a M/L deal

I feel like we have one more move to do- maybe two. Not major, but something.

I think we sign Grichuk or Laureano.

Maybe we sign a RP'er, but I doubt it is Robertson or Jansen. Maybe Finnegan, Sims or Beeks.

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I feel like we have one more move to do- maybe two. Not major, but something.

I think we sign Grichuk or Laureano.

Maybe we sign a RP'er, but I doubt it is Robertson or Jansen. Maybe Finnegan, Sims or Beeks.

i agree it could be someone like Grichuk providing he would accept something like a 1 yr -3 million deal otherwise they will simply sell us on RR as the RH bat

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i agree it could be someone like Grichuk providing he would accept something like a 1 yr -3 million deal otherwise they will simply sell us on RR as the RH bat

Maybe more like a $4-4.5M/1 deal w bonuses.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I see both declining but with hopes for one more good year.

Robertson had a very nice 2024, but he dropped about 90 points off his FIP from '22 and '23. His K/BB ratio went up like a 26 year old. I just have serious doubts about a repeat. I'd rather have him than Wilson and maybe 2-3 other in the pen, but I'd have him as our 2nd to 4th pen arm, but could end up our #2 or #8.

I'd make Jansen the closer, knowing he could easily lose the job by May.

I'd take em both, but I doubt they'd make a big difference.

Hendriks is much more likely to lose the job than Jansen. 

[mvp 78]

6 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i agree it could be someone like Grichuk providing he would accept something like a 1 yr -3 million deal otherwise they will simply sell us on RR as the RH bat

I think any 1 year deal would be fine for Grichuk up to about 8M. I don't think he's going to take less than 6 since he turned a 6M mutual option down this offseason. Expecting a 3M is silly season. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Hendriks is much more likely to lose the job than Jansen. 

Agreed, and if we had both, I'd start the year with Jansen as the closer.

To me, it's a close call between Hendriks and Chapman. I even think Slaten or Whitlock could muscle their way into the closer role.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, and if we had both, I'd start the year with Jansen as the closer.

To me, it's a close call between Hendriks and Chapman. I even think Slaten or Whitlock could muscle their way into the closer role.

I don't want Chapman anywhere near the closer's spot. Maybe a save here or there, but if Hendriks fails I'm going to Slaten. 

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, and if we had both, I'd start the year with Jansen as the closer.

To me, it's a close call between Hendriks and Chapman.

Talent-wise perhaps, health-wise I'd have to go with Jansen.  Hendriks was expected to come back around August last year but couldn't.  That's not especially encouraging.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Opponents know how to keep Robertson out of Boston. All they have to do is offer him a contract for 13 months.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Talent-wise perhaps, health-wise I'd have to go with Jansen.  Hendriks was expected to come back around August last year but couldn't.  That's not especially encouraging.

Also have no idea what his stuff looks like. 

His last outing in 2024 included a 91.6 mph 4 seamer as his fastest pitch. The previous outing was 93.6 mph about a week earlier. He touched 94.5 two days prior to that and 95.6 earlier in the month. His velo just dropped from his initial appearances. This is a guy who AVERAGED 95.5 in '23 and 97+ in '22 and '21 prior to health issues. 

If he can't sustain 95+, he's no longer valuable. 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Opponents know how to keep Robertson out of Boston. All they have to do is offer him a contract for 13 months.

Robertson is his own agent. Maybe he has a weird ask like "only green m&m's in the clubhouse" or something?

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't want Chapman anywhere near the closer's spot. Maybe a save here or there, but if Hendriks fails I'm going to Slaten. 

I don't disagree, but I also do not have high hopes for a guy (Hendriks) who has not pitched since 2022 and turns 36 in a couple weeks.

I like Slaten, too, and I think Whitlock might end up being the best of the 4.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't disagree, but I also do not have high hopes for a guy (Hendriks) who has not pitched since 2022 and turns 36 in a couple weeks.

I like Slaten, too, and I think Whitlock might end up being the best of the 4.

Whitlock shouldn't be a one inning guy. He should be used like 2021. 

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Whitlock shouldn't be a one inning guy. He should be used like 2021. 

Yes, in a perfect world Garrett will revisit 2021.

I certainly like that he acknowledged he's a bullpen guy from here on out.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yes, in a perfect world Garrett will revisit 2021.

I certainly like that he acknowledged he's a bullpen guy from here on out.

I didn't see that. Sounds good to me. 

[Bellhorn04]

Garrett Whitlock is actually one of the guys that keeps me interested in this team.  He was a joy to watch in 2021.  And being stolen from the Yanks always helps!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Whitlock shouldn't be a one inning guy. He should be used like 2021. 

I fully agree, but I think he might end up being our best option to close, especially if Slaten regresses.

There are some closers who go 2 IP, at times. I think Miller did, a few times.

I'd like Whitlock to pitch the 7th and 8th or 8th and 9th in some games- maybe every 3 days.